Elsa Makes Landfall In Florida As A Tropical Storm, It Then Moves Northward

000

WTNT35 KNHC 080258

TCPAT5

BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number  32

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021

1100 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021

...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR NORTH CAROLINA AND THE

MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...32.1N 82.3W

ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM NW OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA

ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Little River Inlet

South Carolina to Great Egg Inlet New Jersey, including Pamlico and

Albemarle Sounds, Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal

Potomac south of Cobb Island and Delaware Bay south of Slaughter

Beach.

The Tropical Storm Warning south of Altamaha Sound Georgia has been

discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Great Egg Inlet, New Jersey.

* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south

of Cobb Island

* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* North of Great Egg Inlet, New Jersey to Sandy Hook, New Jersey

* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the

south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north

shore

* New Haven, Connecticut to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including

Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area.

Interests in the Canadian Maritimes should monitor the progress of

Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was

located near latitude 32.1 North, longitude 82.3 West. Elsa is

moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn

toward northeast is expected overnight, followed by a faster

northeastward motion by late Thursday.  On the forecast track, Elsa

will move over Georgia tonight, over South Carolina early on

Thursday, over North Carolina later on Thursday, pass near 

the eastern mid-Atlantic states late Thursday and move near or

over the northeastern United States on Friday.

Doppler radar and surface data indicate that the maximum sustained

winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening

is expected through tomorrow as Elsa moves over land, and some 

re-strengthening is possible on Friday while the system moves close 

to the northeastern United States.  Elsa is forecast to become a 

post-tropical cyclone late Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km), 

mostly southeast of the center near the coast.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches) 

based on nearby surface observations.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and

on the web at

www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm

Warning area along the Georgia coast tonight, along the South

Carolina coast tonight and early Thursday, along the North 

Carolina coast on Thursday and along the mid-Atlantic coast by 

Thursday afternoon.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the 

watch area in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states by Friday.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts 

and impacts the rest of this week:

Across portions of southeastern Georgia and the Lowcountry of South 

Carolina, storm totals of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum 

amounts up to 8 inches are likely tonight through Thursday, which 

may result in considerable flash and urban flooding.

Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern 

Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches from 

late tonight through Thursday night are possible, which could lead 

to limited flash and urban flooding.

From the Mid-Atlantic into New England, 1 to 3 inches with isolated 

totals up to 5 inches are possible Thursday into Friday. This could 

lead to limited flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible overnight from 

southeastern Georgia into the coastal plain of South Carolina.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.

Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$

Forecaster Blake

000

WTNT45 KNHC 080259

TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number  32

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021

1100 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021

Doppler radar and surface observations indicate that Elsa is

maintaining its intensity.  However, these winds aren't close to

the center but, rather, in a strong band of convection in the 

eastern semicircle of the storm.  The current wind speed is set to 

40 kt in accordance with an earlier sustained wind report of 38 kt, 

and radar velocities reduced to the surface that would support at 

least 40 kt.

Some weakening is expected overnight while a significant portion of 

Elsa's circulation remains over land.  However by late Thursday, 

more of the storm will be moving over water, and a fair number 

of the models suggest re-intensification could take place.

It is a little puzzling why the ECMWF and UKMET models, however,

are showing a strengthening tropical storm close to the

mid-Atlantic states, especially without a significant trough 

interaction or warm waters.  I'm getting some deja vu in this case 

after working Claudette from a few weeks ago, with those same 

models also over-intensifying that storm.  The GFS has been 

relatively consistent in showing only a small intensification of 

Elsa, and the NHC forecast will continue to be closer to that 

model's relatively weaker solution.  

The storm has turned north-northeastward tonight and is moving a

little faster, about 14 kt.  Elsa should move northeastward at an

increasing forward speed during the next few days as it becomes

embedded within fast southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude

trough.  No significant changes were made to the previous track

forecast since guidance remains in good agreement.  Elsa is likely

to become absorbed north of Newfoundland by another extratropical 

low by day 4.

There is greater confidence tonight that some portion of North 

Carolina and the mid-Atlantic coast will receive 

tropical-storm force-winds, so the Tropical Storm Watch has been 

upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning in those areas.  Areas to the 

north remain less certain, and remain under a Tropical Storm Watch.

