Extratropical Storm Ida Batters The NE US, Will Soon Arrive Here

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WTNT34 KWNH 020235

TCPAT4

BULLETIN

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ida Advisory Number  28

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   AL092021

1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 01 2021

...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA CONTINUES TO BRING WIDESPREAD HEAVY

RAINFALL AND AREAS OF LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING ALONG AND

NEAR TRACK...

...AN ENHANCED RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW

JERSEY, SOUTHERN NEW YORK, AND FAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE

PRE-DAWN HOURS THURSDAY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...40.5N 74.3W

ABOUT 190 MI...300 KM ENE OF HAGERSTOWN MARYLAND

ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF HARRISBURG PENNSYLVANIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

Flood and Flash Flood Watches remain in effect for northern

portions of the Mid-Atlantic Region into southern New York and

southern New England.

Tornado Watches are in effect for portions of southern Connecticut,

northern New Jersey, and southern New York.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Ida

was located near latitude 40.5 North, longitude 74.3 West. The

post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 28 mph (44

km/h), and this motion is expected to continue overnight. 

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.

Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL: Post-Tropical Cyclone Ida will produce the following

rainfall totals:

Northern Mid Atlantic to Southern New England: 3 to 8 inches with

isolated higher amounts through Thursday.

Significant and life-threatening flash flooding is likely from the

Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, especially across highly

urbanized metropolitan areas and areas of steep terrain. Widespread

moderate and major river flooding impacts are forecast from eastern

West Virginia and western Maryland into southern Pennsylvania and

New Jersey, particularly in the Monongahela, Potomac, Susquehanna,

Delaware, lower Hudson and Coastal Connecticut river basins.

Widespread minor to isolated major river flooding is occurring or

forecast from the Lower Mississippi Valley into far western Alabama

and northeast Georgia. Some rivers will remain elevated into next

week.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ida, see the companion storm summary at

WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header of ACUS44 KWBC or at the following

link:

www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html

TORNADOES: The threat for a few tornadoes will continue across the

northern Mid Atlantic into far southern New England through the

remainder of tonight.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$

Forecaster Hurley

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 40.5N  74.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 12H  02/1200Z 42.3N  70.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 24H  03/0000Z 45.3N  64.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Flood Watch

National Weather Service Caribou ME

915 PM EDT Wed Sep 1 2021

MEZ016-017-029-030-021000-

/O.CON.KCAR.FF.A.0002.210902T0400Z-210903T0000Z/

/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

Interior Hancock-Central Washington-Coastal Hancock-Coastal

Washington-

Including the cities of Orland, Perry, Castine, Wesley, Aurora,

Princeton, Bucksport, Bar Harbor, Calais, Dedham, Cherryfield,

Amherst, Great Pond, Grand Lake Stream, Eastbrook, Eastport,

Ellsworth, and Machias

915 PM EDT Wed Sep 1 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of Coastal DownEast and Interior DownEast Maine,

  including the following areas, in Coastal DownEast Maine, Coastal

  Hancock and Coastal Washington. In Interior DownEast Maine,

  Central Washington and Interior Hancock.

* Through Thursday evening.

* Tropical moisture associated with the Remnants of Ida will bring

  heavy rainfall to the area.

* Rainfall rates will rapidly increase Thursday morning with heavy

  rain persisting into Thursday afternoon. Rainfall rates will

  likely exceed 1 inch per hour at times Thursday. Rainfall totals

  of 1.50 to 3.00 inches are expected from late tonight into late

  Thursday evening. Locally higher amounts are possible. These

  rainfall totals and rain rates could lead to flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action

should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

CB

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Caribou ME

353 PM EDT Wed Sep 1 2021

MEZ002-005-006-011-015-031-032-022000-

Northeast Aroostook-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-

Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-Southern Piscataquis-

Northern Washington-

353 PM EDT Wed Sep 1 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Highlands Maine, Far

Eastern Maine, Far Northern Maine and Penobscot Valley Maine.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Moderate to heavy at times rainfall is expected tomorrow morning

into the afternoon especially across the Central & Southern

Highlands. Rainfall will be heaviest across southern areas but this

is highly dependent on the exact track of the Remnants of Ida.

Rainfall totals will range from 0.25 to 0.50 inches in the north to

1.00 to 1.50 inches in the Bangor area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather

conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

$$

9:52 PM ADT Wednesday 01 September 2021

Rainfall warning in effect for:

Moncton and Southeast New Brunswick

Rain, at times heavy, is expected.

Total rainfall: 40 to 70 mm, with possibility of higher amounts.

Locations: southern New Brunswick.

Time span: Thursday morning to Friday morning.

Remarks: Periods of rain, at times heavy, Thursday morning into Thursday night with localized downpours possible. The rain is expected to taper to showers overnight Thursday, with showers persisting into Friday.

