Here Comes That Fella Jose

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
305 PM EDT MON SEP 18 2017

...HIGH SURF EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TROPICAL SYSTEM JOSE WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO LONG PERIOD SWELLS ENTERING THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY, BUILDING UP TO 5 TO 9 FEET. THIS WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS
RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TUESDAY.

THESE BUILDING WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH RELATIVELY HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TO PRODUCE SOME SPLASH-OVER NEAR THE TIME OF
THE LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE.

MEZ023-NHZ014-190600-
/O.NEW.KGYX.SU.Y.0003.170918T1905Z-170919T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KGYX.CF.S.0019.170919T0300Z-170919T0500Z/
COASTAL YORK-COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
305 PM EDT MON SEP 18 2017

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY...

...A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDE...

* LOCATION...COASTAL YORK AND COASTAL ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES.

* SURF HEIGHT...BUILDING TO 5 TO 9 FEET.

* TIMING...THROUGH TUESDAY.

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE POSSIBLE.

* COASTAL FLOODING...SOME SPLASH-OVER POSSIBLE NEAR THE TIME OF
  HIGH TIDE LATE THIS EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING LOCALIZED BEACH EROSION AND
DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS.

&&
$$

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE FOR MAINE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
316 PM EDT MON SEP 18 2017

MEZ029-030-190330-
/O.NEW.KCAR.SU.Y.0002.170918T2100Z-170920T0000Z/
COASTAL HANCOCK-COASTAL WASHINGTON-
316 PM EDT MON SEP 18 2017

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CARIBOU HAS ISSUED A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY.

* SURF HEIGHT...6 TO 9 FEET

* TIMING...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

* IMPACTS...HIGH DANGEROUS SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL
  MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS.

* RIP CURRENTS...ARE POWERFUL CHANNELS OF WATER FLOWING QUICKLY
  AWAY FROM SHORE. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS. PAY ATTENTION
  TO FLAGS AND POSTED SIGNS.

* HIGH SURF...LARGE WAVES CAN PRESENT A DANGER TO PEOPLE ON
  ROCKS ABOVE THE WATER. STAY AWAY FROM ROCK OUTCROPS ALONG THE
  SHORELINE EXPOSED TO OCEAN WAVES...AS WAVES CAN EASILY SWEEP
  PEOPLE INTO THE COLD OCEAN WATER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION.

&&
$$

2:36 PM ADT Monday 18 September 2017
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

Nova Scotia:
Queens County
Shelburne County
Yarmouth County
For Hurricane Jose.

The next information statement will be issued by 9:00 p.m. ADT.

Hurricane Jose forecast to move northward and may stall not far to the south of Nova Scotia. Minimal land impacts expected.

1. Summary of basic information at 3:00 p.m. ADT.

Location: 34.3 North 71.3 West.

About 402 kilometres east-southeast of Cape Hatteras.

Maximum sustained winds: 120 kilometres per hour.

Present movement: North at 15 kilometres per hour.

Minimum central pressure: 977 millibars.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

Due to the slow motion of this storm there remains much doubt as to whether it will impact our weather directly. At the very least there will be persistent moisture and cloud cover over Nova Scotia as well as rough surf along the Atlantic coast throughout the week as the hurricane crawls along.

Hurricane Maria is currently approaching the Caribbean and be located near the Bahamas later this week, at which time we will be contemplating whether we will require bulletins for it. Tropical Depression Lee is dissipating in the mid Atlantic and is of no concern to Canada.

a. Wind.

So far it looks like just light to moderate southeasterly winds for Nova Scotia throughout most of the week. This flow pattern will keep skies mostly cloudy with some showers, drizzle and fog being the main theme especially along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia.

b. Rainfall.

Some showers from the outer fringes of Jose may reach Nova Scotia toward the middle of the week.

c. Surge/Waves.

Increasingly rough surf conditions can be expected along the Atlantic Coast of Nova Scotia From Tuesday onward. One to 2 metre swells are possible with a maximum of up to 3 metres over southwestern regions later this week.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Gale force east to southeast winds are expected for the southwestern portion of the Maritimes marine district Wednesday and Thursday.

Forecaster: March

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.

For more comprehensive information about track tables and forecast rationale, please see the Technical Discussion



ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number  54
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

The cloud pattern of Jose has not changed much during the day.  The
hurricane continues to lose some tropical characteristics, and it
remains asymmetric with most of the convective bands located to the
north of the center.  The initial wind speed is held at 65 kt based
on the earlier aircraft data.  Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter
plane is scheduled to investigate Jose this evening and will
provide a better assessment of the strength and structure of the
hurricane.

Jose is expected to remain over the warm Gulf Stream waters for
about another day, so even though the shear is high, the hurricane
will likely maintain its intensity during that time.  Shortly
thereafter, Jose is forecast to cross the north wall of the Gulf
Stream and move into a progressively drier air mass.  These
unfavorable conditions should cause a slow weakening trend and lead
to post-tropical transition, which is expected to be complete by day
3.  The NHC intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and
in good agreement with the consensus aids.

