WOCN11 CWHX 211118
Special weather statement for Nova Scotia issued by Environment
Canada at 8:09 AM ADT Friday 21 August 2009.
Ocean swell from hurricane Bill will begin to move towards the
Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia tonight and continue to grow.
On Saturday.. Swell heights near 2 metres will generate rough surf
and hazardous rip currents along some beaches. Breaking wave heights
on the shoreline are expected to be from 2 to 3 metres (7 to 10 feet)
along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia on Saturday.
Residents are advised to exercise caution where large waves approach
rapidly and break onshore.
END/..
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WOCN31 CWHX 211200
Hurricane Bill information statement issued by the canadian
Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 9.00 AM ADT Friday
21 August 2009.
The next statement will be issued by 3.00 PM ADT
...Hurricane Bill to impact Atlantic Canada on Sunday...
1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion
At 9.00 AM ADT... Hurricane Bill was located near latitude 26.8 N
And longitude 65.8 W... About 335 nautical miles or 625 km
South of Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at
100 knots...185 km/h... And central pressure at 958 MB. Bill is
Moving north northwest at 15 knots... 28 km/h.
2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength
Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
ADT MB kts kmh
Aug 21 9.00 AM 26.8N 65.8W 958 100 185
Aug 21 9.00 PM 29.5N 67.7W 951 105 194
Aug 22 9.00 AM 32.9N 68.7W 950 110 204
Aug 22 9.00 PM 36.8N 68.4W 958 100 185 transitioning
Aug 23 9.00 AM 41.2N 66.1W 970 90 167 transitioning
Aug 23 9.00 PM 45.2N 61.3W 980 75 139 transitioning
Aug 24 9.00 AM 47.8N 53.0W 987 65 120 post-tropical
Aug 24 9.00 PM 50.3N 42.5W 992 60 111 post-tropical
3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary
At this point it is too early for warnings to be issued as Bill
remains well to our south.
Swell from hurricane Bill will arrive along the Atlantic coast
Of Nova Scotia on Saturday. Swell heights near 2 m
Will generate rough surf and hazardous rip currents along some
beaches. Breaking wave heights on the shoreline may exceed 3 m
Along parts of the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia Saturday.
Wave heights will further increase over Atlantic coastal
Nova Scotia and Newfoundland Sunday and Sunday night as Bill
Moves northeastward. Wave heights will be highest over areas
South of Bill's track.
Residents are advised to exercise caution where large waves break
onshore.
Some of the largest spring tides of the year will be occurring
This weekend. This may combine with large waves and storm surge
Over the Atlantic coast of Eastern Nova Scotia late on Sunday..As
well as the South Coast of Newfoundland overnight into Monday.
4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary
Given the current CHC track hurricane Bill is expected to begin
To impact maritime marine areas Saturday night and Newfoundland
marine areas Sunday night. Winds will rapidly increase on Sunday
Over southern maritime marine areas starting over southwestern
Areas. Over Southern Newfoundland waters winds will rapidly
Increase from west to east Sunday night and Monday. It
Appears very likely that hurricane and storm force winds will
Spread over portions of the southern marine areas of the
Maritimes and Newfoundland as a result of Bill. However it is
Too early to issue warnings.
5. Technical discussion for meteorologists
A. Analysis
Following nhc on position and intensity.
Bill's satellite signature has deterioted overnight. Southerly
Shear is indicated and the eye has filled in. Water vapour
Imagery indicates dry air to the south of Bill.
B. Prognostic
Following nhc on intensity.
Bill is tracking northwestward south of Bermuda. Bill is expected
To begin a gradual turn north-northwest today and northward on
Saturday in response to a deep-layer trough forecast to move over
The Eastern United States and an upper-level ridge building
Over the Atlantic. On Sunday Bill will curve and accelerate
northeastward ahead of the trough. Track guidance is tightly
clustered for the first couple of days but then becomes divergent
On both direction and speed later in the forecast period.
Cyclone phase space diagrams indicate Bill will begin to undergo
extra-tropical transition on the 23rd and will be completed early
On the 24th.
C. Public weather
As the storm begins transitioning on the 23rd we should be seeing
The rain shield extending to the left and forward of track and
The wind field starting to expand away from the storm centre.
D. Marine weather
Predicted wind radii (NM)
Time gales storms hurricane
Ne se sw nw ne se sw nw ne se sw nw
21/12Z 250 200 120 200 130 110 60 130 100 45 30 90
22/00Z 250 200 120 200 130 110 60 130 100 45 30 90
22/12Z 250 200 120 200 130 110 60 130 100 45 30 90
23/00Z 250 250 150 180 105 95 60 85 90 45 20 60
23/12Z 240 205 125 200 115 105 70 75 65 55 25 25
24/00Z 230 250 200 180 100 130 100 90 55 50 10 10
24/12Z 235 260 145 120 135 135 85 60 20 20 0 0
25/00Z 240 260 150 120 145 145 90 60 0 0 0 0
End hatt/mercer/bowyer
WOCN31 CWHX 211200
HURRICANE BILL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT FRIDAY
21 AUGUST 2009.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT
...HURRICANE BILL TO IMPACT ATLANTIC CANADA ON SUNDAY...
