Sunday, August 23, 2009

Hurricane Bill Makes Landfall in Newfoundland as a Category One










WOCN31 CWHX 240300 CCA
Tropical storm Bill intermediate information statement issued
By the canadian hurricane centre of Environment Canada at
12.30 midnight NDT Sunday 23 August 2009.

The next statement will be issued by 3.30 AM NDT

At 12.30 AM NDT... Hurricane Bill was located near latitude
47.1 N and longitude 55.5 W. Bill is now on the Burin
Peninsula as Winterland shows winds veering rapidly to the
Southerly quadrants.

Bill is accelerating east northeastward at 40 knots... 74 km/h.
Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 65 knots... 120 km/h and
central pressure at 975 MB.

Sateliite showing signature swirl of circulation centre which
Is tilted forward from the surface centre.

The fact that Bill.. As a marginal hurricane of 65 knots..
Is moving through cold water indicates that its status will
Be shortly downgraded to a tropical storm. Quickscat and an
examination of wind obs as of late show a good area of
Storm force winds but none of hurrican3e strength. However..
We fell it is prudent for us to keep Bill as a hurricane for this
issue as it approaches and moves through the Burin Peninsula.

A post analysis in the future will determine whether Bill made
Land fall as a marginal cat 1 hurricane or as a tropical storm.

The storm and hurricane force winds and large waves in the
Southern quadrant of hurricane Bill are forecast to spread into
The eastern marine district of the Maritimes early this evening
And to the waters of Southeastern Newfoundland tonight. The envelope
of high seas carried with hurricane Bill will strike coastal regions
of Newfoundland facing the brunt of Bill. A storm surge warning is
In effect for the southeasternmost portions of Newfoundland as the
centre of Bill is expected to track across land there.

A storm surge warning is maintained for the area around
Placentia Bay and the Burin Peninsula in Newfoundland as the
Large waves combine with storm surge from Bill continue raise
Water levels 50 to possibly 90 centimetres above high tide
Shortly.

Public and marine interests are advised to monitor forecasts
And warnings issued for their region by Environment Canada.

End March/campbell




WOCN31 CWHX 240300 CCA
TROPICAL STORM BILL INTERMEDIATE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED
BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT
12.30 MIDNIGHT NDT SUNDAY 23 AUGUST 2009.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.30 AM NDT

AT 12.30 AM NDT... HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
47.1 N AND LONGITUDE 55.5 W. BILL IS NOW ON THE BURIN
PENINSULA AS WINTERLAND SHOWS WINDS VEERING RAPIDLY TO THE
SOUTHERLY QUADRANTS.

BILL IS ACCELERATING EAST NORTHEASTWARD AT 40 KNOTS... 74 KM/H.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS... 120 KM/H AND
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 975 MB.

SATELIITE SHOWING SIGNATURE SWIRL OF CIRCULATION CENTRE WHICH
IS TILTED FORWARD FROM THE SURFACE CENTRE.

THE FACT THAT BILL.. AS A MARGINAL HURRICANE OF 65 KNOTS..
IS MOVING THROUGH COLD WATER INDICATES THAT ITS STATUS WILL
BE SHORTLY DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. QUICKSCAT AND AN
EXAMINATION OF WIND OBS AS OF LATE SHOW A GOOD AREA OF
STORM FORCE WINDS BUT NONE OF HURRICAN3E STRENGTH. HOWEVER..
WE FELL IT IS PRUDENT FOR US TO KEEP BILL AS A HURRICANE FOR THIS
ISSUE AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE BURIN PENINSULA.

A POST ANALYSIS IN THE FUTURE WILL DETERMINE WHETHER BILL MADE
LAND FALL AS A MARGINAL CAT 1 HURRICANE OR AS A TROPICAL STORM.

THE STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND LARGE WAVES IN THE
SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF HURRICANE BILL ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO
THE EASTERN MARINE DISTRICT OF THE MARITIMES EARLY THIS EVENING
AND TO THE WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT. THE ENVELOPE
OF HIGH SEAS CARRIED WITH HURRICANE BILL WILL STRIKE COASTAL REGIONS
OF NEWFOUNDLAND FACING THE BRUNT OF BILL. A STORM SURGE WARNING IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF NEWFOUNDLAND AS THE
CENTRE OF BILL IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS LAND THERE.

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS MAINTAINED FOR THE AREA AROUND
PLACENTIA BAY AND THE BURIN PENINSULA IN NEWFOUNDLAND AS THE
LARGE WAVES COMBINE WITH STORM SURGE FROM BILL CONTINUE RAISE
WATER LEVELS 50 TO POSSIBLY 90 CENTIMETRES ABOVE HIGH TIDE
SHORTLY.

PUBLIC AND MARINE INTERESTS ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR FORECASTS
AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THEIR REGION BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA.

END MARCH/CAMPBELL

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

000
WTNT33 KNHC 240232
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 23 2009

...BILL APPROACHING SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND...EXPECTED TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL ON MONDAY...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR NOVA SCOTIA AND PRINCE
EDWARD ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NEWFOUNDLAND FROM
BURGEO EASTWARD AROUND THE AVALON PENINSULA AND NORTHWARD TO FOGO
ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PARSONS POND
TO BURGEO ON THE WEST AND SOUTH COAST AND FROM FOGO ISLAND TO
HARBOUR DEEP ON THE NORTHEAST COAST.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 47.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.5 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES...
190 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF BILL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BILL IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE TRACK OF BILL ACROSS
NEWFOUNDLAND.

LARGE AND DANGEROUS SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF CANADA OVERNIGHT.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...47.1N 55.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 40 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

000
WTNT43 KNHC 240234
TCDAT3
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 23 2009

BILL STILL HAS STRUCTURAL CHARACTERISTICS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
WITH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND A FRAGMENT OF AN EYEWALL
VISIBLE IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM A 2304 UTC SSMIS PASS. BASED ON
THE INNER-CORE STRUCTURE...AND A DVORAK CI NUMBER OF 4.0 FROM TAFB
AT 0000 UTC...BILL IS MAINTAINED AS A 65 KT HURRICANE FOR THIS
ADVISORY.

BILL HAS ACCELERATED TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/35. BILL IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ON AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD HEADING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE
TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.
AFTER 48 HOURS...BILL WILL SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AS
IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF ICELAND. BILL WILL EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED INTO
THIS LARGER CIRCULATION BY 96 HOURS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND IS CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

BILL IS BEGINNING TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN EXPANDING NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER IN
THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140-KT UPPER-LEVEL JET CORE CENTERED ALONG
55N. ALSO...DATA FROM A 2226 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS ALONG WITH NUMEROUS
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE WIND FIELD OF BILL HAS BEGUN TO
EXPAND...PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT BILL WILL COMPLETE THE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT
TIME...UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET WILL HELP
MAINTAIN BILL AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING AS BILL MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC. AS BILL BECOMES FULLY EXTRATROPICAL...THE WIND
FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE.

LARGE AND DANGEROUS SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH BILL WILL CONTINUE
IMPACTING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...
WHILE SWELLS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0300Z 47.1N 55.5W 65 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 49.1N 47.9W 55 KT
24HR VT 25/0000Z 50.8N 36.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 25/1200Z 52.2N 24.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 26/0000Z 53.5N 14.7W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 27/0000Z 61.0N 2.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Hurricane Bill Heads Towards Landfall in Newfoundland #2





WOCN31 CWHX 240000
Hurricane Bill information statement issued by the canadian
Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 9.00 PM ADT Sunday
23 August 2009.

The next statement will be issued by 12.00 midnight ADT

...Bill on its way to Southeastern Newfoundland..Surge and wave
Threat increasing for Avalon/Burin region...

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 9.00 PM ADT... Hurricane Bill was located near latitude 46.3 N
And longitude 58.3 W... About 75 nautical miles or 135 km east of
Sydney . Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 65 knots... 120
Km/h... And central pressure at 970 MB. Bill is moving
East northeast at 40 knots... 74 km/h.

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
ADT MB kts kmh
Aug 23 9.00 PM 46.3N 58.3W 970 65 120
Aug 24 3.00 AM 48.1N 52.9W 978 55 102
Aug 24 9.00 AM 49.2N 48.1W 985 50 93 post-tropical
Aug 24 3.00 PM 50.2N 42.9W 990 50 93 post-tropical
Aug 24 9.00 PM 50.9N 36.8W 990 50 93 post-tropical

3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary

For the Maritimes:
Tropical storm warnings are in effect for eastern mainland Nova
Scotia and Cape Breton as well as eastern pei. Wind speeds of
65 km/h with gusts to 90 are occurring over these areas.

The hurricane watch is ended for Eastern Nova Scotia.

For Newfoundland:
Tropical storm warnings are in effect for Eastern Newfoundland.
Wind speeds of 70 km/h with gusts to 100 and local wind gusts to
120 km/h over exposed coastal areas are expected to the south of
The storm track. Tropical storm watch for remaining regions of
Newfoundland except the Northern Peninsula.

Weather impacts:

Rainfall...
A swath of very heavy rain will fall to the north and along the storm
track. Rainfall amounts of 50 to 100 mm are expected over
Southern and Central Newfoundland. Local amounts exceeding 100 mm
Are possible. As a result..Local flooding can be expected in
flood-prone areas. Heavy downpours will reduce visibilities and lead
to standing water presenting a hazard to motorists. Heavy rainfall
Has the potential to cause street flooding..Undermining of some road
Surfaces..Washouts and flooded basements.

