Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook For Northern & Eastern Maine - 02/18/2021

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FGUS71 KCAR 182043

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MEC003-009-019-021-025-029-252045-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME

343 PM EST THU FEB 18 2021

..SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN... CENTRAL...AND 

DOWNEAST MAINE...

THIS IS THE FOURTH WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR 2021, 

ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CARIBOU, MAINE. THIS 

OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN, CENTRAL, AND DOWNEAST MAINE FOR THE TWO- 

WEEK PERIOD OF FEBRUARY 18TH TO MARCH 4TH, 2021.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR OPEN WATER FLOODING IS SLIGHTLY BELOW 

NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO ICE 

JAMS IS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN MAINE RIVERS, WHILE THE 

CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST REGION IS BELOW NORMAL.

...CLIMATOLOGICAL GUIDANCE... 

TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF FEBRUARY AVERAGED BETWEEN 1 TO 3 

DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION RANGED FROM 0.30 TO 0.90 INCHES

ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTH, WITH THE BANGOR AREA APPROXIMATELY 

0.10 INCHES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. 

THERE WERE TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS IN 

FEBRUARY. THE FIRST BROUGHT BETWEEN 3 TO 5 INCHES, MAINLY OVER 

WASHINGTON COUNTY, WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. 

A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM BROUGHT BETWEEN 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW TO 

NORTHERN AREAS ON FEBRUARY 16TH. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS EXPERIENCED

BETWEEN 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET, ALONG WITH AROUND 0.10 INCHES 

OF FREEZING RAIN ON THE COAST. 

A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT TWO

WEEKS WITH A MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEMS PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE

REGION. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING

SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL

AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHILE THE DOWNEAST REGION COULD SEE A 

WINTRY MIX. THIS ALL DEPENDS ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS 

SYSTEM. 

THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 6 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK IS CALLING

FOR ABOVE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL

PRECIPITATION.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENTS...

SNOW DEPTHS RANGED BETWEEN 16 TO 26 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN AND 

NORTHWEST MAINE, WHILE THE MAINE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS RECORDED 12 TO

20 INCHES OF SNOW DEPTH. CHIMNEY POND, LOCATED IN THE BAXTER 

STATE PARK REGION, CAME WITH AN INCREDIBLE 35 INCHES OF SNOW ON 

THE GROUND. AS OF 8 AM THIS MORNING, THE NWS OFFICE IN CARIBOU HAD

A 18 INCH SNOW DEPTH, WHILE FORT KENT IN THE ST. JOHN VALLEY CAME

IN WITH 26 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. BANGOR INCREASED ITS 

SNOW DEPTH TO 9 INCHES. 

SNOW DEPTHS CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE 

AREA, THOUGH EASTERN REGIONS ARE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. 

THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT, OR THE AMOUNT OF WATER CONTAINED IN 

THE SNOWPACK, RANGED FROM 3.4 TO JUST OVER 5 INCHES ACROSS 

NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS. THE NWS IN CARIBOU RECORDED A 

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT OF 3.4 INCHES, WITH THE HIGHEST SNOW WATER 

EQUIVALENT OF 5.3 INCHES MEASURED NEAR PORTAGE. 

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ACROSS THE MAINE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO 

THE DOWNEAST REGION, INCLUDING THE COAST, RANGED FROM 2 TO 4 

INCHES. 

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME 

OF YEAR, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PENOBSCOT VALLEY INTO DOWNEAST,

AS SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

...SOIL MOISTURE AND WATER SUPPLY CONDITIONS...

THE LATEST PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX, WHICH MEASURES SOIL 

MOISTURE IN THE LONGER TERM, CONTINUED TO SHOW NEAR NORMAL 

CONDITIONS.

A LOOK AT THE GROUNDWATER LEVELS, COURTESY OF THE USGS, SHOWED

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST AREAS.

FORT KENT CONTINUES TO REPORT GROUNDWATER LEVELS TO BE WELL ABOVE

NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXISTING SNOWPACK IS AVAILABLE FOR 

RECHARGE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE REGION. 

...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...

RIVER FLOWS WERE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH THE

EXCEPTION OF THE ST. CROIX RIVER BASIN, WHERE FLOWS WERE NEAR TO 

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGED BELOW NORMAL FROM FEBRUARY 8TH THROUGH THIS

MORNING, WHICH ALLOWED RIVER ICE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE

AREA. MOST OF THE STREAMS AND RIVERS ACROSS THE REGION ARE SNOW 

AND ICE COVERED, ESPECIALLY FROM THE PISCATAQUIS RIVER BASIN 

NORTHWARD TO THE ST. JOHN AND AROOSTOOK RIVER BASINS. ALTHOUGH, 

THERE ARE SECTIONS OF OPEN WATER.

NORTHERN MAINE RIVERS WERE PRETTY MUCH ICED OVER WITH SOME OPEN

WATER IN SOME SPOTS WHERE THERE IS GOOD RIVER FLOW, SUCH AS NEAR 

ASHLAND AND UP NEAR THE FORT KENT REGION. ICE THICKNESSES RANGED 

FROM 12 TO 18 INCHES ACROSS THE ALLAGASH AND ST. JOHN RIVERS, 

WHILE 10 TO 14 INCHES OF ICE EXISTS ACROSS THE AROOSTOOK RIVER. 

THE FISH RIVER HAD EXPANDED IN ICE COVERAGE, BUT THERE WAS A GOOD 

STRETCH OF OPEN WATER IN THE FORT KENT REGION. ICE THICKNESS WAS 

ESTIMATED TO BE 8 TO 12 INCHES.

THE PENOBSCOT RIVER WAS ICED IN AROUND THE BANGOR REGION FOR

APPROXIMATELY 3 MILES, INCLUDING WHERE THE KENDUSKEAG STREAM 

JOINS THE PENOBSCOT. OPEN WATER WAS NOTED NORTH TOWARD THE OLD 

TOWN AREA, WITH SOME OPEN AREAS AS FAR NORTH AS THE MILLINOCKET 

AREA. THE EAST BRANCH OF THE PENOBSCOT RIVER AT GRINDSTONE WAS 

ICE COVERED WITH SOME OPEN STRETCHES TO THE SOUTH. ICE THICKNESS 

WAS MEASURED BY THE USGS TO BE AROUND 8 INCHES AT GRINDSTONE, AND

ALONG THE STRETCH OF KENDUSKEAG STREAM MEETING UP WITH THE 

PENOBSCOT RIVER AT BANGOR. THE PISCATAQUIS RIVER FROM BLANCHARD TO

DOVER-FOXCROFT WAS ICE COVERED WITH SOME OPEN SECTIONS ALONG THE 

SIDES, WHILE SOME OPEN WATER WAS NOTED TOWARD THE MEDFORD REGION. 

THE USGS MEASURED ICE THICKNESSES OF 7 TO 10 INCHES ON THE 

PISCATAQUIS RIVER ALONG THE STRETCH FROM BLANCHARD TO DOVER-FOXCROFT.

THERE ARE SOME ICE JAMS REMAINING IN PLACE. ONE BUNCHED UP JAM 

RESIDES ON THE AROOSTOOK RIVER FROM JUST EAST OF CARIBOU TO THE 

FORT FAIRFIELD BRIDGE. THIS JAM IS APPROXIMATELY 7 MILES IN 

LENGTH. THE JAM REMAINS BROKEN UP IN SPOTS ALONG THIS STRETCH. A 

SMALL BUNCHED UP JAM REMAINS IN PLACE NEAR THE TOWN OF CROUSEVILLE

ON THE AROOSTOOK RIVER. THERE IS ANOTHER SMALL, BUNCHED UP JAM 

THAT REMAINS IN PLACE ON THE ST. JOHN RIVER, JUST SOUTH OF LILLE 

TO THE TOWN OF KEEGAN. FINALLY, AN ICE JAM WAS NOTED ON THE 

ALLAGASH RIVER NEAR THE BRIDGE WHERE THE ALLAGASH RIVER MEETS THE 

ST. JOHN RIVER. 

DESPITE THE ICE COVERAGE EXPANDING OVER THE LAST TWO WEEKS, ICE 

COVERAGE AND THICKNESSES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF 

YEAR. 

...IN CONCLUSION...

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR OPEN WATER FLOODING IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL

ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO ICE JAMS 

REMAINS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE NORTHERN MAINE RIVER BASINS. THE FLOOD

POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING ACROSS THE PISCATAQUIS AND 

PENOBSCOT RIVER BASINS IS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT ALONG 

WITH MILD TEMPERATURES CAN LEAD TO AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR 

FLOODING WITH SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF. ICE BREAKING UP AND JAMMING CAN

ELEVATE THE THREAT FOR FLOODING IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. 

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY, 

MARCH 4TH.

$$

FARRAR/HEWITT