WTNT33 KNHC 220249
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Hurricane Henri Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT THAT HENRI IS MOVING NORTHWARD
TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND...
...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HURRICANE CONDITIONS, AND FLOODING
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.6N 71.0W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSE OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM S OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New
York
* North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York
* Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic New York
* North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Cape Cod Bay
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point
* North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk
Point
* New Haven Connecticut to west of Westport Massachusetts
* Block Island
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut
* South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East
Rockaway Inlet
* Westport Massachusetts to Chatham Massachusetts, including
Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket
* Coastal New York and New Jersey west of East Rockaway Inlet to
Manasquan Inlet, including New York City
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. should monitor the
progress of Henri.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Henri was located
near latitude 38.6 North, longitude 71.0 West. Henri is moving
toward the north near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is expected
to continue through tonight. A decrease in forward speed and a
turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Sunday. On the
forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall in southern New
England or on Long Island on Sunday. After landfall, a turn to the
north and a slower forward speed are expected as Henri moves over
southern New England.
Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible tonight.
Weakening is expected on Sunday. However, Henri is expected to be at
or near hurricane strength when it reaches the coasts of southern
New England and Long island. Rapid weakening is expected after
Henri makes landfall.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).
The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 987 mb (29.15 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards
Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft
North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY
including Long Island Sound...3-5 ft
South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point,
NY...3-5 ft
Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft
South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach,
NY...2-4 ft
Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft
Sagamore Beach, MA to Merrimack River including Massachusetts
Bay...1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions expected by late
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical
storm warning area late tonight and Sunday.
RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New
York, and New Jersey Sunday into Monday, with isolated maximum
totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result in
considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the
potential for widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding.
TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday over southern New
England.
SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda
during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across
much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today
and Sunday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Beven
000
WTNT43 KNHC 220249
TCDAT3
Hurricane Henri Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021
The convective pattern associated with Henri is less ragged than it
was 6 h ago, as the convection has increased near the center and a
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported a 25 n mi wide eye has
formed However, the hurricane has not yet strengthened
significantly, as the maximum winds remain about 65 kt in the
southeastern eyewall and the central pressure is near 987 mb.
Henri has moved a little to the right of the previous track at
18-20 kt during the past several hours. However, the cyclone now
seems to be moving northward with an initial motion of 355/18 kt.
There is no change to the forecast track philosophy. A cut-off
low located over the central Appalachians and a ridge building to
the east and northeast of Henri should cause the storm to move
generally northward tonight. A turn toward the north-northwest and
a slower forward speed are expected on Sunday, which should bring
the center near or over southern New England or Long Island between
18-24 h. With the more eastward initial position, the forecast
track is shifted a bit to the east of the previous forecast.
However, there is still some uncertainty of the landfall point, as
several of the guidance models are to the left of the official
forecast. After landfall, Henri should slow its forward speed and
turn eastward as it become steered by the mid-latitude westerlies.
Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, as the
average 24-hour track uncertainty is around 40 miles and impacts
will extend well away from the center.
Henri is almost out of time to strengthen, as the center will be
moving north of the north wall of the Gulf Stream during the next
several hours. The intensity forecast will call for modest
strengthening during the first 12 h based on the premise that
strengthening will occur before Henri reaches the cooler waters.
After that, while the cyclone should start to weaken before
landfall, it should still be near or at hurricane strength when it
reaches southern New England. Rapid weakening is expected after
landfall, and Henri is again forecast to become post-tropical in
about 48 hours and dissipate in 3 to 4 days.
Key Messages:
1. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected to begin late
tonight or Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode
Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge Warning
has been issued. Residents in these areas should follow any advice
given by local officials.
2. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin late tonight or
Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, and Rhode Island,
where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions
will begin in these areas late tonight.
3. Heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, and small
stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor to
isolated moderate river flooding over portions of Long Island, New
England, eastern New York and New Jersey.
4. Swells from Henri will continue to affect much of the east coast
of the U.S. during the next day or two. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0300Z 38.6N 71.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 40.3N 71.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 41.9N 71.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
36H 23/1200Z 43.1N 71.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 24/0000Z 43.9N 70.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 24/1200Z 44.4N 68.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 25/0000Z 44.8N 63.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
000
FXUS61 KCAR 220110
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
910 PM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds across the Maritimes into Sunday. Henri
will approach southern New England tonight and move onshore in
southern New England late Sunday. Henri will dissipate while it
tracks across our region Monday into Tuesday. High pressure
will build over the area Wednesday. Low pressure approaches the
area on Thursday......
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
By 00z Sunday, Hurricane Henri will be over southern New
England, slowing down in forward speed as it pushes further
inland. A plume of moisture out ahead of the system will lead to
humid conditions across our forecast area Sunday night into
Monday, with dewpoints in the 60s and PWATs surging above 2
inches. All of this moisture will support showers ahead of
Henri, which will move into the Downeast region Sunday evening.
Patchy fog will be possible across the forecast area Sunday
night into early Monday morning due to the abundant moisture.
