Friday, September 06, 2019

Hurricane Dorian (Category One) closes in Update One























000
WTNT35 KNHC 070248
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number  55
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019

...DORIAN HEADING FOR NOVA SCOTIA IN A HURRY...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE
SATURDAY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.3N 70.2W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 555 MI...890 KM SW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Canadian Hurricane Center has adjusted the warnings for Nova
Scotia and New Brunswick and a hurricane warning is now in effect
from Lower East Pubnico eastward around Nova Scotia to Avonport, and
the tropical storm warning is effect from Tidnish to Brule and from
Fundy National Park to Shediac.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Eastern Nova Scotia from Lower East Pubnico to Avonport

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to north of Lower East
Pubnico.
* Prince Edward Island
* Magdalen Islands
* Southwestern Newfoundland from Parson's Pond to Indian
Harbour

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA
* Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA
* East of Bar Harbor to Eastport ME
* Prince Edward Island
* Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to north of Lower East
Pubnico
* Fundy National Park to Shediac

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Parson's Pond to Triton
* Indian Harbour to Stone's Cove

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area in this case within the next 12
to 24 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of
the United States should monitor the progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 38.3 North, longitude 70.2 West. Dorian is
moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this general
motion with some increase in forward speed is expected through
Sunday.  On the forecast track, the center of Dorian should pass
to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England Saturday
morning, and then across Nova Scotia late Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight weakening is forecast, but Dorian is expected to
move over Nova Scotia with hurricane force winds. Thereafter, Dorian
is forecast to become a powerful post-tropical cyclone over eastern
Canada.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
over portions of extreme southeastern Massachusetts tonight or early
Saturday, and in the warning area in Maine Saturday afternoon.

Regardless of whether Dorian is a hurricane or a post-tropical
cyclone, hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area Saturday, and they are possible in the Hurricane Watch area
Saturday or Saturday night.  Tropical storm conditions are expected
in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Canada by Saturday, and they
are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area Saturday and Saturday
night.

STORM SURGE: Storm Surge is likely in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the
Southwest Coast of Newfoundland, and Eastern Nova Scotia.

RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Saturday:

Extreme Southeastern New England and far eastern Maine...1 to 4
inches.

Nova Scotia...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches.

New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island...2 to 4 inches

Newfoundland...1 to 2 inches

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods

SURF:  Large swells will affect much of the southeastern United
States coast from northern Florida through North Carolina during
the next couple of days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

9:46 PM ADT Friday 06 September 2019
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

New Brunswick:

Acadian Peninsula
Fredericton and Southern York County
Fundy National Park
Grand Lake and Queens County
Grand Manan and Coastal Charlotte County
Kent County
Kouchibouguac National Park
Miramichi and area
Moncton and Southeast New Brunswick
Oromocto and Sunbury County
Saint John and County
St. Stephen and Northern Charlotte County
Stanley - Doaktown - Blackville Area
Sussex - Kennebecasis Valley and Kings County
Newfoundland and Labrador:

Cartwright to Black Tickle
Eagle River
Newfoundland
Norman Bay to Lodge Bay
Red Bay to L'Anse-au-Clair
Nova Scotia

Prince Edward Island

Québec - south:

Anticosti
Blanc-Sablon
Chevery
Îles-de-la-Madeleine
For Hurricane Dorian.

The next information statement will be issued by 03:00 a.m. ADT.

Hurricane Dorian is accelerating towards Nova Scotia and will make landfall Saturday evening near Halifax. Severe winds and heavy rain for parts of Atlantic Canada and Quebec.

1. Summary of basic information at 09:00 p.m. ADT.

Location: 37.8 North 71.5 West.

About: 458 kilometres northeast of Cape Hatteras.

Maximum sustained winds: 148 kilometres per hour.

Present movement: northeast at 43 kilometres per hour.

Minimum central pressure: 958 millibars.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for central and eastern Nova Scotia. Hurricane Watches are in effect for southwestern Newfoundland, western Nova Scotia, eastern Prince Edward Island, and the Magdalen Islands.

Tropical storm warnings are in effect for southeastern New Brunswick and western Prince Edward Island. Tropical storm watches are in effect for northern and southwestern Newfoundland.

According to the latest forecast guidance, the most likely track projection brings Hurricane Dorian south of the Maritimes on Saturday, passing near or over Halifax Saturday night, and then over the eastern Gulf of St. Lawrence waters or western Newfoundland by Sunday morning.