Winds...
The presence of strong east to northeasterly winds and rain-laden
tree foliage could lead to the breaking of some tree branches which
would down some utility lines. Please stay tuned in the event that
the storm behavior changes where the wind threat could also change.
Winds have already caused tree damage and lead to power outages for
thousands of residents in Southern Nova Scotia.

Coastal surf and surge...
A combination of storm surge (0.5 to 1.0 metres) and heavy surf
(significant waves ranging from 5 to 10 metres) is forecast over
Southeastern Newfoundland. A local surge up to 1.2 metres is
possible in Placentia Bay where a storm surge warning is in effect.
Wave and surge conditions may lead to shoreline erosion and damage
To wharves and coastal structures. It is worthy to note that spring
Tides are occurring..Increasing the threat of coastal flooding
especially in the Argentia and placentia area where the storm is
expected to arrive near the local high tide. Reports of coastal
flooding and inundation have already been reported in Nova Scotia.
Additional observational details have appeared in the 6.00 PM
intermediate bulletin.

Attention: spectators are strongly advised to keep a safe distance
from the shoreline due to the rapid approach of large waves.

4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary

Hurricane force wind warnings are in effect over Banquereau marine
district. Storm warnings are in effect for areas just north of the
track. Large waves generated by Bill over offshore waters are
Ranging from 10 to 14 metres south of the track. Further details
Are available in the local sea state forecasts. The envelope of
High seas carried with Bill will strike coastal regions of
Newfoundland facing the brunt of the storm. A storm surge warning
Is in effect for the southeasternmost portions of Newfoundland..
Particularly Placentia Bay..As the centre of Bill is expected to
track just to the north.

5. Technical discussion for meteorologists

A. Analysis

Bill is still being scanned by weather radar and shows a distinct
signature about 60 NM off shore from Cape Breton. It continues
To track toward Newfoundland. As mentioned.. Rainfalls amounts
Over Nova Scotia tallied up to 60 mm in several localities
With one unofficial report received of 90 mm.

B. Prognostic

No change in basic track and intensity. The storm centre is now over
cooler water so will diminish in intensity. Hurricane force winds
will remain well offshore south of the track. We have observed
Strong winds north of the track and continue to expect this to be
The case as the large circulation of Bill moves northeast.

As noted in previous messages by our office..Extra tropical
transition is much delayed due to the pre-existing tropical airmass
that has been present over Eastern Canada for much of mid August.
This amounts to Bill retaining tropical characteristics longer than
usual. Some traits of extratropical transition are apparent with the
Sheared cloud mass..But there are no fronts associated with this
storm.

C. Public weather
The maximum rainfall is expected over the length of Nova Scotia
And into Central Newfoundland relatively close to the track given
The persisting tropical character of this storm.

D. Marine weather
Radii trimmed-back from previous package in the short term..But
remain similar as previous package as the storm crosses the
Newfoundland region.

Predicted wind radii (NM)
Time gales storms hurricane
Ne se sw nw ne se sw nw ne se sw nw
24/00Z 250 290 190 130 130 170 0 0 45 60 0 0
24/06Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 50 40 0 0 0 0
24/12Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 0 0 0 0
24/18Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 0 0 0 0
25/00Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 0 0 0 0


End fogarty/nickerson/campbell




WOCN31 CWHX 240000
HURRICANE BILL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT SUNDAY
23 AUGUST 2009.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 12.00 MIDNIGHT ADT

...BILL ON ITS WAY TO SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND..SURGE AND WAVE
THREAT INCREASING FOR AVALON/BURIN REGION...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 46.3 N
AND LONGITUDE 58.3 W... ABOUT 75 NAUTICAL MILES OR 135 KM EAST OF
SYDNEY . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS... 120
KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 970 MB. BILL IS MOVING
EAST NORTHEAST AT 40 KNOTS... 74 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
AUG 23 9.00 PM 46.3N 58.3W 970 65 120
AUG 24 3.00 AM 48.1N 52.9W 978 55 102
AUG 24 9.00 AM 49.2N 48.1W 985 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 24 3.00 PM 50.2N 42.9W 990 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 24 9.00 PM 50.9N 36.8W 990 50 93 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

FOR THE MARITIMES:
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN MAINLAND NOVA
SCOTIA AND CAPE BRETON AS WELL AS EASTERN PEI. WIND SPEEDS OF
65 KM/H WITH GUSTS TO 90 ARE OCCURRING OVER THESE AREAS.

THE HURRICANE WATCH IS ENDED FOR EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA.

FOR NEWFOUNDLAND:
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.
WIND SPEEDS OF 70 KM/H WITH GUSTS TO 100 AND LOCAL WIND GUSTS TO
120 KM/H OVER EXPOSED COASTAL AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH OF
THE STORM TRACK. TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR REMAINING REGIONS OF
NEWFOUNDLAND EXCEPT THE NORTHERN PENINSULA.

WEATHER IMPACTS:

RAINFALL...
A SWATH OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL TO THE NORTH AND ALONG THE STORM
TRACK. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 50 TO 100 MM ARE EXPECTED OVER
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEWFOUNDLAND. LOCAL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 100 MM
ARE POSSIBLE. AS A RESULT..LOCAL FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED IN
FLOOD-PRONE AREAS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND LEAD
TO STANDING WATER PRESENTING A HAZARD TO MOTORISTS. HEAVY RAINFALL
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE STREET FLOODING..UNDERMINING OF SOME ROAD
SURFACES..WASHOUTS AND FLOODED BASEMENTS.

WINDS...
THE PRESENCE OF STRONG EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND RAIN-LADEN
TREE FOLIAGE COULD LEAD TO THE BREAKING OF SOME TREE BRANCHES WHICH
WOULD DOWN SOME UTILITY LINES. PLEASE STAY TUNED IN THE EVENT THAT
THE STORM BEHAVIOR CHANGES WHERE THE WIND THREAT COULD ALSO CHANGE.
WINDS HAVE ALREADY CAUSED TREE DAMAGE AND LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES FOR
THOUSANDS OF RESIDENTS IN SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA.

COASTAL SURF AND SURGE...
A COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE (0.5 TO 1.0 METRES) AND HEAVY SURF
(SIGNIFICANT WAVES RANGING FROM 5 TO 10 METRES) IS FORECAST OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. A LOCAL SURGE UP TO 1.2 METRES IS
POSSIBLE IN PLACENTIA BAY WHERE A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT.
WAVE AND SURGE CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO SHORELINE EROSION AND DAMAGE
TO WHARVES AND COASTAL STRUCTURES. IT IS WORTHY TO NOTE THAT SPRING
TIDES ARE OCCURRING..INCREASING THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING
ESPECIALLY IN THE ARGENTIA AND PLACENTIA AREA WHERE THE STORM IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEAR THE LOCAL HIGH TIDE. REPORTS OF COASTAL
FLOODING AND INUNDATION HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN NOVA SCOTIA.
ADDITIONAL OBSERVATIONAL DETAILS HAVE APPEARED IN THE 6.00 PM
INTERMEDIATE BULLETIN.

ATTENTION: SPECTATORS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO KEEP A SAFE DISTANCE
FROM THE SHORELINE DUE TO THE RAPID APPROACH OF LARGE WAVES.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT OVER BANQUEREAU MARINE
DISTRICT. STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR AREAS JUST NORTH OF THE
TRACK. LARGE WAVES GENERATED BY BILL OVER OFFSHORE WATERS ARE
RANGING FROM 10 TO 14 METRES SOUTH OF THE TRACK. FURTHER DETAILS
ARE AVAILABLE IN THE LOCAL SEA STATE FORECASTS. THE ENVELOPE OF
HIGH SEAS CARRIED WITH BILL WILL STRIKE COASTAL REGIONS OF
NEWFOUNDLAND FACING THE BRUNT OF THE STORM. A STORM SURGE WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF NEWFOUNDLAND..
PARTICULARLY PLACENTIA BAY..AS THE CENTRE OF BILL IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK JUST TO THE NORTH.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS

BILL IS STILL BEING SCANNED BY WEATHER RADAR AND SHOWS A DISTINCT
SIGNATURE ABOUT 60 NM OFF SHORE FROM CAPE BRETON. IT CONTINUES
TO TRACK TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND. AS MENTIONED.. RAINFALLS AMOUNTS
OVER NOVA SCOTIA TALLIED UP TO 60 MM IN SEVERAL LOCALITIES
WITH ONE UNOFFICIAL REPORT RECEIVED OF 90 MM.

B. PROGNOSTIC

NO CHANGE IN BASIC TRACK AND INTENSITY. THE STORM CENTRE IS NOW OVER
COOLER WATER SO WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE SOUTH OF THE TRACK. WE HAVE OBSERVED
STRONG WINDS NORTH OF THE TRACK AND CONTINUE TO EXPECT THIS TO BE
THE CASE AS THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF BILL MOVES NORTHEAST.

AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS MESSAGES BY OUR OFFICE..EXTRA TROPICAL
TRANSITION IS MUCH DELAYED DUE TO THE PRE-EXISTING TROPICAL AIRMASS
THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER EASTERN CANADA FOR MUCH OF MID AUGUST.
THIS AMOUNTS TO BILL RETAINING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LONGER THAN
USUAL. SOME TRAITS OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION ARE APPARENT WITH THE
SHEARED CLOUD MASS..BUT THERE ARE NO FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
STORM.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
THE MAXIMUM RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE LENGTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
AND INTO CENTRAL NEWFOUNDLAND RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE TRACK GIVEN
THE PERSISTING TROPICAL CHARACTER OF THIS STORM.

D. MARINE WEATHER
RADII TRIMMED-BACK FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE IN THE SHORT TERM..BUT
REMAIN SIMILAR AS PREVIOUS PACKAGE AS THE STORM CROSSES THE
NEWFOUNDLAND REGION.

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
24/00Z 250 290 190 130 130 170 0 0 45 60 0 0
24/06Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 50 40 0 0 0 0
24/12Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 0 0 0 0
24/18Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 0 0 0 0
25/00Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 0 0 0 0


END FOGARTY/NICKERSON/CAMPBELL
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

000
WTNT33 KNHC 232331
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
800 PM AST SUN AUG 23 2009

...BILL RACING TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS EFFECT FOR NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM
SECUM TO BRULE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BRULE
TO MALAGASH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
FROM SAVAGE HARBOUR TO WOOD ISLANDS EAST. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM VICTORIA TO WOOD ISLANDS EAST AND FROM
SAVAGE HARBOUR TO LOWER DARNLEY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NEWFOUNDLAND FROM
BURGEO EASTWARD AROUND THE AVALON PENINSULA AND NORTHWARD TO FOGO
ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PARSONS POND
TO BURGEO ON THE WEST AND SOUTH COAST AND FROM FOGO ISLAND TO
HARBOUR DEEP ON THE NORTHEAST COAST.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 46.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.9 WEST OR ABOUT 230 MILES...
375 KM...WEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 35 MPH...56 KM/HR...AND AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF BILL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND LATER TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BILL IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290
MILES...465 KM. WITHIN THE LAST TWO HOURS...SABLE ISLAND REPORTED A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 48 MPH...78 KM/HR...AND A PEAK WIND GUST OF 63
MPH...102 KM/HR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE TRACK OF BILL ACROSS
NEWFOUNDLAND. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE EASTERN END OF NOVA SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND.

LARGE AND DANGEROUS SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF CANADA TONIGHT.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...46.2N 57.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 35 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Hurricane Bill Heads Towards Landfall in Newfoundland #1


Hurricane Bill Pounds Nova Scotia #4











WOCN31 CWHX 232100
Hurricane Bill intermediate information statement issued by the
canadian hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 6.00 PM ADT
Sunday 23 August 2009.

The next statement will be issued by 9.00 PM ADT

At 6.00 PM ADT... Hurricane Bill was located near latitude
45.1 N and longitude 60.8 W... About 40 nautical miles or 70 km
South of louisbourg Nova Scotia.

Bill is accelerating towards the northeast at 30 knots... 55 km/h.
Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 65 knots... 120 km/h and
central pressure at 970 MB.

The eye of hurricane Bill became evident on conventional radar
imnagery from gore Nova Scotia early this afternoon and at its
closest approach was 75 kilometres south of the Halifax regional
municipality.

Hurricane Bill continues to race northeastward just off the coast
Of Guysborough County and has become very sheared to the east..
However it remains very tropical with no evidence of baroclinicity.
There is very little precipitation remaining on the west side. The
storm rainbands have contracted somewhat but the spatial coverage
Of the rainfall near the centre of Bill is expanding.

The centre of hurricane Bill passed south of the Georges Bank
Buoy between 08 and 09 UTC then south of the Browns Bank buoy
Between 10 and 12 UTC. The centre then passed north of the Lahave
Bank buoy between 12 and 13 UTC. That buoy recorded a maximum
significant wave of 13.4 metres with a maximum wave height of
26.4 metres and a maximum wind speed of 73 knots. This was the
highest reported wind speed from the buoy netwrok through to
20Z. The highest significant wave height reported by the Environment
Canada offshore buoy network up to 20 UTC was 14.1 metres on the east
Scotian Slope.

The storm and hurricane force winds and large waves in the
Southern quadrant of hurricane Bill are forecast to spread into
The eastern marine district of the Maritimes early this evening
And to the waters of Southeastern Newfoundland tonight. The envelope
of high seas carried with hurricane Bill will strike coastal regions
of Newfoundland facing the brunt of Bill. A storm surge warning is
In effect for the southeasternmost portions of Newfoundland as the
centre of Bill is expected to track across land there.

Rainfall.. Southern Nova Scotia was battered by rainbands from
hurricane Bill this morning where rainfall rates of 15 to 20
millimetres per hour caused localized flooding of streets and
Roads and some basements. Some road surfaces were washed away.
Rainfall totals in the rainbands were in the 50 to 75 mm range.
The highest official rainfall total by 18 UTC was 65.2 mm at
Yarmouth airport. Rainbands and torrential rainfalls from Bill moved
in Halifax regional municipality before noon causing some catch
basins to overfill and streets to flood. Localized property flooding
was
Also reported due to the rapid rainfall rates. Total rainfall
Amounts across the hrm were near 55 millimetres. Rain from Bill moved
into the eastern sections of Nova Scotia
And Cape Breton this afternoon and complete totals are not yet
available. Rainfall rates of 15 to 25 millimetres per hour
Can be expected making driving conditions hazardous with reduced
visibilities and standing water on roadways. This heavy rainfall
Has the potential to cause street and road flooding.. Undermine
Some road surfaces.. Washouts and flooded basements. The outer edges
of the rain from Bill reached Prince Edward
Island and Northern Nova Scotia where rainfall totals island
Were lower than areas of Nova Scotia. Total rainfall amounts
Will be available at 00 UTC. One outer rainband from hurricane Bill
also stalled across
Southern New Brunswick for a time this morning. High rainfall
Amounts were very localized with Moncton receiving 30 millimetres
And St Stephen reporting 35 millimetres. Meanwhile Saint John
received only 6 millimetres as the rainband was to their north
And the rain from Bill never made it across the Bay of Fundy. Heavy
rainfalls will reach much of Newfoundland tonight where localized
amounts could still exceed 100 mm.

Winds.. Tropical storm force winds were reported in many areas
Of Nova Scotia. In Southern Nova Scotia.. Yarmouth airport and
Lunenburg reported 43 knots (80 km/h).. And Baccaro Point 46 knots
(85 km/h). Across the Halifax regional municipality the highest
recorded wind was 47 knots (87 km/h). The strongest winds have
Just moved into Eastern Nova Scotia.. Prince Edward Island and
Cape Breton. At the height of the storm.. Nova Scotia power
Reported 10 of thousands of customers without power. There were
reports of trees down in some areas while flights and ferry
Services were canceled in most regions for some time.
For southeastern regions of the Newfoundland.. From east of harbour
Breton to Bonavista with potential wind speeds of 70 km/h with
Gusts to 100 and local wind gusts to 120 km/h over exposed
Coastal areas to the south of the storm track. Elsewhere over the
island except the Northern Peninsula there is potential for gusts
To 90 km/h.

Waves and storm surge.. Large waves reported over all sections
Of coastal Nova Scotia. The buoy outside of Halifax harbour reported
a significant wave height of 9.0 metres at 18 UTC with a maximum
Wave height of 14.9 metres. These large waves inundated some
Roadways and forced local police services to close many coastal
roads. There were reports that a road along Bedford Basin in
Halifax was also underwater. The waves are now subsiding from
Halifax westward but the eastern shore and Cape Breton can
Expect these conditions for a few more hours this evening.
The combination of storm surge (0.5 to 1.0 metres) and heavy
Surf (significant waves ranging from 5 to 10 metres) is also
Expected in Southern Newfoundland. These conditions may lead to
shoreline erosion and damage to wharves and coastal structures as
well as generating dangerous rip currents at local beaches. It is
Worthy to note that spring tides are occurring this weekend..
Increasing the threat of coastal flooding. A storm surge warning has
been issued for the area around
Placentia Bay and the Burin Peninsula in Newfoundland as the
Large waves combine with storm surge from Bill to raise
Water levels 50 to possibly 90 centimetres above high tide
Near midnight.

Spectators are strongly advised to keep a safe distance
From the shoreline due to the rapid approach of large waves.

Public and marine interests are advised to monitor forecasts
And warnings issued for their region by Environment Canada.

END/NICKERSON/FOGARTY




WOCN31 CWHX 232100
HURRICANE BILL INTERMEDIATE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 6.00 PM ADT
SUNDAY 23 AUGUST 2009.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT

AT 6.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
45.1 N AND LONGITUDE 60.8 W... ABOUT 40 NAUTICAL MILES OR 70 KM
SOUTH OF LOUISBOURG NOVA SCOTIA.

BILL IS ACCELERATING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 30 KNOTS... 55 KM/H.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS... 120 KM/H AND
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 970 MB.

THE EYE OF HURRICANE BILL BECAME EVIDENT ON CONVENTIONAL RADAR
IMNAGERY FROM GORE NOVA SCOTIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND AT ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH WAS 75 KILOMETRES SOUTH OF THE HALIFAX REGIONAL
MUNICIPALITY.

