Hurricane Laura, Category 4, Nears Landfall In Louisiana - Could Affect The Region This Weekend

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WTNT43 KNHC 270255

TCDAT3

Hurricane Laura Discussion Number  29

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132020

1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

Extremely dangerous Laura has the signature of a classic hurricane

on satellite images, with a well-defined eye surrounded by very

deep convection.  There is little evidence of shear, and the

upper-level outflow pattern is extremely well defined, while the

cyclone is over sea surface temperatures near 30 deg C.

Observations from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter

aircraft show that Laura continued to strengthen during the

evening.  Using a blend of adjusted flight-level and SFMR-observed 

surface winds, the intensity estimate is 130 kt for this advisory.  

Since there is now little time remaining for the system over water, 

no significant change in intensity is anticipated until the center 

crosses the coastline.  Laura will weaken rapidly after it begins 

to move over land, but destructive winds should spread well inland, 

more than 100 miles, along its path.  Later in the forecast period, 

the ECMWF and U.K. Met. Office global models indicate some 

baroclinic re-intensification as the remnants of Laura move off the 

U.S. East coast, and this is reflected in the NHC forecast.

Laura has begun to turn northward as it moves around the western

side of a subtropical high pressure area, and the initial motion is

about 340/13 kt.  The track forecast is essentially unchanged

from the previous advisories.  The cyclone should move through a

weakness in the ridge and turn to the northeast over the next day

or two.  Then the system should accelerate toward the

east-northeast while embedded in the westerlies.  The official 

track forecast remains close to both the simple and the corrected 

dynamical model consensus predictions, TVCA and HCCA.

Laura is a large hurricane, and users are reminded to not focus on

the precise track forecast since wind, storm surge, and rainfall

hazards extend far from the center.

Key Messages:

1. Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will

cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to

Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes.

This surge could penetrate up to 40 miles inland from the immediate

coastline, and flood waters will not fully recede for several days

after the storm.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected tonight in portions of the

hurricane warning area, with catastrophic wind damage expected

where Laura's eyewall moves onshore. Hurricane-force winds and

widespread damaging wind gusts will spread well inland into portions

of extreme eastern Texas and western Louisiana early Thursday.

3. Widespread flash flooding along small streams, urban areas, and

roadways is expected to begin overnight tonight into Thursday from

far eastern Texas into Louisiana and Arkansas. This will also lead

to minor to moderate freshwater river flooding. The heavy rainfall

threat and flash and urban flooding potential will spread

northeastward into the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio, and Tennessee

Valleys Friday night and Saturday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0300Z 29.0N  93.2W  130 KT 150 MPH

 12H  27/1200Z 31.0N  93.7W   95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND

 24H  28/0000Z 33.8N  92.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND

 36H  28/1200Z 35.6N  91.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND

 48H  29/0000Z 36.8N  88.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND

 60H  29/1200Z 37.5N  82.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

 72H  30/0000Z 38.5N  75.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 96H  31/0000Z 45.0N  60.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  01/0000Z 52.0N  46.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$

Forecaster Pasch

Power outages reported as lightning storm sweeps across P.E.I.

Environment Canada warning of strong gusts, heavy rain, possible hail

CBC News · Posted: Aug 25, 2020 3:32 PM AT | Last Updated: August 25

Torrential rain nearly blocked some Charlottetown streets Tuesday afternoon. 

Maritime Electric's site was reporting nearly 270 customers without power as of 8 p.m. Tuesday, as lightning storms continued to creep across Prince Edward Island.

The thunderstorms began just after midday, when Environment Canada's website reported that Prince and Queens counties were under a severe thunderstorm watch, while Kings County was under a severe thunderstorm warning only.

Kings County was added to the severe thunderstorm watch notice at 4 p.m., at which time 1,326 customers were without electricity.

That number dropped to just more than 1,100 by 5:30 and then 348 by 6:30. The number of customers without power fell throughout the evening. By 8 p.m. there were 266 without power.

"Meteorologists are tracking a severe thunderstorm capable of producing very strong wind gusts, up to nickel size hail and heavy rain," the agency warned.

Maritime Electric's Kim Griffin said in an email to CBC News that lightning might have knocked trees down onto power lines or hit equipment. 

Late-summer rain won't have 'much impact' for many farmers, says P.E.I. Federation of Agriculture

'Unfortunately, we really needed it a few weeks ago,' says Greg Donald of P.E.I. Potato Board

CBC News · Posted: Aug 26, 2020 2:25 PM AT | Last Updated: 3 hours ago

Greg Donald, general manager of the P.E.I. Potato Board, says the late rains likely did not come soon enough for some potato farmers.

Tuesday's rain was a welcome sight for many Island farmers, but in the end it might not have a huge effect.

All three counties were under severe thunderstorm warnings as of 4 p.m. on Tuesday. The storms brought torrential downpours to some areas and knocked out power to hundreds on P.E.I.

Summerside recorded 48.3 millimetres and Spring Valley got 41.9 millimetres. North Cape marked closer to 28.4 millimetres and East Point only got 9.7 millimetres.

Robert Godfrey, executive director of the P.E.I. Federation of Agriculture, told CBC's Angela Walker that after a couple of dry months, he predicted it will help some producers get through the growing season.

"It will help size up those later varieties, help fill the pods and soybeans, help all those vegetable crops that come out in late October. So certainly welcome," he said.

With some crops getting ready to be harvested in the next two or three weeks, Godfrey said he wondered if it will be enough for them to recuperate.

"I'm not sure it's going to have much impact," he said.

Power outages reported as lightning storm sweeps across P.E.I.

Dry P.E.I. conditions have some farmers calling on government to lift high-capacity well ban

At least there's no blight

Greg Donald, general manager of the P.E.I. Potato Board, agreed the late-August watering is likely too late for the crops that mature earlier in the season.

"Unfortunately, we really needed it a few weeks ago, and it'll help some, like the mid- and later-varieties, some," he said.

"But we hope now that we don't go from one extreme to the other."

On the bright side for potato farmers, there hasn't been a single reported case of late blight, which occurs infrequently but can be devastating due to high humidity and moisture in the potato fields.

Surf conditions dangerous in P.E.I. National Park

Swimming is not recommended

Kevin Yarr · CBC News · Posted: Aug 26, 2020 9:44 AM AT | Last Updated: 7 hours ago

Storms Tuesday have churned up the Gulf of St. Lawrence.

P.E.I. National Park is advising visitors that surf conditions are dangerous Wednesday, with a risk of rip currents.

Storms Tuesday have churned up the Gulf of St. Lawrence, and park officials are recommending people stay out of the water. Beach-goers should take care everywhere on the Island.

Rip currents form when waves break near the shoreline, piling up water between the breaking waves and the beach. The water can then rush back out to sea in a narrow channel, causing a current that is too strong to swim against.

If you are caught in a rip current.

Stay calm. Attract attention.

Do not try to swim against the current. Tread water until help arrives.

If no help is available, swim parallel to the shore until you are out of it, then make your way back to shore.