Severe winds and torrential rain will have major impacts for southeastern New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, Western Newfoundland, and the Quebec Lower North Shore, and the Magdalen Islands. Large waves are expected for the Atlantic coasts of Nova Scotia, Newfoundland and for eastern portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Finally, storm surge, combined with large waves and pounding surf, may give flooding for parts of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, Newfoundland, the Magdalen Islands, and parts of the Quebec North Shore.

a. Wind.

Most regions will experience tropical storm force winds of 90 to 110 km/h, beginning over southwestern Nova Scotia Saturday morning, in the afternoon over eastern Nova Scotia, and towards evening for Prince Edward Island, the Magdalen Islands, and southwestern Newfoundland. Near and to the south of the forecast track, winds will reach hurricane force of 120 km/h or more. Behind the storm, there is a possibility of storm to hurricane force northwesterlies. Wind impacts will likely be enhanced by foliage on the trees, causing broken branches and tree falls, resulting in power outages, blocking of roads, and other type of damages.

Hurricane force wind warnings are in effect for central and eastern Nova Scotia and eastern Prince Edward Island. Wind warnings are in effect for western and northern Nova Scotia, western Prince Edward Island, and the Magdalen Islands.

b. Rainfall.

Rainfall will be a major factor as torrential rain will lead to flooding in some areas. The highest rainfall amounts are expected over Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and the Magdalen Islands where 50 to 100 mm are expected. Forecast guidance is also suggesting a swath in excess of 150 mm north and west of Dorian's track. Some districts have received large quantities of rain last week, and with the soil moisture still very high, excessive runoff may exacerbate the flooding potential. This combined with the severe winds may result in damage due to falling trees.

Rainfall warnings are in effect for Nova Scotia, western Prince Edward Island, and eastern and southern New Brunswick.

c. Surge/Waves.

There will also be rough and pounding surf, especially for parts of Nova Scotia, Newfoundland and the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Waves of 7 to 10 metres will reach the Southwestern Shore of Nova Scotia on Saturday and spread to the Eastern Shore Saturday night. These waves will likely reach southern Newfoundland by Sunday morning with waves nearing 12 metres. Waves of 4 to 7 metres will impact north facing coasts of the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Note that waves will break higher along some of the coastlines, and dangerous rip currents are likely. Please exercise extreme caution.

Storm surge is an issue, mainly for the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia, the north coast of Prince Edward Island, southwestern Newfoundland, and the Magdalen Islands. Current guidance suggests water levels approaching inundation levels during high tide. However, when combined with rough and pounding surf, there may be flooding and overwash of waves.

Storm surge warnings are in effect for the north shore of Prince Edward Island and western Cape Breton. Warnings will be extended to the Lower Quebec North Shore and Anticosti Island, as well as the Magdalen Islands.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

As Dorian moves into our waters, it will spread hurricane force southeasterlies near and south of its track, over offshore Canadian waters. As the hurricane moves further into the Maritimes, storm to hurricane force northwesterlies will develop behind it. Waves of 10 to 15 metres are expected south of the storm track, beginning late Saturday over southwestern waters and approaching the south coast of Newfoundland Sunday morning. As the low continues east Sunday into Monday, waves of 4 to 7 metres will develop over eastern waters, and for the southwestern Grand Banks will build to 5 to 10 metres and will diminish to near 5 metres late in the day.

Hurricane force wind warnings are in effect for most Atlantic waters and storm warnings are in effect for most other waters in the Maritimes. For Newfoundland, a Storm warning is in effect for the Southwest Coast, and gales are in effect for western and southern waters.

Forecasters: March/Mercer/Couturier/McArthur

FXCN31 CWHX 070000
Tropical cyclone technical information statement issued by the
Canadian Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 8.54 PM ADT
Friday 06 September 2019.

The next statement will be issued by 3.00 AM ADT

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 9.00 PM ADT, hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 37.8 N and
longitude 71.5 W, about 247 nautical miles or 458 km northeast of
Cape Hatteras. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 80 knots (148
km/h) and central pressure at 958 MB. Dorian is moving northeast at
23 knots (43 km/h).

