Tropical Storm Andrea Update Two
000 WTNT41 KNHC 070235 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013 1100 PM EDT THU JUN 06 2013 ANDREA HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY SINCE MOVING INLAND EARLIER THIS EVENING. THE ONLY REPORT OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ON LAND OR OVER WATER HAS COME FROM A SHIP OBSERVATION EAST OF SAINT AUGUSTINE...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KT. ANY WINDS THIS STRONG ARE LIKELY OCCURRING IN RANBANDS OFFSHORE TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ANDREA BEARS LITTLE RESEMBLANCE TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH A PRONOUNCED DRY INTRUSION NOTED OVER AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IN A BAND WELL REMOVED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THAT ONLY SHALLOW CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTER... INTERACTION WITH BAROCLINIC FEATURES WILL INCREASINGLY BECOME THE MECHANISM SUPPORTING THE CYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS ANDREA IS ABSORBED BY A LIFTING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEW NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS THINKING...AND SHOWS ANDREA BECOMING POST-TROPICAL BY 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER IF THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE DOES NOT IMPROVE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/13...AS THE CENTER SLOWED A LITTLE WHILE MOVING ONSHORE. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE CYCLONE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND THEN TURNING QUICKLY EASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE NEW NHC FORECST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION AND IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AFTERWARD. THE NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AND ALSO LIES NEAR THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT ANDREA WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...WE DO NOT EXPECT TO EXTEND THE TROPICAL WARNINGS ANY FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST. OUR CURRENT INTENTION IS THAT ANY HAZARDOUS WIND CONDITIONS FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE HANDLED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING PRODUCTS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 30.3N 82.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 07/1200Z 33.0N 80.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 08/0000Z 36.8N 76.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 08/1200Z 41.0N 70.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 09/0000Z 44.7N 63.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/0000Z 45.5N 46.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/0000Z 45.5N 24.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
WOCN31 CWHX 062345
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8:49 PM ADT THURSDAY
6 JUNE 2013.
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TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
ATLANTIC PROVINCES.
FOR TROPICAL STORM ANDREA.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3:00 AM ADT.
REMNANTS OF ANDREA TO BRING POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN AND MODERATE
WINDS TO ATLANTIC CANADA THIS WEEKEND.
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==DISCUSSION==
1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 9.00 PM ADT.
LOCATION: NEAR 29.8 NORTH 83.0 WEST.
ABOUT 145 KILOMETRES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 85 KM/H.
PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTHEAST NEAR 24 KM/H.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 MB.
2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.
AS EXPECTED...THE CENTRE OF ANDREA MOVED INLAND OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA
THURSDAY EVENING AND WILL SYSTEM WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY THE END
OF THE DAY FRIDAY AND DEVELOP A DISTINCT WARM FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND
AHEAD OF THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO THE
MARITIMES BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY OVER NOVA SCOTIA.
THE CENTRE OF THE REMNANT LOW COULD TRACK JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
OR AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL NEW BRUNSWICK. A FARTHER NORTH TRACK WILL
BRIEFLY BRING A MUGGY AIRMASS AND PRODUCE SOME MODERATE WINDS OVER
NOVA SCOTIA AND PEI. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT NEWFOUNDLAND
ON SUNDAY.
A. WIND.
WHILE THE REMAINS OF ANDREA WILL BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
MARITIMES ON SATURDAY, AT THIS TIME IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT WINDS WILL
REACH WARNING CRITERIA (GUSTS OF 90 KM/H) OVER INLAND REGIONS.
BY EARLY FRIDAY WE WILL HAVE MORE DETAILS ON WHAT TO EXPECT.
B. RAINFALL.
THE PRIMARY FACTOR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE RAINFALL.
EXPECT HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVER PARTS OF THE MARITIME PROVINCES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK. CURRENTLY WE EXPECT THE TRACK OF THE CENTRE OF THE LOW TO BE
NEAR OR OVER NOVA SCOTIA, SO NOVA SCOTIA CURRENTLY STANDS TO SEE THE
MOST RAIN FROM IT. HOWEVER, A TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL NEW BRUNSWICK
(NORTHERN SCENARIO) WOULD MEAN HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER THAT PROVINCE.
RAINFALL WARNINGS (GREATER THAN 50 MILLIMETRES) MAY BE ISSUED ON
FRIDAY FOR SOME REGIONS.
C. SURGE/WAVES.
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME. A TRACK ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK WOULD RESULT IN SOME MODERATE WAVE ACTIVITY
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND BAY OF FUNDY REGION BUT
NOTHING TO CAUSE CONCERN AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, STAY TUNED IN CASE
THE STORM INTENSIFIES SOMEWHAT OFF THE U.S. COAST WHICH IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY. IN ANY CASE, THE LOW WILL BE PRIMARILY NON-TROPICAL IN
NATURE.
3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE QUITE LIKELY WITH THE SYSTEM OVER MARITIME
WATERS, AND EVENTUALLY OVER NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS ON SUNDAY.
VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE
LATEST:
- FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE.
- STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE.
- HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP.
- TECHNICAL DISCUSSION.
PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA.
END
OCN14 CWHX 061852
Special weather statement issued by Environment Canada at 3:52 PM ADT
Thursday 6 June 2013.
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Special weather statement for:
=new= New Brunswick.
Remnants of Andrea to bring potentially heavy rain and strong
Winds to Atlantic Canada this weekend.
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==discussion==
Tropical storm Andrea, currently located near Florida, is expected to
become post-tropical and then approach the Maritimes this weekend.
This system is expected to bring significant rainfall to Southern New
Brunswick beginning late Friday night and continuing throughout the
day Saturday. There is potential for the rain to be heavy at times
in some locations, and rainfall warnings may be required.
Moderate to strong winds associated with this system are also
expected to affect parts of the province this weekend.
The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as
warnings may be required or extended.
Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca
End
WOCN11 CWHX 061852
Special weather statement issued by Environment Canada at 3:52 PM ADT
Thursday 6 June 2013.
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Special weather statement for:
=new= Mainland Nova Scotia
=new= Cape Breton.
Remnants of Andrea to bring potentially heavy rain and strong
Winds to Atlantic Canada this weekend.
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==discussion==
Tropical storm Andrea, currently located near Florida, is expected to
become post-tropical and then approach the Maritimes this weekend.
This system is expected to bring significant rainfall to Nova Scotia
beginning late Friday night and continuing throughout the day
Saturday. There is potential for the rain to be heavy at times in
some locations, and rainfall warnings may be required. Moderate to
strong winds associated with this system are also expected to affect
parts of the province this weekend.
The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as
warnings may be required.
Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca
End
posted by Advackia at 8:15 PM
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