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
AT 9.00 AM ADT... HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 N
AND LONGITUDE 65.8 W... ABOUT 335 NAUTICAL MILES OR 625 KM
SOUTH OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
100 KNOTS...185 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 958 MB. BILL IS
MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS... 28 KM/H.
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
AUG 21 9.00 AM 26.8N 65.8W 958 100 185
AUG 21 9.00 PM 29.5N 67.7W 951 105 194
AUG 22 9.00 AM 32.9N 68.7W 950 110 204
AUG 22 9.00 PM 36.8N 68.4W 958 100 185 TRANSITIONING
AUG 23 9.00 AM 41.2N 66.1W 970 90 167 TRANSITIONING
AUG 23 9.00 PM 45.2N 61.3W 980 75 139 TRANSITIONING
AUG 24 9.00 AM 47.8N 53.0W 987 65 120 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 24 9.00 PM 50.3N 42.5W 992 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
AT THIS POINT IT IS TOO EARLY FOR WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED AS BILL
REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
SWELL FROM HURRICANE BILL WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF NOVA SCOTIA ON SATURDAY. SWELL HEIGHTS NEAR 2 M
WILL GENERATE ROUGH SURF AND HAZARDOUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG SOME
BEACHES. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE SHORELINE MAY EXCEED 3 M
ALONG PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FURTHER INCREASE OVER ATLANTIC COASTAL
NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS BILL
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE HIGHEST OVER AREAS
SOUTH OF BILL'S TRACK.
RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO EXERCISE CAUTION WHERE LARGE WAVES BREAK
ONSHORE.
SOME OF THE LARGEST SPRING TIDES OF THE YEAR WILL BE OCCURRING
THIS WEEKEND. THIS MAY COMBINE WITH LARGE WAVES AND STORM SURGE
OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST OF EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA LATE ON SUNDAY..AS
WELL AS THE SOUTH COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.
4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
GIVEN THE CURRENT CHC TRACK HURRICANE BILL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
TO IMPACT MARITIME MARINE AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND NEWFOUNDLAND
MARINE AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE ON SUNDAY
OVER SOUTHERN MARITIME MARINE AREAS STARTING OVER SOUTHWESTERN
AREAS. OVER SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS WINDS WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IT
APPEARS VERY LIKELY THAT HURRICANE AND STORM FORCE WINDS WILL
SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN MARINE AREAS OF THE
MARITIMES AND NEWFOUNDLAND AS A RESULT OF BILL. HOWEVER IT IS
TOO EARLY TO ISSUE WARNINGS.
5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS
A. ANALYSIS
FOLLOWING NHC ON POSITION AND INTENSITY.
BILL'S SATELLITE SIGNATURE HAS DETERIOTED OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY
SHEAR IS INDICATED AND THE EYE HAS FILLED IN. WATER VAPOUR
IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR TO THE SOUTH OF BILL.
B. PROGNOSTIC
FOLLOWING NHC ON INTENSITY.
BILL IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF BERMUDA. BILL IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN A GRADUAL TURN NORTH-NORTHWEST TODAY AND NORTHWARD ON
SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE ATLANTIC. ON SUNDAY BILL WILL CURVE AND ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS BUT THEN BECOMES DIVERGENT
ON BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS INDICATE BILL WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION ON THE 23RD AND WILL BE COMPLETED EARLY
ON THE 24TH.
C. PUBLIC WEATHER
AS THE STORM BEGINS TRANSITIONING ON THE 23RD WE SHOULD BE SEEING
THE RAIN SHIELD EXTENDING TO THE LEFT AND FORWARD OF TRACK AND
THE WIND FIELD STARTING TO EXPAND AWAY FROM THE STORM CENTRE.
D. MARINE WEATHER
PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
21/12Z 250 200 120 200 130 110 60 130 100 45 30 90
22/00Z 250 200 120 200 130 110 60 130 100 45 30 90
22/12Z 250 200 120 200 130 110 60 130 100 45 30 90
23/00Z 250 250 150 180 105 95 60 85 90 45 20 60
23/12Z 240 205 125 200 115 105 70 75 65 55 25 25
24/00Z 230 250 200 180 100 130 100 90 55 50 10 10
24/12Z 235 260 145 120 135 135 85 60 20 20 0 0
25/00Z 240 260 150 120 145 145 90 60 0 0 0 0
END HATT/MERCER/BOWYER
WOCN31 CWHX 210614 AAA
Hurricane Bill information statement issued by the canadian
Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 3.14 AM ADT Friday
21 August 2009.
The next statement will be issued by 9.00 AM ADT
...Hurricane Bill to impact Atlantic Canada on Sunday...
1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion
3.00 AM bulletin amended due to new intensity information
Measured from us airforce hurricane hunter aircraft.
At 3.00 AM ADT... Hurricane Bill was located near latitude 25.5 N
And longitude 64.9 W... About 410 nautical miles or 760 km south
Of Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 105 knots...
194 km/h... And central pressure at 951 MB. Bill is moving
North northwest at 16 knots... 30 km/h.
