Friday, September 03, 2010

Tropical Storm Earl Effecting the East Coast of the U.S.A Update 12

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010
 
EARL HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING.  WHILE THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE REMAINS 958 MB...AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST THAT EARL
IS NOW BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF PEAK SFMR VALUES OF AROUND 55 KT AND A 700-MB
FLIGHT LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM OF 67 KT JUST PRIOR TO 0000 UTC.  THE
DEEP CONVECTION WITH EARL IS INCREASINGLY LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION...DUE TO SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR OF
15-20 KT AND DRY AIR ADVECTION SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  EARL WILL BE
CROSSING THE NORTHERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM SOON...AND COLD WATER
AND INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED WEAKENING UNTIL
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEGINS.  GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS AND PHASE
SPACE DIAGRAMS SUGGEST THAT EARL WILL BE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY 24 HOURS...WITH THE TRANSITION COMPLETE IN 36 HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...OR 035 DEGREES
AT 22 KNOTS.  EARL SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE AHEAD OF A LARGE
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  BEYOND THAT
TIME...MUCH OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THAT EARL WILL
TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD AS A DISTINCT CYCLONE THROUGH
72 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING OR BEING ABSORBED.  THE EXTRATROPICAL
PORTION OF THE TRACK IS BASED ON COORDINATION WITH THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER.
 
EARL REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND WILL BRING HIGH WINDS
AND RAINFALL TO MUCH OF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/0300Z 40.0N  69.7W    60 KT
 12HR VT     04/1200Z 43.1N  66.6W    55 KT
 24HR VT     05/0000Z 48.2N  61.6W    45 KT...POST-TROPICAL
 36HR VT     05/1200Z 52.5N  56.5W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48HR VT     06/0000Z 55.5N  54.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72HR VT     07/0000Z 57.0N  57.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96HR VT     08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
NNNN
 
ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER  39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL072010
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010
 
...EARL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND
STRONG WINDS TO PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND ATLANTIC CANADA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.0N 69.7W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND
CAPE COD TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS
VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF WATCH HILL
RHODE ISLAND AND FOR ALL OF LONG ISLAND.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM WESTWARD TO DIGBY
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD...NANTUCKET ISLAND...AND
BLOCK ISLAND
* STONINGTON MAINE TO EASTPORT MAINE
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER EASTWARD TO FORT
LAWRENCE AND FROM SHEDIAC TO TIDNISH
* THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* POINT ESCUMINAC TO SHEDIAC NEW BRUNSWICK
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO CANADA...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA. 
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR...AND A GENERAL
NORTHEASTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...EARL WILL PASS OFFSHORE OF CAPE COD OVERNIGHT AND REACH THE
COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA ON SATURDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.
 
EARL IS A LARGE TROPICAL STORM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INTO THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA FROM RHODE ISLAND TO COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS
TONIGHT.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE WARNING AREA IN
DOWNEAST MAINE EARLY SATURDAY...AND SPREAD INTO THE WARNING AREA IN
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY.
 
STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS COULD RISE BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FROM NEW JERSEY NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD INCLUDING
LONG ISLAND SOUND. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
 
RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.
 
SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NEW JERSEY NORTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.
THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP
CURRENTS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
NNNN
Moncton and Southeast New Brunswick
8:54 PM ADT Friday 03 September 2010
Tropical storm warning for
Moncton and Southeast New Brunswick continued

A tropical storm warning means that sustained gales...Winds of 63 km/h or more...Are expected in the specified areas within 24 hours. By nature a tropical storm also implies the threat of local flooding from heavy rainfall.

At 9:00 PM ADT the centre of hurricane Earl was located about 140 kilometres south southwest of Cape Cod and is moving northeast at 43 km/h. On its current track Earl is forecast to make landfall near Western Nova Scotia or the Fundy coast of New Brunswick Saturday morning.

Strong winds in the Bay of Fundy will result in wind gusts to 90 km/h or more on Saturday.