HURRICANE BILL CONTINUES TO RACE NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFF THE COAST
OF GUYSBOROUGH COUNTY AND HAS BECOME VERY SHEARED TO THE EAST..
HOWEVER IT REMAINS VERY TROPICAL WITH NO EVIDENCE OF BAROCLINICITY.
THERE IS VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION REMAINING ON THE WEST SIDE. THE
STORM RAINBANDS HAVE CONTRACTED SOMEWHAT BUT THE SPATIAL COVERAGE
OF THE RAINFALL NEAR THE CENTRE OF BILL IS EXPANDING.

THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE BILL PASSED SOUTH OF THE GEORGES BANK
BUOY BETWEEN 08 AND 09 UTC THEN SOUTH OF THE BROWNS BANK BUOY
BETWEEN 10 AND 12 UTC. THE CENTRE THEN PASSED NORTH OF THE LAHAVE
BANK BUOY BETWEEN 12 AND 13 UTC. THAT BUOY RECORDED A MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF 13.4 METRES WITH A MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF
26.4 METRES AND A MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 73 KNOTS. THIS WAS THE
HIGHEST REPORTED WIND SPEED FROM THE BUOY NETWROK THROUGH TO
20Z. THE HIGHEST SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT REPORTED BY THE ENVIRONMENT CANADA
OFFSHORE BUOY NETWORK UP TO 20 UTC WAS 14.1 METRES ON THE EAST
SCOTIAN SLOPE.

THE STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND LARGE WAVES IN THE
SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF HURRICANE BILL ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO
THE EASTERN MARINE DISTRICT OF THE MARITIMES EARLY THIS EVENING
AND TO THE WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT. THE ENVELOPE
OF HIGH SEAS CARRIED WITH HURRICANE BILL WILL STRIKE COASTAL REGIONS
OF NEWFOUNDLAND FACING THE BRUNT OF BILL. A STORM SURGE WARNING IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF NEWFOUNDLAND AS THE
CENTRE OF BILL IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS LAND THERE.

RAINFALL.. SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA WAS BATTERED BY RAINBANDS FROM
HURRICANE BILL THIS MORNING WHERE RAINFALL RATES OF 15 TO 20
MILLIMETRES PER HOUR CAUSED LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND
ROADS AND SOME BASEMENTS. SOME ROAD SURFACES WERE WASHED AWAY.
RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE RAINBANDS WERE IN THE 50 TO 75 MM RANGE.
THE HIGHEST OFFICIAL RAINFALL TOTAL BY 18 UTC WAS 65.2 MM AT
YARMOUTH AIRPORT.
RAINBANDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALLS FROM BILL MOVED IN HALIFAX
REGIONAL MUNICIPALITY BEFORE NOON CAUSING SOME CATCH BASINS TO
OVERFILL AND STREETS TO FLOOD. LOCALIZED PROPERTY FLOODING WAS
ALSO REPORTED DUE TO THE RAPID RAINFALL RATES. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE HRM WERE NEAR 55 MILLIMETRES.
RAIN FROM BILL MOVED INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA
AND CAPE BRETON THIS AFTERNOON AND COMPLETE TOTALS ARE NOT YET
AVAILABLE. RAINFALL RATES OF 15 TO 25 MILLIMETRES PER HOUR
CAN BE EXPECTED MAKING DRIVING CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AND STANDING WATER ON ROADWAYS. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE STREET AND ROAD FLOODING.. UNDERMINE
SOME ROAD SURFACES.. WASHOUTS AND FLOODED BASEMENTS.
THE OUTER EDGES OF THE RAIN FROM BILL REACHED PRINCE EDWARD
ISLAND AND NORTHERN NOVA SCOTIA WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS ISLAND
WERE LOWER THAN AREAS OF NOVA SCOTIA. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE AVAILABLE AT 00 UTC.
ONE OUTER RAINBAND FROM HURRICANE BILL ALSO STALLED ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK FOR A TIME THIS MORNING. HIGH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WERE VERY LOCALIZED WITH MONCTON RECEIVING 30 MILLIMETRES
AND ST STEPHEN REPORTING 35 MILLIMETRES. MEANWHILE SAINT JOHN
RECEIVED ONLY 6 MILLIMETRES AS THE RAINBAND WAS TO THEIR NORTH
AND THE RAIN FROM BILL NEVER MADE IT ACROSS THE BAY OF FUNDY.
HEAVY RAINFALLS WILL REACH MUCH OF NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT WHERE
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS COULD STILL EXCEED 100 MM.

WINDS.. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WERE REPORTED IN MANY AREAS
OF NOVA SCOTIA. IN SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA.. YARMOUTH AIRPORT AND
LUNENBURG REPORTED 43 KNOTS (80 KM/H).. AND BACCARO POINT 46 KNOTS
(85 KM/H). ACROSS THE HALIFAX REGIONAL MUNICIPALITY THE HIGHEST
RECORDED WIND WAS 47 KNOTS (87 KM/H). THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE
JUST MOVED INTO EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA.. PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND
CAPE BRETON. AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.. NOVA SCOTIA POWER
REPORTED 10 OF THOUSANDS OF CUSTOMERS WITHOUT POWER. THERE WERE
REPORTS OF TREES DOWN IN SOME AREAS WHILE FLIGHTS AND FERRY
SERVICES WERE CANCELED IN MOST REGIONS FOR SOME TIME.
FOR SOUTHEASTERN REGIONS OF THE NEWFOUNDLAND.. FROM EAST OF HARBOUR
BRETON TO BONAVISTA WITH POTENTIAL WIND SPEEDS OF 70 KM/H WITH
GUSTS TO 100 AND LOCAL WIND GUSTS TO 120 KM/H OVER EXPOSED
COASTAL AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE STORM TRACK. ELSEWHERE OVER THE
ISLAND EXCEPT THE NORTHERN PENINSULA THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS
TO 90 KM/H.

WAVES AND STORM SURGE.. LARGE WAVES REPORTED OVER ALL SECTIONS
OF COASTAL NOVA SCOTIA. THE BUOY OUTSIDE OF HALIFAX HARBOUR REPORTED
A SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT OF 9.0 METRES AT 18 UTC WITH A MAXIMUM
WAVE HEIGHT OF 14.9 METRES. THESE LARGE WAVES INUNDATED SOME
ROADWAYS AND FORCED LOCAL POLICE SERVICES TO CLOSE MANY COASTAL
ROADS. THERE WERE REPORTS THAT A ROAD ALONG BEDFORD BASIN IN
HALIFAX WAS ALSO UNDERWATER. THE WAVES ARE NOW SUBSIDING FROM
HALIFAX WESTWARD BUT THE EASTERN SHORE AND CAPE BRETON CAN
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS EVENING.
THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE (0.5 TO 1.0 METRES) AND HEAVY
SURF (SIGNIFICANT WAVES RANGING FROM 5 TO 10 METRES) IS ALSO
EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND. THESE CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO
SHORELINE EROSION AND DAMAGE TO WHARVES AND COASTAL STRUCTURES AS
WELL AS GENERATING DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT LOCAL BEACHES. IT IS
WORTHY TO NOTE THAT SPRING TIDES ARE OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND..
INCREASING THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING.
A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA AROUND
PLACENTIA BAY AND THE BURIN PENINSULA IN NEWFOUNDLAND AS THE
LARGE WAVES COMBINE WITH STORM SURGE FROM BILL TO RAISE
WATER LEVELS 50 TO POSSIBLY 90 CENTIMETRES ABOVE HIGH TIDE
NEAR MIDNIGHT.

SPECTATORS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO KEEP A SAFE DISTANCE
FROM THE SHORELINE DUE TO THE RAPID APPROACH OF LARGE WAVES.

PUBLIC AND MARINE INTERESTS ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR FORECASTS
AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THEIR REGION BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA.

END/NICKERSON/FOGARTY

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

000
WTNT33 KNHC 232036
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 PM AST SUN AUG 23 2009

...BILL NEAR EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA...HEADED FOR NEWFOUNDLAND...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT IN EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA
FROM EAST OF HUBBARDS TO LISMORE...AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FROM ECUM SECUM IN HALIFAX COUNTY TO POINT ACONI IN CAPE
BRETON COUNTY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
FROM VICTORIA IN QUEEN COUNTY NORTHWARD TO LOWER DARNLEY IN PRINCE
COUNTY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONES COVE TO BONAVISTA. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST AND SOUTH COAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND FROM PARSONS POND AROUND TO STONES COVE...AND ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM BONAVISTA TO HARBOUR DEEP.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 45.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.8 WEST OR ABOUT 385 MILES...
620 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 35 MPH...56 KM/HR...AND A
FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF BILL PASS NEAR OR OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND BILL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290
MILES...465 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE TRACK OF BILL ACROSS
NEWFOUNDLAND. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE EASTERN END OF NOVA SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND.

