Tropical Storm Franklin A Potential Long-Range Threat

651 

WTNT33 KNHC 220251

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number   6

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082023

1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023

...FRANKLIN MOVING SLOWLY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.5N 70.2W

ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM S OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Dominican Republic entire south coast from Haiti border eastward

to Isla Saona

* Haiti entire south coast from Anse d'Hainault eastward to the

Dominican Republic border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Dominican Republic entire north and east coast from the Haiti

border eastward and southward to Isla Saona

* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Dominican Republic should

monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was 

located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 70.2 West. Franklin is 

moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). Franklin has 

been meandering in the eastern Caribbean tonight. Franklin should 

turn northward on Tuesday with this general motion continuing into 

Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Franklin is forecast 

to reach the southern coast of Hispaniola by on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher 

gusts. Some strengthening is forecast before Franklin reaches

Hispaniola.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)

from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Franklin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC

and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

RAINFALL:  Franklin is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to

4 inches, with isolated higher amounts of 6 inches, across Puerto

Rico through the middle of the week. Across portions of Hispaniola,

rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated higher amounts up

to 15 inches, are expected. Significant and potentially 

life-threatening flash flooding is possible Tuesday into Wednesday 

across Hispaniola.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the

warning area on Tuesday night into Wednesday and are possible

within the watch area beginning Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1

to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast near and to

the east of where the center makes landfall in Hispaniola.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.

Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$

Forecaster Kelly/Blake

584 

WTNT43 KNHC 220252

TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number   6

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082023

1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023

Franklin is not a well-organized tropical cyclone at this time. A 

NOAA reconnaissance aircraft was in the system earlier this evening 

and found an elongated low-level circulation, with possible 

multiple surface centers.  Franklin is also fairly asymmetric on 

satellite imagery, with convection only on the east side of the 

storm, near the mid-level center.  The initial intensity will 

remain at 45 kt for this advisory, which is in between the higher 

TAFB and lower SAB intensity estimates.  A NOAA G-IV mission should 

hopefully provide more in-situ data overnight.

The tropical storm has been meandering in the eastern Caribbean for 

much of the day.  There is the potential that the center may try to 

reform to the northeast, near a new burst of convection and the 

mid-level center, but this is an uncertain evolution.  Eventually,  

mid-level ridging will build to the east of Franklin, which should 

allow the system to move more northward in the next 36 hours, and 

then northeastward between 48-96 h. The NHC track forecast is 

shifted slightly to the right in the short term, and it lies a 

little east of the consensus aids given the potential reformation of 

the center to the northeast.

Franklin is currently in an environment of moderate vertical wind 

shear, which is disrupting the cyclone's organization. SHIPS 

guidance shows that the shear will slightly decrease over the next 

12-24 hours, which will allow for some intensification before it 

reaches Hispaniola. After land interaction over Hispaniola, there 

will be some weakening due to the mountainous terrain. After 

Franklin emerges north of the island in the western Atlantic, the 

forecast calls for some slight strengthening as it moves northeast, 

then northward. The intensity forecast is fairly low confidence 

given all the different environmental factors and land interaction, 

but lies near the corrected consensus aids.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Franklin is expected across portions of 

Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through the middle of the week. The heavy 

rainfall may produce areas of flash and urban flooding as well as 

river rises and mudslides. Across Hispaniola, significant and 

potentially life-threatening flash flooding is possible Tuesday into 

Wednesday.

2. Franklin is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to

portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti beginning on Tuesday

where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 14.5N  70.2W   45 KT  50 MPH

 12H  22/1200Z 14.9N  70.6W   50 KT  60 MPH

 24H  23/0000Z 16.3N  70.7W   55 KT  65 MPH

 36H  23/1200Z 18.1N  70.6W   55 KT  65 MPH

 48H  24/0000Z 20.1N  70.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

 60H  24/1200Z 21.6N  69.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

 72H  25/0000Z 22.6N  67.8W   55 KT  65 MPH

 96H  26/0000Z 23.7N  65.7W   60 KT  70 MPH

120H  27/0000Z 25.9N  65.8W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$

Forecaster Kelly/Blake