Heavy rain...Amounting to 40 to 70 millimetres is expected in the south and southeast regions on Saturday as Earl tracks across the Maritimes.  Yarmouth County
9:09 PM ADT Friday 03 September 2010
Tropical storm warning for
Yarmouth County continued

Winds gusts over portions of Southwestern Nova Scotia will likely reach or exceed 100 km/h. Over the remainder of the province winds gusting to at least 90 km/h are likely.

A tropical storm warning means that sustained gales...Winds of 63 km/h or more...Are expected in the specified areas within 24 hours. By nature a tropical storm also implies the threat of local flooding from heavy rainfall.

At 9:00 PM ADT the centre of hurricane Earl was located about 140 kilometres south southwest of Cape Cod and is moving northeast at 43 km/h. On its current track Earl is forecast to make landfall near Western Nova Scotia or the Fundy coast of New Brunswick Saturday morning.

It is likely that portions of southern and Western Nova Scotia will have wind gusts reaching or exceeding 100 km/h....Possibly reaching 130 km/h. Wind gusts reaching 90 km/h or higher are possible elsewhere over the above regions. These strong wind gusts could cause tree branches and limbs to break and some trees to come down. That could result in downed utility lines and related power failures. There could also be some damage to signage..Roofing materials and building cladding.

Heavy rain...Amounting to 40 to 70 millimetres will likely fall over portions of the Maritimes on Saturday as Earl tracks across the region....With southern and Central New Brunswick, Western Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island being the most likely areas to receive these amounts. Over many areas of the Maritimes very heavy downpours are likely...With 25 millimetres or more possible in one hour which could lead to localized flooding and road washouts.

High waves and pounding surf can be expected along south and southeast facing coastlines around portions of the Maritimes with the arrival of Earl. Wave impacts at the coast could lead to some beach erosion and damage to infrastructure.

Higher than normal water levels are possible along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia and over the gulf of st. Lawrence coastlines. However since the tides are low this weekend..The chances of severe storm surge is diminished.

Please refer to the latest Environment Canada forecasts for updated information

Hurricane (category 1) Effecting the East Coast of the U.S.A Update 12

000
WTNT32 KNHC 032340
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  38A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010

...EARL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...RAIN AND WIND SPREADING OVER 
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.1N 70.8W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WOODS HOLE EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM WESTWARD TO DIGBY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EASTWARD
ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH
SHORE
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...
INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO HULL MASSACHUSETTS
* STONINGTON MAINE TO EASTPORT MAINE
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER EASTWARD TO FORT
LAWRENCE AND FROM SHEDIAC TO TIDNISH
* THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* POINT ESCUMINAC TO SHEDIAC NEW BRUNSWICK

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES
...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO CANADA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 39.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.8 WEST.  EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR.  AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL BE VERY NEAR
OR JUST EAST OF CAPE COD LATER TONIGHT AND REACH THE COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  EARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED REMAIN A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS
IT APPROACHES SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. 

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INTO THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA FROM LONG ISLAND TO MASSACHUSETTS THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...MOST OF THE HURRICANE-FORCE
WINDS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OF CAPE COD...HOWEVER ONLY A SMALL
DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING HURRICANE
CONDITIONS TO THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT.  TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE WARNING AREA IN MAINE EARLY SATURDAY
...AND SPREAD ACROSS THE WARNING AREA IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
SATURDAY.

STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS COULD RISE BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FROM NEW JERSEY NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD INCLUDING
LONG ISLAND SOUND. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE FROM THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA TO DELAWARE BAY.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Hurricane (category 1) Effecting the East Coast of the U.S.A Update 11

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010
 
EARL HAS BEEN MOVING OVER COOLER WATER AND WEAKENING. BASED ON THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE DATA...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 70 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH CONTINUED
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED...EARL IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR CAPE COD
AS A HURRICANE WITH A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.
THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT A LARGE PORTION OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS. EARL IS EXPECTED TO REACH CANADA AS A
STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND THEN BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36
HOURS.
 