LARGE AND DANGEROUS SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL WILL BE
IMPACTING THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF CANADA TONIGHT.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...45.1N 60.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 35 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

000
WTNT43 KNHC 232036
TCDAT3
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 PM AST SUN AUG 23 2009

BILL IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING WHILE LOSING SOME OF ITS TROPICAL
APPEARANCE. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
DETERIORATING...WITH THE CLOUD PATTERN BECOMING MORE ASYMMETRIC AND
THE DEEPEST CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE.
DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 3.5 AND 4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY
...AND THE ASSUMPTION OF A CONTINUED SLOW WEAKENING AS BILL
TRAVERSES COOLER WATERS...YIELD AN INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 65
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY WEAKENING...
AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE WITHIN 24
HOURS...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. BY 96 HOURS
BILL IS PREDICTED TO HAVE MERGED WITH A LARGER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
NEAR THE BRITISH ISLES.

BILL HAS CONTINUED TO ACCELERATE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
IS NOW 050/030. SOME FURTHER ACCELERATION IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. BEYOND 36 HOURS...SOME SLOWING OF THE
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT OF BILL
INTERACTS WITH THE LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTHEAST
ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REPRESENTS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

LARGE AND DANGEROUS SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH BILL WILL CONTINUE
IMPACTING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...
WHILE SWELLS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/2100Z 45.1N 60.8W 65 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 47.7N 54.5W 60 KT
24HR VT 24/1800Z 50.0N 43.8W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 25/0600Z 51.5N 32.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 25/1800Z 52.5N 21.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 26/1800Z 57.0N 5.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

Hurricane Bill Pounds Nova Scotia #2






WOCN31 CWHX 231800
Hurricane Bill information statement issued by the canadian
Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 3.00 PM ADT Sunday
23 August 2009.

The next statement will be issued by 9.00 PM ADT with an intermediate
bulletin scheduled for 6.00 PM.

...Hurricane Bill affecting Nova Scotia with heavy rains and
Strong winds..Centre expected to graze Eastern Nova Scotia...

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 3.00 PM ADT... Hurricane Bill was located near latitude 44.4 N
And longitude 62.6 W... About 40 nautical miles or 75 km
East southeast of Halifax. Maximum sustained winds are
Estimated at 65 knots... 120 km/h... And central pressure at 970
MB. Bill is moving northeast at 30 knots... 56 km/h.

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
ADT MB kts kmh
Aug 23 3.00 PM 44.4N 62.6W 970 65 120
Aug 23 9.00 PM 46.2N 59.2W 980 65 120 transitioning
Aug 24 3.00 AM 47.7N 54.9W 985 55 102 transitioning
Aug 24 9.00 AM 49.0N 49.6W 990 50 93 post-tropical
Aug 24 3.00 PM 49.9N 44.0W 990 50 93 post-tropical
Aug 24 9.00 PM 50.8N 38.4W 990 50 93 post-tropical
Aug 25 3.00 AM 51.7N 32.8W 990 50 93 post-tropical

3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary

For the Maritimes:
Tropical storm warnings are in effect for Nova Scotia from Western
Halifax county to Cape Breton including Antigonish County. Wind
speeds of 65 km/h with gusts to 90 can be expected over these areas.

A hurricane watch remains in effect for Guysborough County..Richmond
County and Cape Breton county. Wind speeds of 120 km/h with gusts to
140 are possible..Repeat..Possible..For these areas as the centre of
Bill passes very close by later this afternoon and evening.

Tropical storm watches are in effect for Northern Nova Scotia east
Of Malagash to Antigonish County as well as Central Nova Scotia.
A tropical storm watch also remains in effect for Eastern Prince
Edward Island with potential windspeeds of 65 km/h with gusts to 90.

For Newfoundland:
Tropical storm watches remain in effect for all of Newfoundland
except the Northern Peninsula. Tropical storm warnings are in effect
For southeastern regions of the island..From east of harbour Breton
to Bonavista with potential wind speeds of 70 km/h with gusts to 100
and local wind gusts to 120 km/h over exposed coastal areas to the
south of the storm track.

Weather impacts:

Rainfall...
A swath of very heavy rain will fall to the north and along the storm
Track. Rainfall amounts of 50 to 100 mm over Nova Scotia..Pei and
Southern Newfoundland are expected. Local amounts exceeding 100 mm
Are possible. As a result.. Local flooding can be expected in
flood-prone areas. Heavy downpours will reduce visibilities and lead
to standing water presenting a hazard to motorists. Heavy rainfall
Has the potential to cause street flooding..Undermining of some road
Surfaces..Washouts and flooded basements. Some minor rainfall
Flooding has been reported so far..More details in the next inter-
mediate bulletin at 6 PM local time.

Winds...
The presence of strong east to northeasterly winds and rain-laden
tree foliage could lead to the breaking of some tree branches which
would down some utility lines. Please stay tuned in the event that
the storm behavior changes where the wind threat could also change.
Winds have already caused tree damage and lead to power outages for
thousands of residents in Southern Nova Scotia.

Coastal surf and surge...
A combination of storm surge (0.5 to 1.0 metres) and heavy
Surf (significant waves ranging from 5 to 10 metres) occurring along
the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia (Halifax and east) is also
Expected in Southern Newfoundland. These conditions may lead to
shoreline erosion and damage to wharves and coastal structures as
well as generating dangerous rip currents at local beaches. It is
Worthy to note that spring tides are occurring this weekend..
Increasing the threat of coastal flooding. Reports of coastal
flooding and inundation have been reported. Please see the
intermediate bulletin under the same header that was issued at 12
Noon local time..15 zulu for a summary of observations and impacts
Up to that time. Additional details to appear in the 6.00 PM
intermediate.

Attention: spectators are strongly advised to keep a safe distance
from the shoreline due to the rapid approach of large waves.

4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary

Hurricane force wind warnings are in effect near and south of
The hurricane track with wind speeds near 65 knots. Storm warnings
are in effect for areas just north of the track. Large waves
generated by Bill over offshore waters are ranging from 10 to 14
metres south of the track. Further details are available in
The local sea state forecasts. The envelope of high seas carried
With hurricane Bill will strike coastal regions of Newfoundland
facing the brunt of Bill. A storm surge "watch" is in effect for the
southeasternmost portions of Newfoundland as the centre of Bill is
expected to track across land there. Waves of 5 to 8 meters have
Been reported coming ashore along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia
so far.

5. Technical discussion for meteorologists

A. Analysis

Bill is being monitored on Nova Scotia radar with the center about
75 km offshore. Heavy arcing bands of rain are being observed moving
across Nova Scotia with rainfall rates up to 20 mm/hr. Surface
weather observations from Nova Scotia have reported upwards of 60 mm
of rainfall so far. A heavy burst of convection northeast of the
storm centre with very heavy rain is seen on satellite and radar
heading toward eastern mainland Nova Scotia.

An earlier ssmis overpass indicated the remnant eyewall/Max winds
were situated about 50 km from the centre. Wind radii have been
fine-tuned using the multiplatform satellite product from cira.
A more complete summary of observations will appear in a 6 PM
Bulletin..21 zulu time.

B. Prognostic

No change in basic track and intensity. The storm centre is now over
cooler water so will diminish in intensity. Hurricane force winds
will remain well offshore south of the track. We have observed
Strong winds north of the track and continue to expect this to be
The case as the large circulation of Bill moves northeast.

As noted in previous messages by our office..Extra tropical
transition is much delayed due to the pre-existing tropical airmass
that has been present over Eastern Canada for much of mid August.
This amounts to Bill retaining tropical characteristics longer than
usual. Some traits of extratropical transition are apparent with the
Sheared cloud mass..But there are no fronts associated with this
storm.

C. Public weather
The maximum rainfall is expected over the length of Nova Scotia
And into Central Newfoundland relatively close to the track given
The persisting tropical character of this storm.

D. Marine weather
Radii trimmed-back from previous package in the short term..But
remain similar as previous package as the storm crosses the
Newfoundland region.

Predicted wind radii (NM)
Time gales storms hurricane
Ne se sw nw ne se sw nw ne se sw nw
23/18Z 200 280 190 120 120 180 0 0 55 55 0 0
24/00Z 250 290 190 130 130 170 0 0 45 60 0 0
24/06Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 50 40 0 0 0 0
24/12Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 0 0 0 0
24/18Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 0 0 0 0
25/00Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 0 0 0 0
25/06Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 0 0 0 0

End fogarty/nickerson




WOCN31 CWHX 231800
HURRICANE BILL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT SUNDAY
23 AUGUST 2009.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT WITH AN INTERMEDIATE
BULLETIN SCHEDULED FOR 6.00 PM.

...HURRICANE BILL AFFECTING NOVA SCOTIA WITH HEAVY RAINS AND
STRONG WINDS..CENTRE EXPECTED TO GRAZE EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.4 N
AND LONGITUDE 62.6 W... ABOUT 40 NAUTICAL MILES OR 75 KM
EAST SOUTHEAST OF HALIFAX. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS... 120 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 970
MB. BILL IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 KNOTS... 56 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
AUG 23 3.00 PM 44.4N 62.6W 970 65 120
AUG 23 9.00 PM 46.2N 59.2W 980 65 120 TRANSITIONING
AUG 24 3.00 AM 47.7N 54.9W 985 55 102 TRANSITIONING
AUG 24 9.00 AM 49.0N 49.6W 990 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 24 3.00 PM 49.9N 44.0W 990 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 24 9.00 PM 50.8N 38.4W 990 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 25 3.00 AM 51.7N 32.8W 990 50 93 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

FOR THE MARITIMES:
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR NOVA SCOTIA FROM WESTERN
HALIFAX COUNTY TO CAPE BRETON INCLUDING ANTIGONISH COUNTY. WIND
SPEEDS OF 65 KM/H WITH GUSTS TO 90 CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THESE AREAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUYSBOROUGH COUNTY..RICHMOND
COUNTY AND CAPE BRETON COUNTY. WIND SPEEDS OF 120 KM/H WITH GUSTS TO
140 ARE POSSIBLE..REPEAT..POSSIBLE..FOR THESE AREAS AS THE CENTRE OF
BILL PASSES VERY CLOSE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NOVA SCOTIA EAST
OF MALAGASH TO ANTIGONISH COUNTY AS WELL AS CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN PRINCE
EDWARD ISLAND WITH POTENTIAL WINDSPEEDS OF 65 KM/H WITH GUSTS TO 90.

