Major Hurricane Teddy (Category Four) Churns In The Atlantic
000
WTNT35 KNHC 190257
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020
...MAJOR HURRICANE TEDDY CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...
...LARGE SWELLS ARE SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 57.4W
ABOUT 730 MI...1170 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 57.4 West. Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue for the day or so, followed by a
turn toward the north late this weekend. On the forecast track,
Teddy will be approaching Bermuda late Sunday or early Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Teddy is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are
likely through Saturday, with a weakening trend forecast to
begin on Sunday.
Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin to affect Bermuda and
the nearby waters by Sunday afternoon. These conditions may linger
throughout most of the day Monday.
SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser
Antilles, the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas, and will spread to
Bermuda and the east coast of the United States by Saturday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
000
WTNT45 KNHC 190259
TCDAT5
Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020
Teddy continues to have an impressive appearance on satellite
images with a fairly symmetrical Central Dense Overcast, although
recent images show some warming of the cloud tops over the
southeastern part of the circulation. Upper-level outflow is
well-defined over the northern semicircle of the hurricane and
not as strong to the south. Earlier microwave images showed a
concentric eyewall structure and it appears that the hurricane has
re-intensified slightly over the past several hours. The current
intensity estimate is set at 115 kt which is a blend of subjective
and objective Dvorak estimates. Some additional fluctuations in
strength as a result of eyewall replacements could occur through
Saturday. On Sunday and beyond, a less conducive oceanic and
atmospheric environment should lead to slow weakening. However,
Teddy should remain a powerful hurricane for the next several days.
The numerical guidance shows that the circulation will become even
larger during the forecast period due to Teddy combined with a
high pressure area coming behind a cold front over the eastern
United States. Teddy is expected to make the transition to an
extratropical cyclone when it moves into Atlantic Canada.
The hurricane continues its northwestward trek and is moving around
325/11 kt. Teddy should move around the western side of a
subtropical high pressure system for the next day or so. Then, the
cyclone should turn northward with an increase in forward speed as
it approaches a strong mid-latitude trough cutting off into a low
as it moves off the northeast U.S. coast in 2-3 days. The track
of the system could bend a bit the left as it interacts with the
trough/low while approaching Nova Scotia. Around the end of the
forecast period, the post-tropical cyclone should turn
northeastward as it moves along the eastern side of a mid-level
trough. The official track forecast is close to the corrected model
consensus.
Teddy is producing seas to 48 feet and an extensive area of large
waves and swells which are impacting much of the western Atlantic
basin. See the Key Messages below.
Key Messages:
1. While the center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda
late Sunday or Monday, there is still a risk of strong winds, storm
surge, and heavy rainfall on the island, and a Tropical Storm Watch
is in effect.
2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical
cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada early
next week, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from
wind, rain, and storm surge. Residents there should closely monitor
the progress of Teddy and updates to the forecast through the
weekend.
3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions
of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0300Z 24.0N 57.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 25.5N 58.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 27.3N 60.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 29.0N 61.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 30.8N 62.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 21/1200Z 33.5N 61.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 37.7N 61.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 23/0000Z 45.5N 62.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 24/0000Z 50.5N 56.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Pasch
2:31 PM ADT Friday 18 September 2020
Tropical cyclone information statement for:
Nova Scotia
Prince Edward Island
For Hurricane Teddy.
The next information statement will be issued by 09:00 A.M. ADT Saturday.
Hurricane Teddy will approach the Maritimes early next week with impacts likely for parts of the region on Tuesday and Wednesday.
As of Friday afternoon, major hurricane Teddy is currently southeast of Bermuda and is moving northwestward. Teddy will continue on its current path over the next few days before making a turn northward on Sunday. Teddy is then expected to enter the Canadian Hurricane Centre response zone on Monday before approaching the Maritimes on Tuesday.
Track errors this far in advance remain large, but the latest computer modelling suggests that the centre of Teddy could make landfall along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia late Tuesday. Possible impacts include strong, potentially damaging winds, storm surge along with pounding surf, and heavy rainfall.
The Canadian Hurricane Centre is closely monitoring the evolution of this potentially dangerous storm. Interests in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor forecasts this weekend as the situation continues to evolve.
The Canadian Hurricane Centre will begin issuing regular updates on Teddy beginning 09:00 AM Saturday.
Forecaster(s): McArthur.
Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.
000
FXUS61 KCAR 190112
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
912 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slowly build east across the region through
Monday. Hurricane Teddy will approach from the southeast on
Tuesday, likely crossing Nova Scotia Tuesday night into
Wednesday......
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tropical system Teddy is the main concern. Models have come into
much better agreement on Teddy`s track, with a track toward Nova
Scotia with likely hurricane force winds just south of Nova
Scotia as Teddy approaches Nova Scotia. The devil is in the
details however. A track toward eastern Nova Scotia and Cape
Breton would bring minimal if any impacts to Maine, while a
track to the western end of Nova Scotia would bring significant
impacts especially to Downeast. It`s simply too early to
pinpoint track exactly. Played it safe in the grids with likely
PoPs along the New Brunswick border and chance PoPs elsewhere,
and NW winds gusting 35 mph along the coast and 25 mph Northern
Maine. One interesting hazard is that the winds, where
unaccompanied by rain, could lead to a substantial fire risk.
Our forecast solution is close to NHC`s and a consensus
forecast, and would be a fairly minimal impact to us, but
again, any jog to the west could mean much higher impacts for
Maine. Quiet late Wed/Thu with high pressure, then the next
potential upper trough with a chance of rain comes in from the
west Thu night/Fri.
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Generally VFR overnight through Saturday. However,
variable conditions are possible overnight in any patchy valley
fog, but confidence was not high enough to include at any of the
Taf sites.
SHORT TERM:
Saturday Night through Monday...VFR with light north winds.
Monday Night through Wednesday...Potential impacts from tropical
system Teddy. At this time, believe that Teddy with pass east of
us with only peripheral impacts of perhaps MVFR toward the New
Brunswick border and winds gusting around 30 mph from the
northwest.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect into
Saturday morning. Conditions fall below small craft advisory
levels Saturday afternoon.
SHORT TERM: North winds and seas could approach small craft
levels late Sat night into early Sun. Winds ease a bit late Sun
into Mon, but not much. Then winds and seas increase again with
Teddy Mon night and Tue. The winds and seas depend on Teddy`s
track which is headed toward Nova Scotia. Tropical storm force
winds are a realistic threat.
&&
posted by Advackia at 8:39 PM
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