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date     time     lat    lon   MSLP  Max wind
          ADT                    MB  kts  kmh
Sep 06  9.00 PM  37.8N  71.5W   958   80  148
Sep 07  9.00 AM  40.4N  68.0W   960   80  148
Sep 07  9.00 PM  44.4N  64.0W   960   80  148
Sep 08  9.00 AM  48.9N  60.2W   960   70  130 post-tropical
Sep 08  9.00 PM  51.7N  55.1W   963   60  111 post-tropical
Sep 09  9.00 AM  54.5N  48.7W   971   50   93 post-tropical
Sep 09  9.00 PM  56.1N  43.0W   979   45   83 post-tropical

3. Technical discussion

A. Analysis

Dorian has become better organised with the eye embedded in a cdo
with a strong outer band north of the system. Reconnassance doesn'T
show any significant change in intensification, but satellite
intensity estimates are trending upward. The initial 80 KT estimate
is maintained.There is excellent outflow in the north. Forward motion
is to the northeast at 23 kts.

B. Prognostic

Dorian should move quickly towards us as it interacts with a mid to
upper level trough. Guidance continues to be strongly clustered, with
a track into nova scoita Saturday night. The low will then curve into
the Northern Gulf of St. Lawrence and then will eject east in the
brisk westerly upper flow.

The ecmwf/gfs deterministic models indicate a baroclinic
intensification in the trough moving the system east, including
strong upper level divergence. It will also be over warm waters until
it gets well into the Scotian shelf. Nhc suggests intensification
before the et transition starts prior to making landfall near Halifax
as a strong category 1 or low end category 2 hurricane. Et is
expected to continue until the storm moves into the Gulf of St.
Lawrence while remaining at hurricane strengh until it passes
Northern Newfoundland.

C. Predicted wind radii (NM)

Time          gales           storms            hurricane
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
07/00Z  245 260 190 145   100 110  80  80    55  55  50  55
07/12Z  255 275 200 160   110 145  95  85    60  65  55  55
08/00Z  270 280 210 180   110 175 100  90    65  70  55  45
08/12Z  265 275 220 195    95 145  90  90    55  50  30  45
09/00Z  240 265 225 195    75 100  70  80     0   0   0   0
09/12Z  210 255 225 190    60  90  50  65     0   0   0   0
10/00Z  210 255 260 190     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0

END/MERCER/MARCH/COUTURIER/MCARTHUR

Hurricane Dorian (Category One) closes in

















Dorian Local Watch/Warning Statement/Intermediate Advisory Number 53A
National Weather Service Caribou ME  AL052019
442 PM EDT Fri Sep 6 2019

MEZ030-070445-
/O.CON.KCAR.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Coastal Washington-
442 PM EDT Fri Sep 6 2019

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Eastport
    - Machias
    - Cherryfield

* WIND
        - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Tropical storm force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 25-35 mph with gusts to 50 mph

    - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for wind 39 to
      57 mph
        - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm
          force due to possible forecast changes in track, size, or
          intensity.
        - PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect property should be
          completed as soon as possible. Prepare for limited wind
          damage.
        - ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
          mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
        - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
          uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees
          are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown
          over.
        - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within
          urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving
          conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
        - Scattered power and communications outages.

* STORM SURGE
    - No storm surge inundation forecast

    - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Little to no storm surge
      flooding
        - The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: There is little to no threat of storm surge flooding.
          Rough surf, coastal erosion, and life-threatening rip
          currents are possible.
        - PREPARE: Little to no preparations for storm surge flooding
          are needed.
        - ACT: Follow the instructions of local officials. Monitor
          forecasts.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
        - Little to no potential impacts from storm surge flooding
          except for minor splashover around the time of Saturday
          evening`s high tide.

* FLOODING RAIN
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: 1.5-2.5 inches, with locally higher
          amounts

    - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for localized
      flooding rain
        - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
          the previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
          localized flooding from heavy rain.
        - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
          vulnerable to flooding.
        - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
        - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter
          currents. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and
          ditches may become swollen and overflow in spots.
        - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in
          usually vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding
          of water occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor
          drainage areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds
          become near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and
          bridge closures.