EARL IS STILL MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 030 DEGREES AT 18
KNOTS...BUT IT SHOULD SOON INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED. THE HURRICANE
HAS ALREADY RECURVED WHILE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. EARL SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS
GENERAL TRACK WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL DISSIPATION
IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/2100Z 38.2N  71.8W    70 KT
 12HR VT     04/0600Z 41.2N  69.2W    60 KT
 24HR VT     04/1800Z 46.5N  64.0W    50 KT
 36HR VT     05/0600Z 51.5N  59.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48HR VT     05/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER  38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL072010
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010
 
...HURRICANE EARL REMAINS LARGE BUT IS LOSING ITS PUNCH...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.2N 71.8W
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES
 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
ALL WARNINGS SOUTH OF SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM CAPE ELIZABETH TO WEST OF STONINGTON
MAINE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
SEVERAL CHANGES TO CANADIAN WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WOODS HOLE EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM WESTWARD TO DIGBY
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EASTWARD
ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH
SHORE
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...
INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO HULL MASSACHUSETTS
* STONINGTON MAINE TO EASTPORT MAINE
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER EASTWARD TO FORT
LAWRENCE AND FROM SHEDIAC TO TIDNISH
* THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* POINT ESCUMINAC TO SHEDIAC NEW BRUNSWICK
 
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 38.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.8 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR. AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL BE VERY NEAR
OR JUST EAST OF CAPE COD LATER TONIGHT AND ON THE COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA ON SATURDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  EARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED
REMAIN A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...ON THE FORECAST TRACK...MOST OF THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OF CAPE COD...HOWEVER ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION
TO THE LEFT WOULD BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA TONIGHT.
 
STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS COULD RISE BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3
FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FROM NEW JERSEY NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD
INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. WATER LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE FROM THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA TO
DELAWARE BAY.
 
RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.
 
SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN

Humidex and Health Advisory Issued for New Brunswick 09-03-2010

OCN14 CWHX 032132
Special weather statement for regions of New Brunswick issued jointly 
by Environment Canada and the New Brunswick department of health at 
6:30PM ADT Friday 3 September 2010.

Humidex and health advisory ended for
Sussex/Kennebecasis Valley and Kings County
St. Stephen and Northern Charlotte County
Fredericton and Southern York County
Oromocto and Sunbury County
Grand Lake and Queens County

Humidex values have dropped below 40 c.

Further details follow in the next regular public forecast.

The New Brunswick department of health advises the following: the 
department of health recommends that you stay in shaded or air 
conditioned areas as much as possible, drink Plenty of water, wear 
light clothing and take breaks often if you are exercising or working 
outdoors.  Consideration should be given to postpone strenuous 
exercise or work until a cooler time of the day.  Organizers of sport 
and recreational activities should build in regular water breaks and 
consider rescheduling activities.  The elderly, babies and young 
children, or people with heart or lung problems are most at risk of 
serious heat-related illness.  People taking medications, especially 
for mental health conditions, should check with their doctor or 
pharmacist to see if they are more at risk from high temperatures.

END/ASPC

Hurricane (category 2) Effecting the East Coast of the U.S.A Update 10

HURRICANE EARL LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
549 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010

...CENTER OF EARL PASSES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE...
COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO EASTPORT ME OUT 25 NM.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS...COASTAL HANCOCK...COASTAL WASHINGTON.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL OF COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO EASTPORT ME OUT
25 NM.

A TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS...INTERIOR HANCOCK...CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON.

ALTHOUGH TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NOT IN EFFECT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK...CENTRAL
PENOBSCOT AND SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT...POSSIBLE IMPACTS FROM RELATED
HAZARDS ARE STILL A CONCERN.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 35.3N...LONGITUDE 74.0W. THIS WAS ABOUT 675 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF STONINGTON ME...OR ABOUT 760 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
EASTPORT ME. STORM MOTION WAS NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 18 MPH. STORM
INTENSITY WAS 105 MPH.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME TO COMPLETE
PREPARATIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY. EVACUATE IF
DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...OR IF YOUR HOME IS
VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR FLOODING. FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...
DOCKS...AND MARINAS...URGENTLY COMPLETE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS
ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...MAKE FINAL PREPARATIONS FOR
SECURING YOUR CRAFT BEFORE LEAVING IT. BE SURE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBLE CLOSURE OF BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS. REGARDING ANY COASTAL
WATERS UNDER A WARNING...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT AND
WELL SECURED. FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...CONTINUE WITH YOUR
PREPARATIONS AND LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS. CLOSELY MONITOR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL STORM
INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...PLEASE
REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR LOCATION
AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
HURRICANE EARL LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
549 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010

...CENTER OF EARL PASSES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE...
COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO EASTPORT ME OUT 25 NM.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS...COASTAL HANCOCK...COASTAL WASHINGTON.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL OF COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO EASTPORT ME OUT
25 NM.

A TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS...INTERIOR HANCOCK...CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON.

ALTHOUGH TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NOT IN EFFECT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK...CENTRAL
PENOBSCOT AND SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT...POSSIBLE IMPACTS FROM RELATED
HAZARDS ARE STILL A CONCERN.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 35.3N...LONGITUDE 74.0W. THIS WAS ABOUT 675 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF STONINGTON ME...OR ABOUT 760 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
EASTPORT ME. STORM MOTION WAS NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 18 MPH. STORM
INTENSITY WAS 105 MPH.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME TO COMPLETE
PREPARATIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY. EVACUATE IF
DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...OR IF YOUR HOME IS
VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR FLOODING. FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...
DOCKS...AND MARINAS...URGENTLY COMPLETE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS
ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...MAKE FINAL PREPARATIONS FOR
SECURING YOUR CRAFT BEFORE LEAVING IT. BE SURE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBLE CLOSURE OF BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS. REGARDING ANY COASTAL
WATERS UNDER A WARNING...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT AND
WELL SECURED. FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...CONTINUE WITH YOUR
PREPARATIONS AND LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS. CLOSELY MONITOR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL STORM
INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...PLEASE
REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR LOCATION
AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN CARIBOU AROUND 11 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

MEZ016-017-032-041000-
/O.CON.KCAR.TI.A.0001.000000T0000Z-100904T2200Z/
INTERIOR HANCOCK-CENTRAL WASHINGTON-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
549 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...

...NEW INFORMATION...
HURRICANE EARL IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
EARL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST REACHING A POSITION OFF
CAPE COD AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THEN REACHING THE WESTERN TIP OF
NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. EARL WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO THE MARITIMES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE...BEFORE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. KEEP INFORMED WHILE LISTENING FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE
BLOWN AROUND. STRONGLY CONSIDER EVACUATING IF YOU LIVE IN A
MOBILE HOME...AND DO SO IF ORDERED BY LOCAL OFFICIALS.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS LOW. ALSO...THE
CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS UP TO 60
PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A SLIGHTLY UPWARD TREND SINCE THE LAST
FORECAST. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY TO BEGIN
TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

...WINDS...
AS HURRICANE EARL MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED HIGH
WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS FROM SATURDAY MORNING TO EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE DAMAGE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE AREA.

...INLAND FLOODING...
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN EARL AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL
STREAMS AND SOME PONDING IN LOW LYING APPEARS POSSIBLE AS A
RESULT OF THE RAIN. HOWEVER...IF A BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN REMAINS
OVER AN AREA LONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL...
MORE SERIOUS FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE.

ANZ081-031430-
GULF OF MAINE TO THE HAGUE LINE
400 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010

...HURRICANE WARNING...

.TODAY...N PORTION...SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT BECOMING E TO SE AND
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT. S PORTION...E TO SE
WINDS 15 TO 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT
BUILDING TO 8 TO 12 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS S. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING.
.TONIGHT...E TO NE WINDS INCREASING TO 35 TO 50 KT...EXCEPT SE
PORTION TO 50 TO 65 KT...EXCEPT TO 80 KT NEAR THE CENTER OF
EARL. SEAS BUILDING TO 12 TO 18 FT...EXCEPT SE PORTION TO 18 TO
28 FT...HIGHEST SE. SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.SAT...SHIFTING WINDS 35 TO 50 KT...EXCEPT FAR E PORTION 50 TO
65 KT EARLY. WINDS THEN DIMINISHING TO W TO SW 20 TO 30 KT LATE.
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 6 TO 11 FT LATE...HIGHEST E. SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ENDING BY AFTERNOON.
.SAT NIGHT...W TO SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 5 TO 8
FT.
.SUN...SW WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4
TO 6 FT.
.MON...SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO
6 FT.
.TUE...WINDS BECOMING NW 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS BECOMING 3 TO 4 FT.
$$