2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength
Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
ADT MB kts kmh
Aug 21 3.00 AM 25.5N 64.9W 951 105 194
Aug 21 3.00 PM 28.2N 66.8W 942 115 213
Aug 22 3.00 AM 31.3N 68.2W 942 115 213
Aug 22 3.00 PM 34.9N 68.6W 949 110 204
Aug 23 3.00 AM 39.0N 67.5W 961 100 185 transitioning
Aug 23 3.00 PM 43.0N 64.0W 973 85 157 transitioning
Aug 24 3.00 AM 46.3N 57.6W 983 70 130 post-tropical
Aug 24 3.00 PM 49.3N 48.5W 990 60 111 post-tropical
Aug 25 3.00 AM 52.5N 36.4W 994 55 102 post-tropical
3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary
At this point it is too early for warnings to be issued as Bill
remains well to our south.
Swell from hurricane Bill will arrive along the Atlantic coast
Of Nova Scotia early today. Swell heights near 2 m
Will generate rough surf and hazardous rip currents along some
beaches. Breaking wave heights on the shoreline are expected
To be from 2 to 3 m (7 to 10 feet) along the Atlantic coast of
Nova Scotia on Saturday. Residents are advised to exercise caution
where large waves break onshore.
Wave heights will further increase over Southern Nova Scotia and
Newfoundland Sunday and Sunday night as Bill moves northeastward.
Wave heights will be highest over areas south of Bill's track.
Given the current forecast track southwest facing shorelines
Over the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland appear to be most
vulnerable.
Above average water levels could be a coastal flooding threat
Over areas where Bill's track coincides with astronically high tides.
4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary
Given the current CHC track hurricane Bill is expected to begin
To impact maritime marine areas Saturday night and Newfoundland
marine areas Sunday night. Winds will rapidly increase on Sunday
Over southern maritime marine areas starting over southwestern
Areas. Over Southern Newfoundland waters winds will rapidly
Increase from west to east Sunday night and Monday. It
Appears very likely that hurricane and storm force winds will spread
over portions of the southern marine areas of the Maritimes and
Newfoundland as a result of Bill. However it is too early to issue
warnings.
5. Technical discussion for meteorologists
A. Analysis
Currently following nhc. Bill is a very large category 3 hurricane
with hurricane force winds extending up to 100 NM from the eye and
gales extending up to 220 NM from the eye.
B. Prognostic
Following nhc on intensity.
Bill is tracking northwestward south of Bermuda. Bill is expected
To begin a gradual turn north-northwest today and northward on
Saturday in response to a deep-layer trough forecast to move over
The Eastern United States and an upper-level ridge building
Over the Atlantic. On Sunday Bill will curve and accelerate
northeastward ahead of the trough. Track guidance is tightly
clustered for the first couple of days but then becomes divergent
On both direction and speed later in the forecast period.
Cyclone phase space diagrams indicate Bill will begin to undergo
extra-tropical transition on the 23rd and will be completed early
On the 24th.
C. Public weather
Heavy rain is very likely over portions of the Maritimes and
newfoundand on Sunday and early Monday. Strong winds are likely
Over the southern Maritimes Sunday and Southern Newfoundland
Sunday night and early Monday.
D. Marine weather
Predicted wind radii (NM)
Time gales storms hurricane
Ne se sw nw ne se sw nw ne se sw nw
21/06Z 220 175 100 175 120 90 60 90 100 75 45 55
21/18Z 220 175 100 175 120 90 60 90 100 75 45 55
22/06Z 220 175 100 175 120 90 60 90 100 75 45 55
22/18Z 205 180 105 175 105 90 60 90 75 50 30 35
23/06Z 215 195 120 165 110 100 65 85 70 55 30 30
23/18Z 225 215 135 145 120 115 75 70 65 60 20 20
24/06Z 235 260 145 125 130 130 85 60 45 45 5 5
24/18Z 240 260 150 120 145 145 90 60 0 0 0 0
25/06Z 240 260 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0
End hatt
WOCN31 CWHX 210614 AAA
HURRICANE BILL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.14 AM ADT FRIDAY
21 AUGUST 2009.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 AM ADT
...HURRICANE BILL TO IMPACT ATLANTIC CANADA ON SUNDAY...
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
3.00 AM BULLETIN AMENDED DUE TO NEW INTENSITY INFORMATION
MEASURED FROM US AIRFORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT.
AT 3.00 AM ADT... HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 N
AND LONGITUDE 64.9 W... ABOUT 410 NAUTICAL MILES OR 760 KM SOUTH
OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 105 KNOTS...
194 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 951 MB. BILL IS MOVING
NORTH NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS... 30 KM/H.
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
AUG 21 3.00 AM 25.5N 64.9W 951 105 194
AUG 21 3.00 PM 28.2N 66.8W 942 115 213
AUG 22 3.00 AM 31.3N 68.2W 942 115 213
AUG 22 3.00 PM 34.9N 68.6W 949 110 204
AUG 23 3.00 AM 39.0N 67.5W 961 100 185 TRANSITIONING
AUG 23 3.00 PM 43.0N 64.0W 973 85 157 TRANSITIONING
AUG 24 3.00 AM 46.3N 57.6W 983 70 130 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 24 3.00 PM 49.3N 48.5W 990 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 25 3.00 AM 52.5N 36.4W 994 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
AT THIS POINT IT IS TOO EARLY FOR WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED AS BILL
REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
SWELL FROM HURRICANE BILL WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF NOVA SCOTIA EARLY TODAY. SWELL HEIGHTS NEAR 2 M
WILL GENERATE ROUGH SURF AND HAZARDOUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG SOME
BEACHES. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE SHORELINE ARE EXPECTED
TO BE FROM 2 TO 3 M (7 TO 10 FEET) ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA ON SATURDAY. RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
WHERE LARGE WAVES BREAK ONSHORE.
