Major Hurricane Fiona (Category 4) Could Be A Historic Storm For Our Region

000

WTNT32 KNHC 220248

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number  31

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072022

1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...FIONA'S WIND FIELD GROWING AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD...

...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF

THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...26.6N 71.2W

ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SW OF BERMUDA

ABOUT 1315 MI...2110 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours

before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force

winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 

24 to 36 hours.

Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of this

system.  Watches may be required for portions of Atlantic Canada

tomorrow morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located

near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 71.2 West.  Fiona is moving

toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A north-northeastward or 

northeastward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected 

through Friday, followed by a somewhat slower northward motion 

beginning Friday night or Saturday.  On the forecast track, the 

center of Fiona will pass just to the west of Bermuda Thursday 

night, approach Nova Scotia on Friday, and move across Nova Scotia 

and into the Gulf of St. Lawrence on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Fiona is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson

Hurricane Wind Scale.  Little change in strength is expected 

through early Friday.  Some weakening is expected to begin on 

Friday, but Fiona is forecast to still be producing hurricane-force 

winds Friday night and Saturday after it has become post-tropical.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from

the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205

miles (335 km).  NOAA buoy 41047, about 55 n mi north-northwest of 

the center of Fiona, recently reported a sustained wind of 54 mph 

(86 km/h) and a gust to 67 mph (108 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb (27.58 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Hurricane Fiona can be found in the Tropical

Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header

WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected, and hurricane

conditions are possible, on Bermuda beginning Thursday evening and 

continuing through Friday morning.

RAINFALL:  Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Bermuda: 2 to 4 inches.

Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and western Newfoundland: 3 to 6

inches, with local maximum up to 10 inches. This rainfall could

result in areas of flooding, some of which may be significant in

nature.

Eastern Quebec: 2 to 5 inches.

New Brunswick: 1 to 3 inches.

STORM SURGE:  A storm surge will cause elevated water levels along

the coast of Bermuda in areas of onshore winds beginning Thursday 

night.  Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large

and destructive waves.

SURF:  Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the northern coast

of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas.

These swells will continue to spread westward across the

southwestern Atlantic toward the east coast of the United States

and Atlantic Canada during the next day or two.  Swells from Fiona

are expected to reach Bermuda early Thursday.  The swells could

cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please

consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.

Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$

Forecaster Berg

399 

WTNT42 KNHC 220248

TCDAT2

Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number  31

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072022

1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

Just after the last advisory, a white ring in the Dvorak curve 

completely surrounded the eye, with cloud-top temperatures as cold 

as about -80 degrees Celsius.  These temperatures have warmed a bit 

since then, and the eye is not as warm as it was.  A NOAA Hurricane 

Hunter aircraft flew two passes through the eye and measured a peak 

700-mb flight-level of 119 kt and SFMR winds of 100-105 kt, but 

also found that Fiona's central pressure has fallen to 934 mb.  

Given the pressure drop, and the fact that satellite intensity 

estimates are not much lower than before, the initial intensity 

remains 115 kt (but this could be a little generous).  The plane 

also found that the 50- and 64-kt wind radii have increased in size.

Fiona is still moving just east of due north, or 010/9 kt.  The 

hurricane is expected to accelerate toward the north-northeast 

during the next 24 hours while located along the western periphery 

of the Azores-Bermuda high.  After that time, an even faster motion 

toward the northeast and north-northeast is forecast as a 

progressive deep-layer trough moves off the northeastern U.S. coast 

Thursday night and Friday, propelling Fiona toward Atlantic Canada 

at speeds of 25-30 kt.  A slower northward motion is expected by 72 

hours, with Fiona continuing across the Gulf of St. Lawrence and 

Labrador, and then over the Labrador Sea by days 4 and 5.  The 

track guidance is very tightly clustered, and the new NHC track 

forecast is mainly an update of the previous prediction.

Little change, or perhaps some fluctuations, in intensity are 

expected during the next 24 hours while Fiona remains over warm 

waters of 29-30 degrees Celsius and in a generally low-shear 

environment.  Shear increases substantially in 36-48 hours, which 

should cause some gradual weakening, and extratropical transition 

due to the aforementioned trough is expected to be complete just 

after 48 hours as the center of Fiona is approaching Nova Scotia.  

