Tropical Storm Franklin A Potential Long-Range Threat Update One

000

WTNT33 KNHC 230244

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number  10

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082023

1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING 

LIKELY ON HISPANIOLA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...16.4N 71.4W

ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Dominican Republic entire south coast from Haiti border eastward

to Cabo Engano

* Dominican Republic entire north coast from Haiti border eastward

to Cabo Engano

* Haiti entire south coast from Anse d'Hainault eastward to the

Dominican Republic border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti should monitor the progress of this

system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was

located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 71.4 West. Franklin is

moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is

expected to continue the next day or so, followed by a turn toward 

the northeast by Thursday.  On the forecast track, the center of

Franklin is expected to approach the southern coast of Hispaniola

tonight, cross the island on Wednesday, and then emerge over the

southwestern Atlantic waters late Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher 

gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple 

of days while Franklin moves near and across Hispaniola.  Some 

strengthening is possible Friday as Franklin moves farther 

northeast over the southwestern Atlantic waters.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)

from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Franklin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC

and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

RAINFALL:  Franklin is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 

10 inches, with higher amounts around 15 inches mainly across 

central portions of Hispaniola through Wednesday. Rainfall totals of 

1 to 3 inches, with storm total maxima of 4 inches, are expected 

across Puerto Rico through Wednesday.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the

warning area tonight and continue through Wednesday. Tropical storm

conditions are possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands Wednesday

night.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of

Hispaniola in areas of onshore winds.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.

Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$

Forecaster Kelly/Blake

110 

WTNT43 KNHC 230245

TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number  10

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082023

1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023

The satellite presentation of Franklin has improved since the last 

advisory.  Recent Proxy Vis imagery suggest that the low-level 

circulation has become better defined, although there is still some 

question exactly where the center is.  The overall cloud pattern 

suggests the low-level center is closer to a recent burst of deep 

convection, closer to the mid-level circulation found by the last 

NOAA reconnaissance mission.  A blend of subjective and objective 

satellite estimates remain near 35 kt for this advisory, which is 

in agreement with what NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft found 

earlier. Therefore, the intensity will remain 35 kt for this 

advisory.

The system looks to have finally started a northward motion towards 

the island of Hispaniola, moving at 8 kt. The track guidance 

continues to be in fairly good agreement with a northward motion 

through tomorrow and then a northeastward course near the end of 

the work week due to broad troughing located over the western 

Atlantic.  By days 4 and 5, a stronger mid-level ridge develops over 

the central Atlantic, with Franklin expected to turn back to the 

north by the end of the forecast period.  Given the uncertainty in 

the center position, the current NHC forecast track lies near the 

previous forecast, which is also near the HCCA corrected consensus 

aid.

The new intensity forecast is fairly similar to the previous 

advisory. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day 

or so due to land interaction with Hispaniola and moderate wind 

shear. Gradual strengthening is anticipated after Franklin emerges 

north of Hispaniola due to warm waters but still notable shear. 

For days 4 and 5, when Franklin is still over the very warm western 

Atlantic waters, wind shear should decrease slightly, and  

strengthening is forecast, with the system becoming a hurricane by 

the end of the period. The NHC intensity forecast after day 3 is 

slightly higher than the previous advisory, but lower than the 

stronger HCCA and IVCN consensus aids.  

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Franklin is expected across much of 

Hispaniola into Thursday. The heavy rainfall is expected to produce 

significant and potentially life-threatening flash and urban 

flooding as well as mudslides, particularly over central Hispaniola 

through Wednesday.

2. Franklin is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to

portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, where Tropical Storm

Warnings are in effect, beginning later tonight and continuing

through Wednesday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 16.4N  71.4W   35 KT  40 MPH

 12H  23/1200Z 17.6N  71.2W   40 KT  45 MPH

 24H  24/0000Z 20.0N  70.6W   35 KT  40 MPH

 36H  24/1200Z 21.5N  69.9W   35 KT  40 MPH

 48H  25/0000Z 22.3N  68.9W   40 KT  45 MPH

 60H  25/1200Z 22.6N  67.9W   45 KT  50 MPH

 72H  26/0000Z 23.1N  67.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

 96H  27/0000Z 24.9N  66.7W   65 KT  75 MPH

120H  28/0000Z 28.7N  68.0W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$

Forecaster Kelly/Blake