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FURTHER INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA AND
NEWFOUNDLAND SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS BILL MOVES NORTHEASTWARD.
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE HIGHEST OVER AREAS SOUTH OF BILL'S TRACK.
GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK SOUTHWEST FACING SHORELINES
OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND APPEAR TO BE MOST
VULNERABLE.
ABOVE AVERAGE WATER LEVELS COULD BE A COASTAL FLOODING THREAT
OVER AREAS WHERE BILL'S TRACK COINCIDES WITH ASTRONICALLY HIGH TIDES.
4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
GIVEN THE CURRENT CHC TRACK HURRICANE BILL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
TO IMPACT MARITIME MARINE AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND NEWFOUNDLAND
MARINE AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE ON SUNDAY
OVER SOUTHERN MARITIME MARINE AREAS STARTING OVER SOUTHWESTERN
AREAS. OVER SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS WINDS WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IT
APPEARS VERY LIKELY THAT HURRICANE AND STORM FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN MARINE AREAS OF THE MARITIMES AND
NEWFOUNDLAND AS A RESULT OF BILL. HOWEVER IT IS TOO EARLY TO ISSUE
WARNINGS.
5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS
A. ANALYSIS
CURRENTLY FOLLOWING NHC. BILL IS A VERY LARGE CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE
WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM FROM THE EYE AND
GALES EXTENDING UP TO 220 NM FROM THE EYE.
B. PROGNOSTIC
FOLLOWING NHC ON INTENSITY.
BILL IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF BERMUDA. BILL IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN A GRADUAL TURN NORTH-NORTHWEST TODAY AND NORTHWARD ON
SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE ATLANTIC. ON SUNDAY BILL WILL CURVE AND ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS BUT THEN BECOMES DIVERGENT
ON BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS INDICATE BILL WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION ON THE 23RD AND WILL BE COMPLETED EARLY
ON THE 24TH.
C. PUBLIC WEATHER
HEAVY RAIN IS VERY LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARITIMES AND
NEWFOUNDAND ON SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY. STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY
OVER THE SOUTHERN MARITIMES SUNDAY AND SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
D. MARINE WEATHER
PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
21/06Z 220 175 100 175 120 90 60 90 100 75 45 55
21/18Z 220 175 100 175 120 90 60 90 100 75 45 55
22/06Z 220 175 100 175 120 90 60 90 100 75 45 55
22/18Z 205 180 105 175 105 90 60 90 75 50 30 35
23/06Z 215 195 120 165 110 100 65 85 70 55 30 30
23/18Z 225 215 135 145 120 115 75 70 65 60 20 20
24/06Z 235 260 145 125 130 130 85 60 45 45 5 5
24/18Z 240 260 150 120 145 145 90 60 0 0 0 0
25/06Z 240 260 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0
END HATT
WOCN31 CWHX 210600
Hurricane Bill information statement issued by the canadian
Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 3.00 AM ADT Friday
21 August 2009.
The next statement will be issued by 9.00 AM ADT
..Hurricane Bill to impact Atlantic Canada on Sunday...
1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion
At 3.00 AM ADT... Hurricane Bill was located near latitude 25.5 N
And longitude 64.9 W... About 410 nautical miles or 760 km south
Of Bermuda . Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 110 knots...
204 km/h... And central pressure at 943 MB. Bill is moving
North northwest at 16 knots... 30 km/h.
2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength
Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
ADT MB kts kmh
Aug 21 3.00 AM 25.5N 64.9W 943 110 204
Aug 21 3.00 PM 28.2N 66.8W 942 115 213
Aug 22 3.00 AM 31.3N 68.2W 942 115 213
Aug 22 3.00 PM 34.9N 68.6W 949 110 204
Aug 23 3.00 AM 39.0N 67.5W 961 100 185
Aug 23 3.00 PM 43.0N 64.0W 973 85 157
Aug 24 3.00 AM 46.3N 57.6W 983 70 130 post-tropical
Aug 24 3.00 PM 49.3N 48.5W 990 60 111 post-tropical
Aug 25 3.00 AM 52.5N 36.4W 994 55 102 post-tropical
3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary
At this point it is too early for warnings to be issued as Bill
remains well to our south.
Swell from hurricane Bill will arrive along the Atlantic coast
Of Nova Scotia early today. Swell heights near 2 m
Will generate rough surf and hazardous rip currents along some
beaches. Breaking wave heights on the shoreline are expected
To be from 2 to 3 m (7 to 10 feet) along the Atlantic coast of
Nova Scotia on Saturday. Residents are advised to exercise caution
where large waves break onshore.
Wave heights will further increase over Southern Nova Scotia and
Newfoundland Sunday and Sunday night as Bill moves northeastward.
Wave heights will be highest over areas south of Bill's track.
Given the current forecast track southwest facing shorelines
Over the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland appear to be most
vulnerable.
Above average water levels could be a coastal flooding threat
Over areas where Bill's track coincides with astronically high tides.