The extratropical low is forecast to continue producing 

hurricane-force winds as it crosses Nova Scotia and moves into the 

Gulf of St. Lawrence through day 3, and it is expected to continue 

producing gale-force winds as it moves across Newfoundland and 

Labrador.  The NHC intensity forecast is close to the IVCN and HCCA 

consensus aids during Fiona's tropical phase through 48 hours.  

After that time, the official forecast more closely follows the GFS 

and ECMWF global models solutions.

Based on the NOAA Hurricane Hunter data, the wind radii have been

expanded at the initial time and within the forecast.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are possible, and tropical storm conditions

are expected, on Bermuda beginning Thursday evening and continuing 

through Friday morning.

2. Fiona is expected to affect portions of Atlantic Canada as a

powerful hurricane-force cyclone late Friday and Saturday, and 

significant impacts from high winds, storm surge, and heavy

rainfall are becoming increasingly likely.  Interests in these 

areas should closely monitor the progress of Fiona and updates to 

the forecast.

3. Large swells generated by Fiona are expected to cause dangerous 

and possibly life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along 

the east coast of the United States, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and 

Atlantic Canada during the next few days.  Please consult products 

from your local weather office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 26.6N  71.2W  115 KT 130 MPH

 12H  22/1200Z 28.2N  70.5W  115 KT 130 MPH

 24H  23/0000Z 30.9N  68.7W  115 KT 130 MPH

 36H  23/1200Z 34.8N  65.1W  110 KT 125 MPH

 48H  24/0000Z 40.7N  61.7W  105 KT 120 MPH

 60H  24/1200Z 45.7N  61.4W   85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 72H  25/0000Z 48.5N  61.3W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 96H  26/0000Z 54.9N  59.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  27/0000Z 62.2N  58.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$

Forecaster Berg

000

FXUS61 KCAR 220124

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

924 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front will approach overnight and cross the area

Thursday. High pressure will build to our west Friday into

Saturday as hurricane Fiona tracks through the eastern

Maritimes. High pressure will slide to our south on Sunday while

the remnants of Fiona track into Labrador. Low pressure will

approach from the west on Monday.....

......SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Rain will come to an end from northwest to southeast Thursday

night as a cold front moves away to the southeast, though a few

showers may hang on near Eastport after midnight. As cold air

advection begins behind the front, expect lows Thursday night to

be in the upper 30s in the North Woods, 40s over most of the

area, and near 50 degrees along the coast.

An area of high pressure will build in west of the area on

Friday into Saturday. Meanwhile, Hurricane Fiona will track east

of the area Friday night into Saturday. The current forecast

brings Fiona near Cape Breton, Nova Scotia on Saturday morning

and then tracking into the Gulf of St Lawrence. This track is

expected to keep the rain shield east of the Maine/New Brunswick

border, but an isolated shower cannot be ruled out in far

eastern areas Friday night or Saturday. Fiona is expected to

transition to an extratropical cyclone as it approaches Nova

Scotia.

The main story with Fiona for the area will be increasingly

strong, gusty northwest winds. Gusts could reach 35 mph during

the day Friday over much of the area. Even stronger winds are

expected Friday night and Saturday as Fiona moves closer.

Sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph are expected. Gusts reaching

will reach over 40 mph over the area, with some gusts of 50 mph

possible, especially east. The strongest winds are expected to

occur during the day on Saturday. These winds are are capable of

producing downed trees and power outages across the area. It is

too early to issue any wind headlines, but did mention the wind

threat in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. We will continue to

monitor and update this part of the forecast as needed.

Temperatures will be below normal during the short-term period

with the strong northwesterly winds. Highs on Friday will be in

the upper 40s in parts of the North Woods, with 50s elsewhere.

Temperatures will moderate somewhat on Saturday, with 50s in the

north, and lower to mid 60s near Bangor and along the coast.

Lows Friday night will be in the mid to upper 30s north, with

40s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Winds will subside Saturday night as the extratropical remnants

of Fiona pull away to the north. Shortwave riding will bring a

dry day on Sunday, with near normal temperatures. A low pressure

system associated with a trough over the Great Lakes will track

across the area late Sunday night through Monday. Confidence is

relatively high in showers with this system, so went high to

chance to likely pops over much of the area. Models show an

upper level low hanging near the area Monday night and Tuesday,

so kept a chance of showers in the forecast for that time.

