Isaias Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 30
National Weather Service Gray ME AL092020
1105 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020
MEZ008-042315-
/O.CON.KGYX.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Northern Franklin-
1105 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Carrabassett Valley
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent tropical storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 50 mph
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39
to 57 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm
force.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect property should be
completed as soon as possible. Prepare for limited wind
damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
uprooted, leading to downed power lines.
- A few roads impassable from debris, caused by downed
branches and power lines. Hazardous driving conditions on
bridges and other elevated roadways.
- Scattered power and communications outages likely.
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flash Flood Watch is in effect
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional around 1 inch
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for
moderate flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues
are possible.
- PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
action may result in serious injury or loss of life.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations
and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with
swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places,
especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams,
creeks, canals, and ditches will overflow.
- Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken
foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas
of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and
poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on
moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow.
Driving conditions will become hazardous. Some road and
bridge closures.
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few
tornadoes
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a
few tornadoes.
- PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to
tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before
hazardous weather arrives.
- ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter
quickly.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
power and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.
* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- http://ready.gov/hurricanes
$$
430
WTNT44 KNHC 041459
TCDAT4
Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020
Doppler radar data from Dover, Delaware (KDOX), and Ft. Dix, New
Jersey (KDIX) this morning continue to indicate 70-80 kt winds
between 4000-7000 ft over the ocean just offshore the Delmarva
peninsula and the southeastern coast of New Jersey, which would
normally correspond to 65-70 kt surface winds. However, these
velocity values have been collocated with only 15-25 dBZ
reflectivity echoes, so the typical 80-85 percent reduction factors
likely don't apply. Sustained observed surface winds of 50-55 kt
have been reported, so the initial intensity will be held at 60 kt,
but that is only for winds over the ocean and near the coast.
Isaias is moving north-northeastward or 020/30 kt. The cyclone will
continue to accelerate north-northeastward today and tonight within
strong southwesterly flow ahead of a deep-layer trough and
associated cold front approaching the mid-Atlantic and New England
areas from the west. By 24 h, the Isaias is expected to slow down
and degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone over Maine before it is
absorbed by a larger extratropical low located over southeastern
Canada. The new NHC track forecast is just an extension of the
previous advisory, and lies very close to the tightly clustered
consensus track models.
As Isaias moves north-northeastward through the Mid-Atlantic coast,
interaction with a strong upper-level jet maximum is forecast to
maintain the tropical storm's intensity longer than what typically
would be expected for inland decaying tropical cyclone. The global
models continue to indicate that Isaias is likely to produce
widespread tropical-storm conditions, with hurricane-force wind
gusts possible along the mid-Atlantic coast through this afternoon.
As a result, the gust factor at 12 h remains above the standard
20-percent value in the Forecast/Advisory Product (TCMAT4).
In addition to the wind threat, Isaias is expected to produce heavy
rainfall along and just west of the I-95 corridor today, and the
Weather Prediction Center has placed a portion of this area in a
high risk for life-threatening flash flooding.
There also remains a significant risk of tornadoes across the
mid-Atlantic coast and southeastern New York this afternoon,
possibly spreading into southern New England tonight.
Key Messages:
1. Widespread sustained tropical storm force winds and gusts to
hurricane force are expected along the mid-Atlantic coast, including
portions of the Chesapeake Bay region, through this afternoon, which
could cause tree damage and power outages. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to spread across New England tonight.
2. Heavy rainfall along the East Coast, near the path of Isaias,
will result in flash flooding, some of which may be significant in
the mid-Atlantic and Northeast through tonight. Potentially
life-threatening urban flooding remains possible in Philadelphia
and elsewhere along and just west of the I-95 corridor today.
Scattered minor to moderate river flooding is likely across portions
of the and the Mid-Atlantic. Quick-responding rivers in Northeast
will also be susceptible to minor river flooding.
