Elsa Regains Hurricane Status (Category One) As It Nears A Western Florida Landfall
000
FXUS61 KCAR 070325
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1125 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region overnight and stall offshore
Wednesday into Thursday while low pressure approaches. Low
pressure will pass south of the area Friday and pull away from
the region Saturday along with the remains of Elsa. High
pressure will build into the area from the west on Sunday.....
......SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Downeast areas, closer to an offshore stalled front, will have
sct shwrs ovrngt Wed, while Nrn areas experience partial clrg
and cool conditions. Aftwrds, clds will re-advc back across the
N on Thu with warm advcn rnfl movg in from the SW later Thu aftn
into Thu ngt, affecting all of the FA as a sig s/wv from the
Great lks apchs. Rn may be hvy attms ovrngt Thu into erly Fri
morn with possible isold to sct embedded tstms as PWs reach arnd
1.50+ inches alg with patchy to areas of fog.
Aftwrds, longer range models vary with the track of Elsa`s
remains, with tdy`s 12z dtmnstc GFS furthest S and most
progressive, meaning rnfl would end by late Fri morn across the
N and diminish to lighter rnfl across Downeast areas by late
aftn/eve. The 12z ECMWF solution, represents the xtrm opposite
end of the range of solutions, actually lighter with rnfl with
the lead s/wv Thu aftn into Fri morn, and much more with heavier
rnfl later Fri into Fri ngt, with the remains of Elsa caught up
in a more amplified separate s/wv from the TN rvr vly. The 12z
Can solution is about hlf way between the GFS/ECMWF solutions.
Given that the NHC official track is msly further S than tdy`s
12z ECMWF solution, we optd to lean more toward the 12z
GFS/CanGEM solutions to be more in ln with NHC track/WPC long
range guidance. In any event, please monitor latest NHC bulletin
guidance on the progress and latest track guidance on Elsa.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
What`s left of any rnfl/shwrs Sat morn across SE ptns of the FA
Sat morn will exit E across the Can Maritimes by aftn as post
tropical Elsa accelerates and quickly moves well E of our FA.
This should result in fair conditions and near seasonable temps
for the second hlf of the weekend and into Mon, with abv
seasonal norms for Mon aftn`s hi temps.
Tue will begin fair and cont`d warm, then clds will increase by
Tue aftn as the next series of s/wvs from the great lks apchs
with late day shwrs and maybe tstms possible......
473
WTNT35 KNHC 070246
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Hurricane Elsa Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021
...ELSA MOVING NORTHWARD JUST OFFSHORE THE TAMPA BAY AREA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHWEST
AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 83.2W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward from Altamaha
Sound, Georgia, to Little River Inlet, South Carolina.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of Little River
Inlet, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, including Pamlico
and Albemarle Sounds.
The Tropical Storm Warning for the Dry Tortugas has been
discontinued.
The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of
Chokoloskee, Florida.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla
River, including Tampa Bay
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Chokoloskee to south of Egmont Key
* West coast of Florida north of Steinhatchee River to Ochlockonee
River
* Mouth of St. Marys River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South
Carolina
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Duck, North
Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening
situation. Persons located within these areas should take all
necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water
and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
Interests elsewhere in the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic coast
should monitor the progress of Elsa.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located
by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler
weather radars near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 83.2 West. Elsa
is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
north-northeast is expected on Wednesday, followed by a faster
northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa
will move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida later
tonight and early Wednesday morning. Elsa is forecast to make
landfall along the north Florida Gulf coast by late Wednesday
morning and then move across the southeastern United States through
Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in the intensity are possible until
landfall occurs on Tuesday. Weakening will begin after Elsa moves
inland by late Wednesday morning.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km). Sarasota Airport recently reported a sustained wind
of 36 mph (58 km/h) and a wind gust to 46 mph (74 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
aircraft is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning
area on the Florida Gulf coast beginning this evening. Tropical
storm conditions will continue over portions of the warning area in
the Florida Keys through this evening. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to spread northward into west-central Florida and the
Florida Big Bend region in the warning areas tonight and early
Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical
Storm Warning area along the Georgia coast by late Wednesday and
along the South Carolina coast Wednesday night and early Thursday.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to
4 ft
Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft
Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft
Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft
Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, SC...1 to 2 ft
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba through tonight, outer bands south
of Elsa will produce an additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall.