FOR NEWFOUNDLAND:
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NEWFOUNDLAND
EXCEPT THE NORTHERN PENINSULA. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN REGIONS OF THE ISLAND..FROM EAST OF HARBOUR BRETON
TO BONAVISTA WITH POTENTIAL WIND SPEEDS OF 70 KM/H WITH GUSTS TO 100
AND LOCAL WIND GUSTS TO 120 KM/H OVER EXPOSED COASTAL AREAS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE STORM TRACK.

WEATHER IMPACTS:

RAINFALL...
A SWATH OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL TO THE NORTH AND ALONG THE STORM
TRACK. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 50 TO 100 MM OVER NOVA SCOTIA..PEI AND
SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND ARE EXPECTED. LOCAL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 100 MM
ARE POSSIBLE. AS A RESULT.. LOCAL FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED IN
FLOOD-PRONE AREAS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND LEAD
TO STANDING WATER PRESENTING A HAZARD TO MOTORISTS. HEAVY RAINFALL
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE STREET FLOODING..UNDERMINING OF SOME ROAD
SURFACES..WASHOUTS AND FLOODED BASEMENTS. SOME MINOR RAINFALL
FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED SO FAR..MORE DETAILS IN THE NEXT INTER-
MEDIATE BULLETIN AT 6 PM LOCAL TIME.

WINDS...
THE PRESENCE OF STRONG EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND RAIN-LADEN
TREE FOLIAGE COULD LEAD TO THE BREAKING OF SOME TREE BRANCHES WHICH
WOULD DOWN SOME UTILITY LINES. PLEASE STAY TUNED IN THE EVENT THAT
THE STORM BEHAVIOR CHANGES WHERE THE WIND THREAT COULD ALSO CHANGE.
WINDS HAVE ALREADY CAUSED TREE DAMAGE AND LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES FOR
THOUSANDS OF RESIDENTS IN SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA.

COASTAL SURF AND SURGE...
A COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE (0.5 TO 1.0 METRES) AND HEAVY
SURF (SIGNIFICANT WAVES RANGING FROM 5 TO 10 METRES) OCCURRING ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA (HALIFAX AND EAST) IS ALSO
EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND. THESE CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO
SHORELINE EROSION AND DAMAGE TO WHARVES AND COASTAL STRUCTURES AS
WELL AS GENERATING DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT LOCAL BEACHES. IT IS
WORTHY TO NOTE THAT SPRING TIDES ARE OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND..
INCREASING THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING. REPORTS OF COASTAL
FLOODING AND INUNDATION HAVE BEEN REPORTED. PLEASE SEE THE
INTERMEDIATE BULLETIN UNDER THE SAME HEADER THAT WAS ISSUED AT 12
NOON LOCAL TIME..15 ZULU FOR A SUMMARY OF OBSERVATIONS AND IMPACTS
UP TO THAT TIME. ADDITIONAL DETAILS TO APPEAR IN THE 6.00 PM
INTERMEDIATE.

ATTENTION: SPECTATORS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO KEEP A SAFE DISTANCE
FROM THE SHORELINE DUE TO THE RAPID APPROACH OF LARGE WAVES.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE HURRICANE TRACK WITH WIND SPEEDS NEAR 65 KNOTS. STORM WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT FOR AREAS JUST NORTH OF THE TRACK. LARGE WAVES
GENERATED BY BILL OVER OFFSHORE WATERS ARE RANGING FROM 10 TO 14
METRES SOUTH OF THE TRACK. FURTHER DETAILS ARE AVAILABLE IN
THE LOCAL SEA STATE FORECASTS. THE ENVELOPE OF HIGH SEAS CARRIED
WITH HURRICANE BILL WILL STRIKE COASTAL REGIONS OF NEWFOUNDLAND
FACING THE BRUNT OF BILL. A STORM SURGE "WATCH" IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF NEWFOUNDLAND AS THE CENTRE OF BILL IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS LAND THERE. WAVES OF 5 TO 8 METERS HAVE
BEEN REPORTED COMING ASHORE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA
SO FAR.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS

BILL IS BEING MONITORED ON NOVA SCOTIA RADAR WITH THE CENTER ABOUT
75 KM OFFSHORE. HEAVY ARCING BANDS OF RAIN ARE BEING OBSERVED MOVING
ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA WITH RAINFALL RATES UP TO 20 MM/HR. SURFACE
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS FROM NOVA SCOTIA HAVE REPORTED UPWARDS OF 60 MM
OF RAINFALL SO FAR. A HEAVY BURST OF CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF THE
STORM CENTRE WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN IS SEEN ON SATELLITE AND RADAR
HEADING TOWARD EASTERN MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA.

AN EARLIER SSMIS OVERPASS INDICATED THE REMNANT EYEWALL/MAX WINDS
WERE SITUATED ABOUT 50 KM FROM THE CENTRE. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
FINE-TUNED USING THE MULTIPLATFORM SATELLITE PRODUCT FROM CIRA.
A MORE COMPLETE SUMMARY OF OBSERVATIONS WILL APPEAR IN A 6 PM
BULLETIN..21 ZULU TIME.

B. PROGNOSTIC

NO CHANGE IN BASIC TRACK AND INTENSITY. THE STORM CENTRE IS NOW OVER
COOLER WATER SO WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE SOUTH OF THE TRACK. WE HAVE OBSERVED
STRONG WINDS NORTH OF THE TRACK AND CONTINUE TO EXPECT THIS TO BE
THE CASE AS THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF BILL MOVES NORTHEAST.

AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS MESSAGES BY OUR OFFICE..EXTRA TROPICAL
TRANSITION IS MUCH DELAYED DUE TO THE PRE-EXISTING TROPICAL AIRMASS
THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER EASTERN CANADA FOR MUCH OF MID AUGUST.
THIS AMOUNTS TO BILL RETAINING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LONGER THAN
USUAL. SOME TRAITS OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION ARE APPARENT WITH THE
SHEARED CLOUD MASS..BUT THERE ARE NO FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
STORM.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
THE MAXIMUM RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE LENGTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
AND INTO CENTRAL NEWFOUNDLAND RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE TRACK GIVEN
THE PERSISTING TROPICAL CHARACTER OF THIS STORM.

D. MARINE WEATHER
RADII TRIMMED-BACK FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE IN THE SHORT TERM..BUT
REMAIN SIMILAR AS PREVIOUS PACKAGE AS THE STORM CROSSES THE
NEWFOUNDLAND REGION.

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
23/18Z 200 280 190 120 120 180 0 0 55 55 0 0
24/00Z 250 290 190 130 130 170 0 0 45 60 0 0
24/06Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 50 40 0 0 0 0
24/12Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 0 0 0 0
24/18Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 0 0 0 0
25/00Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 0 0 0 0
25/06Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 0 0 0 0

END FOGARTY/NICKERSON

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

000
WTNT33 KNHC 231802
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 33A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
200 PM AST SUN AUG 23 2009

...BILL MOVING NEAR NOVA SCOTIA...

AT 2 PM AST...1800 UTC...ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN NOVA SCOTIA FROM CHARLESVILLE IN
SHELBURNE COUNTY TO HUBBARDS IN HALIFAX COUNTY...AND DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF MALAGASH IN CUMBERLAND COUNTY
TO TIDNISH IN CUMBERLAND COUNTY...AND DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FROM FORT LAWRENCE IN CUMBERLAND COUNTY TO
CHARLESVILLE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT IN EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA
FROM EAST OF HUBBARDS TO LISMORE...AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FROM ECUM SECUM IN HALIFAX COUNTY TO POINT ACONIIN IN CAPE
BRETON COUNTY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONE'S COVE TO BONAVISTA. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST AND SOUTH COAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND FROM PARSONS POND AROUND TO STONE'S COVE...AND ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM BONAVISTA TO HARBOUR DEEP.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND
WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 44.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES...
95 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 35 MPH...56 KM/HR...AND A
FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BILL WILL PASS NEAR OR JUST
OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY...AND NEAR OR OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND BILL IS LIKELY TO LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290
MILES...465 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE TRACK OF BILL ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND NEWFOUNDLAND.