* TORNADO
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes

    - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Tornadoes not expected
        - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms
          with gusty winds may still occur.
        - PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect
          against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest
          tornado situation.
        - ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
        - Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
    - http://maine.gov/mema/weather/hurricane.shtml

$$


Hurricane Local Statement
Hurricane Dorian Local Statement Intermediate Advisory Number 53A
MEZ029-030-070515-

Hurricane Dorian Local Statement Intermediate Advisory Number 53A
National Weather Service Caribou ME  AL052019
506 PM EDT Fri Sep 6 2019

This product covers EASTERN AND NORTHERN MAINE

**Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for coastal Downeast Maine**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Coastal Hancock and
      Coastal Washington

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 630 miles south-southwest of Bar Harbor ME or about 690
      miles south-southwest of Eastport ME
    - 36.2N 73.7W
    - Storm Intensity 90 mph
    - Movement Northeast or 50 degrees at 21 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Dorian will pass south of the Gulf of Maine on Saturday
morning and move quickly to the northeast reaching Nova Scotia by the
afternoon. Strong winds and high surf will be the biggest impact from
the storm. The most likely timeframe for the strong winds will be by
daybreak on Saturday through the late afternoon hours. The winds will
begin to diminish by the evening. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in
effect for coastal Hancock and Washington counties.

Northeast winds will range from 25 to 35 mph during the afternoon with
gusts of 45 to 60 mph. Winds will shift around to the north in the
afternoon and begin to diminish in the evening hours.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across
coastal Downeast and the islands. Potential impacts in this area
include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
      bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

Elsewhere across Eastern and Northern Maine, little to no impact is
anticipated.

* OTHER COASTAL HAZARDS:
High dangerous surf and strong rip currents are expected Saturday
morning into the evening hours. Heed all posted warnings from local
officials and stay away from rock outcroppings along the shoreline.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts near the Eastport area.

* Potential impacts include:
    - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents.
      Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches may become
      swollen and overflow in spots.
    - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually
      vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water
      occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become
      near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge
      closures.

Elsewhere across Eastern and Northern Maine, little to no impact is
anticipated.

* SURGE:
Minor splashover around Saturday evening`s high tide may occur along
the immediate coast in vulnerable locations. Little to no impacts are
anticipated at this time elsewhere across eastern and northern Maine.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.


* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.


* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Caribou ME around 5 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

Hewitt

055
WTNT35 KNHC 061754
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 53A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019

...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS RECENTLY REPORTED ON THE NORTH
CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...
...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR EASTERN CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.2N 73.7W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...34 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Canadian Hurricane Center has issued a Hurricane Warning for
eastern Nova Scotia from Hubbards to Avonport.

The Canadian Hurricane Center has issued a Hurricane Watch for
Prince Edward Island, southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to
Hubbards, the Magdalen Islands, and southwestern Newfoundland from
Parson's Pond to Indian Harbour.

The Canadian Hurricane Center has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for Prince Edward Island and southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport
to Hubbards.

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued for the Pamlico and
Neuse Rivers.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Salter Path NC to Poquoson VA
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Hampton Roads

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bogue Inlet to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Eastern Nova Scotia from Hubbards to Avonport

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to Hubbards
* Prince Edward Island
* Magdalen Islands
* Southwestern Newfoundland from Parson's Pond to Indian
Harbour

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North Carolina/Virginia border to Fenwick Island DE
* Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA
* Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA
* East of Bar Harbor to Eastport ME
* Prince Edward Island
* Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to Hubbards

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Fundy National Park to Shediac
* Boat Harbour to Parson's Pond
* Indian Harbour to Stone's Cove

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of
the United States should monitor the progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 36.2 North, longitude 73.7 West. Dorian is moving
toward the northeast near 21 mph (34 km/h) and this general motion
with an additional increase in forward speed is expected through
Saturday night. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will
move away from the coast of North Carolina during the next several
hours.  The center should move to the southeast of extreme
southeastern New England tonight and Saturday morning, and then
across Nova Scotia late Saturday or Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Slow weakening is expected through Saturday.  After that,
Dorian is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone with
hurricane-force winds by Saturday night as it approaches Nova
Scotia.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220
miles (350 km).  During the last two hours, several station on the
North Carolina Outer Banks north of Cape Hatteras reported
sustained winds of 70-80 mph with higher gusts.  These winds are
now decreasing.

The minimum central pressure reported by and Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are ending along portions of the
North Carolina coast.  Tropical storm conditions should continue on
portions of the the southeastern coast of Virginia, northeastern
coast of North Carolina, and the Lower Chesapeake Bay for a few more
hours.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
over portions of extreme southeastern Massachusetts tonight or early
Saturday, and in the warning area in Maine Saturday afternoon.