After stalling over southern New England, Henri will begin to
push eastward as the subtropical ridge strengthens on Monday. As
the weakened system begins to approach our region, showers will
increase in number from south to north across the forecast area.
Winds will remain relatively light through the day on Monday,
especially as a persistent marine layer reaching up to Dover-
Foxcroft and Lincoln will provide enough stability to keep
higher winds from mixing towards the surface.
What remains of Henri will pass to the south on Tuesday,
clearing off into the Canadian Maritimes. Showers will remain
across the forecast area as the low passes, with the highest
rainfall accumulations concentrated along the coast with up to
an additional inch possible.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Skies will finally clear Tuesday night into Wednesday, but the
lack of rain will not equate to a lack in moisture. A warm,
humid airmass will remain through mid-week. Lingering moisture
and diurnal heating will result in the chance for convective
showers, especially Thursday afternoon. It will take a cold
front Thursday night to clear the humidity and bring drier
conditions across the entire forecast area. This cold front will
be our next chance for widespread rain. Drier weather is
expected heading into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
VFR across the northern terminals to gradually drop back to MVFR
later tonight and then could go down to IFR by early morning on
Sunday. MVFR for KBGR/KBHB this evening dropping to IFR/LIFR
overnight with dense fog possible at times at KBHB through mid
morning Sunday. ESE wind < 10 kt.
For Sunday, IFR/MVFR for all terminals in the morning
w/improvement across the northern terminals
to VFR by mid morning. KBGR and KBHB will see a gradual
improvement to MVFR by late morning. ESE winds 10 kts.
SHORT TERM:
Sun night - Tues...MVFR/IFR likely across southern terminals
with the approach of Hurricane Henri. Northern terminals will
fall to MVFR overnight Sunday night as showers move northwards.
Light SE winds will shift S to SW on Tuesday.
Tues night - Wed night...VFR across all terminals. Light W
winds.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
Seas are expected to gradually build for this term reaching 5-7
ft by Sunday afternoon w/12-14 second periods leading to large
swells. ESE winds increasing to 10-15 kt w/gusts 20-25 kt later
in the day over the outer zones. In collaboration with WFO Gray
have issued a SCA starting Sunday morning for the coastal marine
zones.
SHORT TERM: Seas will range from 6 to 8 feet late Sunday into
Mon morning before dropping below SCA levels Mon night. Remnants
of Hurricane Henri will cross the waters late Monday night into
Tuesday. Brief wind gusts approaching 25kts during the period.
Visibilities will be reduced in fog as humid air remains over
the water through the end of the week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
High astronomical tides and TS Henri may bring minor coastal
flooding issues around the time of high tide Sunday night and
Monday night around midnight. Attm, given the latest setup,
some minor splash over is possible, but w/the long period
swells, and high surf, the risk of rip currents and big breakers
hitting the coast could be an issue.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT Sunday for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Monday for
ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
Near Term...CB/Hewitt
Short Term...AStrauser
Long Term...AStrauser
Aviation...CB/Hewitt/AStrauser
Marine...CB/Hewitt/AStrauser
Tides/Coastal Flooding...Farrar/Hewitt/CB
8:33 PM ADT Saturday 21 August 2021
Tropical cyclone information statement for:
Nova Scotia
FOR HURRICANE HENRI.
THE NEXT INFORMATION STATEMENT IS SCHEDULED FOR 03:00 A.M. ADT.
Hurricane Henri has its sight set on southern New England.
1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 09:00 P.M. ADT.
LOCATION: NEAR 37.3 NORTH 71.2 WEST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 120 KILOMETRES PER HOUR.
PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTH AT 28 KILOMETRES PER HOUR.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 MILLIBARS.
2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS.
Hurricane Henri will begin to slow down this evening on its northward trek towards southern New England, where the worst conditions are expected. As it approaches Long Island, it will move over cooler water and begin to deteriorate gradually. Once it makes landfall in New England it is expected to weaken rapidly. The current forecast guidance continues to indicate that some remnant moisture from Henri will cross the southern Maritimes early in the new week.
The storm is unlikely to affect weather in the Maritimes until Monday, and at this stage it may simply bring light to moderate rainfall. No significant wind is expected over Maritimes land areas at this time.
3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS.
Long period swell up to 2 metres will develop along the South Shore of Nova Scotia on Sunday. Waves could potentially break higher along parts of the coast. Ocean waves of 3 to 5 metres are expected over marine regions south and west of Nova Scotia Sunday.
Please check for updates regularly from the CHC at www.hurricanes.ca and our twitter feed @ECCC_CHC.
FORECASTER(S): CLEMENTS/COUTURIER/MERCER
Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.
For more comprehensive information about track tables and forecast rationale, please see the Technical Discussion
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Caribou ME
842 PM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021
MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-031-032-230045-
Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-
Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-
Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-
Interior Hancock-Central Washington-Southern Piscataquis-
Northern Washington-
842 PM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Highlands Maine, Far
Eastern Maine, Far Northern Maine, Interior DownEast Maine, North
Woods Maine and Penobscot Valley Maine.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
For Monday into Tuesday, there is still some uncertainty in regards
to Henri`s track toward the New England region. Stay up to date on
the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.
$$