Hurricane (category 2) Effecting the East Coast of the U.S.A Update 9

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  36A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010
 
...HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...WEATHER
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE OUTER BANKS LATER THIS MORNING...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.2N 73.6W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND THE EASTERN
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL
MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EASTWARD
ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH
SHORE
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS...
INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO THE MERRIMACK RIVER
* STONINGTON MAINE EASTWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE
* THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM LISMORE SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO
ECUM SECUM
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER TO WEST OF STONINGTON MAINE
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET ON THE SOUTH
SHORE AND WEST OF PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR ON THE NORTH SHORE
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER EASTWARD TO FORT
LAWRENCE AND FROM TIDNISH WESTWARD TO SHEDIAC
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM NORTHEASTWARD TO POINT TUPPER...AND
EAST OF LISMORE TO POINT TUPPER
* CAPE BRETON ISLAND AND THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 36.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.6 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR.  AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL
WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TODAY...AND WILL
APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  EARL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED REMAIN A LARGE
HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.  DARE COUNTY REGIONAL AIRPORT NORTH CAROLINA JUST
REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 70 MPH...113 KM/HR.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING ALONG THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING.  TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL
LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO MASSACHUSETTS
LATER TODAY...AND SPREAD OVER THE COAST OF MAINE WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA TONIGHT.  HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN MASSACHUSETTS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.
 
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA OVER NORTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS IN THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY.
STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVER MASSACHUSETTS.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...STORM SURGE WILL
RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
 
RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES...WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.  ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND
ACROSS CENTRAL AND COASTAL MAINE.
 
SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY...AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE IN THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS.  THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS
AND RIP CURRENTS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN
ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
500 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010

EARL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...WITH THE EYE BECOMING INDISTINCT
IN BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 955 MB AT ABOUT 05Z.  THE
MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 03Z WERE 118 KT...WHILE THE
MAXIMUM SFMR WINDS NEAR THAT TIME WERE 83 KT.  A BLEND OF THESE
DATA IS USED FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KT.  EARL SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH 36 HR DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  HOWEVER...IT IS STILL
FORECAST TO BE A HURRICANE AS IT PASSES NEAR OR OVER SOUTHEASTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HR...AND TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 72 HR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 015-020 AT ABOUT 16 KT.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES
THAT EARL SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE DURING THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS...AND THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO.  A TURN
MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS POSSIBLE AFTER 36 HR AS EARL
UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE UKMET CONTINUES TO FORECAST
EARL TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR CAPE COD...AND ANY MOTION TO THE LEFT OF
THE FORECAST TRACK COULD ALLOW THIS TO HAPPEN.
 
ALTHOUGH THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE CORE ARE DECREASING...EARL
CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE HURRICANE WITH THE WIND RADII EXPANDED IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT BASED ON ASCAT DATA.  THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0900Z 35.3N  74.0W    90 KT
 12HR VT     03/1800Z 37.8N  72.4W    85 KT
 24HR VT     04/0600Z 41.6N  68.9W    75 KT
 36HR VT     04/1800Z 45.9N  64.3W    55 KT
 48HR VT     05/0600Z 50.7N  60.0W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72HR VT     06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
NNNN

Warnings

Grand Manan and Coastal Charlotte County
4:43 AM ADT Friday 03 September 2010
Rainfall warning for
Grand Manan and Coastal Charlotte County issued

Rain fall amounts of 40 to 70 millimeters can be expected with the passing of hurricane Earl.

This is a warning that significant rainfall is expected in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

At 3AM Friday the centre of hurricane Earl was located about 135 kilometres east southeast of Cape Hatteras and is moving north northeast at 30 km/h. On its current track Earl is forecast to make landfall in the vicinity of Western Nova Scotia or the Fundy coast of New Brunswick early Saturday morning.

Strong winds in the Bay of Fundy could give maximum wind gusts to 90 km/h on Saturday.

Heavy rain...Amounting to 40 to 70 millimetres is expected in the south and southeast regions on Saturday as Earl tracks across the Maritimes.

