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FGUS71 KCAR 312016 CCA
ESFCAR
MEC003-009-019-021-025-029-072015-
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
416 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2022
...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN...CENTRAL...AND
DOWNEAST MAINE...
THIS IS THE SEVENTH WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR
2022, ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CARIBOU, MAINE.
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN, CENTRAL, AND DOWNEAST MAINE FOR THE
TWO-WEEK PERIOD OF MARCH 31ST TO APRIL 14TH, 2022.
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS IS ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE, MAINLY THE ST. JOHN & AROOSTOOK
RIVER BASINS. THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE &
BELOW NORMAL IN DOWNEAST AREAS.
...CLIMATOLOGICAL GUIDANCE...
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH HAVE BEEN RUNNING ABOVE
NORMAL FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE REGION. BANGOR HAS SEEN AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE OF 32.8 DEGREES WHICH IS 2.4 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
CARIBOU AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH IS 25.2 DEGREES
WHICH IS ONLY 0.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAS BEEN IN THE ST. JOHN VALLEY WHERE
FRENCHVILLE HAS BEEN RUNNING 0.8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MARCH
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 23.5 DEGREES. LIQUID PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE HAS BEEN ABOVE AVERAGE.
FRENCHVILLE HAS SEEN 1.73 INCHES WHICH IS 0.31 INCHES ABOVE
NORMAL. CARIBOU HAS SEEN 3.99 INCHES WHICH IS 1.31 INCHES ABOVE
NORMAL. HOULTON HAS SEEN 2.82 INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION WHICH
IS 0.24 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. MILLINOCKET HAS SEEN 3.20 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION WHICH IS 0.33 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. THE GREATER
BANGOR AREA TO THE DOWNEAST COAST HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN
NORMAL WITH ONLY 2.97 INCHES IN BANGOR WHICH IS 0.14 INCHES BELOW
NORMAL. IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL THIS MONTH DOWNEAST AREAS HAVE SEEN
WELL BELOW NORMAL SNOWFALL WHILE NORTHERN AREAS HAVE SEEN ABOVE
AVERAGE SNOW. MILLINOCKET HAS SEEN 8.5 INCHES OF SNOW IN MARCH
WHILE FORT KENT HAS SEEN 20.5 INCHES THIS MONTH. BANGOR HAS SEEN
ONLY 5.0 INCHES OF SNOW IN MARCH WHICH IS 9.9 INCHES BELOW NORMAL.
CARIBOU ON THE OTHER HAND HAS SEEN 26.2 INCHES OF SNOW WHICH IS
5.3 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) HAS SHIFTED TO SHARPLY
NEGATIVE OVER THE PAST WEEK WHICH HAS ALLOWED AN UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR MASS TO PLUNGE SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES. WITH A NEGATIVE NAO, UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING IN THE VICINITY
OF GREENLAND OFTEN FORCES THE COLD AIR IN EASTERN CANADA SOUTHWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND AND NEW YORK STATE. AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY APRIL,
MEDIUM RANGE CLIMATE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE NAO INDEX WILL RETURN
CLOSER TO NEUTRAL AS THE UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING NEAR GREENLAND
LIKELY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC.
AT THE SAME TIME THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICA (PNA) PATTERN, WHICH
HAS BEEN RUNNING CLOSE TO NEUTRAL, IS SHOWING SIGNS OF A SHIFT TO
NEGATIVE AS WE WORK TOWARDS MID-APRIL. WITH A NEGATIVE PNA UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IS FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WITH LARGELY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A STORM TRACK NEAR OR WEST OF NEW
ENGLAND. IF IN FACT WE DO SEE A WEAKENING OF THE NEGATIVE NAO
COMBINED WITH A DEVELOPING NEGATIVE PNA, TEMPERATURES COULD BECOME
WARMER THAN NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO MID-APRIL AFTER A RATHER
CHILLY START TO THE MONTH.
THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION'S 8
TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR 6 TO 12 APRIL 2022 SEEMS TO AGREE WITH THE
ABOVE ASSESSMENT AS IT CALLS FOR TEMPERATURES TO LIKELY BE ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH THE STRONGEST SIGNALS OVER DOWNEAST
AREAS IN THE GREATER BANGOR REGION. PRECIPITATION FOR THE SAME
TIME PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR ALL OF
MAINE.
...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENTS...
SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS THE ST. JOHN RIVER BASIN VARIES BETWEEN 25 TO
40 INCHES OF SNOW WITH SOME ISOLATED DEEPER SNOW ACROSS THE
HEADWATERS IN THE NORTH WOODS. THIS REMAINS ABOVE NORMAL SNOW
DEPTH WITH SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT READINGS 8 TO 12 INCHES. THE SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENT IN MUCH OF THE ST. JOHN RIVER BASIN IS
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL COMPARED TO THE PAST 10 YEARS OF DATA.
THIS SNOWPACK HAS BEEN SLOW TO MELT WITH MOSTLY JUST SUBLIMATION
OCCURRING GIVEN THE SNOWPACK TEMPERATURES IN THE 25-30F RANGE
DESPITE THE SEVERAL ABOVE FREEZING DAYS. IN THE AROOSTOOK RIVER
BASIN SNOWPACK RANGES BETWEEN 15 TO 30 INCHES WITH THE CARIBOU NWS
OFFICE SITTING AT 17 INCH SNOW DEPTH. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS
RUNNING NEAR NORMAL BETWEEN 5 AND 8 INCHES. ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN HIGHLANDS INCLUDING MOOSEHEAD REGION THE SNOWPACK IS DOWN
TO 5 TO 15 INCHES WITH MILLINOCKET REPORTING ONLY 1 INCH SNOW
DEPTH. THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THESE AREAS IS DOWN TO BETWEEN
3 AND 6 INCHES OF LIQUID WHICH IS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
THE SNOWPACK HAS MELTED COMPLETELY IN MUCH OF SOUTHERN AREAS WITH
JUST A TRACE TO 2 INCHES IN FAR EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY WITH
VERY LITTLE WATER EQUIVALENT.
...SOIL MOISTURE AND WATER SUPPLY CONDITIONS...
SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
BUT 1 MONTH ANOMALY CHANGES SHOWS NORTHERN AREAS GETTING DRIER.
THIS IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE DEEP SNOWPACK AND THE FROZEN GROUND.
THE FROST CONTINUES TO THAW ACROSS THE NORTH WITH AREAS NOW DOWN
TO 7-10 INCH FROST DEPTH WITH SOME SURFACE THAWING OCCURRING. THE
GROUND HAS THAWED IN MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND
DOWNEAST COAST WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR ABSORPTION. A LOOK AT
GROUNDWATER LEVELS, COURTESY OF THE USGS, SHOWED WELL ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS IN EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY, NORTHERN HANCOCK BACK INTO
THE BANGOR REGION. IN FACT THE GROUNDWATER MONITORING WELL AT
CALAIS REPORTED RECORD HIGH FOR MARCH WATER LEVELS AS OF MARCH
29TH WITH THE RECORDS EXTENDING BACK 38 YEARS. WE ALSO HAVE ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS IN THE NORTHERN HIGHLANDS INTO THE NORTH WOODS.
ELSEWHERE, READINGS ARE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE NORTH WOODS CONTINUES TO SEE D0-D2 DROUGHT CONDITIONS. D1 &
D2 EXISTS IN A VERY TINY LOCATION OF NORTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY NEAR
THE QUEBEC BORDER. D0 CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN
AROOSTOOK, WESTERN PISCATAQUIS AND THE REST OF SOMERSET COUNTIES.
...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...
RIVER FLOWS ARE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL DOWNEAST WITH NORMAL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO NORTHERN MAINE.