Hurricane conditions are expected in eastern Nova Scotia Saturday,
and they are possible in the Hurricane Watch area in Canada
Saturday or Saturday night.  Tropical storm conditions are expected
in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Canada by Saturday, and they
are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Canada Saturday and
Saturday night.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Salter Path to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle
Sounds...4 to 7 ft
Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds.  The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm Surge is likely in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the Southwest
Coast of Newfoundland, and Eastern Nova Scotia.

RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Saturday:

Northeastern North Carolina into far southeast Virginia...Additional
1 to 4 inches, isolated storm totals 10 inches.

Extreme Southeastern New England...2 to 4 inches.

Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island...3 to 5 inches.

Newfoundland...1 to 2 inches

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods

SURF:  Large swells will affect much of the southeastern United
States coast from northern Florida through North Carolina during
the next couple of days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Hurricane Dorian (Category One) heads our way Update Two
































000
WTNT45 KNHC 061457
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  53
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019

The eye of Dorian made landfall over Cape Hatteras, North Carolina,
at about 1235 UTC and then moved quickly northeastward into the
Atlantic.  A combination of surface observations and Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that the maximum
winds are near 80 kt and the central pressure is near 957 mb.  The
hurricane remains well-organized in satellite imagery, with
the 30 n mi wide eye surrounded by cold convective banding.

The initial motion is now 045/15.  Dorian should accelerate
northeastward during the next 24-36 h as a mid- to upper-level
trough, currently over the U.S. Great Lakes, approaches the system
and accelerates the steering flow.  The track guidance remains
tightly clustered, and the new track forecast is changed little in
either direction or speed from the previous forecast.  The new
forecast calls for Dorian to move away from the North Carolina
coast today, pass well southeast of southern New England tonight
and Saturday, and then move over Nova Scotia Saturday or Saturday
night.  A continued northeastward motion is then expected to bring
the cyclone across Newfoundland into the far north Atlantic.

Dorian is expected to slowly weaken due to increased shear and
entrainment of drier air during the next 24 h or so.  After that
time, the hurricane is expected to undergo extratropical
transition and become a large and powerful post-tropical low.  It is
unclear whether the transition will be complete before Dorian
reaches Nova Scotia.  However, whether Dorian is a hurricane or a
hurricane-force extratropical low, it is expected to bring strong
winds, storm surge, and heavy rains to portions of Nova Scotia and
Newfoundland.  The new NHC intensity forecast is little changed from
the previous forecast, and it follows the trend of the intensity
guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds will continue
along portions of the North Carolina coast, portions of southeast
Virginia and the southern Chesapeake Bay for the next several
hours.

2. Areas of flash flooding, some of which may be significant and
life-threatening, will continue into early afternoon across portions
of northeastern North Carolina into far southeast Virginia.

3. Dangerous storm surge impacts are likely in portions of the Gulf
of St. Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland and eastern Nova Scotia
this weekend. Hurricane-force winds are also likely in Nova Scotia,
Prince Edward Island and possibly Newfoundland Saturday and Sunday.
Refer to information from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for more
information on these hazards.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 35.7N  74.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 37.4N  72.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 40.7N  67.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 44.9N  63.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
 48H  08/1200Z 48.8N  60.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  09/1200Z 54.5N  48.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

10:49 AM ADT Friday 06 September 2019
Rainfall warning in effect for:

Halifax Metro and Halifax County West
Heavy rain is expected.

Heavy rain associated with Hurricane Dorian is forecast to spread across Nova Scotia. Rain will begin in the southwest late overnight and spread northeastward through the day on Saturday.

Total rainfall amounts of 70 to 90 mm are expected over western Nova Scotia by late Saturday afternoon. Amounts of 40 to 70 mm are expected by that time over central and northwestern Nova Scotia. Rainfall rates could exceed 30 mm/hr in the heavy downpours giving increased risk of road washouts and localized flooding.

Additional rainfall is expected on Saturday night and some areas may receive total amounts exceeding 150 mm by the time precipitation winds down late Saturday night or Sunday morning.

Rainfall warnings are likely to be expanded with future updates.

