Hurricane Kyle Update 6

000
WTNT31 KNHC 290233
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KYLE ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 28 2008

...KYLE LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT PASSES NOVA SCOTIA...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT KYLE IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST
OF MAINE IS DISCONTINUED.

THE HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE COUNTIES OF DIGBY...
YARMOUTH...AND SHELBURNE IN SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA CANADA HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED. WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA AND SPREAD INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW
BRUNSWICK OVERNIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF KYLE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 44.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.9 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES...60
KM...SOUTH OF SAINT JOHN NEW BRUNSWICK.

KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/HR. A MOTION TO
THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AT
A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED...TAKING THE REMNANTS OF KYLE OVER EASTERN
NEW BRUNSWICK TONIGHT.

ALTHOUGH KYLE IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...IT CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE STRONG WINDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 MILES...390 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 INCH OR LESS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF MAINE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER NEW BRUNSWICK AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER LEVELS IN
THE BAY OF FUNDY...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES....WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...44.8 N...65.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 26 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

000
WTNT41 KNHC 290235
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE OR NO DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH KYLE...AND THE SYSTEM WAS UNCLASSIFIABLE USING THE
DVORAK TECHNIQUE. CONSEQUENTLY...KYLE IS CONSIDERED TO BE
EXTRATROPICAL AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY. A QUIKSCAT PASS
AT 23Z SHOWED ONE HURRICANE FORCE WIND VECTOR. THE MAXIMUM WINDS
ARE ASSUMED TO HAVE DECREASED A BIT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND
ARE NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KT. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND OVER NEW BRUNSWICK.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/23...WHICH IS LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF KYLE IS BEING ERODED BY THE LARGE LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND AS A MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE
BYPASSES KYLE TO THE NORTH ITS FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO
SLOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE MISSED THE
MORE NORTHWARD TURN THIS EVENING...AND AS A RESULT I'VE PLACED THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE 18Z UKMET.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0300Z 44.8N 65.9W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
12HR VT 29/1200Z 47.2N 64.6W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 30/0000Z 49.5N 63.7W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 30/1200Z 50.6N 63.7W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 01/0000Z 51.5N 64.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Hurricane Kyle Costal Watches and Warnings Update 4

WTCN31 CWHX 290205
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE
OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 11:05 PM ADT SUNDAY 28 SEPTEMBER 2008.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR:
=NEW= SHELBURNE COUNTY
=NEW= YARMOUTH COUNTY
=NEW= DIGBY COUNTY
LUNENBURG COUNTY
QUEENS COUNTY NOVA SCOTIA
ANNAPOLIS COUNTY
SAINT JOHN AND COUNTY
GRAND MANAN AND COASTAL CHARLOTTE COUNTY
MONCTON AND SOUTHEAST NEW BRUNSWICK
FUNDY NATIONAL PARK.

TROPICAL STORM KYLE IS MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD NEW BRUNSWICK.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT SUSTAINED GALES...WINDS OF
63 KM/H OR MORE. BY NATURE A TROPICAL STORM ALSO IMPLIES THE
THREAT OF LOCAL FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
AT 9PM ADT KYLE WENT ASHORE JUST NORTH OF YARMOUTH AS A
MARGINAL CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE. REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED SO
FAR OF SOME TREES DOWNED AND ALONG WITH POWER OUTAGES.

WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM KYLE CAN STILL CAUSE DAMAGE
WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 110 KM/H OVER EXPOSED AREAS.

KYLE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO MOST OF NEW
BRUNSWICK WHERE RAINFALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED. 50 TO 100
MILLIMETRES OF RAIN COULD FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. EMO NEW
BRUNSWICK REMINDS THE PUBLIC THAT RAINFALL IN THESE AMOUNTS IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME CAN RESULT IN RAPID INCREASE IN WATER LEVELS IN
STREAMS AND RIVERS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

END/CHC

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WWCN31 CWHX 290155
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE
OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 10:55 PM ADT SUNDAY 28 SEPTEMBER 2008.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
HURRICANE WARNING ENDED FOR:
SHELBURNE COUNTY
YARMOUTH COUNTY
DIGBY COUNTY.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
HURRICANE KYLE HAS WEAKENED TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. AS A
RESULT..
HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE ENDED BUT A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT TO ACCOUNT FOR STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE SYSTEM.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

END/ASPC

Hurricane Kyle Update 5

000
WTNT31 KNHC 282358
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KYLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
800 PM AST SUN SEP 28 2008

...KYLE POUNDING NOVA SCOTIA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COUNTIES OF DIGBY...
YARMOUTH...AND SHELBURNE IN SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA CANADA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM STONINGTON MAINE
EASTWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE...SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK CANADA...AND
THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
NOVA SCOTIA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KYLE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KYLE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 44.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.2 WEST. THIS POSITION IS
NEAR THE WESTERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA JUST NORTH OF YARMOUTH...AND
ABOUT 95 MILES...150 KM...SOUTH OF SAINT JOHN.

KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 30 MPH...48 KM/HR. A MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE CENTER OF KYLE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS OVER NEW BRUNSWICK TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KYLE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. KYLE
IS LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL LATER THIS EVENING.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF MAINE...NEW
BRUNSWICK...NOVA SCOTIA...AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER LEVELS IN
THE BAY OF FUNDY...AND ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES....ARE LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF NOVA SCOTIA.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...44.0 N...66.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 30 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WOCN31 CWHX 290000 CAB
HURRICANE KYLE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT SUNDAY
28 SEPTEMBER 2008.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT

... CORRECTED THE WIND SPEEDS OVER NEW BRUNSWICK AND GULF WATERS ...

...HURRICANE KYLE NEAR THE COAST OF YARMOUTH AND DIGBY COUNTIES...



1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE KYLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.7 N
AND LONGITUDE 66.3 W... ABOUT 15 NAUTICAL MILES OR 30 KM
SOUTHWEST OF YARMOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS... 120 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 986
MB. KYLE IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 13 KNOTS... 24 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
SEP 28 9.00 PM 43.7N 66.3W 986 65 120
SEP 29 3.00 AM 45.3N 65.6W 992 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 29 9.00 AM 46.4N 64.9W 1000 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 29 3.00 PM 47.5N 64.4W 1001 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 29 9.00 PM 48.5N 63.8W 1001 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 30 3.00 AM 49.2N 63.3W 1002 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 30 9.00 AM 49.9N 62.9W 1003 25 46 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 30 3.00 PM 50.6N 62.4W 1003 25 46 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 30 9.00 PM 51.2N 62.0W 1003 25 46 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR DIGBY YARMOUTH AND SHELBURNE
COUNTIES IN NOVA SCOTIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS MAINTAINED
FOR QUEENS COUNTY OF NOVA SCOTIA LUNENBURG COUNTY ANNAPOLIS COUNTY
SAINT JOHN AND COUNTY AND GRAND MANAN AND COASTAL CHARLOTTE
COUNTY IN NEW BRUNSWICK FUNDY NATIONAL PARK MONCTON AND
SOUTHEAST NEW BRUNSWICK. WIND GUSTS OF 90 TO 130 KM/H CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT EXCEPT GUSTS 70 TO 100 OVER THE NEW BRUNSWICK SOUTHERN
SECTIONS.
THE ATLANTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A STORM SURGE
WARNING FOR HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS ALONG THE COAST OF
YARMOUTH AND SHELBURNE COUNTIES. THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE
AND WAVE SETUP ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WATER LEVELS OF MORE
THAN 1.0 METRE ABOVE THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WHICH WILL BE
OCCURRING WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE STORM ARRIVING
THIS EVENING. BASED ON HISTORICAL PRECEDENTS THIS COMBINATION
COULD CAUSE SOME COASTAL FLOODING.

IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA
AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK WILL LIKELY ENCOUNTER
TREE DAMAGE DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS OF KYLE EITHER THIS
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. DURING SIMILAR EVENTS IN THE
PAST THESE WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN DOWNED POWER LINES AND DAMAGE TO
STRUCTURES DUE TO FALLEN TREES. ALL PREPARATIONS TO SECURE ANY LOOSE
OBJECTS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY THIS TIME.

RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NEW BRUNSWICK
WHERE 50 TO 100 MILLIMETRES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH KYLE. THIS
IS IN ADDITION TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT FELL PRIOR TO
KYLE'S ARRIVAL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE CONFINED WEST OF WHERE
KYLE EVENTUALLY MAKES LANDFALL. EMO NEW BRUNSWICK REMINDS THE PUBLIC
THAT RAINFALL IN THESE AMOUNTS OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME CAN
RESULT IN A RAPID WATER LEVEL INCREASE IN STREAMS AND RIVERS
AND CAUSED LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE GASPÉ
PENINSULA AND SOUTHEASTERN SHORE OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
REGIONS OF QUÉBEC. THIS AREA WILL SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR OR
EXCEEDING 50 MILLIMETRES AS POST TROPICAL STORM KYLE INTERACTS
WITH A FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.

ON ITS CURRENT TRACK KYLE WILL BE PASSING JUST WEST OF YARMOUTH NOVA
SCOTIA AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE IN YARMOUTH. THE RESULTING STORM
SURGE ON TOP OF THE DANGEROUS ROUGH SURF FROM KYLE MAY LEAD TO
SHORELINE EROSION AND DAMAGE TO THE COASTAL INFRASTRUCTURE
MAINLY IN YARMOUTH AND SHELBURNE COUNTIES.


4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
THE GEORGES BANK BUOY REPORTED STRONG TO HURRICANE FORCE OF
69 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM CENTRE PASSED WEST OF THE
BUOY WHICH REPORTED AN 11.0 M SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS.

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE CONTINUED FOR GEORGES AND
BROWNS BANK AND FOR THE LURCHER MARINE AREA. STORM WARNINGS
ARE CONTINUED FOR FUNDY GRAND MANAN AND THE SOUTHWESTERN SHORE
WESTERN LAHAVE AND NORTHWESTERN WEST SCOTIAN SLOPE MARINE
AREA. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NOVA
SCOTIA WATERS AND GULF OF ST LAWRENCE WATERS.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS
REPORTS FROM BUOYS SATELLITES SHIPS AND LAND STATIONS INDICATES
THAT STORM TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXISTS IN THE VICINITY
OF HURRICANE KYLE. AT 9 PM THIS EVENING THE ESTIMATED POSITION IS
JUST WEST OR NORTHWEST OF YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA AND TRACKING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 23 KNOTS OR 43 KM/H.

THE CLOUD SHIELD IS TAKING A COMA SHAPE WITH FRONTAL LIKE
CLOUD AND RAIN BAND TO THE EAST THEN NORTH THEN THE WESTERN
QUADRANT OF THE CENTRE. THIS IMPLIES RAPID TRANSITIONING
OF HURRICANE KYLE AT THIS TIME. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH PREVIOUS PROGNOSTICS REFERING TO THE EFFECT OF THE MUCH COLDER
WATER IN THE GULF OF MAINE. WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 75 KNOTS AT THIS TIME.

B. PROGNOSTIC

KYLE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD PASSING NEAR THE WEST
COAST OF YARMOUTH AND DIGBY COUNTIES NOVA SCOTIA LATE THIS
SUNDAY EVENING THEN ACROSS THE BAY OF FUNDY BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL JUST EAST OF SAINT JOHN NEW BRUNSWICK AFTER MIDNIGHT
OR IN THE EARLY HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING. KYLE IS EXISTING
BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE ATLANTIC.
WE KEEP KYLE AT 65 KNOTS AT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BECAUSE OF ITS
PRESENT INTENSITY AND ITS FAST MOVEMENT. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO BE CONSISTENT ON MAINTAINING A BAROCLINIC LOW NEAR OUR TRACK
BUT WE CONTINUE TO USE SHORT TERM ANALYSIS AND DIAGNOSTIC AS WELL
AS THE ENSEMBLE AND MIAMI FOR GUIDANCE.

KYLE IS STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE COLD WATER OF
THE BAY OF FUNDY THEN RAPIDLY FINISH ITS TRANSITION INTO
A POST-TROPICAL LOW AS IT MOVES OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE
THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN QUÉBEC NORTH SHORE AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE WEST OF THE STORM PATH AND COULD
BE UPWARDS TO 100 MM. THIS HEAVIEST RAIN COULD FALL IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME INCREASING THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.
THIS RAIN IS ON TOP OF ANY AMOUNTS THAT FELL PREVIOUSLY.

D. MARINE WEATHER

CHC TRAPPED FETCH MODEL INDICATES NOTHING HIGHER THAN 8 METRES
MOVING INTO CANADIAN WATERS BUT THIS IS BASED ON THE SHIFTED
TRACK AND LACK OF ALIGNMENT WITH PREVIOUSLY DEVELOPED WAVES.
HOWEVER A SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF 10 METRES IS NOT FAR FETCHED.


PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
29/00Z 210 150 100 120 120 90 30 60 70 50 10 30
29/06Z 210 150 100 120 120 90 30 60 0 0 0 0
29/12Z 210 150 100 120 120 90 30 60 0 0 0 0
29/18Z 210 150 100 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/00Z 210 150 100 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/06Z 210 150 100 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/12Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/18Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
01/00Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0



END BOWYER/ROUSSEL/CAMPBELL

Another Great RGB Pic of Hurricane Kyle

Great RGB Pic of Hurricane Kyle

Hurricane Kyle Update 4

000
WTNT31 KNHC 282032
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KYLE ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
500 PM AST SUN SEP 28 2008

...KYLE APPROACHING NOVA SCOTIA...ABOUT TO LOSE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COUNTIES OF DIGBY...
YARMOUTH...AND SHELBURNE IN SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA CANADA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM STONINGTON MAINE
EASTWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE...SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK CANADA...AND
THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
NOVA SCOTIA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KYLE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KYLE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 42.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.1 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES...
225 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA AND
ABOUT 180 MILES...290 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER
OF KYLE WILL MOVE OVER OR NEAR SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT AND
OVER OR NEAR NEW BRUNSWICK AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KYLE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KYLE IS
EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF MAINE...NEW
BRUNSWICK...NOVA SCOTIA...AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER LEVELS IN
THE BAY OF FUNDY...AND ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES....ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF OF NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IN ASSOCIATION WITH KYLE.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...42.7 N...66.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

000
WTNT41 KNHC 282032
TCDAT1
HURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008

KYLE IS ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AS SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOW LITTLE OR NO DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING...A FRONTAL-TYPE BAND
STRETCHING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE SYSTEM...AND AN ASYMMETRIC
OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN. EARLIER TODAY...AT ABOUT 1600 UTC...NOAA
DATA BUOY 44011 REPORTED A 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 51 KT WITH A
GUST TO 72 KT AT AN INSTRUMENT HEIGHT OF 5 METERS. THE BUOY ALSO
REPORTED 36-FOOT SEAS WHICH LIKELY CAUSED SOME SHELTERING OF THE
ANEMOMETER...AND UNDER-REPORTING OF THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. THE
BUOY ALSO REPORTED A LOWEST PRESSURE OF 987.1 WITH WINDS OF 31
KT...SUGGESTING A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF ABOUT 984 MB. THESE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT KYLE MAINTAINED HURRICANE STRENGTH
DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RECENT DETERIORATION OF THE
CLOUD PATTERN AND COLDER WATERS...KYLE MAY NOW JUST BARELY BE AT
HURRICANE INTENSITY. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL NOT BE
MUCH OF A BAROCLINIC ENERGY SOURCE...I.E. THICKNESS GRADIENT ACROSS
THE CYCLONE... AVAILABLE TO THE SYSTEM IN A DAY OR TWO.
CONSEQUENTLY THE MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING BY 72 HOURS...
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.