4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary
Given the current CHC track hurricane Bill is expected to begin
To impact maritime marine areas Saturday night and Newfoundland
marine areas Sunday night. Winds will rapidly increase on Sunday
Over southern maritime marine areas starting over southwestern
Areas. Over Southern Newfoundland waters winds will rapidly
Increase from west to east Sunday night and Monday. It
Appears very likely that hurricane and storm force winds will spread
over portions of the southern marine areas of the Maritimes and
Newfoundland as a result of Bill. However it is too early to issue
warnings.
5. Technical discussion for meteorologists
A. Analysis
Currently following nhc. Bill is a very large category 3 hurricane
with hurricane force winds extending up to 100 NM from the eye and
gales extending up to 220 NM from the eye.
B. Prognostic
Following nhc on intensity.
Bill is tracking northwestward south of Bermuda. Bill is expected
To begin a gradual turn north-northwest today and northward on
Saturday in response to a deep-layer trough forecast to move over
The Eastern United States and an upper-level ridge building
Over the Atlantic. On Sunday Bill will curve and accelerate
northeastward ahead of the trough. Track guidance is tightly
clustered for the first couple of days but then becomes divergent
On both direction and speed later in the forecast period.
Cyclone phase space diagrams indicate Bill will begin to undergo
extra-tropical transition on the 23rd and will be completed early
On the 24th.
C. Public weather
Heavy rain is very likely over portions of the Maritimes and
newfoundand on Sunday and early Monday. Strong winds are likely
Over the southern Maritimes Sunday and Southern Newfoundland
Sunday night and early Monday.
D. Marine weather
Predicted wind radii (NM)
Time gales storms hurricane
Ne se sw nw ne se sw nw ne se sw nw
21/06Z 220 175 100 175 120 90 60 90 100 75 45 55
21/18Z 220 175 100 175 120 90 60 90 100 75 45 55
22/06Z 220 175 100 175 120 90 60 90 100 75 45 55
22/18Z 205 180 105 175 105 90 60 90 75 50 30 35
23/06Z 215 195 120 165 110 100 65 85 70 55 30 30
23/18Z 225 215 135 145 120 115 75 70 65 60 20 20
24/06Z 230 260 145 125 130 130 85 60 45 45 5 5
24/18Z 240 260 150 120 145 145 90 60 0 0 0 0
25/06Z 240 260 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0
End hatt
WOCN31 CWHX 210600
HURRICANE BILL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 AM ADT FRIDAY
21 AUGUST 2009.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 AM ADT
..HURRICANE BILL TO IMPACT ATLANTIC CANADA ON SUNDAY...
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
AT 3.00 AM ADT... HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 N
AND LONGITUDE 64.9 W... ABOUT 410 NAUTICAL MILES OR 760 KM SOUTH
OF BERMUDA . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 110 KNOTS...
204 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 943 MB. BILL IS MOVING
NORTH NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS... 30 KM/H.
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
AUG 21 3.00 AM 25.5N 64.9W 943 110 204
AUG 21 3.00 PM 28.2N 66.8W 942 115 213
AUG 22 3.00 AM 31.3N 68.2W 942 115 213
AUG 22 3.00 PM 34.9N 68.6W 949 110 204
AUG 23 3.00 AM 39.0N 67.5W 961 100 185
AUG 23 3.00 PM 43.0N 64.0W 973 85 157
AUG 24 3.00 AM 46.3N 57.6W 983 70 130 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 24 3.00 PM 49.3N 48.5W 990 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 25 3.00 AM 52.5N 36.4W 994 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
AT THIS POINT IT IS TOO EARLY FOR WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED AS BILL
REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
SWELL FROM HURRICANE BILL WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF NOVA SCOTIA EARLY TODAY. SWELL HEIGHTS NEAR 2 M
WILL GENERATE ROUGH SURF AND HAZARDOUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG SOME
BEACHES. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE SHORELINE ARE EXPECTED
TO BE FROM 2 TO 3 M (7 TO 10 FEET) ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA ON SATURDAY. RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
WHERE LARGE WAVES BREAK ONSHORE.
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FURTHER INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA AND
NEWFOUNDLAND SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS BILL MOVES NORTHEASTWARD.
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE HIGHEST OVER AREAS SOUTH OF BILL'S TRACK.
GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK SOUTHWEST FACING SHORELINES
OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND APPEAR TO BE MOST
VULNERABLE.
ABOVE AVERAGE WATER LEVELS COULD BE A COASTAL FLOODING THREAT
OVER AREAS WHERE BILL'S TRACK COINCIDES WITH ASTRONICALLY HIGH TIDES.
4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
GIVEN THE CURRENT CHC TRACK HURRICANE BILL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
TO IMPACT MARITIME MARINE AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND NEWFOUNDLAND
MARINE AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE ON SUNDAY
OVER SOUTHERN MARITIME MARINE AREAS STARTING OVER SOUTHWESTERN
AREAS. OVER SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS WINDS WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IT
APPEARS VERY LIKELY THAT HURRICANE AND STORM FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN MARINE AREAS OF THE MARITIMES AND
NEWFOUNDLAND AS A RESULT OF BILL. HOWEVER IT IS TOO EARLY TO ISSUE
WARNINGS.
5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS
A. ANALYSIS
CURRENTLY FOLLOWING NHC. BILL IS A VERY LARGE CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE
WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM FROM THE EYE AND
GALES EXTENDING UP TO 220 NM FROM THE EYE.