Heavy downpours are likely to cause flash floods and water pooling on roads. Avoid driving through water on roads. Even shallow, fast-moving water across a road can sweep a vehicle or a person away. Don't approach washouts near rivers, creeks and culverts.

Rainfall warnings are issued when significant rainfall is expected.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@canada.ca or tweet reports using #NSStorm.

 10:46 AM ADT Friday 06 September 2019
Wind warning in effect for:

Halifax Metro and Halifax County West
Strong winds with severe and damaging gusts are expected or occurring.

Hurricane Dorian is forecast to approach Nova Scotia during the day Saturday, strong easterly winds will develop Saturday morning with gusts currently forecast to reach 80 to 100 km/h during the late morning and into the afternoon.

Late Saturday, Dorian is forecast to make landfall somewhere over eastern Nova Scotia. Winds around the storm may reach hurricane strength over some portions of the province.

Please closely monitor future forecast updates as more information will be made available as Dorian begins to approach the Maritimes.

Damage to buildings, such as to roof shingles and windows, may occur. High winds may cause downed trees or toss loose objects. Store or anchor objects so they are not tossed by the wind causing injury or damage.

Wind warnings are issued when there is a significant risk of damaging winds.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@canada.ca or tweet reports using #NSStorm.

10:48 AM ADT Friday 06 September 2019
Rainfall warning in effect for:

Moncton and Southeast New Brunswick
Rain, at times heavy, is expected.

Hurricane Dorian is forecast to spread heavy rain across southern and eastern New Brunswick. Rain will begin over southern areas Saturday morning and spread northeastward through the day.

Total rainfall amounts of 50 to 90 mm are expected over parts of southern and eastern New Brunswick before the rain ends overnight Saturday night or Sunday morning.

Heavy downpours can cause flash floods and water pooling on roads. If visibility is reduced while driving, turn on your lights and maintain a safe following distance. Watch for possible washouts near rivers, creeks and culverts.

Rainfall warnings are issued when significant rainfall is expected.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@canada.ca or tweet reports using #NBStorm.

11:46 AM ADT Friday 06 September 2019
Tropical storm watch in effect for:

Queens County P.E.I.
Tropical storm force winds of possible 70 gusting to 100 km/h over exposed areas from Hurricane Dorian may occur over the above regions.

Hurricane Dorian will be leaving the coast of North Carolina and will begin to race northeastward toward the Maritimes today. The most likely track projection brings Hurricane Dorian south of the Maritimes on Saturday, pushing through eastern Nova Scotia Saturday night and then over eastern Gulf of St. Lawrence region early Sunday.
Strong wind gusts reaching 90 km/h are possible over the region beginning Saturday afternoon.

Flooding is possible due to storm surge, and the most likely period is Saturday evening.

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds near 65 km/h or more) are possible over parts of the region within 36 hours.

By nature, a tropical storm also implies the threat of local flooding from heavy rainfall - consult your local area forecast for possible rainfall warnings.

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. Reports of storm conditions and impacts can be emailed directly to NSstorm@canada.ca or by tweeting reports by province using #NSStorm, #NBStorm, #PEStorm, #NLwx, #QCStorm or #ONStorm.

11:44 AM ADT Friday 06 September 2019
Hurricane watch in effect for:

Sydney Metro and Cape Breton County
There is a slight possibility that Hurricane Dorian could bring near-hurricane conditions.

Hurricane Dorian will be leaving the coast of North Carolina and will begin to race northeastward toward the Maritimes today. The most likely track projection brings Hurricane Dorian south of the Maritimes on Saturday, pushing through eastern Nova Scotia Saturday night. Severe wind gusts reaching 150 km/h are possible over parts of the province beginning Saturday afternoon and evening.

Flooding is also possible along the Atlantic coast due to storm surge and rough and pounding waves. The most likely period is from Saturday afternoon into the evening.

A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible over parts of the region within 36 hours. Hurricane conditions include (A) sustained winds near 120 km/h or more, and/or (B) significantly elevated water levels and dangerous surf along the coast.

By nature, a hurricane also implies the threat of local flooding from heavy rainfall - consult your local area forecast for possible rainfall warnings.

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. Reports of storm conditions and impacts can be emailed directly to NSstorm@canada.ca or by tweeting reports by province using #NSStorm, #NBStorm, #PEStorm, #NLwx, #QCStorm or #ONStorm.