Temperatures are expected to be near normal during the long-term

period.....

8:37 PM ADT Wednesday 21 September 2022

Tropical cyclone information statement for:

New Brunswick:

Acadian Peninsula

Bathurst and Chaleur Region

Kent County

Kouchibouguac National Park

Miramichi and area

Moncton and Southeast New Brunswick

Newfoundland and Labrador:

Cartwright to Black Tickle

Newfoundland

Norman Bay to Lodge Bay

Red Bay to L'Anse-au-Clair

Nova Scotia:

Annapolis County

Antigonish County

Colchester County - Cobequid Bay

Colchester County - Truro and south

Colchester County North

Cumberland County - Minas Shore

Cumberland County North and Cobequid Pass

Guysborough County

Halifax County - east of Porters Lake

Halifax Metro and Halifax County West

Hants County

Inverness County - Mabou and north

Inverness County - south of Mabou

Kings County

Lunenburg County

Pictou County

Queens County

Richmond County

Sydney Metro and Cape Breton County

Victoria County

Prince Edward Island

Québec - south:

Anticosti

Blanc-Sablon

Chevery

Forillon National Park - Gaspé - Percé

Grande-Vallée area

Îles-de-la-Madeleine

Minganie

Murdochville area

Natashquan

New Carlisle - Chandler

New Richmond - Bonaventure area

The next information statement will be issued by 3:00 a.m. ADT.

Fiona expected to impact Atlantic Canada and eastern Quebec with heavy rainfall and powerful hurricane force winds for the start of the weekend.

1. Summary of basic information at 09:00 p.m. ADT.

Location: 26.2 North 71.5 West.

About 950 km southwest of Bermuda.

Maximum sustained winds: 213 kilometres per hour.

Present movement: north at 19 kilometres per hour.

Minimum central pressure: 937 millibars.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

This storm is shaping up to be a potentially severe event for Atlantic Canada and eastern Quebec. Numerous weather models are quite consistent in their prediction of what we call a deep hybrid low pressure system, possessing both tropical and intense winter storm-type properties (but with very heavy rainfall and severe winds).

The latest forecast guidance brings hurricane Fiona off-shore to the south of Nova Scotia Friday night, passing through eastern Nova Scotia and Cape Breton Saturday, and then reaching the Lower Quebec North Shore and Southeastern Labrador early Sunday. Severe winds and rainfall will have major impacts for eastern Prince Edward Island, eastern Nova Scotia, western Newfoundland, eastern Quebec, and southeastern Labrador. There will also be large waves, especially for the Atlantic coasts of Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, and eastern portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Finally, there is a high likelihood of storm surge for parts of Nova Scotia, the Gulf of St. Lawrence and western Newfoundland.

a. Wind.

Most regions will experience some hurricane force winds. These severe winds will begin impacting the region late Friday and will continue on Saturday. Similar cyclones of this nature have produced structural damage to buildings. Construction sites may be particularly vulnerable. Wind impacts will likely be enhanced by foliage on the trees, potentially causing prolonged utility outages

b. Rainfall.

Rainfall will be significant, especially north and west of Fiona's track, where heavy rain could lead to flooding. The highest rainfall amounts are likely for eastern Nova Scotia, southwestern Newfoundland and the Gulf of St. Lawrence region. Forecast guidance is suggesting widespread amounts of 100 to 200 mm, but closer to the path of Fiona, more than 200 mm is likely. Some districts have received large quantities of rain recently, and excessive runoff may exacerbate the flooding potential.

c. Surge/Waves.