 8:15 AM ADT Friday 03 September 2010
Wind warning for
Yarmouth County continued

Strong winds with gusts between 90 and a 110 km/h are possible with Earl.

This is a warning that potentially damaging winds are expected. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

At 3 AM this morning the centre of hurricane Earl was located about 135 kilometres east-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina and is moving north-northeast at 30 km/h. On its current track Earl is forecast to make landfall in the vicinity of Western Nova Scotia or the Fundy coast of New Brunswick early Saturday morning.

It is likely that portions of Southwestern Nova Scotia will have wind gusts reaching or exceeding 100 km/h.

Elsewhere along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia...Up as far as the eastern shore...And the Bay of Fundy maximum wind gusts will likely reach 90 km/h.

Heavy rain...Amounting to 40 to 70 millimetres will likely fall over portions of the Maritimes on Saturday as Earl tracks across the region....With southern and Central New Brunswick and Northwestern Prince Edward Island being the most likely areas to receive these amounts. Over many areas of the Maritimes very heavy downpours are likely...With 25 millimetres or more possible in one hour.

Higher than normal water levels are possible along Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia and over the gulf of st. Lawrence coastlines. However since the tidal cycle is not extreme severe storm surge impacts are not as likely as they would be otherwise.

However high waves and pounding surf can be expected along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia with the arrival of Earl.

Please refer to the latest Environment Canada forecasts for updated information.


Yarmouth County
8:15 AM ADT Friday 03 September 2010
Rainfall warning for
Yarmouth County continued

Heavy rainfall accociated with Earl is likely to give amounts above 50 millimetres for the above regions.

This is a warning that significant rainfall is expected. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

At 3 AM this morning the centre of hurricane Earl was located about 135 kilometres east-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina and is moving north-northeast at 30 km/h. On its current track Earl is forecast to make landfall in the vicinity of Western Nova Scotia or the Fundy coast of New Brunswick early Saturday morning.

It is likely that portions of Southwestern Nova Scotia will have wind gusts reaching or exceeding 100 km/h.

Elsewhere along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia...Up as far as the eastern shore...And the Bay of Fundy maximum wind gusts will likely reach 90 km/h.

Heavy rain...Amounting to 40 to 70 millimetres will likely fall over portions of the Maritimes on Saturday as Earl tracks across the region....With southern and Central New Brunswick and Northwestern Prince Edward Island being the most likely areas to receive these amounts. Over many areas of the Maritimes very heavy downpours are likely...With 25 millimetres or more possible in one hour.

Higher than normal water levels are possible along Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia and over the gulf of st. Lawrence coastlines. However since the tidal cycle is not extreme severe storm surge impacts are not as likely as they would be otherwise.

However high waves and pounding surf can be expected along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia with the arrival of Earl.

Please refer to the latest Environment Canada forecasts for updated information.

Fourth day of the Great Heatwave of Late August/Early September 2010

Historical Data
 
Saint Stephen
  • Yesterday
  •  
  • Max:
  • 34.7°C
  • Min:
  • 18.2°C
  • Precip:
  • 0.6 mm
  •  
  • Normals
  •  
  • Max:
  • 22°C
  • Min:
  • 8°C
  •  
  • Today
  •  
  • Sunrise:
  • 6:53
  • Sunset:
  • 20:04
  • Historical Data
     
    Fredericton
  • Yesterday
  •  
  • Max:
  • 33.4°C
  • Min:
  • 19.5°C
  • Precip:
  • 0.0 mm
  •  
  • Normals
  •  
  • Max:
  • 22°C
  • Min:
  • 8°C
  •  
  • Today
  •  
  • Sunrise:
  • 6:49
  • Sunset:
  • 20:03
  • Historical Data
     
    Moncton
  • Yesterday
  •  
  • Max:
  • 34.0°C
  • Min:
  • 20.4°C
  • Precip:
  • 0.0 mm
  •  
  • Normals
  •  
  • Max:
  • 21°C
  • Min:
  • 10°C
  •  
  • Today
  •  
  • Sunrise:
  • 6:42
  • Sunset:
  • 19:55