Heavy downpours can cause flash floods and water pooling on roads. Localized flooding in low-lying areas is possible.

Rainfall warnings are issued when significant rainfall is expected.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@canada.ca or tweet reports using #NBStorm.

9:51 PM ADT Wednesday 01 September 2021

Rainfall warning in effect for:

Cumberland County North and Cobequid Pass

Rain, at times heavy, is expected.

Total rainfall: 40 to 60 mm, with possibility of higher amounts.

Locations: Cumberland County.

Time span: Thursday morning through Friday morning.

Remarks: Periods of rain, at times heavy, are expected Thursday morning through Thursday night. Periods of rain or showers will continue overnight into Friday morning. There is still uncertainty where the highest rainfall amounts will fall, but currently highest amounts are expected in areas near the New Brunswick Border.

Heavy downpours can cause flash floods and water pooling on roads. Localized flooding in low-lying areas is possible.

Rainfall warnings are issued when significant rainfall is expected.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@canada.ca or tweet reports using #NSStorm.

9:51 PM ADT Wednesday 01 September 2021

Rainfall warning in effect for:

Queens County P.E.I.

Rain, at times heavy, is expected.

Total rainfall: 40 to 60 mm, with possibility of higher amounts.

Locations: Prince and Queens counties PEI.

Time span: Thursday morning to Friday morning.

Remarks: Periods of rain, at times heavy, Thursday morning into early Friday morning with localized downpours possible. The rain is then expected to taper to showers persisting through the day Friday, with northwest gusting to 70 or possibly 80 km/h developing through the day as well.

Heavy downpours can cause flash floods and water pooling on roads. Localized flooding in low-lying areas is possible.

Rainfall warnings are issued when significant rainfall is expected.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to PEstorm@canada.ca or tweet reports using #PEStorm.

9:50 PM ADT Wednesday 01 September 2021

Wind warning in effect for:

Miramichi and area

Strong winds that may cause damage are expected or occurring.

Maximum gusts: northerly 70 km/h, except 100 along parts of the coast.

Locations: Acadian Peninsula south to Miramichi and area.

Time span: early Friday morning through to the evening.

A low pressure system moving into the Gulf of St. Lawrence overnight into Friday will give intense northerly winds to eastern parts of New Brunswick, with winds gusting to 100 km/h along parts of the coast. Winds will gradually diminish to strong northwesterlies late in the day.

Gusty winds can damage soft shelters, tents and awnings at outdoor events. Loose objects may be tossed by the wind and cause injury or damage.

Wind warnings are issued when there is a significant risk of damaging winds.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@canada.ca or tweet

9:49 PM ADT Wednesday 01 September 2021

Special weather statement in effect for:

Fredericton and Southern York County

Significant rainfall is expected.

Total rainfall: 30 to 45 mm, with possibility of higher amounts.

Locations: Central New Brunswick.

Time span: Thursday morning into Friday morning.

Remarks: Moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Ida is expected to merge with a non-tropical weather system over the northeastern U.S. and bring significant rain to the province on Thursday and into Friday. Rain will spread across the province during the day and will likely become heavy at times in the afternoon and evening. Rain will gradually taper off overnight Thursday, but showers could linger into Friday afternoon. There is still uncertainty with the track of this low.

Rainfall warnings are in effect for much of southern New Brunswick.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@canada.ca or tweet reports using #NBStorm.

9:48 PM ADT Wednesday 01 September 2021

Special weather statement in effect for:

Kings County P.E.I.

Significant rainfall is possible.

Total rainfall: 20 to 40 mm, with possibility of higher amounts.

Locations: Kings County PEI.

Time span: Thursday morning into Friday.

Remarks: Moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Ida is expected to merge with a non-tropical weather system over the northeastern U.S. and bring significant rain to the province later Thursday and into early Friday. Rain will spread across the province in the morning and will likely become heavy at times Thursday afternoon and evening. Rainfall warnings are in effect for Prince and Queens counties.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to PEstorm@canada.ca or tweet

9:46 PM ADT Wednesday 01 September 2021

Special weather statement in effect for:

Halifax Metro and Halifax County West

Significant rainfall is expected.

Total rainfall: 30 to 50 mm, with possibility of higher amounts.

Locations: Nova Scotia.

Time span: Thursday morning into Friday morning.

Remarks: Moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Ida is expected to merge with a non-tropical weather system over the northeastern U.S. and bring significant rain to the province on Thursday and into Friday. Rain will spread across the province during the day and will likely become heavy at times in the afternoon and evening. Rain will gradually taper off beginning overnight Thursday, but showers could linger over northern and eastern regions into Friday afternoon. There is still uncertainty with the track of this low, but highest amounts are expected for northern and western mainland Nova Scotia.

A rainfall warning is in effect for Cumberland County.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@canada.ca or tweet reports using #NSStorm.