INITIAL MOTION IS A SLIGHTLY FASTER 030/22. IN SPITE OF THE RECENT
ACCELERATION...THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FORWARD
SPEED WILL SLOW WITHIN 12 HOURS AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND THE STEERING WINDS WEAKEN. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/2100Z 42.7N 66.1W 65 KT
12HR VT 29/0600Z 45.1N 64.7W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
24HR VT 29/1800Z 47.7N 63.3W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 30/0600Z 49.5N 63.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
48HR VT 30/1800Z 50.5N 63.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
72HR VT 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Hurricane Kyle Update 3

000
WTNT31 KNHC 281751
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KYLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
200 PM AST SUN SEP 28 2008

...KYLE HEADED FOR NOVA SCOTIA AND NEW BRUNSWICK...

AT 2 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR MAINE IS
DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
STONINGTON EASTWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE.

AT 2 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CANADA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE COUNTIES OF DIGBY...YARMOUTH...AND
SHELBURNE IN SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK
CANADA AND THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
NOVA SCOTIA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KYLE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KYLE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 41.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.9 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES...
360 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PORTLAND MAINE AND ABOUT 230 MILES...370
KM...SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF KYLE SHOULD PASS EAST OF THE COAST OF MAINE LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA AND NEW
BRUNSWICK TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KYLE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ALTHOUGH KYLE IS MOVING OVER COLDER WATERS AND WEAKENING IS
LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...KYLE COULD STILL BE AT HURRICANE
STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES NOVA SCOTIA. THE SYSTEM SHOULD LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

DATA FROM A NOAA BUOY INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
NEAR 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.

TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER LEVELS IN
THE BAY OF FUNDY...AND ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES....ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES IN ASSOCIATION WITH KYLE.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES...NEW BRUNSWICK...NOVA SCOTIA...AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...41.6 N...66.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WOCN31 CWHX 281800
HURRICANE KYLE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT SUNDAY
28 SEPTEMBER 2008.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT

...HURRICANE KYLE TRACKING TOWARDS DIGBY NECK...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE KYLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.5 N
AND LONGITUDE 67.1 W... ABOUT 135 NAUTICAL MILES OR 245 KM EAST
OF CAPE COD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS...
130 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 983 MB. KYLE IS MOVING NORTH
AT 24 KNOTS... 45 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
SEP 28 3.00 PM 41.5N 67.1W 983 70 130
SEP 28 9.00 PM 43.7N 66.3W 987 65 120 TRANSITIONING
SEP 29 3.00 AM 45.3N 65.7W 990 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 29 9.00 AM 46.3N 65.2W 994 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 29 3.00 PM 47.5N 64.5W 1000 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 29 9.00 PM 48.6N 63.9W 1002 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 30 3.00 AM 49.6N 63.4W 1009 30 56 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 30 9.00 AM 50.4N 63.0W 1012 25 46 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 30 3.00 PM 51.1N 62.7W 1012 25 46 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR DIGBY YARMOUTH AND SHELBURNE
COUNTIES IN NOVA SCOTIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR QUEENS COUNTY OF NOVA SCOTIA LUNENBURG COUNTY ANNAPOLIS COUNTY
SAINT JOHN AND COUNTY AND GRAND MANAN AND COASTAL CHARLOTTE
COUNTY IN NEW BRUNSWICK FUNDY NATIONAL PARK MONCTON AND
SOUTHEAST NEW BRUNSWICK. WIND GUSTS OF 90 TO 130 KM/H CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT EXCEPT GUSTS TO 90 OVER THE NEW BRUNSWICK SOUTHERN
SECTIONS.
THE ATLANTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A STORM SURGE
WARNING FOR HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS ALONG THE COAST OF
YARMOUTH AND SHELBURNE COUNTIES. THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE
AND WAVE SETUP ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WATER LEVELS OF MORE
THAN 1.0 METRE ABOVE THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WHICH WILL BE
OCCURRING WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE STORM ARRIVING
THIS EVENING. BASED ON HISTORICAL PRECEDENTS THIS COMBINATION
COULD CAUSE SOME COASTAL FLOODING.

IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA
AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK WILL LIKELY ENCOUNTER
TREE DAMAGE DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS OF KYLE EITHER THIS
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. DURING SIMILAR EVENTS IN THE
PAST THESE WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN DOWNED POWER LINES AND DAMAGE TO
STRUCTURES DUE TO FALLEN TREES. ALL PREPARATIONS TO SECURE ANY LOOSE
OBJECTS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY THIS TIME.

RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NEW BRUNSWICK
WHERE 50 TO 100 MILLIMETRES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH KYLE. THIS
IS IN ADDITION TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT FELL PRIOR TO
KYLE'S ARRIVAL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE CONFINED WEST OF WHERE
KYLE EVENTUALLY MAKES LANDFALL. EMO NEW BRUNSWICK REMINDS THE PUBLIC
THAT RAINFALL IN THESE AMOUNTS OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME CAN
RESULT IN A RAPID WATER LEVEL INCREASE IN STREAMS AND RIVERS
AND CAUSED LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE GASPÉ
PENINSULA AND SOUTHEASTERN SHORE OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
REGIONS OF QUÉBEC. THIS AREA WILL SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR OR
EXCEEDING 50 MILLIMETRES AS POST TROPICAL STORM KYLE INTERACTS
WITH A FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.

ON ITS CURRENT TRACK KYLE WILL BE PASSING JUST WEST OF YARMOUTH NOVA
SCOTIA AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE IN YARMOUTH. THE RESULTING STORM
SURGE ON TOP OF THE DANGEROUS ROUGH SURF FROM KYLE MAY LEAD TO
SHORELINE EROSION AND DAMAGE TO THE COASTAL INFRASTRUCTURE
MAINLY IN YARMOUTH AND SHELBURNE COUNTIES.


4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
THE GEORGES BANK BUOY REPORTED RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING. AS THE CENTRE OF KYLE APPROACHED
TO THE WEST OF THE BUOY THE REPORTED WINDS INCREASED FROM STRONG
TO HURRICANE FORCE OF 69 KNOTS IN 3 HOURS. THE STORM CENTRE HAS
NOW PASSED WEST OF THE BUOY WHICH REPORTED 11.0 M SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHTS AT 2 PM ADT.

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE CONTINUED
FOR GEORGES AND BROWNS BANK AND FOR THE LURCHER MARINE AREA.
STORM WARNINGS ARE POSTED FOR FUNDY GRAND MANAN AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN SHORE WESTERN LAHAVE AND NORTHWESTERN WEST SCOTIAN
SLOPE MARINE AREA. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF
EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA WATERS AND GULF OF ST LAWRENCE
WATERS.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS
LATE MORNING 25 KM ASCAT PASS GAVE A SENSE OF THE BROAD AREA
OF GALES WELL EAST OF KYLE ? EXTENDING TO MORE THAN 200 NM.