B. PROGNOSTIC
FOLLOWING NHC ON INTENSITY.
BILL IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF BERMUDA. BILL IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN A GRADUAL TURN NORTH-NORTHWEST TODAY AND NORTHWARD ON
SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE ATLANTIC. ON SUNDAY BILL WILL CURVE AND ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS BUT THEN BECOMES DIVERGENT
ON BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS INDICATE BILL WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION ON THE 23RD AND WILL BE COMPLETED EARLY
ON THE 24TH.
C. PUBLIC WEATHER
HEAVY RAIN IS VERY LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARITIMES AND
NEWFOUNDAND ON SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY. STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY
OVER THE SOUTHERN MARITIMES SUNDAY AND SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
D. MARINE WEATHER
PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
21/06Z 220 175 100 175 120 90 60 90 100 75 45 55
21/18Z 220 175 100 175 120 90 60 90 100 75 45 55
22/06Z 220 175 100 175 120 90 60 90 100 75 45 55
22/18Z 205 180 105 175 105 90 60 90 75 50 30 35
23/06Z 215 195 120 165 110 100 65 85 70 55 30 30
23/18Z 225 215 135 145 120 115 75 70 65 60 20 20
24/06Z 230 260 145 125 130 130 85 60 45 45 5 5
24/18Z 240 260 150 120 145 145 90 60 0 0 0 0
25/06Z 240 260 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0
END HATT
WOCN31 CWHX 210000
Hurricane Bill information statement issued by the canadian
Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 9.00 PM ADT Thursday
20 August 2009.
The next statement will be issued by 3.00 AM ADT
...Hurricane Bill expected to impact Atlantic Canada on Sunday...
1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion
At 9.00 PM ADT... Hurricane Bill was located near latitude 24.4 N
And longitude 63.9 W... About 375 nautical miles or 690 km
North northeast of San Juan. Maximum sustained winds are
Estimated at 110 knots... 204 km/h... And central pressure at
948 MB. Bill is moving northwest at 16 knots... 30 km/h.
2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength
Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
ADT MB kts kmh
Aug 20 9.00 PM 24.4N 63.9W 948 110 204
Aug 21 9.00 AM 26.9N 65.9W 950 115 213
Aug 21 9.00 PM 29.6N 67.6W 948 115 213
Aug 22 9.00 AM 33.0N 68.7W 949 115 213
Aug 22 9.00 PM 36.8N 68.4W 955 110 204
Aug 23 9.00 AM 41.2N 66.5W 965 100 185 transitioning
Aug 23 9.00 PM 44.8N 61.5W 977 85 157 transitioning
Aug 24 9.00 AM 47.9N 53.7W 987 70 130 post-tropical
Aug 24 9.00 PM 50.8N 43.2W 993 60 111 post-tropical
Aug 25 9.00 AM 54.2N 29.5W 995 50 93 post-tropical
3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary
At this point it is too early for warnings to be issued as Bill
remains well to our south.
Swell from hurricane Bill will arrive along the Atlantic coast
Of Nova Scotia early Friday. By Saturday approaching swell heights
near 2 m will generate rough surf and hazardous rip currents along
some beaches. Breaking wave heights on the shoreline are expected
To be from 2 to 3 m (7 to 10 feet) along the Atlantic coast of
Nova Scotia on Saturday. Residents are advised to exercise caution
where large waves break onshore.
4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary
Given the current CHC track hurricane Bill is expected to impact
maritime marine areas later this weekend, however it is too early
To issue warnings.
5. Technical discussion for meteorologists
A. Analysis
Currently following nhc. Late this afternoon hurricane Bill has
Shown signs of deepening, with the eye becoming more symmetric on
conventional satellite imagery, and is near category 4 status on
The saffir-Simpson scale once again.
B. Prognostic
Following nhc on intensity.
Bill is tracking northwestward north of the leeward islands and
Is expected to continue on this path for the next day or two. After
that a deep-layer trough is forecast to move over the eastern
United States while an upper-level ridge builds over the Atlantic.
These two features will steer Bill northward and eventually
northeastward later in the forecast period. Track guidance is
Tightly clustered for the first couple of days but then becomes
divergent on both direction and speed later in the forecast period.
Cyclone phase space diagrams indicate Bill will begin to undergo
extra-tropical transition on the 23rd and will be completed early
On the 24th.
C. Public weather
Nothing to say at this point.
D. Marine weather
Predicted wind radii (NM)
Time gales storms hurricane
Ne se sw nw ne se sw nw ne se sw nw
21/00Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
21/12Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/00Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/12Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 40
23/00Z 210 185 110 175 105 95 60 90 75 55 30 30
23/12Z 225 210 130 160 115 110 70 80 70 60 30 30
24/00Z 225 225 140 130 125 125 85 65 60 60 15 15
24/12Z 235 235 150 120 140 140 90 60 30 30 0 0
25/00Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0
25/12Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0
End hatt/March/bowyer
WOCN31 CWHX 210000
HURRICANE BILL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT THURSDAY
20 AUGUST 2009.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT
...HURRICANE BILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT ATLANTIC CANADA ON SUNDAY...
