Hurricane Fiona (Now A Category 2) Becomes Extratropical Just South Of Nova Scotia

000

WTNT32 KNHC 240253

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona Advisory Number  39

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072022

1100 PM AST Fri Sep 23 2022

...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING OVER NOVA SCOTIA AS 

FIONA NEARS...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...44.5N 60.8W

ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM E OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 46 MPH...74 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Nova Scotia from Hubbards to Brule

* Prince Edward Island

* Isle-de-la-Madeleine

* Newfoundland from Parson's Pond to Francois

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* St. Andrews New Brunswick to west of Hubbards Nova Scotia

* West of Brule Nova Scotia to Cap Madeleine Quebec

* Anticosti Island

* Sheldrake Quebec to north of Parson's Pond Newfoundland

* Boat Harbor to Hare Bay Newfoundland

* Francois to St Lawrence Newfoundland

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* North of Boat Harbor Newfoundland to West Bay Labrador

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life

and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona

was located near latitude 44.5 North, longitude 60.8 West. The

post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 46 mph (74

km/h).  A slower north-northeast or northward motion is expected 

through Sunday.  On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will 

move across eastern Nova Scotia overnight and into the Gulf of St.

Lawrence on Saturday morning, and then move across Labrador and 

over the Labrador Sea on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Although gradual weakening is forecast during the next 

couple of days, Fiona is expected to maintain hurricane-force winds 

through Saturday morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from

the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345

miles (555 km).  A wind gust to 88 mph (141 km/h) was recently 

observed at Beaver Island, Nova Scotia.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane 

Hunter observations is 933 mb (27.55 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Fiona can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC

and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in portions of the

hurricane warning area in Canada within the next few hours.

Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of the

tropical storm warning area in Canada.  Tropical storm conditions

are possible in the watch area in Labrador on Sunday.

RAINFALL:  Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and western Newfoundland: 3 to 6

inches (75 to 150 mm), with local maxima of up to 10 inches (250

mm). Flooding is expected, some of which could be significant.

Labrador and eastern Quebec:  2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm).

Eastern New Brunswick: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm).

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal

flooding within the warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of

onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by

large and destructive waves.

SURF:  Swells generated by Fiona are affecting Atlantic Canada, the

eastern United States coast, Bermuda, and the northwestern Bahamas.

The swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip

current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather

office.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.

Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$

Forecaster Pasch

000

WTNT42 KNHC 240254

TCDAT2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona Discussion Number  39

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072022

1100 PM AST Fri Sep 23 2022

Satellite images and observations from an Air Force Hurricane 

Hunter aircraft indicate that Fiona is now an intense 

extratropical cyclone.  The system's appearance has evolved into 

a comma-shaped cloud pattern with a frontal band extending well to 

the south and southwest.  Data from the Hurricane Hunters indicate 

that the radius of maximum winds is on the order of 100 miles or 

more.  Although the minimum central pressure is a very low 933 mb, 

the maximum winds have decreased to near 90 kt.

The cyclone has been moving very rapidly northward or around 360/40 

kt on the eastern side of a deep-layer trough.  Fiona should slow 

its forward speed while it interacts with the trough during the 

next couple of days.  The official track forecast has been adjusted 

a little to the west of the previous one for the next 12-24 hours, 

and is on the western side of the track model suite.  Fiona's 

center should move over eastern Nova Scotia shortly, and then 

traverse the eastern Gulf of Saint Lawrence, eastern Labrador and 

move over the southeastern Labrador Sea.  It should be repeated 

that strong winds, heavy rains, and storm surges are occurring well 

away from the center.

Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next couple of day, and 

Fiona's winds should drop below hurricane strength in 24 hours or 

so.  The system should wind down to a marginal gale center after 

moving into the southeastern Labrador Sea, and the global models 

indicate that the system should dissipate to the west of Greenland 

in about 4 days.  The official intensity forecast remains on the 

high end of the model guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Fiona is expected to affect portions of Atlantic Canada as a

powerful hurricane-force cyclone overnight, and significant impacts 

from high winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected. 

Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for much of 

Atlantic Canada.

2. Large swells generated by Fiona are expected to cause

life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along much of the

east coast of the United States, the northwestern Bahamas, Bermuda,

and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 44.5N  60.8W   90 KT 105 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

 12H  24/1200Z 47.5N  60.7W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 24H  25/0000Z 51.2N  60.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 36H  25/1200Z 54.6N  58.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 48H  26/0000Z 58.0N  57.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 60H  26/1200Z 60.6N  57.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 72H  27/0000Z 63.0N  57.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 96H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster Pasch

11:57 PM ADT Friday 23 September 2022

Tropical cyclone information statement for:

New Brunswick:

Acadian Peninsula

Bathurst and Chaleur Region

Campbellton and eastern half of Restigouche County

Grand Lake and Queens County

Grand Manan and Coastal Charlotte County

Kent County

Kouchibouguac National Park

Miramichi and area

Moncton and Southeast New Brunswick

Mount Carleton - Renous Highway

Oromocto and Sunbury County

Saint John and County

Stanley - Doaktown - Blackville Area

Sussex - Kennebecasis Valley and Kings County

Newfoundland and Labrador:

Cartwright to Black Tickle

Newfoundland

Norman Bay to Lodge Bay

Red Bay to L'Anse-au-Clair

Nova Scotia

Prince Edward Island

Québec - south:

Anticosti

Blanc-Sablon

Chevery

Forillon National Park - Gaspé - Percé

Grande-Vallée area

Îles-de-la-Madeleine

Minganie

Murdochville area

Natashquan

New Carlisle - Chandler

New Richmond - Bonaventure area

The next full information statement will be issued by 03:00 a.m. ADT.