Key Messages:

1. As Elsa moves across southeastern Georgia into the Lowcountry of 

South Carolina tonight, heavy rainfall may result in considerable 

flash, urban, and minor river flooding.  Heavy rainfall, from North 

Carolina across the mid-Atlantic and into New England Thursday and 

Friday, could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the

coasts of Georgia and South Carolina tonight.  Tropical storm

conditions are also expected along the coasts of North Carolina on 

Thursday and the mid-Atlantic by Thursday night.  Tropical storm 

conditions are possible in the southern New England states 

and New York by Friday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 32.1N  82.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND

 12H  08/1200Z 34.1N  80.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND

 24H  09/0000Z 37.1N  77.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND

 36H  09/1200Z 40.4N  72.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER

 48H  10/0000Z 44.5N  67.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 60H  10/1200Z 49.0N  60.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 72H  11/0000Z 54.0N  50.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 96H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster Blake

000

FXUS61 KCAR 080104

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

904 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front will become stationary over the Gulf of Maine

overnight. Low pressure from the Great Lakes approaches late

Thursday and tracks along the Saint Lawrence valley Thursday

night. Low pressure from the remnants of tropical storm Elsa

will approach from the southwest and track along southern

portions of the area Friday afternoon and evening and move

Northeast away from the region by Saturday morning. High

pressure will build into the area from the west for Sunday and

Monday.

&&

.....SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Two main features will fuse into a prolonged rainfall event

over Maine in late week.

The first feature will be the PRE, or Predecessor Rainfall

Event, arriving Thursday evening and overnight. ThetaE ridge

will be poised across the state as low pres winds up the the St

Lawrence River. Surging PWATs around 1.5 move into ME from

the S w/ added forcing from escaping high to NE. Current QPF

thoughts line much of the North Woods and Crown of Maine with

the bulk of stratiform rain. This also lines up well beneath a

grouping of supportive differential divergence in the column.

Showers and some thunder develop across the Central Highlands

and Downeast areas through the night, increasing in coverage

into Fri afternoon...to the next feature.

Elsa will near the Gulf of Maine shores Friday afternoon per

NHCs forecast. Currently the main impact is forecast to be

heavy rain potential across Downeast and the Central Highlands

Fri afternoon into the late evening.

With the two events combined, a widespread storm total precip of

around 2 inches appears possible. Locally higher will be

possible in convective and terrain elements, especially with the

dynamics Elsa may bring. No hydro headlines currently, but with

increasing confidence of where a PRE/Elsa overlap could form,

they should be considered in subsequent updates. Elsas center

will be moving quickly across the region, but drought stricken

areas can still see minor flooding if training of the synoptic

rain combines w/ dampened/saturated areas from the event Thurs

night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

High pressure dominates the area through the remainder of the

weekend. Return flow arrives Monday with increasing rain shower

chances. The continued flow will keep these chances around into

mid-week. Temps will run about normal for early to mid July with

highs in the mid to upper 70s, and lows in the mid to upper 50s.

&&.....

8:56 PM ADT Wednesday 07 July 2021

Tropical cyclone information statement for:

New Brunswick

Nova Scotia

Prince Edward Island

For Tropical Storm Elsa.

The next information statement will be issued by 03:00 a.m. ADT.

Tropical Storm Elsa is currently now inland over southern Georgia. Elsa is expected to track across the Maritimes as a Post-Tropical storm late Friday or Saturday bringing significant rain to parts of the region.

1. Summary of basic information at 09:00 p.m. ADT.

Location: Near 31.4 North 82.7 West.

About 167 kilometres west-southwest of Savannah GA.

Maximum sustained winds: 75 kilometres per hour.

Present movement: North-northeast at 22 kilometres per hour.

Minimum central pressure: 1006 millibars.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

As Tropical Storm Elsa is still several days away from affecting our region, specific details on its impacts in our region are preliminary at this time. These impacts could change significantly depending on how the storm evolves over the next few days as it traverses the southeastern United States.

a. Wind.

Widespread damaging winds from Elsa are not expected across the Maritimes at this time. However some gusty winds are possible just south of its eventual track through the region, potentially gusting to 60 or 70 km/h.

b. Rainfall.

The most likely impact from Elsa will be rainfall, with areas along and north of its eventual track through the region picking up significant rainfall, likely in excess of 50 mm.

c. Surge/Waves.

No significant coastal impacts from storm surge is currently expected from Elsa. Latest wave models suggest wave heights of 2 to 3 metres reaching the Atlantic Coast of Nova Scotia by late Friday or Saturday.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Gale force winds are possible in some waters just south of Elsa's track on Friday or early Saturday.

Forecaster(s): Borgel / McArthur

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.