Thursday, August 29, 2019

Extratropical Storm Erin lashes the Eastern half of Region

Extratropical Storm Erin makes landfall in SW Nova Scotia

FXCN31 CWHX 300000
Tropical cyclone technical information statement issued by the
Canadian Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 8.48 PM ADT
Thursday 29 August 2019.

The next statement will be issued by 3.00 AM ADT

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 9.00 PM ADT, post-tropical storm Erin was located near latitude
42.9 N and longitude 65.9 W, about 56 nautical miles or 105 km south
of Yarmouth. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 45 knots (83
km/h) and central pressure at 1002 MB. Erin is moving northeast at 24
knots (44 km/h).

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date     time     lat    lon   MSLP  Max wind
          ADT                    MB  kts  kmh
Aug 29  9.00 PM  42.9N  65.9W  1002   45   83 post-tropical
Aug 30  3.00 AM  44.5N  64.0W  1001   40   74 post-tropical
Aug 30  9.00 AM  46.7N  62.0W  1001   35   65 post-tropical
Aug 30  3.00 PM  49.3N  59.8W  1000   35   65 post-tropical

3. Technical discussion

A. Analysis

Post-tropical depression Erin has become embedded in a sharp
north-south trough and is becoming difficult to resolve. There is
still significant convection along the line north and south of Erin
or its remnants, and the track for Erin is basically showing the
eastward Progress of the trough. The motion of Erin is 24 kts to the
northeast, and it should make landfall over Southwestern Nova Scotia

B. Prognostic

Given the current storm structure deteriorating and the convectiive
forcing becoming less organised, as it moves through colder waters
the intensity will diminish to marginal gales tonight.  After
landfall Erin is no longer expected to be a discernable feature and
we will probably end messaging on it before Friday morning.

C. Predicted wind radii (NM)

Time          gales           storms            hurricane
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
30/00Z   35 130  35   0     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
30/06Z   40 130  40   0     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
30/12Z   40 140  40   0     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
30/18Z   40 140  40   0     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0


8:40 PM ADT Thursday 29 August 2019
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

New Brunswick:

Fredericton and Southern York County
Fundy National Park
Grand Lake and Queens County
Grand Manan and Coastal Charlotte County
Kent County
Kouchibouguac National Park
Moncton and Southeast New Brunswick
Oromocto and Sunbury County
Saint John and County
St. Stephen and Northern Charlotte County
Sussex - Kennebecasis Valley and Kings County
Nova Scotia

Prince Edward Island

For Post-tropical Storm Erin.

The next information statement will be issued by 03:00 a.m. ADT.

Post-tropical Erin will continue tracking northeastward into Nova Scotia while merging with a trough of low pressure. The remnants of Erin will continue to give heavy rain to southern portions of the Maritimes tonight, and strong gusty winds. The last message on this feature will be issued tonight.

1. Summary of basic information at 09:00 p.m. ADT.

Location: Near 42.9 North 65.9 West.

About distance 105 kilometres south of Yarmouth NS.

Maximum sustained winds: 80 kilometres per hour.

Present movement: Northeast at 45 kilometres per hour.

Minimum central pressure: 1002 millibars.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

The rain associated with the trough of low pressure combined with the remnants of Erin will move out of southeastern New Brunswick overnight and the rest of the Maritimes on Friday morning. The heavier rain and strongest winds associated directly with Post-tropical Erin should reach the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia this evening and after midnight for Cape Breton.

a. Wind.

Some gusty winds will likely accompany Post-tropical Erin, especially to those areas just to the right of its track as it moves into Nova Scotia tonight. These winds will not reach warning criteria (i.e. gusts to 90 km/h or higher), but could still be strong enough to cause isolated power outages and minor damage, especially given that trees are still in full leaf.

b. Rainfall.

The combination of Post-tropical Erin and its interaction with the trough of low pressure crossing the region will result in significant rainfall until Friday morning. More than 50 mm has been reported in parts of the Maritimes, especially those areas just north and west of Erin's track. Some locations could possibly see total rainfall amounts in excess of 100 mm before the rain ends later Friday morning.

Rainfall warnings are still in effect for southern New Brunswick, western and northern Nova Scotia, and Prince Edward Island.

c. Surge/Waves.

Significant storm surge and coastal impacts from high waves are not expected. After midnight into Friday morning, waves near 3 to 4 metres will spread from west to east along the Atlantic Coast of Nova Scotia and will break higher along the beaches. Rip currents could also be an issue, and the public should exercise caution near the coast.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Gale warnings are in effect near and to the right of Erin's track through the marine district, where gale force southerlies up to 35 knots are possible. Winds may reach 45 knots over West Scotian Slope.

Forecaster(s): Couturier/Mercer

Erin arrives