CURRENTLY, 95% OF THE ST. JOHN RIVER IS COVERED IN ICE FROM THE
HEADWATERS IN THE NORTH WOODS TO DICKEY WHERE A LARGE ICE JAM FROM
DECEMBER REMAINS FROZEN IN PLACE. THIS ICE JAM POTENTIALLY
EXTENDS INTO ST. FRANCIS AND ENDS BEFORE FORT KENT WHICH IS
APPROXIMATELY 15 MILES LONG. ICE IS ROTTING IN SEVERAL AREAS FROM
THE HEADWATERS TO ST. FRANCIS. MAINE FOREST SERVICE REPORTED A FEW
DAYS AGO THE ICE AT THE ST. JUSTE ROAD CROSSING WAS SIGNIFICANTLY
ROTTING WITH MELTING SNOW CREATING AN AREA OF STANDING WATER ON
THE ICE. RECENT MEASUREMENTS OF THE SNOWPACK ON THE ICE IN THE
ALLAGASH WAS 8 TO 14 INCHES WHICH HAS GREATLY REDUCED IN THE LAST
TWO WEEKS. THERE IS SOME ICE ROT THAT RESULTED IN SMALL OPENINGS
IN ALLAGASH, ST. FRANCIS AND MORE SO INTO FORT KENT ESPECIALLY
WHERE THE FISH RIVER DROPS INTO THE ST. JOHN. IN PERSON
OBSERVATIONS AND SENTINEL/LANDSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE
ST. JOHN IS A MIX OF SMALL OPEN AREAS AND STILL THICK ICE FROM
FORT KENT TO MADAWASKA TO HAMLIN. THESE ARE OPENINGS AROUND THE
CONFLUENCE WITH THE FISH RIVER, MADAWASKA RIVER AND OTHER SMALL
STREAMS. THERE ARE ALSO OPENINGS AROUND THE CONSTRUCTION LOCATION
OF THE NEW INTERNATIONAL BRIDGE IN MADAWASKA. OVERALL, ICE
THICKNESS ON THE ST. JOHN RIVER VARIES BETWEEN 1 TO 2 FEET WITH
ISOLATED THICKER AMOUNTS AROUND THE FROZEN ICE JAMS. INDICATIONS
SUGGEST THE THICKER LAYERED “BLUE ICE” WHICH TYPICALLY
REQUIRES A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF FORCE TO BREAK UP REMAINS SOLID
IN MANY AREAS.
THE ALLAGASH RIVER REMAINS NEARLY COMPLETELY FROZEN BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH NO LARGE OPENINGS.
SNOWMOBILE TRAFFIC CONTINUES ON THE ICE IN SEVERAL AREAS ALONG
WITH WILDLIFE TRACKS VISIBLE. SIMILAR TO THE ST. JOHN THE
THICKNESS IS ESTIMATED AT 1 TO 2 FEET. THE RIVER DOES FEATURE
ROTTING SNOWPACK AND SURFACE ICE IN SEVERAL AREAS BACK AT THE
HEADWATERS. OVERALL, SNOWPACK REMAINS 6-10 INCHES DEEP ON MUCH OF
THE ICE EXCEPT WHERE ROTTING IS MORE PREVALENT. THE FISH RIVER IS
MOSTLY OPENING UP NOW WITH A DECENT FLOW OF WATER COMING OUT OF
THE LAKE CHAIN WHICH IS VERY NOTICEABLE IN FORT KENT.
