000
FGUS71 KCAR 291707
ESFCAR
MEC003-009-019-021-025-029-071715-
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1207 PM EST Thu Feb 29 2024
...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN, CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST MAINE...
This is the fifth Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook for 2024,
issued by the National Weather Service in Caribou, Maine. This
outlook is for Northern, Central, and Downeast Maine for the two
week period of February 29th through March 14th, 2024.
The potential for ice jam flooding is Normal across Northern Maine
and the Central Highlands river basins. Ice jam flooding for
Downeast Maine is Below Normal. The potential for open water
flooding in all of Eastern & Northern Maine is Below Normal.
...NORTHERN BASINS...
SNOW DEPTH: Very Below Normal. Trace to 4" snow depth East with
3-9" in the North Woods west of Route 11.
WATER EQUIVALENT: Very Below Normal. Generally a Trace to 2" with
the most in the North Woods.
STREAM FLOWS: Normal
RIVER ICE: St. John, Allagash, Aroostook Rivers are 80% frozen.
Other smaller rivers are 65% frozen. Ice thickness is a few inches
to near 15-20" above the Dickey Bridge on the St. John. Aroostook
River ice thickness is generally 10-15" but several locations are
less. All rivers have many open leads, bank rot & surface ice
rot.
...CENTRAL HIGHLAND BASINS...
SNOW DEPTH: Very Below Normal. Trace to 1" in eastern areas,
3-10" remains in the Baxter Region, North Woods and Moosehead
Region. 19" reported at Chimney Pond (~2930ft elevation).
WATER EQUIVALENT: Trace up to 4". Well Below Normal.
STREAM FLOWS: Normal.
RIVER ICE: Northern stretches of the Penobscot River is 75% ice
covered. 90-95% of the Mattawamkeag is frozen. Central to Southern
stretches of the Penobscot are 35-45% covered. Ice is being held
up and breaking up above dams. Ice has broken up in some areas
thanks to rising natural flows from recent melt.
...DOWNEAST BASINS...
SNOW DEPTH: Well Below Normal. 0-0.5 inch.
WATER EQUIVALENT: Well Below Normal. Zero-Trace
STREAM FLOWS: Normal
RIVER ICE: Above dams the rivers are generally 65% covered in
mainly sheet or jumbled frazil ice. Many areas of open water with
recent warm weather.
...ICE THICKNESS...
Ice thickness is extremely variable this year with recent warm
spells posing a serious risk to life. Do not venture onto the ice
unless you know the exact thickness. For more information on ice
safety visit the Maine Warden Service website
www.maine.gov/ifw/fishing- boating/fishing/ice-safety-tips.html
For the 2024 season the Winter/Spring Flood Outlook (ESF) will be
in graphical format on our website
www.weather.gov/car/springfloodoutlook
...CLIMATE GUIDANCE FROM NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...
We are currently under a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
Index and negative Pacific North America (PNA) pattern. With a
positive NAO pattern...we typically see Arctic air intrusions
short lived as the lack of upper-level blocking downstream in the
North Atlantic allows cold air to quickly translate east. This is
exactly what we expect to happen over the next few days.
And...with a negative PNA pattern...southeastern United States
upper level ridging typically allows for a storm track near or
west of New England which keeps the region mostly on the warm side
of systems. Again...this is textbook to what we are seeing today
with a large Low passing through southeast Canada with warm
southerly flow ahead of it.
There are signs that both climate indices will trend back towards
neutral as we move through the first 10 days of March but there are
no signs right now of any extended cold. In fact...NOAA`s
official 8 to 14 day outlook for 6 to 12 March 2024 calls for
temperatures to very likely be above normal across all of the
northeastern United States. Precipitation for the same time period
is leaning above normal as well. If this forecast holds true...we
may continue to eradicate the already depleted snowpack and rot
the ice in place on area rivers and streams.
$$
Sinko