The hurricane continues to wobble around, but the general motion
is northward at 9 kt.  The overall track forecast philosophy is
unchanged.  A continued northward motion at about the same forward
speed is expected during the next day or so while the hurricane
remains on the west side of a mid-level ridge over the western
Atlantic.  Thereafter, a trough currently over central Canada is
expected to cause Jose to turn eastward in the 2 to 3 day time
frame.  The trough is then expected to lift out, leaving Jose in
weak steering currents and causing the cyclone to drift to the
south or southwest at the end of the forecast period.  Only minor
changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast, and this one
lies near the various consensus aids.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. While the center of Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore
of the U.S. coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some
direct impacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm
warning is in effect for the coast of Rhode Island and a part of
the Massachusetts coast, including Cape Cod.  Any deviation to the
left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and
magnitude of impacts elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from
Delaware to southern New England.

2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to
southern New England during the next several days.  Please see
products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days
in these areas.

4. Jose will produce heavy rain as it passes near southern New
England and the mid-Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Total
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected over eastern Long
Island, southeast Connecticut, southern Rhode Island, and southeast
Massachusetts, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket. While the
risk of flooding is currently limited in scope, any deviation to the
left of the forecast track, could bring heavier and more widespread
rainfall to southern New England, Long Island, New York City, and
New Jersey.  If this deviation were to occur, the risk of urban
flash flooding and some river flooding would increase.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/2100Z 34.8N  71.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  19/0600Z 35.9N  71.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  19/1800Z 37.4N  70.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  20/0600Z 38.9N  70.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  20/1800Z 39.9N  68.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  21/1800Z 40.0N  67.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  22/1800Z 39.4N  67.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  23/1800Z 38.5N  68.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

NNNN

000
FXUS61 KCAR 182105
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
505 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will remain over the area into Tuesday while
Hurricane Jose approaches southeastern New England. Jose will
turn eastward and track south of the Gulf of Maine Wednesday
into Thursday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

A warm front will lift north of the region overnight while high
pressure remains ridged across the forecast area. Satellite
imagery indicates low clouds still covering most of the Downeast
region. Across the remainder of the region, the low clouds have
eroded in some locations while persisting in others. Low level
moisture will persist across the region tonight. Skies will
remain cloudy Downeast tonight. Expect low clouds will re-
develop and bank up against the higher terrain across the rest
of the region overnight, similar to last night. Fog will also
move inland across Downeast areas early tonight along with
patchy drizzle and a chance of showers. Fog will re-develop
across the rest of the region, particularly east of the higher
terrain, overnight. A Dense Fog Advisory could be needed across
much of the region again later tonight. High pressure will
remain ridged across the region Tuesday, though moisture from
Hurricane Jose could begin to bring increasing rain chances to
Downeast areas during the afternoon. Otherwise, expect extensive
low clouds and fog early tomorrow across much of the region
east of the higher terrain. Skies will remain mostly cloudy
Downeast Tuesday. Across the remainder of the region, clouds
should lift and thin with partly/mostly cloudy skies during the
afternoon. Could also have a chance/slight chance of rain during
the afternoon across central and northern areas, with the
lesser rain chances to the north. Low temperatures tonight will
range through the 50s north, to the upper 50s Downeast. The
warmest temperatures Tuesday will again occur across northwest
areas where the most sun is expected with highs in the mid 70s.
High temperatures across much of the rest of the region will
range from the upper 60s to around 70, with mid to upper 60s
along the Downeast coast.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

The model guidance is in good general agreement through the
short term period of the forecast. A high pressure ridge will be
in place across northern Maine, with Hurricane Jose moving
north along the eastern seaboard east of NJ south of Long
Island. The feeder bands from Jose will interact with the
coastal front bringing showers and thunderstorms to Downeast
Maine. Jose is forecasted to move northeast and track across the
southern portions of the Gulf of Maine then drift back to the
southwest towards Cape Cod. By the end of the period Jose will
be south of Eastport, east of Cape Cod. The GFS, ECMWF, and GEM
all generally agree with minor timing and positional
differences.

Loaded a blend of the GFS/GEM/NAM/ECMWF to smooth out the minor
differences in the models. Loaded NAWAVE4 for seas in the
coastal waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool. For QPF used
GFS.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

High pressure will be ridged across Maine through most of the
extended period. Hurricane Jose will be in the north Atlantic
well south of Eastport and southeast of Cape Cod. Jose will
slowly drift south to southwest and begin to fill. A weak
frontal boundary will drop into northern Maine Sunday morning
bringing a few shower across the north. The high pressure ridge
will push this front back to the north Sunday evening and will
remain across the region through the end of the period.

Loaded a blend to smooth out the differences in the models,
however the solution leans more towards the GFS solution. Used
NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Used windgust by factor
tool.
&&