THE AROOSTOOK RIVER REMAINS NEARLY 95% COVERED FROM THE
HEADWATERS TO THE TOWN OF MASARDIS WITH THE CONFLUENCE OF THE
SCOPAN STREAM. THE ICE THICKNESS IS MAINLY 1-2 FOOT THICK SMOOTH
ICE UNDER A DEEP SNOWPACK. AT THE CONFLUENCE OF SCOPAN STREAM TO
ASHLAND WE HAVE A FEW OPENINGS IN THE ICE LIKELY DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF THE SCOPAN HYDRO DAM RELEASING WATER AND THE THIN
ICE MELTING. THERE REMAINS AN ICE JAM FROZEN UNDER THE 5-10 INCH
SNOWPACK FROM WADE/WASHBURN TO CROUSEVILLE BEFORE IT RETURNS TO
MAINLY SMOOTH SHEET ICE IN PRESQUE ISLE. THERE IS MAINLY EDGE
FRACTURING ONGOING IN WASHBURN THANKS TO DISCHARGE FROM GARDNER
CREEK & RUNOFF FROM THE BANKS IN WASHBURN. THERE IS ALSO AN AREA
OF OPEN WATER NOW IN THE CENTER OF THE FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE
ROUTE 1 BRIDGE IN PRESQUE ISLE. ICE REMAINS MAINLY THICK SHEET ICE
BETWEEN PRESQUE ISLE AND THE CARIBOU DAM BUT SIMILAR TO UPSTREAM
THERE IS FRACTURING AND OPENINGS DEVELOPING. BELOW THE CARIBOU DAM
TO THE NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER, IT IS MAINLY SMOOTH SHEET ICE INTO
FORT FAIRFIELD. THERE ARE PLENTY OF SPOTS THAT ARE SHOWING ICE ROT
AND SLOW DECAY ESPECIALLY IN CARIBOU CLOSER TO THE DAM. THERE IS
ALSO OPENINGS BEFORE THE FORT FAIRFIELD BRIDGE DUE TO THE RUNOFF
FROM SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS. AT THE FORT FAIRFIELD BRIDGE THE
WATER LEVEL AND ICE REMAINS WELL BELOW FLOOD LEVEL. THE ICE BEYOND
THE BRIDGE TO THE NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER IS FROZEN SOLID WITH NO
APPARENT CRACKS OR BREAKS. ALL INDICATIONS STILL POINT TO A
MOSTLY THICK LAYER OF “BLUE ICE” WHICH IS MUCH THICKER AND
STRONGER ICE THAT REQUIRES A GOOD AMOUNT OF FORCE TO BREAK UP.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE DECREASING SNOWPACK ON THE ICE THE SOLAR
RADIATION OF A STRONG LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL SUN ANGLE IS
ALLOWING FOR ICE ROT TO INCREASE.
SATELLITE IMAGERY, SPOTTER REPORTS AND REPORTS FROM EMERGENCY
MANAGERS CONFIRM THE MATTAWAMKEAG HAS FLUSHED ALL THE ICE SINCE
THE LAST REPORT. THE PISCATAQUIS RIVER HAS DONE THE SAME EXCEPT
FOR SOME MINOR AREAS OF THIN ICE IN BENDS OF THE RIVER. THE
PISCATAQUIS RIVER LIKELY STILL HAS SOME SMALL ICE COVERED AREAS AT
THE HEADWATERS BUT IT MOSTLY FLUSHED AT THIS TIME. THE PENOBSCOT
RIVER CONTINUES TO FLUSH ITS REMAINING ICE AT THE HEADWATERS WHICH
SHOULD BE COMPLETED WITHIN THE NEXT WEEK OR SO GIVEN THE
FORECAST. ICE IS COMPLETELY FLUSHED FROM THE KENDUSKEAG STREAM
FROM ITS HEADWATERS TO THE PENOBSCOT RIVER. LASTLY, THE ST. CROIX
RIVER HAS OPENED UP EXCEPT FOR ICE THAT REMAINS ON THE LAKES.
...IN CONCLUSION...
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS IS ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE MAINLY IN THE ST. JOHN & AROOSTOOK RIVER
BASINS. THIS IS DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL SNOWPACK AND ABOVE NORMAL SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENTS WITH PREDICTED WARMING TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
LIKELY CAUSE ICE MOVEMENT. THE FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO ICE JAMS IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS IS BELOW NORMAL AND LIKELY OVER GIVEN
THE FREE AND CLEAR RIVERS. THE POTENTIAL FOR OPEN WATER FLOODING
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS REMAINS AT NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL
GIVEN THE CURRENT RIVER FLOWS.
THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY,
APRIL 14TH UNLESS CONDITIONS WARRANT AN UPDATE.
$$
SINKO