First Possible Snowfall Of The Season For Northern NB & Northern Maine

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FXUS61 KCAR 150210

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

910 PM EST Sun Nov 14 2021

.SYNOPSIS...

Low pressure will develop south and east of the New England

overnight. This low will intensify and track northeast away

from the area on Monday and Tuesday. A warm front will approach

Wednesday night followed by a cold front Friday morning......

Previous discussion:

Diurnal stratocumulus fields will dissipate by early this evening.

However, any partial clearing will be short lived, as an upper trof

and weak surface low approaches from the Great Lakes. This will once

again result in increasing clouds heading into tonight. Not

expecting any appreciable precipitation to make it into western

areas of the forecast area until after midnight. Across northeast

Aroostook county, precipitation might not make it in until

near, or even just after daybreak, as forecast soundings show it

may take awhile for low levels to moisten up there. As far as

precipitation types go overnight, expect primarily rain for the

Bangor region and all of downeast Maine, with a mix of rain and

snow expected across the upper Penobscot Valley and into

southeast Aroostook county. Across the north and west, any

precipitation that falls will be in the form of snow. Any snow

accumulation across the north and west overnight will be an inch

or less. Lows tonight will drop off into the upper 20s to lower

30s across the far north and low to mid 30s central and

downeast.

The surface low approaching from the west tonight will weaken.

Energy rounding the base of the approaching upper trof will give

way to a more significant low developing well to the east of

southern New England late tonight and early Monday. Models are

in good agreement that this new low will intensify as it tracks

northeast across Nova Scotia on Monday. The track of this low

will be too far east to generate significant precipitation for

northern and downeast Maine. However, a surface trof extending

back across eastern Maine from the intensifying low off shore

will result in some precipitation on Monday, primarily across

northern and eastern areas, with precipitation tapering to

showers across western areas early. Any snow across northern

areas early Monday morning will transition to mainly rain,

except a mix of snow and rain will persist across the north

Maine Woods and the crown of Maine, due to colder BL temperatures.

Highs on Monday will generally be in the mid to upper 30s north

and low to mid 40s central and downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Cyclonic flow wl continue as low pressure heads east toward

Prince Edward Island Mon evening. Upr lvl troffing wl continue

to bring disturbances thru the north into early Tue morning with

isolated snow showers occurring thru this time. Accums wl be

minor, mainly less than 1/2 inch before pcpn winds down.

Pressure gradient wl rmn tight into Tue afternoon with wind

gusts around 25 mph, possibly 30-35 mph over the higher

terrain. Winds wl rmn gusty into Tue evening before relaxing as

high pressure builds in fm the west.

Mostly cloudy skies wl continue acrs the north into Tue evening

before clearing out as high pressure and drier air rapidly

builds in fm the west. With clear skies and fairly light winds

expected drg the overnight hrs have dropped lows into the upr

teens over the North Woods with 20s elsewhere, closer to the 25th

percentile for lows. Temps fcst depends on how quickly skies can

clear Tue night though this certainly has high bust potential if

ridge axis continues to slow down, with models certainly

beginning to trend that way.

Temps on Wed are dependent on how low they fall by morning along

with how quickly clouds build in with approaching warm front.

Have lowered maxes slightly from previous forecast with isolated

showers moving into wrn zones twd the very end of the period as

warm front approaches fm the southwest.......

6:46 PM AST Sunday 14 November 2021

Special weather statement in effect for:

Mount Carleton - Renous Highway

Heavy, wet snow expected on Monday.

Total snowfall: near 10 cm with higher amounts possible.

Location: Mount Carleton region and Restigouche county.

Time Span: Beginning near noon Monday and ending Monday night.

Remarks: Heavy wet snow with amounts near 10 cm is expected but amounts reaching or exceeding 15 cm is possible.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #NBStorm.