HURRICANE KYLE IS LOCATED A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY
BELIEVED. THE HEAVY CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTRE AND
PARTIALLY NEAR THE CENTRE SHOWS INTENSIFICATION IN SPITE
OF COOLER WATER AND THE SHEAR. WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS
FOLLOWING AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE AND NHC FORECASTERS.

B. PROGNOSTIC

KYLE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWARD PASSING NEAR THE WEST
COAST OF YARMOUTH AND DIGBY COUNTIES NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE THIS
SUNDAY EVENING THEN ACROSS THE BAY OF FUNDY BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL JUST EAST OF SAINT JOHN NEW BRUNSWICK AFTER MIDNIGHT
OR IN THE EARLY HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING. KYLE IS EXISTING
BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE ATLANTIC.

WE KEEP OUR TRACK JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MIAMI TRACK BUT
EAST OF OUR 12Z TRACK ISSUED THIS MORNING. AT 29/00Z WE KEEP
KYLE AT 65 KNOTS AT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BECAUSE OF ITS
PRESENT INTENSITY AND ITS FAST MOVEMENT. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO BE CONSISTENT ON MAINTAINING A BAROCLINIC LOW NEAR OUR TRACK
BUT THE ENSEMBLE AND MIAMI SUPPORT IS OUR MAIN GUIDANCE.

KYLE IS STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE COLD WATER OF
THE BAY OF FUNDY THEN RAPIDLY FINISH ITS TRANSITION INTO
A POST-TROPICAL LOW AS IT MOVES OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE
THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN QUÉBEC NORTH SHORE.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE WEST OF THE STORM PATH AND COULD
BE UPWARDS TO 100 MM. THIS HEAVIEST RAIN COULD FALL IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF TIME INCREASING THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.
THIS RAIN IS ON TOP OF ANY AMOUNTS THAT FELL PREVIOUSLY.

THE NEWFOUNDL AND LABRADOR WEATHER OFFICE IS MAINTAINING
SOUTHEASTERN LABRADOR UNDER RAINFALL WARNING CRITERIA.

D. MARINE WEATHER

CHC TRAPPED FETCH MODEL INDICATES NOTHING HIGHER THAN 8 METRES
MOVING INTO CANADIAN WATERS BUT THIS IS BASED ON THE SHIFTED
TRACK AND LACK OF ALIGNMENT WITH PREVIUSLY DEVELOPED WAVES.
IF THE SHIFT EASTWARD IN TRACK IS MORE GRADUAL THAN WE HAVE
BEEN THINKING THEN THESE WAVES COULD BE UPWARDS OF 10 METRES.


PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
28/18Z 210 150 100 120 120 90 30 60 70 50 0 0
29/00Z 210 150 100 120 120 90 30 60 70 50 0 0
29/06Z 210 150 100 120 120 90 30 60 0 0 0 0
29/12Z 210 150 100 120 120 90 30 60 0 0 0 0
29/18Z 210 150 100 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/00Z 210 150 100 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/06Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/12Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/18Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


END BOWYER/ROUSSEL

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WTCN31 CWHX 281749
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE
OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 2:49 PM ADT SUNDAY 28 SEPTEMBER 2008.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR:
=NEW= LUNENBURG COUNTY
=NEW= QUEENS COUNTY NOVA SCOTIA
=NEW= ANNAPOLIS COUNTY
=NEW= FUNDY NATIONAL PARK
=NEW= MONCTON AND SOUTHEAST NEW BRUNSWICK
SAINT JOHN AND COUNTY
GRAND MANAN AND COASTAL CHARLOTTE COUNTY.

HURRICANE KYLE IS MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE MARITIMES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT SUSTAINED GALES...WINDS OF
63 KM/H OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED IN THE SPECIFIED AREAS WITHIN 24
HOURS. BY NATURE A TROPICAL STORM ALSO IMPLIES THE THREAT OF
LOCAL FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL. BY NATURE A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ALSO IMPLIES THE THREAT OF LOCAL FLOODING FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL.

HURRICANE WARNING FOR:
=NEW= SHELBURNE COUNTY
=NEW= YARMOUTH COUNTY
=NEW= DIGBY COUNTY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT ONE OR BOTH OF THE FOLLOWING DANGEROUS
EFFECTS OF A HURRICANE ARE EXPECTED IN THE SPECIFIED AREAS WITHIN
24 HOURS:

(A) SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ... WINDS OF 118 KM/H OR MORE;

(B) DANGEROUSLY HIGH WATER OR A COMBINATION OF DANGEROUSLY HIGH WATER
AND EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH WAVES, EVEN THOUGH WINDS EXPECTED MAY BE LESS
THAN HURRICANE FORCE.

BY NATURE A HURRICANE ALSO IMPLIES THE THREAT OF LOCAL FLOODING FROM
HEAVY RAINFALL.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM WARNING ENDED FOR:
SHELBURNE COUNTY
YARMOUTH COUNTY
DIGBY COUNTY.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
AT 2PM ADT KYLE APPEARS TO BE IN LINE FOR LANDFALL THIS EVENING IN
WESTERN YARMOUTH COUNTY NOVA SCOTIA AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR
MARGINAL CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE. EVEN IF IT BRUSHES THE COAST AND
PASSES INTO THE BAY OF FUNDY HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS TO 130 KM/H
SHOULD BE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA AREA WITH
GUSTS TO AT LEAST 100 KM/H WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE
FUNDY COAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK AND THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHWEST NOVA
SCOTIA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE TO BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.

THESE SAME WINDS SPEEDS IN SIMILAR EVENTS IN THE PAST HAVE CAUSED
TREE DAMAGE RESULTING IN DOWNED POWER LINES AND DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES
DUE TO FALLING BRANCHES LIMBS OR OR TREES. ALL PREPARATIONS TO
SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS SHOULD BE COMPLETED IMMEDIATELY.

WATER LEVELS IN YARMOUTH AND SHELBURNE COUNTIES ARE NOW EXPECTED TO
EXCEED 1.0 METRE ABOVE NORMAL WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE TIME
OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. ACCORDINGLY A STORM SURGE WARNING FOR
THOSE AREAS HAS BEEN ISSUED BY THE ATLANTIC STORM PREEICTION CENTRE.
THIS COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS ROUGH SURF LATE THIS EVENING WILL LEAD
TO SHORELINE EROSION AND DAMAGE TO THE COASTAL INFRASTRUCTURE MAINLY
IN YARMOUTH AND DIGBY COUNTIES.

KYLE IS EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO MOST OF NEW
BRUNSWICK WHERE RAINFALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED. 50 TO 100
MILLIMETRES OF RAIN COULD FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. EMO NEW
BRUNSWICK REMINDS THE PUBLIC THAT RAINFALL IN THESE AMOUNTS IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME CAN RESULT IN RAPID INCREASE IN WATER LEVELS IN
STREAMS AND RIVERS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

END/CHC

Hurricane Kyle: Coastal Watches and Warnings Update 1

WTCN31 CWHX 281224
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE
OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 9:24 AM ADT SUNDAY 28 SEPTEMBER 2008.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR:
SHELBURNE COUNTY
YARMOUTH COUNTY
DIGBY COUNTY
SAINT JOHN AND COUNTY
GRAND MANAN AND COASTAL CHARLOTTE COUNTY.

HURRICANE KYLE IS MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE MARITIMES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT SUSTAINED GALES...WINDS OF
63 KM/H OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED IN THE SPECIFIED AREAS WITHIN 24
HOURS. BY NATURE A TROPICAL STORM ALSO IMPLIES THE THREAT OF
LOCAL FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL. BY NATURE A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ALSO IMPLIES THE THREAT OF LOCAL FLOODING FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
AT 9 AM ADT THIS MORNING HURRICANE KYLE WAS LOCATED 225 KILOMETRES
SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD AND MOVING NORTHWARD 35 KM/H. ON ITS PATH
KYLE IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO THE WEST OF YARMOUTH VERY LATE THIS
SUNDAY EVENING OR VERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING JUST BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL ON THE NEW BRUNSWICK COAST BEFORE DAWN MONDAY.

CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT KYLE WILL PUSH TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS OF 80 KM/H WITH GUSTS TO 120 KM/H INTO THE TRI-COUNTY REGION OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND REGIONS ADJACENT TO THE BAY OF FUNDY IN NEW BRUNSWICK
SUNDAY EVENING OR TONIGHT.

DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH AND POSITION OF KYLE
SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE NOVA SCOTIA
COAST JUST AS KYLE PASSES WEST OF YARMOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN
EFFECT CONCURRENTLY FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

THESE SAME WINDS SPEEDS IN SIMILAR EVENTS IN THE PAST HAVE CAUSED
SIGNIFICANT TREE DAMAGE THAT HAS RESULTED IN DOWNED POWER LINES AND
DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES DUE TO FALLING BRANCHES OR TREES.
ALL PREPARATIONS TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ALSO OF CONCERN..KYLE WILL BE ARRIVING AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE IN
YARMOUTH. THE RESULTING STORM SURGE FROM KYLE ON TOP OF THE DANGEROUS
ROUGH SURF MAY LEAD TO SHORELINE EROSION AND DAMAGE TO THE COASTAL
INFRASTRUCTURE MAINLY IN YARMOUTH AND DIGBY COUNTIES.

KYLE IS EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO MOST OF NEW
BRUNSWICK WHERE RAINFALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED. 50 TO 100
MILLIMETRES OF RAIN COULD FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. EMO NEW
BRUNSWICK REMINDS THE PUBLIC THAT RAINFALL IN THESE AMOUNTS IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME CAN RESULT IN RAPID INCREASE IN WATER LEVELS IN
STREAMS AND RIVERS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.


END/ASPC

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WTCN31 CWHX 281202
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE
OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 9:02 AM ADT SUNDAY 28 SEPTEMBER 2008.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR:
SHELBURNE COUNTY
YARMOUTH COUNTY
DIGBY COUNTY
SAINT JOHN AND COUNTY
GRAND MANAN AND COASTAL CHARLOTTE COUNTY.

HURRICANE KYLE IS MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE MARITIMES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT SUSTAINED GALES...WINDS OF
63 KM/H OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED IN THE SPECIFIED AREAS WITHIN 24
HOURS. BY NATURE A TROPICAL STORM ALSO IMPLIES THE THREAT OF
LOCAL FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL. BY NATURE A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ALSO IMPLIES THE THREAT OF LOCAL FLOODING FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
AT 9 AM ADT THIS MORNING HURRICANE KYLE WAS LOCATED 225 KILOMETRES
SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD AND MOVING NORTHWARD 35 KM/H. ON ITS PATH
KYLE IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO THE WEST OF YARMOUTH VERY LATE THIS
SUNDAY EVENING OR VERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING JUST BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL ON THE NEW BRUNSWICK COAST BEFORE DAWN MONDAY.

CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT KYLE WILL PUSH TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS OF 80 KM/H WITH GUSTS TO 120 KM/H INTO THE TRI-COUNTY REGION OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND REGIONS ADJACENT TO THE BAY OF FUNDY IN NEW BRUNSWICK
SUNDAY EVENING OR TONIGHT.

DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH AND POSITION OF KYLE
SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE NOVA SCOTIA
COAST JUST AS KYLE PASSES WEST OF YARMOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN
EFFECT CONCURRENTLY FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

THESE SAME WINDS SPEEDS IN SIMILAR EVENTS IN THE PAST HAVE CAUSED
SIGNIFICANT TREE DAMAGE THAT HAS RESULTED IN DOWNED POWER LINES AND
DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES DUE TO FALLING BRANCHES OR TREES.
ALL PREPARATIONS TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ALSO OF CONCERN..KYLE WILL BE ARRIVING AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE IN
YARMOUTH. THE RESULTING STORM SURGE FROM KYLE ON TOP OF THE DANGEROUS
ROUGH SURF MAY LEAD TO SHORELINE EROSION AND DAMAGE TO THE COASTAL
INFRASTRUCTURE MAINLY IN YARMOUTH AND DIGBY COUNTIES.

KYLE IS EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO MOST OF NEW
BRUNSWICK WHERE RAINFALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED. 50 TO 100
MILLIMETRES OF RAIN COULD FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. EMO NEW
BRUNSWICK REMINDS THE PUBLIC THAT RAINFALL IN THESE AMOUNTS IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME CAN RESULT IN RAPID INCREASE IN WATER LEVELS IN
STREAMS AND RIVERS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.


END/ASPC

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WWCN31 CWHX 281201
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE
OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 9:01 AM ADT SUNDAY 28 SEPTEMBER 2008.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
HURRICANE WATCH FOR:
SHELBURNE COUNTY
YARMOUTH COUNTY
DIGBY COUNTY.

HURRICANE KYLE WILL PASS WEST OF YARMOUTH LATE THIS SUNDAY
EVENING.
WIND SPEEDS COULD REACH 120 KM/H.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT A HURRICANE OR AN INCIPIENT
HURRICANE CONDITION POSES A POSSIBLE THREAT TO THE SPECIFIED
AREAS WITHIN 36 HOURS. BY NATURE A HURRICANE ALSO IMPLIES THE
THREAT OF LOCAL FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
AT 9 AM ADT THIS MORNING HURRICANE KYLE WAS LOCATED 225 KILOMETRES
SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD AND MOVING NORTHWARD 35 KM/H. ON ITS PATH
KYLE IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO THE WEST OF YARMOUTH VERY LATE THIS
SUNDAY EVENING OR VERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING JUST BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL ON THE NEW BRUNSWICK COAST BEFORE DAWN MONDAY.

CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT KYLE WILL PUSH TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS OF 80 KM/H WITH GUSTS TO 120 KM/H INTO THE TRI-COUNTY REGION OF
NOVA SCOTIA EARLY THIS EVENING. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF KYLE..SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY BE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST JUST AS KYLE PASSES WEST OF YARMOUTH.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

THESE SAME WINDS SPEEDS IN SIMILAR EVENTS IN THE PAST HAVE CAUSED
SIGNIFICANT TREE DAMAGE THAT HAS RESULTED IN DOWNED POWER LINES AND
DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES DUE TO FALLING BRANCHES OR TREES.
ALL PREPARATIONS TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ALSO OF CONCERN..KYLE WILL BE ARRIVING AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE IN
YARMOUTH. THE RESULTING STORM SURGE FROM KYLE ON TOP OF THE DANGEROUS
ROUGH SURF MAY LEAD TO SHORELINE EROSION AND DAMAGE TO THE COASTAL
INFRASTRUCTURE MAINLY IN YARMOUTH AND DIGBY COUNTIES.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.


END/ASPC

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WWCN31 CWHX 280627
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE
OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 3:27 AM ADT SUNDAY 28 SEPTEMBER 2008.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
HURRICANE WATCH FOR:
SHELBURNE COUNTY
YARMOUTH COUNTY
DIGBY COUNTY.