Isolated storm totals of 15 inches are expected, which will maintain
areas of significant flash flooding and mudslides through tonight.
Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and
impacts this week:
Across the Florida Keys into southwest and western portions of the
Florida Peninsula...3 to 6 inches with localized maximum totals up
to 9 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable
flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate
river flooding.
Across the rest of Florida...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum
totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in
considerable isolated flash and urban flooding along with minor to
isolated moderate river flooding.
Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South
Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches
will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban
flooding.
Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches
Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated
flash and urban flooding.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible overnight across the western
and central Florida Peninsula. The tornado threat will continue on
Wednesday across north Florida, southeast Georgia, and eastern South
Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern Carolinas
and far southeast Virginia on Thursday.
SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the Florida
Keys and the west coast of Florida through early Wednesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
for more details.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
000
WTNT45 KNHC 070257
TCDAT5
Hurricane Elsa Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021
After an earlier flurry of convective bursting and even the
development of a eye in radar imagery, Elsa appears to have leveled
off over the past couple of hours. Between 2100 UTC and 0000 UTC,
WSR-88D radars from Tampa and Key West indicated areas of average
Doppler velocities of 75-85 kt between 8000-13,000 ft, which were
co-located with convective bands consisting of 50 dBZ and higher
reflectivity values, which equates to at least 65 kt surface winds.
Elsa's center also passed just barely to the east of Buoy 41023
around 2100 UTC, producing a sustained wind of 49 kt at 3-meters
elevation, which equals a 10-meter wind speed of 55 kt on the west
side of the cyclone. The strongest 850-mb flight-level wind measured
by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft so far has been 74 kt.
However, radar data indicate that the aircraft just missed the
strongest winds in the convection by only about 5 n mi. The initial
intensity is being held at 65 kt just in case convection redevelops
around the ragged eye feature later tonight.
Elsa is moving northward, or 360/12 kt. This motion should continue
tonight and early Wednesday until landfall occurs across the
northwestern Florida peninsula. Thereafter, a gradual turn toward
the north-northeast is expected by late Wednesday, followed by some
acceleration toward the northeast on Thursday as Elsa rounds the
western periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge and gets caught
up by the southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-level trough. The
official track forecast lies between the simple and
corrected-consensus tracks models and the previous NHC track
forecast.
Elsa's inner-core convection looks pretty ragged right now, but the
vertical structure has improved based on the reconnaissance data,
which indicate that the low-, middle- and upper-level circulations
are nearly vertically stacked now. Elsa's ragged eye feature along
with the very warm water beneath the cyclone and the upcoming
nocturnal convective maximum period could combine to allow
convection to redevelop. However, proximity to dry mid-level air
just to the west should prevent any significant strengthening from
occurring. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected due to
increased frictional effects and Elsa's small size. The pressure
gradient, however, is forecast by the GFS and ECMWF models to
increase between Elsa and a sprawling surface high pressure system
over the western Atlantic, which should act to increase the winds to
tropical storm force near the coastal areas from Georgia to North
Carolina on Wednesday and Thursday. The new NHC intensity forecast
is similar to the previous advisory and follows the consensus
intensity models HCCA and IVCN.
Key Messages:
1. Heavy rain will impact Cuba tonight resulting in significant
flooding and mudslides. As Elsa moves across the western and
northern Florida Peninsula through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may
result in considerable flash, urban, and minor to isolated moderate
river flooding. Mid to late week, heavy rainfall across southeast
Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia
may result in isolated flash and urban flooding, with considerable
flash and urban flooding possible across coastal Georgia and the
Lowcountry of South Carolina.
2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions
of the west coast of Florida tonight and Wednesday, and a Storm
Surge Warning is in effect for that area.
3. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight and early Wednesday
along a portion of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are occurring
across portions southwest Florida and will continue to spread
northward along the west coast of the state within the warning area
through Wednesday morning.
4. Although the center of Elsa is expected to remain inland of the
coastline from Georgia through the Carolinas during the next couple
of days, tropical storm conditions are expected along much of the
coasts of Georgia and South Carolina.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/0300Z 27.3N 83.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 29.0N 83.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 31.4N 82.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 08/1200Z 33.9N 80.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 09/0000Z 36.4N 77.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 09/1200Z 39.3N 73.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 10/0000Z 42.8N 68.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 11/0000Z 51.0N 54.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Stewart
posted by Advackia at 8:52 PM
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