Thursday, July 03, 2014

Here comes Hurricane Arthur (Cat. 2) Update One






















000
WTNT41 KNHC 040301
TCDAT1

HURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014
1100 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014

The eye of Arthur is about to make landfall near Cape Lookout,
North Carolina.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
reported 700-mb flight-level winds of 94 kt and SFMR winds of 79 kt
in the southeastern eyewall.  The lowest reported central pressure
was 976 mb.  Based on these data, the initial intensity was
increased to 85 kt.  Coastal radar data indicates a well-defined
20-25 n mi diameter eye is present, and the eye is also apparent in
infrared satellite imagery.

Arthur is accelerating toward the northeast due to the approach of
a baroclinic trough over the northeastern United states, and the
initial motion is now 035/16.  A continued northeastward motion and
acceleration are expected during the next 24-36 hours.  The
forecast track calls for the center to cross coastal North Carolina
during the next several hours, pass southeast of New England in
about 24 hours, and be near or over western Nova Scotia in about 36
hours.  After that, the westerlies are expected to steer Arthur or
its remnants across Newfoundland into the North Atlantic.  The
forecast track is similar to the previous track and lies near the
center of the guidance envelope for the first 72 hours.

Little change in strength is expected during the next 12 hours
as the eye of the hurricane crosses coastal North Carolina and the
adjacent northwestern Atlantic.  After that, Arthur is expected to
undergo extratropical transition, which is forecast to be complete
by the time the cyclone reaches Nova Scotia.  After passing Nova
Scotia, a post-tropical Arthur should weaken rapidly over the
North Atlantic.

The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is
available at: www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 34.6N  76.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
12H  04/1200Z 36.7N  74.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
24H  05/0000Z 40.0N  70.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
36H  05/1200Z 43.7N  66.1W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H  06/0000Z 46.2N  62.6W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H  07/0000Z 51.5N  54.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  08/0000Z 57.5N  44.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  09/0000Z 60.0N  35.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

12:03 AM ADT Friday 04 July 2014
Tropical storm watch in effect for:
  • Queens County P.E.I.
Tropical storm conditions possible - early morning Saturday to evening Saturday.

Tropical storm-force winds of possible 60 gusting to 90 km/h over exposed areas from Hurricane Arthur may occur over the above regions.

Arthur is expected to be a strong post-tropical storm when it affects the Maritimes Saturday. Areas within the watch areas could see winds gusting to 90 km/h with some areas seeing higher gusts.

Forecaster Hatt.
A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds near 65 km/h or more) are possible over parts of the region within 36 hours.

By nature a tropical storm also implies the threat of local flooding from heavy rainfall - consult your local area forecast for possible rainfall warnings.
 
12:03 AM ADT Friday 04 July 2014
Tropical storm watch in effect for:
  • Halifax Metro and Halifax County West
Tropical storm conditions possible - early morning Saturday to evening Saturday.

Tropical storm-force winds of possible 60 gusting to 90 km/h over exposed areas from Hurricane Arthur may occur over the above regions.

Arthur is expected to be a strong post-tropical storm when it affects the Maritimes Saturday. Areas within the watch areas could see winds gusting to 90 km/h with some areas seeing higher gusts.

Forecaster Hatt.
A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds near 65 km/h or more) are possible over parts of the region within 36 hours.

By nature a tropical storm also implies the threat of local flooding from heavy rainfall - consult your local area forecast for possible rainfall warnings.
 
12:03 AM ADT Friday 04 July 2014
Tropical storm watch in effect for:
  • Moncton and Southeast New Brunswick
Tropical storm conditions possible - early morning Saturday to evening Saturday.

Tropical storm-force winds of possible 60 gusting to 90 km/h over exposed areas from Hurricane Arthur may occur over the above regions.

Arthur is expected to be a strong post-tropical storm when it affects the Maritimes Saturday. Areas within the watch areas could see winds gusting to 90 km/h with some areas seeing higher gusts.

Forecaster Hatt.
A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds near 65 km/h or more) are possible over parts of the region within 36 hours.

By nature a tropical storm also implies the threat of local flooding from heavy rainfall - consult your local area forecast for possible rainfall warnings.

8:45 PM ADT Thursday 03 July 2014
Tropical cyclone information statement for:
NEW BRUNSWICK
NEWFOUNDLAND
NOVA SCOTIA
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
For hurricane Arthur.

The next statement will be issued by 3:00 AM ADT.

Arthur and front to combine giving wind and rain to Atlantic Canada this weekend.
1. Summary of basic information at 9.00 PM ADT.

Location: 33.7 north 77.7 west.

About 260 kilometres southwest of Cape Hatteras.

Maximum sustained winds: 150 km/h.

Present movement: northeast near 20 km/h.

Minimum central pressure: 979 MB.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

Tropical storm watches are in effect for the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia. Additional watches or warnings may be issued overnight tonight.

Hurricane Arthur is moving northeastward not far off the U.S. East Coast. A trough of low pressure will be moving eastward from the Great Lakes, guiding Arthur toward Atlantic Canada. The nature of the trough approaching from the Great Lakes will make all the difference in Arthur's intensity, track and structure as it moves toward our region.