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
AT 9.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 N
AND LONGITUDE 63.9 W... ABOUT 375 NAUTICAL MILES OR 690 KM
NORTH NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 110 KNOTS... 204 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
948 MB. BILL IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS... 30 KM/H.
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
AUG 20 9.00 PM 24.4N 63.9W 948 110 204
AUG 21 9.00 AM 26.9N 65.9W 950 115 213
AUG 21 9.00 PM 29.6N 67.6W 948 115 213
AUG 22 9.00 AM 33.0N 68.7W 949 115 213
AUG 22 9.00 PM 36.8N 68.4W 955 110 204
AUG 23 9.00 AM 41.2N 66.5W 965 100 185 TRANSITIONING
AUG 23 9.00 PM 44.8N 61.5W 977 85 157 TRANSITIONING
AUG 24 9.00 AM 47.9N 53.7W 987 70 130 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 24 9.00 PM 50.8N 43.2W 993 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 25 9.00 AM 54.2N 29.5W 995 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
AT THIS POINT IT IS TOO EARLY FOR WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED AS BILL
REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
SWELL FROM HURRICANE BILL WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF NOVA SCOTIA EARLY FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY APPROACHING SWELL HEIGHTS
NEAR 2 M WILL GENERATE ROUGH SURF AND HAZARDOUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG
SOME BEACHES. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE SHORELINE ARE EXPECTED
TO BE FROM 2 TO 3 M (7 TO 10 FEET) ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA ON SATURDAY. RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
WHERE LARGE WAVES BREAK ONSHORE.
4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
GIVEN THE CURRENT CHC TRACK HURRICANE BILL IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
MARITIME MARINE AREAS LATER THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER IT IS TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE WARNINGS.
5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS
A. ANALYSIS
CURRENTLY FOLLOWING NHC. LATE THIS AFTERNOON HURRICANE BILL HAS
SHOWN SIGNS OF DEEPENING, WITH THE EYE BECOMING MORE SYMMETRIC ON
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND IS NEAR CATEGORY 4 STATUS ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE ONCE AGAIN.
B. PROGNOSTIC
FOLLOWING NHC ON INTENSITY.
BILL IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS PATH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER
THAT A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ATLANTIC.
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL STEER BILL NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEASTWARD LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. TRACK GUIDANCE IS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS BUT THEN BECOMES
DIVERGENT ON BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS INDICATE BILL WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION ON THE 23RD AND WILL BE COMPLETED EARLY
ON THE 24TH.
C. PUBLIC WEATHER
NOTHING TO SAY AT THIS POINT.
D. MARINE WEATHER
PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
21/00Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
21/12Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/00Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/12Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 40
23/00Z 210 185 110 175 105 95 60 90 75 55 30 30
23/12Z 225 210 130 160 115 110 70 80 70 60 30 30
24/00Z 225 225 140 130 125 125 85 65 60 60 15 15
24/12Z 235 235 150 120 140 140 90 60 30 30 0 0
25/00Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0
25/12Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0
END HATT/MARCH/BOWYER
WOCN31 CWHX 201800 CCA
Hurricane Bill information statement issued by the canadian
Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 3.00 PM ADT Thursday
20 August 2009.
The next statement will be issued by 9.00 PM ADT
Correction to initial position and pressure.
...Hurricane Bill expected to impact Atlantic Canada on Sunday...
1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion
At 3.00 PM ADT... Hurricane Bill was located near latitude 23.2 N
And longitude 62.6 W... About 310 nautical miles or 575 km
North of st maarteen. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 105
Knots... 194 km/h... And central pressure at 951 MB. Bill is moving
Northwest at 16 knots... 30 km/h.
2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength
The latest track of hurricane Bill has the storm moving slightly
southeast of the previous position over Newfoundland. However
Given the fact track errors are somewhat large beyond day three
One should not focus on the exact path.
Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
ADT MB kts kmh
Aug 20 3.00 PM 23.2N 62.6W 951 105 194
Aug 21 3.00 AM 25.5N 65.0W 952 110 204
Aug 21 3.00 PM 28.2N 66.8W 948 115 213
Aug 22 3.00 AM 31.1N 68.4W 948 115 213
Aug 22 3.00 PM 34.8N 68.9W 950 115 213
Aug 23 3.00 AM 38.8N 67.9W 959 105 194 transitioning
Aug 23 3.00 PM 43.1N 64.7W 971 90 167 transitioning
Aug 24 3.00 AM 46.5N 58.3W 982 75 139 transitioning
Aug 24 3.00 PM 49.3N 49.1W 991 60 111 post-tropical
Aug 25 3.00 AM 52.2N 37.2W 994 55 102 post-tropical
3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary
At this point it is too early for warnings to be issued as Bill
remains well to our south.
Swell from hurricane Bill will arrive along the Atlantic coast
Of Nova Scotia early Friday. By Saturday approaching swell heights
near 2 m will generate rough surf and hazardous rip currents along
some beaches. Breaking wave heights on the shoreline are expected
To be from 2 to 3 m (7 to 10 feet) along the Atlantic coast of
Nova Scotia on Saturday. Residents are advised to exercise caution
where large waves break onshore.
4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary
Given the current CHC track hurricane Bill is expected to impact
maritime marine areas later this weekend, however it is too early
To issue warnings.
5. Technical discussion for meteorologists
A. Analysis
Currently following nhc.
B. Prognostic
Following nhc on both track and intensity.
