FXCA62 TJSJ 050255
AFDSJU
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1055 PM AST Wed Oct 4 2023
...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1024 PM AST Wed Oct 4 2023
Philippe will move northward over the Atlantic Ocean, lifting
moisture from the Caribbean Sea over the region away from the
islands. Showers will affect the U.S. Virgin Islands and the
southern and eastern sections of Puerto Rico, including Vieques
and Culebra. Rivers are across the eastern third of Puerto Rico
are running high. Soils are already saturated, and additional
rains may result in mudslides or landslides across steep terrains.
Unstable weather conditions will last through at least Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1024 PM AST Wed Oct 4 2023
Light SHRAs will persist, especially across the eastern third of
PR and the USVI overnight. -SHRA/SHRA will move over JSJ/IST/ISX
under a southerly wind flow between 5 and 15 knots. The potential
for TSRA will persist through the the fcst period especially
between 05/15-22z. JSJ/IST/ISX may be impacted by the afternoon
convection tomorrow, reducing VIS between 1-3 SM at times.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1024 PM AST Wed Oct 4 2023
Mariners expect hazardous marine conditions due to choppy seas up
to 7 feet across the Atlantic Offshore Waters and up to 6
elsewhere. Philippe induces a southerly wind flow between 15 and
20 knots, but gusty winds up to 30 kts are possible, especially
near showers and thunderstorms. A Small Craft Advisory is in
effect for the Atlantic Offshore Waters. Elsewhere, please
exercise caution.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...Cloudy skies prevailed across the local islands
throughout the day with numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms
noted early in the morning across south central and southeast
Puerto Rico as well as the outlying islands. Showery conditions
will maintain an elevated risk for urban and small stream flooding
as well as isolated flash flooding through at least Friday.
Weather conditions are expected to improve during the upcoming
weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Tonight thru Friday...
Upper level trough across the western Atlantic and Tropical Storm
Philippe now located 225 miles north northwest of Saint Thomas, will
continue to promote moisture advection across the local islands
through at least Friday. As a result, wet conditions will continue
to prevail with periods of showers and thunderstorms mainly across
the east and south sections of Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra and the
US Virgin Islands. With these showers and thunderstorms, additional
rainfall amounts are expected to range between 2 and 4 inches...
with isolated higher amounts possible. Therefore, the main hazard
is still the risk of urban and small stream flooding as well as
isolated flash flooding and mudslides.
Locally induced afternoon showers across the northern slopes of
Puerto Rico cant be ruled out on Thursday and Friday, but it will be
highly depended on the cloud cover across the area. Overall, the
weather conditions are expected to improve by the upcoming weekend
with PW values dropping below 2.0 inches by Sunday.
Preliminary rainfall totals...from 800 AM AST yesterday through 2
PM AST this afternoon...are ranging between 2 to 4 inches across
the southern slopes of Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra and the US
Virgin Islands with isolated higher amounts up to 8 inches in
Saint John.
&&
.LONG TERM...FROM PREV DISC.../428 AM AST Wed Oct 4 2023/
Saturday through Wednesday...
As Tropical Storm Philippe continues to move northward into the
western Atlantic, a southerly wind flow will continue across the
surface to lower levels, becoming more southeasterly Sunday onward.
Lingering moisture is expected on Saturday. By Sunday, surface
ridge begins to establish east- northeast of the northern Lesser
Antilles bringing drier air into the area. This will significantly
reduce rain activity compared to what was experience the days
prior. However each afternoon, thunderstorms are likely to form
across the interior to northwestern section of Puerto Rico. Then
on Tuesday, the possible arrival of a band of moisture may enhance
the day`s rainfall amounts, followed by drier air on Wednesday.
During this long term period, southerly to southeasterly surface
winds will cause hot afternoon conditions across the islands,
especially northern coastal sections of Puerto Rico. Expect heat
indices to reach above 107F in some areas each afternoon.......
000
WTNT32 KNHC 050238
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 04 2023
...PHILIPPE STILL PRODUCING RAINS IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 66.1W
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM N OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 590 MI...955 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Interests in eastern New England and Atlantic Canada should monitor
the progress of Philippe.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 66.1 West. Philippe is
moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion
with an increase in forward speed is expected through Saturday. On
the forecast track, the center of Philippe will pass near Bermuda
on Friday, and approach eastern New England and Atlantic Canada on
Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml
RAINFALL: Rainfall will begin to affect Bermuda on Thursday with
rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches expected through Friday.
These rainfall amounts could result in scattered flash flooding.
Rainfall across Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands
should diminish on Thursday.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning
Thursday night.
SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico for another day or so. Large swells are already
affecting Bermuda from another weather system but will begin to
increase further on Thursday as Philippe approaches the island.
These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
currents. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
000
WTNT42 KNHC 050242
TCDAT2
Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 04 2023
Philippe has generally changed little during the past several hours.
The storm still resembles an elongated trough in satellite images
with a north-south oriented area of deep convection extending a
couple of hundred north and several hundred miles south of the
center. Areas of heavy rain continue to linger near Puerto Rico and
the Virgin Islands. Since the system appears to be steady in
strength, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt based on the
earlier aicraft data. This wind speed estimate is also in line with
the latest satellite intensity estimates.
The storm is moving northward at 11 kt in the flow between a ridge
over the central Atlantic and a mid- to upper-level low off the
Florida coast. This northward motion with an increase in forward
speed is expected during the next few days, taking the center
of the system across Bermuda in 36-48 hours. Philippe will likely
turn northwestward into Maine and Atlantic Canada this weekend when
another trough cuts off over the northeastern U.S. The NHC track
forecast is similar to the previous one and near the middle of the
guidance envelope.
Nearly all of the models show slow strengthening during the next 2
or 3 days, which seems to be due to baroclinic influences from the
trough/low currently east of Florida. The mid- to upper-level
trough/low will likely merge with Philippe in 48-60 hours, which
should cause the system to develop frontal features and become
extratropical after it passes Bermuda. The post-tropical cyclone
is expected to weaken once it moves inland over Maine and Atlantic
Canada. The NHC intensity forecast also lies near the middle of
the guidance envelope.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
Thursday night, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Heavy
rainfall will begin to affect the island on Thursday.
2. Philippe is likely to move over portions of Atlantic Canada and
eastern New England, likely as a post-tropical cyclone, this
weekend. Regardless of Philippe's intensity or structure, interests
in those areas should monitor the storm's progress and be prepared
for the possibility of strong winds and heavy rainfall.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0300Z 23.8N 66.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 25.4N 66.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 28.4N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 31.9N 65.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 35.3N 66.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 39.0N 66.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 43.3N 67.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/0000Z 51.6N 73.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