HURRICANE KYLE WILL PASS WEST OF YARMOUTH LATE TONIGHT.
WIND SPEEDS COULD REACH 120 KM/H.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT A HURRICANE OR AN INCIPIENT
HURRICANE CONDITION POSES A POSSIBLE THREAT TO THE SPECIFIED
AREAS WITHIN 36 HOURS. BY NATURE A HURRICANE ALSO IMPLIES THE
THREAT OF LOCAL FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
AT 3 AM ADT THIS MORNING HURRICANE KYLE WAS LOCATED 420 KILOMETRES
SOUTH OF CAPE COD AND MOVING NORTHWARD 40 KM/H. ON ITS PATH KYLE IS
FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO THE WEST OF YARMOUTH VERY LATE THIS EVENING
OR VERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING JUST BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ON THE NEW
BRUNSWICK COAST BEFORE DAWN MONDAY.

CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT KYLE WILL PUSH TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS OF 80 KM/H WITH GUSTS TO 120 KM/H INTO THE TRI-COUNTY REGION OF
NOVA SCOTIA EARLY THIS EVENING. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF KYLE.. SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY
BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST JUST AS KYLE PASSES WEST OF YARMOUTH.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

THESE SAME WINDS SPEEDS IN SIMILAR EVENTS IN THE PAST HAVE CAUSED
SIGNIFICANT TREE DAMAGE THAT HAS RESULTED IN DOWNED POWER LINES AND
DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES DUE TO FALLING BRANCHES OR TREES.
ALL PREPARATIONS TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ALSO OF CONCERN..KYLE WILL BE ARRIVING AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE IN
YARMOUTH. THE RESULTING STORM SURGE FROM KYLE ON TOP OF THE DANGEROUS
ROUGH SURF MAY LEAD TO SHORELINE EROSION AND DAMAGE TO THE COASTAL
INFRASTRUCTURE MAINLY IN YARMOUTH AND DIGBY COUNTIES.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

END/ASPC

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WWCN31 CWHX 280602
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE
OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 3:02 AM ADT SUNDAY 28 SEPTEMBER 2008.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
HURRICANE WATCH FOR:
SHELBURNE COUNTY
YARMOUTH COUNTY
DIGBY COUNTY.

HURRICANE KYLE
WILL PASS WEST OF YARMOUTH LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS COULD
REACH 120 KM/H.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT A HURRICANE OR AN INCIPIENT
HURRICANE CONDITION POSES A POSSIBLE THREAT TO THE SPECIFIED
AREAS WITHIN 36 HOURS. BY NATURE A HURRICANE ALSO IMPLIES THE
THREAT OF LOCAL FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM WATCH ENDED FOR:
LUNENBURG COUNTY
QUEENS COUNTY
SAINT JOHN AND COUNTY
GRAND MANAN AND COASTAL CHARLOTTE COUNTY
ST. STEPHEN AND NORTHERN CHARLOTTE COUNTY.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
AT 3 AM ADT THIS MORNING HURRICANE KYLE WAS LOCATED 420 KILOMETRES
SOUTH OF CAPE COD AND MOVING NORTHWARD 40 KM/H. ON ITS PATH KYLE
IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO THE WEST OF YARMOUTH VERY LATE THIS
EVENING OR VERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING JUST BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ON
THE NEW BRUNSWICK COAST BEFORE DAWN MONDAY.

CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT KYLE WILL PUSH TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS OF 80 KM/H WITH GUSTS TO 120 KM/H INTO THE TRI-COUNTY REGION OF
NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF KYLE SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY BE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST JUST AS KYLE PASSES WEST OF YARMOUTH.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT CONCURRENTLY FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
THE REMAINING COUNTIES ON THE SOUTH SHORE OF NOVA SCOTIA AND IN
SOUTHWESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK CAN EXPECT WINDS NEAR 65 KM/H GUSTING AS
HIGH AS 110 KM/H.

THESE SAME WINDS SPEEDS IN SIMILAR EVENTS IN THE PAST HAVE CAUSED
SIGNIFICANT TREE DAMAGE THAT HAS RESULTED IN DOWNED POWER LINES AND
DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES DUE TO FALLING BRANCHES OR TREES.
ALL PREPARATIONS TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ALSO OF CONCERN..KYLE WILL BE ARRIVING AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE IN
YARMOUTH. THE RESULTING STORM SURGE FROM KYLE ON TOP OF THE DANGEROUS
ROUGH SURF MAY LEAD TO SHORELINE EROSION AND DAMAGE TO THE COASTAL
INFRASTRUCTURE MAINLY IN YARMOUTH AND DIGBY COUNTIES.


PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.



END/ASPC

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WTCN31 CWHX 280602
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE
OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 3:02 AM ADT SUNDAY 28 SEPTEMBER 2008.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR:
=NEW= SAINT JOHN AND COUNTY
=NEW= GRAND MANAN AND COASTAL CHARLOTTE COUNTY
SHELBURNE COUNTY
YARMOUTH COUNTY
DIGBY COUNTY.

HURRICANE KYLE IS MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE MARITIMES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT SUSTAINED GALES...WINDS OF
63 KM/H OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED IN THE SPECIFIED AREAS WITHIN 24
HOURS. BY NATURE A TROPICAL STORM ALSO IMPLIES THE THREAT OF
LOCAL FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL. BY NATURE A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ALSO IMPLIES THE THREAT OF LOCAL FLOODING FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
AT 3 AM ADT THIS EVENING HURRICANE KYLE WAS LOCATED 420 KILOMETRES
SOUTH OF CAPE COD AND MOVING NORTHWARD 40 KM/H. ON ITS PATH KYLE
IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO THE WEST OF YARMOUTH VERY LATE THIS
EVENING OR VERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING JUST BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ON
THE NEW BRUNSWICK COAST BEFORE DAWN MONDAY.

CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT KYLE WILL PUSH TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS OF 80 KM/H WITH GUSTS TO 120 KM/H INTO THE TRI-COUNTY REGION OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND REGIONS ADJACENT TO THE BAY OF FUNDY IN NEW BRUNSWICK
SUNDAY EVENING OR TONIGHT.

DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH AND POSITION OF KYLE
SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE NOVA SCOTIA
COAST JUST AS KYLE PASSES WEST OF YARMOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN
EFFECT CONCURRENTLY FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

THESE SAME WINDS SPEEDS IN SIMILAR EVENTS IN THE PAST HAVE CAUSED
SIGNIFICANT TREE DAMAGE THAT HAS RESULTED IN DOWNED POWER LINES AND
DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES DUE TO FALLING BRANCHES OR TREES.
ALL PREPARATIONS TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ALSO OF CONCERN..KYLE WILL BE ARRIVING AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE IN
YARMOUTH. THE RESULTING STORM SURGE FROM KYLE ON TOP OF THE DANGEROUS
ROUGH SURF MAY LEAD TO SHORELINE EROSION AND DAMAGE TO THE COASTAL
INFRASTRUCTURE MAINLY IN YARMOUTH AND DIGBY COUNTIES.

KYLE IS EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO MOST OF NEW
BRUNSWICK WHERE RAINFALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED. 50 TO 100
MILLIMETRES OF RAIN COULD FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. EMO NEW
BRUNSWICK REMINDS THE PUBLIC THAT RAINFALL IN THESE AMOUNTS IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME CAN RESULT IN RAPID INCREASE IN WATER LEVELS IN
STREAMS AND RIVERS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

END/ASPC

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HURRICANE KYLE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1139 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008

...KYLE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE...

.AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WEST OF
STONINGTON MAINE ARE DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A
HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM STONINGTON EASTWARD TO
EASTPORT MAINE. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA CANADA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK
CANADA AND SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF NOVA
SCOTIA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO OUR AREA...INCLUDING INLAND
WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE IN CARIBOU MAINE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KYLE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 40.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.7 WEST OR ABOUT 140
MILES... 225 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND
ABOUT 355 MILES...575 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH...39
KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR SO WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF KYLE SHOULD PASS EAST OF THE COAST OF MAINE
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND NEW
BRUNSWICK TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KYLE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. KYLE IS MOVING OVER COLDER WATERS AND WEAKENING IS LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER LEVELS IN
THE BAY OF FUNDY...AND ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES....ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS OF OF NEW
ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IN ASSOCIATION WITH KYLE.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES...NEW BRUNSWICK...NOVA SCOTIA...AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING

Hurricane Kyle Update 2

000
WTNT31 KNHC 281450
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KYLE ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 28 2008

...KYLE HEADED FOR NOVA SCOTIA AND NEW BRUNSWICK...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WEST OF
STONINGTON MAINE ARE DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A
HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM STONINGTON EASTWARD TO
EASTPORT MAINE. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA CANADA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK
CANADA AND SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
NOVA SCOTIA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KYLE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KYLE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 40.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.7 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES...
225 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND ABOUT 355
MILES...575 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF KYLE SHOULD PASS EAST OF THE COAST OF MAINE LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND NEW BRUNSWICK
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KYLE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. KYLE IS MOVING OVER COLDER WATERS AND WEAKENING IS LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER LEVELS IN
THE BAY OF FUNDY...AND ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES....ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS OF OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES IN ASSOCIATION WITH KYLE.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES...NEW BRUNSWICK...NOVA SCOTIA...AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...40.4 N...67.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

000
WTNT41 KNHC 281451
TCDAT1
HURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT KYLE IS BEGINNING TO EVOLVE INTO A LESS
TROPICAL-LOOKING SYSTEM. THE CLOUD BAND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CYCLONE CENTER LOOKS SOMEWHAT FRONTAL...SO KYLE IS PROBABLY
STARTING TO MAKE AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. EVEN THOUGH DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS DO NOT SUPPORT HURRICANE STRENGTH...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT BASED ON EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA...IN
PARTICULAR DROPSONDE MEASUREMENTS WHICH SHOWED THAT THE MAXIMUM
SURFACE WINDS COULD HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 75 KT JUST BEFORE 12Z.
DATA BUOYS 44011 AND 44024 ARE VERY NEAR THE PROJECTED PATH OF
KYLE...AND THESE PLATFORMS SHOULD BE USEFUL IN ASSESSING THE
STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE LATER TODAY. NONETHELESS...THE CYCLONE
WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB 15 DEG C WATERS LATER TODAY WHICH WILL
LARGELY ELIMINATE THE OCEANIC ENERGY SOURCE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE BAROCLINIC ENERGY SOURCE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AS WELL...WITH THE THICKNESS GRADIENT ACROSS THE CYCLONE BECOMING
NEGLIGIBLE IN 48 HOURS OR SO. IN FACT THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON DISSIPATION AFTER 72 HOURS...WHICH IS ALSO SHOWN IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

LATEST FIXES INDICATE THAT KYLE IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
020/21...IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE AREA AND THE STEERING WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND AND IS A LITTLE EAST OF
THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST. THIS IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE LATEST GFDL RUN.

IF THE CURRENT TREND IN THE TRACK OF KYLE CONTINUES...THE HURRICANE
WATCH FOR MAINE COULD BE DISCONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/1500Z 40.4N 67.7W 70 KT
12HR VT 29/0000Z 43.3N 66.3W 60 KT
24HR VT 29/1200Z 46.3N 64.6W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 30/0000Z 48.5N 63.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 30/1200Z 50.0N 63.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 01/1200Z 51.5N 63.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WOCN31 CWHX 281500
HURRICANE KYLE INTERMEDIATE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 12.00 NOON
ADT SUNDAY 28 SEPTEMBER 2008.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT

GALES AHEAD OF KYLE NOW IN CANADIAN WATERS.

AT NOON ADT THE US NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FIXED THE CENTRE OF
KYLE AT 40.4N 67.7W ... ABOUT 115 NAUTICAL MILES OR 220 KM EAST
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD. KYLE REMAINS AS A 70 KNOT ... OR 130 KM/H
HURRICANE WITH AN ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR 991 MB.

THIS REPRESENTS A POSITION EAST OF OUR PREVIOUS TRACK AND WE WILL
NEED TO ASSESS HOW THIS AFFECTS THE TRACK OF THE STORM THROUGH
THE MARITIMES ... ESPECIALLY SINCE THE 11 AM ADT VISUAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT IT MAY BE EVEN FARTHER EAST OF THIS POSITION.

EASTERLY GALES OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS ... 65 TO 75 KM/H ... HAVE MOVED
INTO THE GEORGES BANK WELL AHEAD OF HURRICANE KYLE. AT 11 AM ADT
BUOY 44011 REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 33 KNOTS ... OR 61 KM/H ...
WITH A PEAK OF 40 KNOTS ... OR 74 KM/H.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AREAS AROUND SOUTHWESTERN
NOVA SCOTIA AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FUNDY COAST OF NEW
BRUNSWICK. HURRICANE AND STORM FORCE WIND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR SOME WESTERN MARITIME WATERS.

PUBLIC AND MARINE INTERESTS ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR FORECASTS
AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THEIR REGION BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA.

END BOWYER/ROUSSEL

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WOCN31 CWHX 281200 CCA
HURRICANE KYLE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT SUNDAY
28 SEPTEMBER 2008.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT

...HURRICANE KYLE TRACKS TOWARD THE BAY OF FUNDY ...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 AM ADT... HURRICANE KYLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.3 N
AND LONGITUDE 68.4 W... ABOUT 140 NAUTICAL MILES OR 255 KM
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 70 KNOTS... 130 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 983 MB. KYLE IS
MOVING NORTH AT 20 KNOTS... 37 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
SEP 28 9.00 AM 39.3N 68.4W 983 70 130
SEP 28 3.00 PM 41.3N 68.0W 995 65 120
SEP 28 9.00 PM 43.1N 67.4W 996 65 120
SEP 29 3.00 AM 45.0N 66.5W 997 60 111
SEP 29 9.00 AM 46.6N 65.7W 998 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 29 3.00 PM 48.0N 65.0W 1000 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 29 9.00 PM 49.3N 64.3W 1002 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 30 3.00 AM 50.3N 63.5W 1005 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 30 9.00 AM 51.2N 62.7W 1007 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 30 3.00 PM 51.9N 61.9W 1012 30 56 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 30 9.00 PM 52.6N 61.1W 1017 25 46 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

HURRICANE WATCHES ARE POSTED FOR YARMOUTH SHELBURNE AND
DIGBY COUNTIES IN NOVA SCOTIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE SAME THREE COUNTIES AND HAS BEEN
EXTENDED TO SAINT JOHN AND COUNTY AND GRAND MANAN AND
COASTAL CHARLOTTE COUNTYIN NEW BRUNSWICK. WIND GUSTS OF
90 TO 120 KM/H CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE REGIONS BEGINNING
THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA
AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK WILL LIKELY ENCOUNTER SIGNIFICANT
TREE DAMAGE DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS OF KYLE EITHER THIS
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. DURING SIMILAR EVENTS IN THE PAST THESE
WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN DOWNED POWER LINES AND DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES
DUE TO FALLEN TREES. ALL PREPARATIONS TO SECURE ANY LOOSE OBJECTS
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION BY THIS AFTERNOON.

OVER REGIONS ADJACENT OR NEAR THOSE UNDER A HURRICANE WATCH
IN NOVA SCOTIA.. THE HALIFAX OFFICE HAS ISSUED WIND WARNINGS
FOR GUSTS TO 90 KM/H.

RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NEW BRUNSWICK
WHERE 50 TO 100 MILLIMETRES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH KYLE. THIS
IS IN ADDITION TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT FELL ON SATURDAY.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE CONFINED WEST OF WHERE KYLE
EVENTUALLY MAKES LANDFALL. EMO NEW BRUNSWICK REMINDS THE PUBLIC
THAT RAINFALL IN THESE AMOUNTS OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME CAN
RESULT IN A RAPID WATER LEVEL INCREASE IN STREAMS AND RIVERS
PLUS LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE GASPÉ
PENINSULA AND SOUTHEASTERN SHORE OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
REGIONS OF QUÉBEC. THIS AREA WILL SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR OR
EXCEEDING 50 MILLIMETRES AS POST TROPICAL STORM KYLE INTERACTS
WITH A FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.

ON ITS CURRENT TRACK KYLE WILL BE PASSING BY YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA
AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE IN YARMOUTH. THE RESULTING STORM SURGE
ON TOP OF THE DANGEROUS ROUGH SURF FROM KYLE MAY LEAD TO
SHORELINE EROSION AND DAMAGE TO THE COASTAL INFRASTRUCTURE
MAINLY IN YARMOUTH AND DIGBY COUNTIES.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE CONTINUED
FOR GEORGES AND BROWNS BANK AND FOR THE LURCHER MARINE AREA.
STORM WARNINGS ARE POSTED FOR FUNDY GRAND MANAN AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN SHORE MARINE AREA. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT
FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA WATERS AND GULF OF ST LAWRENCE
WATERS.

SIGNIFICANT WAVES ON THE ORDER OF 6 TO 9 METRES WILL BEGIN
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN MARINE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
REACH THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA THIS EVENING.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS

A REMARKABLE TRANSFORMATION OCCURED IN KYLE DURING THE
ECLIPSE PHASE. THE CIRCULATION CAN BE SEEN IN THE LOW LEVEL
CLOUD IN THE IR
BAND TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN MASS OF CONVECTION INDICATIVE
OF DECOUPLING. A COMINATION OF AIRCRAFT DATA
AND FORECASTER EXPERIENCE WITH SEVERELY TILTED TROPICAL SYSTEMS
HAVE A MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED OF 65 KNOTS AND CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 1001 MB.

B. PROGNOSTIC

KYLE IS ACCELERATING SLOWLY BETWEEN AN UPPER
TROUGH ON THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE ATLANTIC.

THE ENSEMBLE OF THE VARIOUS MODELS FAVOUR OUR CURRECT TRACK.
LIKEWISE.. THE TRACK FROM MIAMI IS MUCH THE SAME ALBEIT ABOUT
TWO HOURS FASTER. WE STILL FAVOUR A 65 KNOT SYSTEM AT 29/00Z
JUST WEST SOUTHWEST OF YARMOUTH. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE COLD
SSTS WILL DAMPEN THE WINDS SO MIAMI'S 60 KNOT SPEED IS ALSO
REASONABLE. BUT A 5 KNOTS DIFFERENCE MAKES LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN
THE IMPACT ON MARINE INTERESTS OR THE SHORELINE. HOWEVER
AS KYLE APPROACHES THE SHORELINE OF NEW BRUNSWICK.. COLD WATERS
WILL CERTAINLY WEAKEN KYLE BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.

WE KEEP KYLE ON PATH FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. IT WILL COMPLETE
ITS TRANSITION TO EXTRA TROPICAL STATUS RIGHT AFTER LANDFALL
SO THIS NECCESSITATES THE EXTENSION OF TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS
TO THE NEW BRUNSNWICK REGIONS ADJACENT TO THE BAY OF FUNDAY.
THEREAFTER THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES KYLE AS A WEAKENING POST
TROPICAL STORM THROUGH NEW BRUNSWICK AND INTO THE GULF OF
ST LAWRENCE MONDAY EVENING.

BEYOND MONDAY EVENING.. KYLE'S EXTRATROPICAL NATURE MANIFESTS
ITSELF AS AN UPPER LOW AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WHICH SLOWLY
MOVES TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN LABRADOR. AT THIS POINT THE GLOBAL
MODELS HANDLE THE SYSTEM IN A BELIEVABLE WAY AND THE TRACK IS
THEREAFTER DROPPED ON OUR PLOTS.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW
BRUNSWICK BY THIS AFTERNOON HENCE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS IN EFFECT THERE. IT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW FAST KYLE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE COLD
WATERS SOUTHWEST OF NOVA SCOTIA. WE ARE RELUCTANT TO PUT
SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA COUNTIES UNDER A HURRICANE WARNING
AT THIS TIME AND WILL LEAVE IT AS A HURRICANE WATCH.

THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE STORM PATH
AND WITH THE FORWARD TRANSLATIONAL SPEED AMOUNTS COULD BE
UPWARDS TO 100 MM. THIS HEAVIEST RAIN COULD FALL IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF TIME INCREASING THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.
THIS RAIN IS ON TOP OF ANY AMOUNTS THAT FELL SATURDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL ZONE MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

AS A RESULT OF KEEPING KYLE A HURRICANE UP TO THE POINT IT
REACHES BROWNS BANK.. AND THE FACT THAT THE TRACK IS
WEST OF SAINT JOHN NEW BRUNSWICK.. WIND WARNINGS ARE
EXTENDED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN AREAS OF NEW BRUNSWICK ANYWHERE
NEAR AND EAST OF THE TRACK OF KYLE. WE HAVE RAISED THE
WIND SPEED GUSTS TO 120 KM/H OVER SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA
TO MATCH THE HURRICANE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AS IT PASSES
BY WEST OF YARMOUTH AT 29/0300Z.

WE MAY BE SPLITTING HAIRS ABOUT ISSUING WIND WARNINGS AS
OPPOSED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR AREAS CLOSE TO THE
HURRICANE WATCH. WE REASON THAT KYLE WILL COMPLETE ITS PHASE
TRANSITION VERY QUICKLY HENCE THOSE AREAS UNDER A WIND WARNING
WILL BE MORE OR LESS SYNOPTIC AS OPPOSED TO TROPICAL.

DISCUSSIONS WITH THE GANDER OFFICE LEAD TO AN AGREEMENT THAT
SOUTHEASTERN LABRADOR WILL BE UNDER RAINFALL WARNING CRITERIA.

D. MARINE WEATHER

TRAPPED FETCH WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHTS COULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 6 TO 8 METRES ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN
IS FOR YARMOUTH AND DIGBY COUNTIES AS KYLE PASSES JUST AT THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE. A SURGE PLUS WAVE SET UP COULD LEAD TO
THE COASTAL FLOODING BY THE SEA. IF THE TRACK CHANGES THEN
OTHER AREAS MAY BE OF CONCERN AS WELL.

IN NEW BRUNSWICK KYLE WILL ARRIVE AS THE TIDE IS EBBING
HENCE STORM SURGE SHOULD NOT BE A MAJOR CONCERN AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE MINOR SHORELINE EROSION
DUE TO THE POUNDING SURF.

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
28/12Z 180 150 60 120 90 90 30 45 30 30 0 0
28/18Z 210 180 60 120 90 90 15 60 30 30 0 0
29/00Z 210 180 60 120 90 90 15 60 30 30 0 0
29/06Z 210 210 60 60 90 90 15 45 0 0 0 0
29/12Z 210 210 60 60 30 30 0 0 0 0 0 0
29/18Z 180 180 30 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/00Z 120 150 10 45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/06Z 120 150 30 45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/12Z 120 150 60 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/18Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
01/00Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


END CAMPBELL/ROUSSEL