WTNT35 KNHC 092042
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa Advisory Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM AST Fri Jul 09 2021
...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED...
...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
US THIS EVENING...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...43.0N 69.5W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ENE OF BOSTON MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SE OF PORTLAND MAINE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
All remaining Tropical Storm Warnings for the northeastern U.S.
coast have been discontinued.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
None.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa
was located near latitude 43.0 North, longitude 69.5 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 35 mph (56
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with an
increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the center of Elsa will continue to move offshore
the northeastern United States coast through this evening. The
system is expected to move over Atlantic Canada by late tonight and
Saturday.
Surface observations during the past several hours indicate
that maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple
of days. Elsa is forecast to dissipate over the north Atlantic by
Sunday afternoon.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.
WIND: Gusty winds will continue across portions of the southern New
England coast during the next couple of hours. The post-tropical
cyclone is also expected to bring gusty winds to portions of
Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday.
RAINFALL: Across coastal Maine...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated
totals up to 6 inches are possible through this evening, which could
result in considerable flash and urban flooding. Isolated minor to
moderate river flooding is also expected.
For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Elsa,
please visit the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
637
WTNT45 KNHC 092042
TCDAT5
Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM AST Fri Jul 09 2021
Surface, satellite, and radar data indicate that Elsa's deep
convection remains limited to a shield north of its center and that
a front extends through the center of the cyclone. For those
reasons, Elsa was designated as a post-tropical cyclone at 1800 UTC.
Surface observations of sustained winds a little above 40 kt were
reported across portions of southern Massachusetts and the nearby
waters as Elsa crossed the state, so the intensity estimate remains
45 kt.
Elsa is moving quickly just off the northeast coast of the U.S. with
an initial motion estimate of 040/27 kt. A faster northeastward
motion is expected tonight and on Saturday while the system remains
embedded within a deep mid-latitude trough. Very little change was
made to the NHC track forecast. All available guidance indicates
that Elsa will gradually weaken during the next couple of days. The
GFS, ECMWF, and CMC global models now indicate the cyclone will open
into a trough within the next 48 h or so, and this is reflected in
the NHC forecast.
It is estimated that center of Elsa made landfall along the coast of
Long Island near Southampton around 1430 UTC (10:30 am EDT), and
again near Watch Hill, Rhode Island near 1615 UTC (12:15 pm EDT).
Elsa's classification at the time the center crossed the coast will
be determined in the post-storm analysis. It should also be noted
that the landfall position had little bearing on the location or
timing of the strong winds and heavy rain which were well removed
from the cyclone's center.
Since Elsa is now post-tropical and all coastal tropical storm
warnings have been discontinued, this is the last NHC advisory.
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
Key Messages:
1. As Elsa moves off the coast of Maine through this evening, heavy
rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding.
2. Gusty winds will continue across portions of the southern New
England coast during the next couple of hours. The post-tropical
cyclone is also expected to bring gusty winds to portions of
Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/2100Z 43.0N 69.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 10/0600Z 46.2N 64.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 10/1800Z 50.3N 56.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 11/0600Z 54.7N 46.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Caribou ME
350 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021
MEZ006-011-015>017-029>032-100415-
/O.CON.KCAR.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-210710T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Southeast Aroostook-Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-Interior
Hancock-Central Washington-Coastal Hancock-Coastal Washington-
Southern Piscataquis-Northern Washington-
Including the cities of Orono, Perry, Howland, Danforth, Calais,
Old Town, Grand Lake Stream, Springfield, Eastport, Castine,
Aurora, Sherman, Guilford, Bar Harbor, Wesley, Orland,
Cherryfield, Lincoln, Smyrna Mills, Houlton, Princeton, Hodgdon,
Machias, Dedham, Bangor, Great Pond, Eastbrook, Vanceboro,
Dover-Foxcroft, Topsfield, Brewer, Bucksport, Amherst, Milo, and
Ellsworth
350 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...
The Flash Flood Watch continues for
* Portions of Central Highlands, Coastal DownEast, Far Eastern,
Interior DownEast, and Penobscot Valley Maine., including the
following areas, in Central Highlands Maine, Southern Piscataquis.
In Coastal DownEast Maine, Coastal Hancock and Coastal Washington.
In Far Eastern Maine, Northern Washington and Southeast Aroostook.
In Interior DownEast Maine, Central Washington and Interior
Hancock. In Penobscot Valley Maine, Central Penobscot and Southern
Penobscot.
* Through Saturday morning.
* Tropical moisture will bring very heavy rainfall to the
region.
* Heavy rainfall rates will persist through the evening and early
morning hours of Saturday. Rainfall rates will likely exceed 1
inch per hour at times through the evening. Widespread rain totals
of 2 to 3.5 inches are expected through the remainder of the
afternoon into early Saturday. Locally higher totals are also
expected. These rainfall totals and rain rates could lead to flash
flooding.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
&&
$$
Norcross
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Gray ME
250 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021
MEZ012>014-018>028-033-100300-
/O.CON.KGYX.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-210710T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Southern Oxford-Southern Franklin-Southern Somerset-Interior York-
Central Interior Cumberland-Androscoggin-Kennebec-Interior Waldo-
Coastal York-Coastal Cumberland-Sagadahoc-Lincoln-Knox-Coastal
Waldo-Interior Cumberland Highlands-
Including the cities of Bridgton, Jay, Alna, Bremen, Cape
Elizabeth, Minot, Biddeford, Brunswick, Brooks, Newcastle,
Bowdoin, Morrill, Augusta, Skowhegan, Gorham, New Sharon,
Topsham, Knox, New Gloucester, New Vineyard, Saco, Sabattus,
Camden, Rockport, Windsor, Embden, Jackson, Wilton, Arrowsic,
Chesterville, Alfred, Auburn, Norway, South Portland, Appleton,
Pittsfield, Northport, Livermore Falls, Rockland, Montville,
China, Cornville, Gray, Locke Mills, Greene, Damariscotta,
Lincolnville, Madison, Phippsburg, Whitefield, Limington,
Bowdoinham, Vassalboro, North Windham, Sanford, Belfast, Sidney,
Bryant Pond, Fryeburg, Wales, Temple, Bethel, Farmington,
Kittery, Palermo, Waldo, Yarmouth, Liberty, Westbrook, Lewiston,
Old Orchard Beach, Lebanon, Unity, Bath, Harrison, Palmyra,
Rumford, Winterport, Waterville, Athens, Goodwins Mills,
Thomaston, Buxton, Naples, Hope, Dresden, Oxford, Berwick,
Milton, Hanover, Newry, Waldoboro, Hollis, Bristol, Turner, Owls
Head, Boothbay Harbor, Searsmont, Portland, and Wiscasset
250 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...
The Flash Flood Watch continues for
* Portions of south central, southwest, and western Maine, including
the following areas, in Maine, Central Interior Cumberland. In
south central Maine, Coastal Waldo, Interior Waldo, Kennebec,
Knox, Lincoln, Sagadahoc and Southern Somerset. In southwest
Maine, Androscoggin, Coastal Cumberland, Coastal York and Interior
York. In western Maine, Interior Cumberland Highlands, Southern
Franklin and Southern Oxford.
* Through Saturday morning.
* Tropical moisture will bring showers with very heavy rainfall to
the region.
* Some areas may experience rainfall rates in excess of 2 inch per
hour for more than one hour leading to the threat of flash
flooding.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
&&
$$