3. Numerous tornadoes have already occurred over portions of the
mid-Atlantic coast this morning. The threat of tornadoes will
continue along the mid-Atlantic coast spread into New England this
afternoon.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/1500Z 39.1N 76.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
12H 05/0000Z 43.2N 73.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
24H 05/1200Z 48.2N 71.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 06/0000Z 52.0N 71.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 06/1200Z 53.6N 69.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
$$
Forecaster Stewart
8:36 AM ADT Tuesday 04 August 2020
Tropical cyclone information statement for:
New Brunswick
Québec - south:
Amqui - Matapédia Valley
Beauce
Charlevoix
Eastern Townships
Forillon National Park - Gaspé - Percé
Gaspésie National Park - Murdochville
Kamouraska - Rivière-du-Loup - Trois-Pistoles
Matane
Montmagny - L'Islet
New Carlisle - Chandler
Québec
Restigouche - Bonaventure
Rimouski - Mont-Joli
Sainte-Anne-des-Monts - Grande-Vallée
Témiscouata
For Tropical Storm Isaias.
The next information statement will be issued by 2:00 p.m. EDT today.
1. Summary of basic information at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
Location: 37.7 North 76.8 West.
About 54 kilometres east-northeast of Richmond, VA.
Maximum sustained winds: 100 kilometres per hour.
Present movement: north-northeast at 46 kilometres per hour.
Minimum central pressure: 994 millibars.
2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.
The Canadian Hurricane Centre is closely monitoring the progress of Tropical Storm Isaias (pronounced ees-ah-EE-ahs). Isaias will approach Quebec and New Brunswick through New England tonight. The expected impacts for Canada are heavy rainfall in southern and eastern parts of Quebec and moderate gusty winds including New Brunswick.
a. Wind.
Southeasterly winds gusting to 50 km/h are likely over New Brunswick and parts of Quebec including eastern Townships and areas along the St. Lawrence River tonight. As the low moves northward through Quebec Wednesday expect warm and humid southerly winds across the region. New Brunswick and the Gaspe region could see gusts up to 70 km/h Wednesday afternoon.
b. Rainfall.
A brief period of heavy rain from the direct remnants of the storm is expected over parts of southern Quebec after midnight tonight into early tomorrow morning. The eastern Townships northward to the Quebec City area is most likely to be affected with up to 60 mm. Most of the rain will fall over a short period of time (2-3 hours) therefore some minor flooding may occur in prone locations.
Additional note on rainfall as of Tuesday morning: Showers well ahead and to the west of the storm track throughout today are not directly related to Isaias. Also note that heavy rainfall may occur further west into the Montreal area as well due to a combination of Isaias' remnants and a non-tropical low farther west.
c. Surge/Waves.
Nothing significant expected. Waves of 2-3 m along the southwestern portion of New Brunswick are expected tonight and into Wednesday.
3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.
Marginal gale-force winds can be expected over westernmost Maritime marine regions including the mouth of the St. Lawrence River tonight and into Wednesday. Seas of 2-3 metres are expected. Small craft operators should take precautions.
Forecasters: Fogarty/Spencer/Hatt
Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.
Isaias Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 29
National Weather Service Caribou ME AL092020
537 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020
MEZ030-041745-
/O.CON.KCAR.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Coastal Washington-
537 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Eastport
- Machias
- Cherryfield
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Tropical storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 25-35 mph with gusts to 50 mph
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39
to 57 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm
force.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect property should be
completed as soon as possible. Prepare for limited wind
damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees
are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown
over.
- A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within
urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving
conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
- Scattered power and communications outages.
* STORM SURGE
- No storm surge inundation forecast
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Little to no storm
surge flooding
- The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: There is little to no threat of storm surge flooding.
Rough surf, coastal erosion, and life-threatening rip
currents are possible.
- PREPARE: Little to no preparations for storm surge flooding
are needed.
- ACT: Follow the instructions of local officials. Monitor
forecasts.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
- Little to no potential impacts from storm surge flooding.
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Up to 1 inch
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Little or no
potential for flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: There is little or no potential for flooding rain.
- PREPARE: Little to no preparations are needed to protect
against flooding rain at this time.
- ACT: Monitor for changes to the forecast.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
- Little to no potential impacts from flooding rain.
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few
tornadoes
- The tornado threat has increased from the previous
assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a
few tornadoes.
- PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to
tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before
hazardous weather arrives.
- ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter
quickly.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
power and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
off roads, and boats pulled from moorings.
* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- http://maine.gov/mema/weather/hurricane.shtml
$$
Hewitt
