Intense Ocean Storm Rages At Sea
297
FXUS61 KCAR 290232
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
932 PM EST Thu Jan 28 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track well south of the region tonight into
Friday, with a trof extending back toward the coast. High
pressure will build toward the region Saturday, then cross the
region Sunday. Low pressure will approach from the south later
Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
930 PM Update: Models in the near term generally agree that
banding currently over NE and E Cntrl ptns of the FA will
move SSW durg the ovrngt. The question then becomes where will
banding pick-up ovr Downeast areas of the FA as strong
900-750mb frontogenesis commences with a Norlund like inverted
sfc trof xtndg NW from low pres well SSE ovr the open Atlc, as
energy alf conts to slide ovr this ptn of our Rgn with the
upper low crossing across the Gulf of ME. Models and meso-
models vary a little with this forcing, with the 12z dtmnstc
CanGem perhaps most ominous for coastal Hancock county durg the
erly morn hrs Fri. For now, will hold off on issuing any wntr wx
advs given this uncertainty of banding psn and the fact this
evolution will not completely reveal itself until well into the
upcoming mdngt shift.
Otherwise, fcst hrly temps/dwpts were updated into the late ngt
hrs based on trends seen from latest sfc obs, with no chgs to
fcst ovrngt lows attm. Snfl totals were also updated a little
based on radar ref trends, with amts increased from the prev stm
total a little msly between Caribou and Danforth.
Prev Disc: Surface low pressure will track well southeast of
the Gulf of Maine tonight into Friday, with a trof extending
back across the Gulf of Maine toward the Downeast coast.
However, uncertainty still exists regarding the exact location
and movement of the trof. At the same time, an upper level low
will move south across New England. Convergence along the trof
will help focus an area of snow tonight into Friday. Whether the
heavier snow along the trof remains mostly offshore or reaches
the Downeast coast is still uncertain. Generally expect snow
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches along the Downeast coast tonight
through Friday morning. A narrow corridor of locally heavier
accumulations is also possible somewhere along the Downeast
coast dependent on the location, persistence and movement of the
trof which could produce advisory level snow totals. At this
point, the area which seems to have the best potential for
locally greater snows is coastal Hancock county. Have not issued
any advisories at this time due to the uncertainty regarding
snow totals and the expected duration of the event. Snow totals
diminish across interior Downeast areas, with generally 2 to 3
inch accumulations expected. Snow totals keep diminishing
northward across the remainder of the forecast area, tapering to
around an inch or less across northern areas. The trof will
pivot southwest then south later Friday. Snow will diminish
across northern areas Friday morning, then across Downeast areas
through the afternoon. Gusty north/northwest winds are also
expected Friday. Low temperatures tonight will range from around
5 to around 10 north, through the teens interior Downeast with
mid teens to lower 20s along the Downeast coast. High
temperatures Friday will range through the teens north, to the
lower to mid 20s interior Downeast with mid to upper 20s along
the Downeast coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Snow associated with the inverted trof will be offshore by early
Friday evening, Expect partly to mostly cloudy sky conditions
overnight. Lows will range from the single digits below zero across
the colder northern valleys to the single digits above zero
Downeast.
Upper level low pressure continues to move southeast of the Gulf of
Maine Saturday and Saturday night. Meanwhile, high pressure at the
surface will slowly build toward the region through Sunday.
Expect dry conditions both weekend days with partly to mostly
sunny sky conditions. Saturday will be the coldest of the two
weekend days with highs ranging from the low to mid teens north
and around 20 downeast. It will be milder on Sunday with highs
ranging from the lower 20s north and mid 20s downeast. Lows
Saturday night will once again dip below zero across the colder
northern valleys to the single digits above zero downeast.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunday night and Monday will continue dry as high pressure remains
across the region while low pressure redevelops across the Mid
Atlantic region. Still a lot of uncertainty with regard to the
eventual impacts this system will have on northern and Downeast
Maine as we head into the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. There
still is a lot of spread with regard to the GFS/EC ensembles. At
this point, looks like snow would begin to overspread Downeast
areas later Monday night and then push north on Tuesday. Just
how far north the snow makes it is still uncertain, as this will
ultimately depend on the eventual track of the low. Have stayed
with the NBM which brings likely pops downeast later Monday
night into Tuesday, with likley pops as far north as Houlton on
Tuesday, and then chance pops across the far north. The snow may
continue into Wednesday as the system moves slowly out to sea.
Drier weather moves back in for Thursday. High temperatures
through the longer term will tend to average above normal for
this time of year.....
posted by Advackia at 7:32 PM
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