LARGE AND DANGEROUS SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL WILL BE
IMPACTING THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF CANADA TODAY. SWELLS ALONG THE
U.S. EAST COAST SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...44.4N 62.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 35 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB


THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Hurricane Bill Pounds Nova Scotia #1


















000
WTNT33 KNHC 231446
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 23 2009

...BILL MOVING NEAR NOVA SCOTIA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA FROM CHARLESVILLE TO POINT ACONI. A HURRICANE WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM
TO POINT ACONI.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA FROM NORTH OF POINT ACONI WESTWARD TO TIDNISH...FOR THE
WESTERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO CHARLESVILLE...
AND FOR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND FROM VICTORIA IN QUEEN COUNTY
NORTHWARD TO LOWER DARNLEY IN PRINCE COUNTY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONE'S COVE TO BONAVISTA. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST AND SOUTH COAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND FROM PARSONS POND AROUND TO STONE'S COVE...AND ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM BONAVISTA TO HARBOUR DEEP.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND
WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 43.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...
150 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 33 MPH...54 KM/HR...AND A
FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BILL WILL PASS NEAR OR JUST
OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY...AND NEAR OR OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND BILL IS LIKELY TO LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290
MILES...465 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE TRACK OF BILL ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND NEWFOUNDLAND.

LARGE AND DANGEROUS SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL WILL BE
IMPACTING THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF CANADA TODAY. SWELLS ALONG THE
U.S. EAST COAST SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...43.3N 64.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 33 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

000
WTNT43 KNHC 231448
TCDAT3
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 23 2009

AFTER THE LAST AIR FORCE MISSION INTO BILL....JUST BEFORE 1200
UTC...THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE HURRICANE HAS BEGUN TO LOOK A LITTLE
LESS TROPICAL. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF
105 KT OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT AROUND 1100 UTC. TYPICALLY THIS
WOULD SUPPORT A HIGHER INTENSITY OF GREATER THAN 75 KT.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE CYCLONE IS TRAVERSING COOLER WATERS...IT IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT FOR IT TO TRANSPORT STRONG WINDS TO
THE SURFACE. GIVEN THAT...ALONG WITH THE DETERIORATION OF THE
CLOUD PATTERN...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 75 KT. BILL IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM WITHIN A DAY OR SO AND
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MERGE WITH A BROADER
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR THE BRITISH ISLES IN 3-4 DAYS.

CURRENT MOTION IS AROUND 045/29. BILL SHOULD CONTINUE ACCELERATING
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS IT BECOMES WELL EMBEDDED IN THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS
LIKELY LATER IN THE PERIOD AS THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT OF BILL
INTERACTS WITH THE LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTHEAST
ATLANTIC. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE.

LARGE AND DANGEROUS SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH BILL WILL BE IMPACTING
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SWELLS ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD BE DIMINISHING TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/1500Z 43.3N 64.0W 75 KT
12HR VT 24/0000Z 46.3N 59.1W 65 KT
24HR VT 24/1200Z 49.0N 49.7W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 25/0000Z 50.8N 37.4W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 25/1200Z 52.5N 26.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 26/1200Z 57.0N 8.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 27/1200Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER LOW

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Blogging About Hurricane Bill #20







WOCN31 CWHX 231200
Hurricane Bill information statement issued by the canadian
Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 9.00 AM ADT Sunday
23 August 2009.

The next statement will be issued by 3.00 PM ADT

...Hurricane Bill storm centre just south of Nova Scotia now
Bringing rain and wind to the province..Conditions deteriorating..

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 9.00 AM ADT... Hurricane Bill was located near latitude 42.6 N
And longitude 65.3 W... About 80 nautical miles or 150 km
South southeast of Yarmouth. Maximum sustained winds are
Estimated at 70 knots... 130 km/h... And central pressure at 960
MB. Bill is moving northeast at 26 knots... 48 km/h.

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
ADT MB kts kmh
Aug 23 9.00 AM 42.6N 65.3W 960 70 130
Aug 23 3.00 PM 44.4N 62.6W 970 65 120
Aug 23 9.00 PM 46.2N 59.2W 980 65 120
Aug 24 3.00 AM 47.7N 54.9W 985 55 102
Aug 24 9.00 AM 49.0N 49.6W 990 50 93
Aug 24 3.00 PM 49.9N 44.0W 990 50 93 post-tropical
Aug 24 9.00 PM 50.8N 38.4W 990 50 93 post-tropical

3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary

For the Maritimes:
Tropical storm warnings are in effect for Atlantic coastal Nova
Scotia with wind speeds of 65 km/h with gusts to 90.

Hurricane watches are continued for eastern mainland Nova Scotia
And Southern Cape Breton with potential wind speeds of 120 km/h
With gusts to 140.

Tropical storm watches remain in effect for the remainder of Nova
Scotia and Eastern Prince Edward Island with potential wind
Speeds of 65 km/h with gusts to 90.

For Newfoundland:
Tropical storm watches remain in effect for all of Newfoundland
except the Northern Peninsula. Previous tropical storm watches
Have been upgraded to tropical storm warnings for southeastern
Regions of the island..From east of harbour Breton to Bonavista
With potential wind speeds of 70 km/h with gusts to 100 and local
wind gusts to 120 km/h over exposed coastal areas to the south of
The track storm track.

Weather impacts:

Rainfall...
A swath of very heavy rain will fall to the north and along the storm
Track. Rainfall amounts of 75 to 100 mm over Nova Scotia..Pei and
Southern Newfoundland are expected where local amounts up to 150 mm
Are possible. As a result.. Local flooding can be expected in
flood-prone areas. Heavy downpours will reduce visibilities and lead
to standing water presenting a hazard to motorists. Heavy rainfall
Has the potential to cause street flooding..Undermining of some road
Surfaces..Washouts and flooded basements.

Winds...
The presence of strong east to northeasterly winds and
Rain-laden tree foliage could lead to the breaking of some tree
branches which would down some utility lines. Please stay tuned
In the event that the storm behavior changes where the wind
Threat could also change.

Coastal surf and surge...
A combination of storm surge (0.5 to 1.0 metres) and heavy
Surf (large waves ranging from 5 to 10 metres) along the Atlantic
coast of Nova Scotia and Southern Newfoundland is expected. These
conditions may lead to shoreline erosion and damage to wharves and
coastal structures as well as generating dangerous rip currents
At local beaches. It is worthy to note that spring tides are
Occurring this weekend..Increasing the threat of coastal flooding.

Attention: spectators are strongly advised to keep a safe distance
from the shoreline due to the rapid approach of large waves.

Further details are available in the public forecast bulletins.

4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary

Hurricane force wind warnings are in effect near and south of
The hurricane track with wind speeds in the range of 65 to 75 knots.
Storm warnings are in effect for areas just north of the track.
Large waves generated by Bill over offshore waters will range from
10 to 14 metres south of the track. Further details are available in
the local sea state forecasts. The envelope of high seas carried
With hurricane Bill will strike coastal regions of Newfoundland
facing the brunt of Bill. A storm surge "watch" will soon be in
effect for the southeasternmost portions of Newfoundland as the
centre of Bill is expected to track across land there.

5. Technical discussion for meteorologists

A. Analysis
Satellite imagery is indicating that Bill is not far south of Western
Nova Scotia and moving quickly northeast. There is an apparent tilt
in the storm structure since the cold cloud-top circulation is moving
ene while the low-level cloud lines indicate the surface circulation
is moving more to the ne as in the track forecast. The eye and
associated cloud is remarkably well organized for a tropical cyclone
this far north. There is no apparent decrease in convective vigour
At this time. Rain bands on radar have been moving across Western
Nova Scotia with up to 15 mm per hour rates observed so far.

Data from Georges Bank buoy indicates the centre of Bill passed just
south of the site while the storm is headed straight for the Lahave
Bank buoy where winds have increased to 62 knots and waves built to
8 metres. The winds have yet to change direction so we do not know
yet where the centre of Bill will be with respect to the buoy. This
Is a critical observation point..The next observation from there
should be at 1215 zulu time.

High-res quikscat has come in just before issue time and shows that
storm-force winds are not far offshore of Nova Scotia.

B. Prognostic

No change in basic track and intensity. The storm centre is now over
cooler water so should begin to diminish in intensity. Hurricane
force winds will remain well offshore south of the track. We still
expect strong winds north of the track along the coast of nova
Scotia due to the large circulation. Gale-force winds have reached
bacarro pt as of 8 AM local time.

As noted in previous messages by our office..Extra tropical
transition to be delayed until tonight since the hurricane will
remain embedded in the ambient tropical airmass that has been
Present over Eastern Canada for much of mid August. This amounts to
Bill retaining tropical characteristics longer than usual.

C. Public weather
The maximum rainfall is expected over the length of Nova Scotia
relatively close to the track given the remaining tropical character
of this storm. Given that the deepest convection of the storm core is
Shearing-off to the ene..Rainfall amounts over mainland Nova Scotia
may not be quite as high as earlier thought..But much too early to
change thinking at this time.

D. Marine weather

Predicted wind radii (NM)
Time gales storms hurricane
Ne se sw nw ne se sw nw ne se sw nw
23/06Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 75 45 25 35
23/12Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 70 50 30 40
23/18Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 55 55 35 35
24/00Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 45 60 45 0
24/06Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 0 0 0 0
24/12Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 0 0 0 0
24/18Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 0 0 0 0

End fogarty/campbell/nickerson/mercer




WOCN31 CWHX 231200
HURRICANE BILL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT SUNDAY
23 AUGUST 2009.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT

...HURRICANE BILL STORM CENTRE JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA NOW
BRINGING RAIN AND WIND TO THE PROVINCE..CONDITIONS DETERIORATING..