Post-tropical Storm Fiona has begun impacting Atlantic Canada and eastern Quebec with heavy rainfall and powerful hurricane force winds, and will continue overnight and into Saturday.

1. Summary of basic information at 12:00 a.m. ADT.

Location: 44.5 North 60.8 West.

About 215 kilometres east of Halifax

Maximum sustained winds: 167 kilometres per hour.

Present movement: north at 74 kilometres per hour.

Minimum central pressure: 936 millibars.

2. Summary of latest information.

Fiona is on track to make landfall in the next few hours. This storm is producing severe winds and very heavy rainfall. Wide spread gusts of 80-110 km/h have been so far reported over Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and Iles-de-la-Madeleine, with a peak gusts to 144 km/h over Beaver Island, NS. Rainfall amounts have reached 60-90mm over eastern mainland Nova Scotia and Cape Breton. There is also a high likelihood of storm surge for parts of Nova Scotia, the Gulf of St. Lawrence, and western Newfoundland.

Forecaster(s): Hatt/White

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.

FXCN31 CWHX 240000

Tropical cyclone technical information statement issued by the

Canadian Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 8.32 PM ADT

Friday 23 September 2022.

The next statement will be issued by 3.00 AM ADT

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 9.00 PM ADT, hurricane Fiona was located near latitude 41.6 N and

longitude 59.8 W, about 140 nautical miles or 260 km south of Sable

Island. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 105 knots (194 km/h)

and central pressure at 935 MB. Fiona is moving north at 32 knots (59

km/h).

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date     time     lat    lon   MSLP  Max wind

          ADT                    MB  kts  kmh

Sep 23  9.00 PM  41.6N  59.8W   935  105  194

Sep 24  3.00 AM  44.4N  61.0W   936   90  167

Sep 24  9.00 AM  46.3N  61.2W   937   80  148 post-tropical

Sep 24  3.00 PM  47.4N  60.8W   938   75  139 post-tropical

Sep 24  9.00 PM  48.2N  59.9W   941   65  120 post-tropical

Sep 25  3.00 AM  49.5N  58.7W   944   60  111 post-tropical

Sep 25  9.00 AM  51.7N  57.6W   947   55  102 post-tropical

Sep 25  3.00 PM  53.8N  57.2W   950   45   83 post-tropical

Sep 25  9.00 PM  56.1N  57.5W   951   45   83 post-tropical

3. Technical discussion

A. Analysis

Fiona remains a very strong category 3 hurricane with initial

intensity set at 105 knots. However, recent satellite imagery shows

the extra-tropical process is underway as the eye has become obscured

and some frontal banding features are forming. There is also some

southwesterly shear impacting the system. Fiona is racing northward

at about 30 knots.

B. Prognostic

Fiona will continue to accelerate northward this evening under the

influence of the trough of low pressure to its northwest. The

hurricane will take a slight hook to the northwest as it becomes

under the influence of the aforementioned trough while it continues

to undergo extra-tropical transition. Then post-tropical storm Fiona

is expected to make landfall over Eastern Mainland Nova Scotia near

the town of Canso early Saturday morning while decelerating slightly

and maintaining sustained hurricane force winds. After moving near

the northern tip of Cape Breton, the storm will continue to weaken as

it tracks near the west coast of Newfoundland Saturday night then

eventually over the Labrador Sea later Sunday.

C. Predicted wind radii (NM)

Time          gales           storms            hurricane

         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW

24/00Z  255 260 250 225   120 130 115 105    85  95  75  65

24/06Z  275 275 285 245   125 135 120 110    90  95  65  60

24/12Z  295 280 300 245   120 130 105 100    75  80  50  45

24/18Z  315 285 310 240   115 125  90  85    60  60  30  25

25/00Z  300 260 275 195   110 120  70  70    60  60  15   0

25/06Z  280 235 240 145   100 110  50  50     0   0   0   0

25/12Z  245 200 195 100   100 110  50  50     0   0   0   0

25/18Z  210 160 150  50     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0

26/00Z  195 145 135  35     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0

END/MARCH/TIRONE/WHITE/HATT

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Caribou ME

902 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022

MEZ001-003-004-010-031-240915-

/O.CON.KCAR.WI.Y.0007.220924T0200Z-220924T2100Z/

Northwest Aroostook-Northern Somerset-Northern Piscataquis-

Central Piscataquis-Southern Piscataquis-

Including the cities of Allagash, Clayton Lake, Madawaska,

Fort Kent, Frenchville, Baker Lake, Billy-Jack Depot,

Baxter St Park, Chamberlain Lake, Churchill Dam, Mount Katahdin,

Greenville, Monson, Blanchard, Dover-Foxcroft, Milo, and Guilford

902 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph

  expected.

* WHERE...Northwest Aroostook, Northern Somerset, Northern

  Piscataquis, Central Piscataquis and Southern Piscataquis

  Counties.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and

  powerlines. Isolated to scattered power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high

profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$