Friday, May 08, 2015

My 2015 North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Seasonal (June - November) Outlook

Based upon pre-seasonal factors and season forecast models I predict eight tropical storms, four of which will attain hurricane status, none of which will become major hurricanes.

Area of greatest threat will by the Eastern Seaboard with areas of extreme landfall risks at; Cape Hatteras, Long Island through Cape Cod, Nova Scotia, Bermuda and the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland. The Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean will face below average landfall risks this season, mitigating factors for these areas include; a strong Subtropical Jetstream and below normal rainfall in the Caribbean Region (please see my combined level flow forecast for further details).

Landfall Risk Map Color Key -

Yellow: Low Risk
Orange: Moderate Risk (average)
Red: High Risk (above average)
Purple: Extreme Risk (much above average)

Special thanks to for the map templates.

****** DISCLAIMER - I am a knowledgeable amateur meteorologist. I maintain this blog for entertainment and educational purposes only. When in doubt please consult your local governmental weather agencies. The individuals employed by such organizations are highly trained professionals, often with years of invaluable forecasting expertise and access to state of the art weather prediction tools. They know what they are doing folks. Any decisions concerning lives and property should be made based upon their insights, rather than mine. *******