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 AM ADT... HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.6 N
AND LONGITUDE 65.3 W... ABOUT 80 NAUTICAL MILES OR 150 KM
SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF YARMOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS... 130 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 960
MB. BILL IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 26 KNOTS... 48 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
AUG 23 9.00 AM 42.6N 65.3W 960 70 130
AUG 23 3.00 PM 44.4N 62.6W 970 65 120
AUG 23 9.00 PM 46.2N 59.2W 980 65 120
AUG 24 3.00 AM 47.7N 54.9W 985 55 102
AUG 24 9.00 AM 49.0N 49.6W 990 50 93
AUG 24 3.00 PM 49.9N 44.0W 990 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 24 9.00 PM 50.8N 38.4W 990 50 93 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

FOR THE MARITIMES:
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL NOVA
SCOTIA WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 65 KM/H WITH GUSTS TO 90.

HURRICANE WATCHES ARE CONTINUED FOR EASTERN MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA
AND SOUTHERN CAPE BRETON WITH POTENTIAL WIND SPEEDS OF 120 KM/H
WITH GUSTS TO 140.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND EASTERN PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND WITH POTENTIAL WIND
SPEEDS OF 65 KM/H WITH GUSTS TO 90.

FOR NEWFOUNDLAND:
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NEWFOUNDLAND
EXCEPT THE NORTHERN PENINSULA. PREVIOUS TROPICAL STORM WATCHES
HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR SOUTHEASTERN
REGIONS OF THE ISLAND..FROM EAST OF HARBOUR BRETON TO BONAVISTA
WITH POTENTIAL WIND SPEEDS OF 70 KM/H WITH GUSTS TO 100 AND LOCAL
WIND GUSTS TO 120 KM/H OVER EXPOSED COASTAL AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE TRACK STORM TRACK.

WEATHER IMPACTS:

RAINFALL...
A SWATH OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL TO THE NORTH AND ALONG THE STORM
TRACK. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 75 TO 100 MM OVER NOVA SCOTIA..PEI AND
SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND ARE EXPECTED WHERE LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 150 MM
ARE POSSIBLE. AS A RESULT.. LOCAL FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED IN
FLOOD-PRONE AREAS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND LEAD
TO STANDING WATER PRESENTING A HAZARD TO MOTORISTS. HEAVY RAINFALL
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE STREET FLOODING..UNDERMINING OF SOME ROAD
SURFACES..WASHOUTS AND FLOODED BASEMENTS.

WINDS...
THE PRESENCE OF STRONG EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
RAIN-LADEN TREE FOLIAGE COULD LEAD TO THE BREAKING OF SOME TREE
BRANCHES WHICH WOULD DOWN SOME UTILITY LINES. PLEASE STAY TUNED
IN THE EVENT THAT THE STORM BEHAVIOR CHANGES WHERE THE WIND
THREAT COULD ALSO CHANGE.

COASTAL SURF AND SURGE...
A COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE (0.5 TO 1.0 METRES) AND HEAVY
SURF (LARGE WAVES RANGING FROM 5 TO 10 METRES) ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND IS EXPECTED. THESE
CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO SHORELINE EROSION AND DAMAGE TO WHARVES AND
COASTAL STRUCTURES AS WELL AS GENERATING DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
AT LOCAL BEACHES. IT IS WORTHY TO NOTE THAT SPRING TIDES ARE
OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND..INCREASING THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING.

ATTENTION: SPECTATORS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO KEEP A SAFE DISTANCE
FROM THE SHORELINE DUE TO THE RAPID APPROACH OF LARGE WAVES.

FURTHER DETAILS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE PUBLIC FORECAST BULLETINS.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE HURRICANE TRACK WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE RANGE OF 65 TO 75 KNOTS.
STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR AREAS JUST NORTH OF THE TRACK.
LARGE WAVES GENERATED BY BILL OVER OFFSHORE WATERS WILL RANGE FROM
10 TO 14 METRES SOUTH OF THE TRACK. FURTHER DETAILS ARE AVAILABLE IN
THE LOCAL SEA STATE FORECASTS. THE ENVELOPE OF HIGH SEAS CARRIED
WITH HURRICANE BILL WILL STRIKE COASTAL REGIONS OF NEWFOUNDLAND
FACING THE BRUNT OF BILL. A STORM SURGE "WATCH" WILL SOON BE IN
EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF NEWFOUNDLAND AS THE
CENTRE OF BILL IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS LAND THERE.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS INDICATING THAT BILL IS NOT FAR SOUTH OF WESTERN
NOVA SCOTIA AND MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEAST. THERE IS AN APPARENT TILT
IN THE STORM STRUCTURE SINCE THE COLD CLOUD-TOP CIRCULATION IS MOVING
ENE WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES INDICATE THE SURFACE CIRCULATION
IS MOVING MORE TO THE NE AS IN THE TRACK FORECAST. THE EYE AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUD IS REMARKABLY WELL ORGANIZED FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE
THIS FAR NORTH. THERE IS NO APPARENT DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE VIGOUR
AT THIS TIME. RAIN BANDS ON RADAR HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
NOVA SCOTIA WITH UP TO 15 MM PER HOUR RATES OBSERVED SO FAR.

DATA FROM GEORGES BANK BUOY INDICATES THE CENTRE OF BILL PASSED JUST
SOUTH OF THE SITE WHILE THE STORM IS HEADED STRAIGHT FOR THE LAHAVE
BANK BUOY WHERE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 62 KNOTS AND WAVES BUILT TO
8 METRES. THE WINDS HAVE YET TO CHANGE DIRECTION SO WE DO NOT KNOW
YET WHERE THE CENTRE OF BILL WILL BE WITH RESPECT TO THE BUOY. THIS
IS A CRITICAL OBSERVATION POINT..THE NEXT OBSERVATION FROM THERE
SHOULD BE AT 1215 ZULU TIME.

HIGH-RES QUIKSCAT HAS COME IN JUST BEFORE ISSUE TIME AND SHOWS THAT
STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE NOT FAR OFFSHORE OF NOVA SCOTIA.

B. PROGNOSTIC

NO CHANGE IN BASIC TRACK AND INTENSITY. THE STORM CENTRE IS NOW OVER
COOLER WATER SO SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY. HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE SOUTH OF THE TRACK. WE STILL
EXPECT STRONG WINDS NORTH OF THE TRACK ALONG THE COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA DUE TO THE LARGE CIRCULATION. GALE-FORCE WINDS HAVE REACHED
BACARRO PT AS OF 8 AM LOCAL TIME.

AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS MESSAGES BY OUR OFFICE..EXTRA TROPICAL
TRANSITION TO BE DELAYED UNTIL TONIGHT SINCE THE HURRICANE WILL
REMAIN EMBEDDED IN THE AMBIENT TROPICAL AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN
PRESENT OVER EASTERN CANADA FOR MUCH OF MID AUGUST. THIS AMOUNTS TO
BILL RETAINING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LONGER THAN USUAL.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
THE MAXIMUM RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE LENGTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE TRACK GIVEN THE REMAINING TROPICAL CHARACTER
OF THIS STORM. GIVEN THAT THE DEEPEST CONVECTION OF THE STORM CORE IS
SHEARING-OFF TO THE ENE..RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA
MAY NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH AS EARLIER THOUGHT..BUT MUCH TOO EARLY TO
CHANGE THINKING AT THIS TIME.

D. MARINE WEATHER

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
23/06Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 75 45 25 35
23/12Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 70 50 30 40
23/18Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 55 55 35 35
24/00Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 45 60 45 0
24/06Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 0 0 0 0
24/12Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 0 0 0 0
24/18Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 0 0 0 0

END FOGARTY/CAMPBELL/NICKERSON/MERCER

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

000
WTNT33 KNHC 231157
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
800 AM AST SUN AUG 23 2009

...LARGE HURRICANE BILL ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD...

AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
DISCONTINUED FOR THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS
OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA FROM CHARLESVILLE TO POINT ACONI. A HURRICANE WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM
TO POINT ACONI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONES COVE TO BONAVISTA. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST AND SOUTH COAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND FROM PARSONS POND AROUND TO STONES COVE...AND ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM BONAVISTA TO HARBOUR DEEP.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA FROM NORTH OF POINT ACONI WESTWARD TO TIDNISH...FOR THE
WESTERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO CHARLESVILLE...
AND FOR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND FROM VICTORIA IN QUEEN COUNTY
NORTHWARD TO LOWER DARNLEY IN PRINCE COUNTY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND
WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE
42.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.4 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES...285 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 31 MPH...50 KM/HR...AND A
FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF BILL WILL PASS NEAR OR JUST OFF THE EASTERN
COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY...AND NEAR OR OVER SOUTHEASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TODAY AS BILL MOVES OVER
COOLER WATERS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290
MILES...465 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE TRACK OF BILL ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND NEWFOUNDLAND.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND SPREAD INTO THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES
OF CANADA TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. SWELLS FROM BILL ARE STILL
AFFECTING BERMUDA BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY.

...SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...42.4N 65.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 31 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB


THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BROWN