Erika weakens to a Tropical Depression

000
WTNT31 KNHC 032037
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
500 PM AST THU SEP 03 2009

...ERIKA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...ALL WARNINGS
DISCONTINUED...

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ASSOCIATED WITH
ERIKA HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

INTERESTS IN NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERIKA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.3 WEST OR ABOUT
130 MILES...205 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND
ABOUT 325 MILES...525 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...ERIKA OR ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF PUERTO
RICO TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR OR OVER HISPANIOLA ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ERIKA
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON FRIDAY. ERIKA COULD ALSO
DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE AT ANY TIME.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IF 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO
RICO...AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.7N 65.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

000
WTNT41 KNHC 032038
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
500 PM AST THU SEP 03 2009

THE CENTER OF ERIKA IS EXPOSED AS A LOW-LEVEL SWIRL MOVING OUT AHEAD
OF THE WANING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1007 MB...BUT WERE UNABLE TO FIND ANY WINDS TO
SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM STATUS. AS A RESULT...ERIKA IS DOWNGRADED TO
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/10...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AND THE MAJORITY OF ALL THE MODEL
GUIDANCE. SINCE ERIKA SHOULD MOVE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...THE
SHALLOW BAM MODEL WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR THE NEW FORECAST TRACK.
THIS FORECAST TURNS ERIKA TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...TAKING THE
CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANT LOW SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND OVER HISPANIOLA
...WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE OVER THE RUGGED
TERRAIN IN 48 HOURS.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT ERIKA WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
SUSTAINING ANY DEEP CONVECTION AS IT MOVES INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF
INCREASING SHEAR AND DRY AIR IN THE LOWER TO MID-TROPOSPHERE. ERIKA
IS MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THROUGH 12 HOURS...AND IS
FORECAST TO BE A REMNANT LOW BY 24 HOURS....ALTHOUGH THIS COULD
OCCUR SOONER IF THE CONVECTION EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT
THE CENTER OF ERIKA COULD BECOME POORLY DEFINED AND THE CYCLONE
COULD DEVOLVE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE AT ANY TIME. EVEN IF ERIKA LOSES
TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS...ITS REMNANTS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2100Z 16.7N 65.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 17.2N 66.8W 30 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 18.1N 68.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 05/0600Z 18.9N 70.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 05/1800Z 19.5N 72.2W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
72HR VT 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN