Scattered Flooding Possible Throughout The Region Due To Stalled Frontal Boundary Update One

Scattered Flooding Possible Throughout The Region Due To Stalled Frontal Boundary

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Gray ME
255 PM EDT Wed Sep 6 2017

...Heavy rainfall expected through tonight...

.A stalled frontal boundary and a very moist air mass will aid in
the development of bands of showers and a few thunderstorms, which
will then continue into tonight. Torrential downpours will likely
occur in the watch area which will lead to the potential for
flash flooding.

MEZ008-009-012>014-018>022-NHZ004>013-015-071100-
/O.CON.KGYX.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-170907T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Franklin-Central Somerset-Southern Oxford-
Southern Franklin-Southern Somerset-Interior York-
Interior Cumberland-Androscoggin-Kennebec-Interior Waldo-
Northern Carroll-Southern Grafton-Southern Carroll-Sullivan-
Merrimack-Belknap-Strafford-Cheshire-Eastern Hillsborough-
Interior Rockingham-Western And Central Hillsborough-
Including the cities of Coburn Gore, Davis, Oquossoc, Rangeley,
Avon, Kingfield, Phillips, New Portland, Brassua, Long Pond,
Moosehead, Pittston Farm, Seboomook, Bingham, Jackman, Bethel,
Bryant Pond, Hanover, Locke Mills, Milton, Newry, Rumford,
Norway, Fryeburg, Oxford, Farmington, New Sharon, New Vineyard,
Temple, Wilton, Chesterville, Jay, Athens, Cornville, Skowhegan,
Palmyra, Pittsfield, Embden, Madison, Hollis, Alfred, Lebanon,
Sanford, Goodwins Mills, Buxton, Limington, Berwick,
New Gloucester, Gray, North Windham, Gorham, Bridgton, Greene,
Lewiston, Sabattus, Wales, Minot, Turner, Auburn,
Livermore Falls, Augusta, Sidney, Windsor, Vassalboro,
Waterville, China, Palermo, Brooks, Jackson, Knox, Liberty,
Montville, Morrill, Waldo, Winterport, Unity, North Conway,
Albany, Conway, Chatham, Crawford Notch, Lyme, Ashland,
Ellsworth, Holderness, Plymouth, Rumney, Wakefield, Bridgewater,
Brookfield, Ossipee, Tuftonboro, Wolfeboro, Moultonborough,
Claremont, Cornish, Croydon, Goshen, Grantham, Lempster, Newport,
Charlestown, Boscawen, Canterbury, Concord, Dunbarton, Loudon,
Hooksett, Laconia, Gilford, Meredith, Barrington, Rochester,
Dover, Rollinsford, Somersworth, Durham, Madbury, Gilsum, Keene,
Marlow, Sullivan, Surry, Jaffrey, Manchester, Pelham, Nashua,
Salem, Atkinson, Newton, Plaistow, Chester, Derry, Hampstead,
Exeter, Amherst, Milford, Mont Vernon, Goffstown, Peterborough,
Sharon, and Weare
255 PM EDT Wed Sep 6 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of Maine and New Hampshire, including the following
  areas, in Maine, Androscoggin, Central and Southern Somerset,
  Interior Cumberland, Interior Waldo, Interior York, Kennebec,
  Franklin, and Southern Oxford. In New Hampshire, Belknap,
  Cheshire, Hillsborough, Interior Rockingham, Merrimack, Carroll,
  Southern Grafton, Strafford, and Sullivan.

* Through Thursday morning.

* Bands of showers and thunderstorms are expected in the watch
  area and will continue through tonight. Very heavy rainfall
  rates are expected at times, with 2 to 4 inches of rain possible
  by early Thursday morning. This is in addition to the heavy
  rainfall that fell in spots Tuesday afternoon and evening. As a
  result, flash flooding will be possible along with a good chance
  of urban and small stream flooding.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&
$$

ES

6:38 PM ADT Wednesday 06 September 2017
Severe thunderstorm warning in effect for:

Moncton and Southeast New Brunswick
At 6:38 p.m. ADT, Environment Canada meteorologists are tracking a severe thunderstorm capable of producing heavy rain.

A line of thunderstorms stretching from the Bay of Fundy to northern Kent County is slowly tracking northeastward. A secondary line of thunderstorms has formed over the western Sussex County and is expected to move into southeastern New Brunswick this evening. Both of these lines of thunderstorms are producing very high rainfall rates of 25 mm per hour or more.

Recent rainfall observations from multiple communities under these conditions have shown that these thunderstorms are capable of producing rainfall near 50 mm in a short period of time.

These thunderstorms are expected to persist until later this evening.

Heavy downpours can cause flash floods and water pooling on roads. Heavy downpours are likely to cause flash floods and water pooling on roads. Avoid driving through water on roads. Lightning kills and injures Canadians every year. Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors!

Severe thunderstorm warnings are issued when imminent or occurring thunderstorms are likely to produce or are producing one or more of the following: large hail, damaging winds, torrential rainfall.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to ec.weatheraspc.ec@canada.ca or tweet reports using #NBStorm.

 6:03 PM ADT Wednesday 06 September 2017
Severe thunderstorm watch in effect for:

Stanley - Doaktown - Blackville Area
Conditions are favourable for the development of severe thunderstorms that may be capable of producing heavy rain.

A line of thunderstorms stretching from the Bay of Fundy to northern Kent County is slowly tracking northeastward. Recent rainfall observations have shown that this line of thunderstorms is capable of producing brief but very heavy downpours.

These thunderstorms are expected to dissipate later this evening.

Heavy downpours can cause flash floods and water pooling on roads. Lightning kills and injures Canadians every year. Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors!

Severe thunderstorm watches are issued when atmospheric conditions are favourable for the development of thunderstorms that could produce one or more of the following: large hail, damaging winds, torrential rainfall.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to ec.weatheraspc.ec@canada.ca or tweet reports using #NBStorm.

3:31 PM ADT Wednesday 06 September 2017
Special weather statement in effect for:

Halifax Metro and Halifax County West
A low pressure system is expected to develop over New England Thursday morning and track northeastward to lie over central Labrador by early Friday morning.

Showers associated with this system are expected to begin over southwestern Nova Scotia this evening and spread eastward throughout Thursday. Showers are expected to become heavy at times during the day Thursday as the precipitation tracks northeastward.

At this time 30 to 45 mm of rain is expected by Friday morning however, there remains some uncertainty with the intensity and track of this system. Changes in the forecast track of this feature could significantly alter total rainfall accumulation by Friday morning.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to ec.weatheraspc.ec@canada.ca or tweet reports using #NSStorm.

Record Setting Category Five Hurricane Irma May Effect The Region Early Next Week

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
500 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2017

The eye of Irma passed over the northernmost Virgin Islands earlier
this afternoon and it is now located just to their northwest.  The
satellite and radar presentation of the hurricane remains extremely
impressive.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft reported
peak SFMR winds of 156 kt and flight-level winds of 164 kt during
its mission this afternoon.  Although there have been no SFMR or
flight-level winds as high as what was observed yesterday, the
initial intensity remains 160 kt, due to the potential of
undersampling.  Dropsonde observations in the eye indicated that the
pressure rose a few millibars this morning, but the most recent
aircraft report shows that the pressure has fallen to 914 mb.

The hurricane remains on a west-northwestward motion at about 14
kt.  A high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic is forecast to
keep Irma on a west-northwestward course over the next 48 to 72
hours.  The track guidance is still in good agreement during that
period, and little change to the NHC forecast was required.  By the
weekend, a shortwave trough diving southward over the east-central
United States is expected to cause Irma to turn northwestward and
northward.  The 12Z guidance has generally shifted slightly
westward, closer to the previous NHC forecast.  As a result, little
overall change was made to the 4-5 day track forecast.  The NHC
track is once again close to the HFIP corrected consensus model.
This is also near the 12Z GEFS ensemble mean, but a little east of
the latest ECMWF ensemble mean.  Users are reminded that the average
NHC track errors at days 4 and 5 are about 175 and 225 miles,
respectively.

Low vertical wind shear and warm waters along the forecast track of
Irma should allow it to remain a very powerful hurricane during the
next several days, and the intensity forecast is again near the
upper-end of the guidance and is the same as the previous advisory
through 96 hours.  Increasingly southwesterly shear and potential
land interaction late in the period is expected to cause some
decrease in Irma's strength by day 5.

Efforts to provide the forecast models with as much data as possible
continue, with 6-hourly NWS balloon launches across much of the
continental United States, and the NOAA G-IV aircraft currently
sampling the environment around the storm.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane and will
bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to
Puerto Rico tonight, the northern coast of Hispaniola Thursday, and
the Turks and Caicos and southeastern and central Bahamas Thursday
and Friday.

2. Hurricane watches are in effect for the northwestern Bahamas and
much of Cuba.  Irma is likely to bring dangerous wind, storm surge,
and rainfall to portions of these areas on Friday and Saturday.

3. The threat of direct hurricane impacts in Florida over the
weekend and early next week has increased.  Hurricane watches could
be issued for portions of the Florida Keys and the Florida peninsula
on Thursday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/2100Z 18.8N  65.4W  160 KT 185 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 19.6N  67.6W  155 KT 180 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 20.7N  70.4W  150 KT 175 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 21.5N  73.1W  145 KT 165 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 22.2N  75.6W  140 KT 160 MPH
 72H  09/1800Z 23.2N  79.0W  135 KT 155 MPH
 96H  10/1800Z 26.0N  80.2W  125 KT 145 MPH
120H  11/1800Z 31.0N  81.0W  105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

NNNN