There will also be some rough and pounding surf, especially for parts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. Large waves will reach the eastern shore of Nova Scotia Friday night and build to more than 10 metres. These waves will likely reach southern Newfoundland by Saturday morning. Some of the waves over eastern portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence could be higher than 7 metres. Waves will break higher along some of the coastlines, and dangerous rip currents are likely. Storm surge will also be a threat for parts of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, including the Northumberland Strait, the Gulf of St. Lawrence region including Iles-de-la-Madeleine, and southwest Newfoundland, but it is too early to provide details on which portions of the coastline may be affected the most.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Hurricane force southeasterlies should spread into Scotian Slope waters Friday evening, and these hurricane force southeasterlies will persist near and south of the track. As the storm moves into the Maritimes, storm to hurricane force northwesterlies will likely develop behind it. Waves in excess of 12 metres should form south and east of the hurricane track, beginning Friday night. These large waves will likely reach the south coast of Newfoundland early Saturday, and parts of the Gulf of St. Lawrence later in the day.

Forecaster(s): Clements/Couturier/Mercer.

FXCN31 CWHX 220000

Tropical cyclone technical information statement issued by the

Canadian Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 8.40 PM ADT

Wednesday 21 September 2022.

The next statement will be issued by 3.00 AM ADT

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 9.00 PM ADT, hurricane Fiona was located near latitude 26.0 N and

longitude 71.2 W, about 513 nautical miles or 949 km southwest of

Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 120 knots (222

km/h) and central pressure at 936 MB. Fiona is moving north at 10

knots (19 km/h).

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date     time     lat    lon   MSLP  Max wind

          ADT                    MB  kts  kmh

Sep 21  9.00 PM  26.0N  71.2W   936  120  222

Sep 22  9.00 AM  28.5N  70.4W   936  120  222

Sep 22  9.00 PM  31.1N  68.6W   936  120  222

Sep 23  9.00 AM  34.7N  65.8W   937  120  222

Sep 23  9.00 PM  40.1N  62.7W   937  110  204

Sep 24  9.00 AM  45.3N  60.9W   930   90  167 post-tropical

Sep 24  9.00 PM  48.6N  60.6W   939   70  130 post-tropical

Sep 25  9.00 AM  51.5N  60.2W   947   55  102 post-tropical

Sep 25  9.00 PM  54.4N  59.9W   958   45   83 post-tropical

Sep 26  9.00 AM  57.6N  60.0W   958   35   65 post-tropical

3. Technical discussion

A. Analysis

Fiona, a category 4 hurricane, is continuing northward. Satellite

presentation of Fiona has improved once again this afternoon with a

new burst of deep convection wrapping almost entirely around the

centre. A curved band of convection has persisted today well to the

east and northeast of the centre, with overshooting tops now present

on visible and ir channels within this feature. Maximum sustained

winds are estimated at 120 kts, and the central pressure is estimated

at 935 MB.  The motion is northward at 10 knots.

B. Prognostic

Current indications suggest little change in intensity in the next

day or so, as the hurricane travels in a moist environment over very

warm waters under light to moderate wind shear. In the next 12 to 18

hours, the hurricane should begin to turn to the northeast and then

accelerate as a mid-latitude trough approaches from the west,

bringing the hurricane near Sable Island Friday night as it undergoes

extra-tropical transition. Then post-tropical storm Fiona is expected

to make landfall over Eastern Mainland Nova Scotia or Cape Breton

Island Saturday morning while maintaining sustained hurricane force

winds.  The forecast track has been shifted slighty westward again

with this update, to reflect the tight clustering of deterministic

and ensemble guidance in the latest runs. The cumulative qpf field

from the rdps/gdps suite is indicating a pre-cursor rainfall event

well ahead of the centre beginning as early as Friday morning or

afternoon. Rainfall totals suggested by the main models are showing

more than 200 mm north and northwest of the track.

C. Predicted wind radii (NM)

Time          gales           storms            hurricane

         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW

22/00Z  155 150 100 130    80  75  50  65    45  40  30  40

22/12Z  170 175 120 140    85  85  60  70    50  50  35  45

23/00Z  190 195 145 150    95  95  75  80    55  50  35  50

23/12Z  210 215 175 170   105 110  90  85    60  50  25  40

24/00Z  305 330 280 265   185 185 155 155   105  90  55  75

24/12Z  385 400 370 335   195 205 180 200   105  95  50  65

25/00Z  365 335 340 285   100 125  90  90    65  60   0  20

25/12Z  240 230 210 205    70  90  30   0     0   0   0   0

26/00Z   70 130  70 130     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0

26/12Z   70 130  70 130     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0

END/MERCER/COUTURIER/CLEMENTS