Bill is tracking northwestward north of the leeward islands and
Is expected to continue on this path for the next day or two. After
that a deep-layer trough is forecast to move over the eastern
United States while an upper-level ridge builds over the Atlantic.
These two features will steer Bill northward and eventually
northeastward later in the forecast period. Track guidance is
Tightly clustered for the first couple of days but then becomes
divergent on both direction and speed later in the forecast period.
Cyclone phase space diagrams indicate Bill will begin to undergo
extra-tropical transition on the 23rd and will be completed early
On the 24th.
C. Public weather
Nothing to say at this point.
D. Marine weather
Predicted wind radii (NM)
Time gales storms hurricane
Ne se sw nw ne se sw nw ne se sw nw
20/18Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
21/06Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
21/18Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/06Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/18Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 50 30 35
23/06Z 225 200 125 175 110 105 65 90 75 60 30 30
23/18Z 225 225 135 145 120 120 80 75 65 60 30 30
24/06Z 230 230 150 120 135 135 90 60 60 60 0 0
24/18Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0
25/06Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0
End March/bowyer
WOCN31 CWHX 201800 CCA
HURRICANE BILL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT THURSDAY
20 AUGUST 2009.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT
CORRECTION TO INITIAL POSITION AND PRESSURE.
...HURRICANE BILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT ATLANTIC CANADA ON SUNDAY...
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
AT 3.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 N
AND LONGITUDE 62.6 W... ABOUT 310 NAUTICAL MILES OR 575 KM
NORTH OF ST MAARTEEN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 105
KNOTS... 194 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 951 MB. BILL IS MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS... 30 KM/H.
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
THE LATEST TRACK OF HURRICANE BILL HAS THE STORM MOVING SLIGHTLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION OVER NEWFOUNDLAND. HOWEVER
GIVEN THE FACT TRACK ERRORS ARE SOMEWHAT LARGE BEYOND DAY THREE
ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT PATH.
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
AUG 20 3.00 PM 23.2N 62.6W 951 105 194
AUG 21 3.00 AM 25.5N 65.0W 952 110 204
AUG 21 3.00 PM 28.2N 66.8W 948 115 213
AUG 22 3.00 AM 31.1N 68.4W 948 115 213
AUG 22 3.00 PM 34.8N 68.9W 950 115 213
AUG 23 3.00 AM 38.8N 67.9W 959 105 194 TRANSITIONING
AUG 23 3.00 PM 43.1N 64.7W 971 90 167 TRANSITIONING
AUG 24 3.00 AM 46.5N 58.3W 982 75 139 TRANSITIONING
AUG 24 3.00 PM 49.3N 49.1W 991 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 25 3.00 AM 52.2N 37.2W 994 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
AT THIS POINT IT IS TOO EARLY FOR WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED AS BILL
REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
SWELL FROM HURRICANE BILL WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF NOVA SCOTIA EARLY FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY APPROACHING SWELL HEIGHTS
NEAR 2 M WILL GENERATE ROUGH SURF AND HAZARDOUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG
SOME BEACHES. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE SHORELINE ARE EXPECTED
TO BE FROM 2 TO 3 M (7 TO 10 FEET) ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA ON SATURDAY. RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
WHERE LARGE WAVES BREAK ONSHORE.
4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
GIVEN THE CURRENT CHC TRACK HURRICANE BILL IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
MARITIME MARINE AREAS LATER THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER IT IS TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE WARNINGS.
5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS
A. ANALYSIS
CURRENTLY FOLLOWING NHC.
B. PROGNOSTIC
FOLLOWING NHC ON BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY.
BILL IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS PATH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER
THAT A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ATLANTIC.
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL STEER BILL NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEASTWARD LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. TRACK GUIDANCE IS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS BUT THEN BECOMES
DIVERGENT ON BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS INDICATE BILL WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION ON THE 23RD AND WILL BE COMPLETED EARLY
ON THE 24TH.
C. PUBLIC WEATHER
NOTHING TO SAY AT THIS POINT.
D. MARINE WEATHER
PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
20/18Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
21/06Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
21/18Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/06Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/18Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 50 30 35
23/06Z 225 200 125 175 110 105 65 90 75 60 30 30
23/18Z 225 225 135 145 120 120 80 75 65 60 30 30
24/06Z 230 230 150 120 135 135 90 60 60 60 0 0
24/18Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0
25/06Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0
END MARCH/BOWYER
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
WTNT33 KNHC 211135
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
800 AM AST FRI AUG 21 2009
...BILL BECOMES A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
BERMUDA.
INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST OR ABOUT 385 MILES...
620 KM...SOUTH OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 820 MILES...1320 KM...SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO PASS BETWEEN
BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT BILL HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED...SOME SLIGHT
RESTRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE LATER TODAY FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WEAKENING ON SATURDAY.
BILL IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.
BILL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER BERMUDA...WITH POSSIBLY SOME AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES.
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
BERMUDA COASTLINE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO DUE TO LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BREAKING WAVES GENERATED BY THE HURRICANE.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE ARE AFFECTING PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...AND BERMUDA...AND SHOULD BEGIN
AFFECTING MOST OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF
CANADA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. THE
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC REPORTED SOME
COASTAL FLOODING WITH DAMAGE TO ROADS AND HOUSES DUE TO HIGH WAVES
ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
...SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...26.8N 65.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