Landfall of Arthur may occur in the vicinity of Western Nova Scotia to the Fundy coast of New Brunswick Saturday morning. It is very likely that high wind and heavy rain will affect the Maritimes on Saturday. The details of the public impacts will be assessed further tonight.

The public should certainly pay close attention regarding weekend plans that may be sensitive to high wind and heavy rain conditions. It is emphasized that updated forecasts should be consulted for the latest forecast decisions and rationale. These are issued four times daily.

As usual, the track map forecast implies detailed location and storm intensity however there is still considerable uncertainty.

A. Wind.

Significant wind is possible for portions of Atlantic Canada this weekend especially for regions to the south and east of the storm track. Strong wind gusts could exceed 100 km/h to the right of the track on Saturday. It is too early to confidently say where in Atlantic Canada these strongest winds will be, however Atlantic coastal Nova Scotia regions are currently more likely to experience the windier side of the storm.

B. Rainfall.

Arthur will spread rain throughout Atlantic Canada during the weekend where significant rainfall amounts are likely. The area of rain will reach the southern Maritimes early Saturday and then spread to Newfoundland overnight Saturday to Sunday morning. Details in the nature of the interaction of the cold front with Arthur as well as the exact track will determine where the highest rainfall amounts will occur. At the moment general amounts of 50 to 100 millimetres are likely with a good probability of higher amounts near and to the left of Arthur's track. New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island have a higher risk of receiving the heaviest rainfall. The rainfall rates are of particular concern since they could exceed 15 millimetres per hour during a period of several hours.

C. Surge/waves.

Storm surge and large waves are possible with Arthur. High waves and pounding surf can be expected along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia Saturday morning and afternoon with the arrival of storm. High waves are also expected along the Southern Gulf of St Lawrence coastlines Saturday afternoon and evening.

High water levels at the coast could be an issue if the arrival of Arthur coincides with high tide. This timing will be assessed further as we get closer to the storm's arrival. Storm surge warnings may be required for Southeastern New Brunswick, the Northumberland Strait and parts of the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Gale warnings have been issued for southwestern marine waters with the approach of Arthur Friday night. These gales will be expanded to other marine areas for Saturday. Storm warnings and possibly hurricane warnings could be required for portions of the Atlantic Canadian marine district. These warnings would be issued at 3.00 AM Friday.

Mariners should remain on alert and stay tuned for forecast updates.

Visit weather.gc.ca/hurricane (all in lower case) for the latest:

- forecast position, central pressure table.

- strength and predicted wind radii table.

- hurricane track information map.

- technical discussion.

Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings issued by Environment Canada for your area.
Forecaster(s): couturier/fogarty/hatt

Here comes Hurricane Arthur

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
337 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

MEZ029-030-040345-
/O.NEW.KCAR.SU.Y.0002.140705T1200Z-140705T2000Z/
COASTAL HANCOCK-COASTAL WASHINGTON-
337 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CARIBOU HAS ISSUED A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM EDT SATURDAY.

* SURF HEIGHT...9 TO 12 FEET.

* IMPACTS...INCREASED RISK OF BEACH EROSION AND DANGEROUS RIP
  CURRENTS AS WELL AS HIGHER THAN NORMAL WAVE ACTION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE ARE ALSO URGED TO REMAIN A SAFE DISTANCE FROM ROCKS...SEA
WALLS OR JETTIES. THE SIZE OF THE INCOMING WAVES WILL VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT PERIODS OF TIME AND IF CAUGHT IN A WAVE YOU
COULD BE UNEXPECTEDLY WASHED INTO THE OCEAN.

&&

$$

HEWITT

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
358 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY ...

.TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THIS STORM WILL GENERATE HIGH SURF
ALONG THE OCEAN BEACHES OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. ADDITIONALLY
LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL RESULT IN INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK.

MEZ023>028-NHZ014-040800-
/O.NEW.KGYX.SU.Y.0002.140705T1200Z-140705T2000Z/
COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-
COASTAL WALDO-COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
358 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY HAS ISSUED A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM EDT SATURDAY.

* LOCATION...OCEAN BEACHES IN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.

* SURF HEIGHT... 5 TO 8 FEET.

* TIMING... HIGHEST SURF WILL BE SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS... RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF WILL MAKE BEACHES
  HAZARDOUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE DANGEROUS SURF WILL MAKE THE BEACH
HAZARDOUS. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS AND THE BEACH PATROL. PAY
ATTENTION TO FLAGS AND POSTED SIGNS. BREAKING WAVES CAN BE MUCH
LARGER THAN THEIR HEIGHTS IN DEEP WATER. WATER FROM LARGE BREAKING
WAVES CAN QUICKLY RUSH UP THE BEACH...SWEEP PEOPLE OFF OF THEIR
FEET...AND DRAG THEM INTO THE WATER. PEOPLE VIEWING THE OCEAN FROM
JETTIES...ROCK WALLS...AND OTHER AREAS NEAR THE SURF ZONE ARE
ESPECIALLY AT RISK. FALLING INTO THE TURBULENT AND SOMETIMES ROCKY
WATERS CAN RESULT IN INJURY THAT REDUCES THE CHANCE OF SURVIVAL.


&&

$$3:56 PM ADT Thursday 03 July 2014
Special weather statement in effect for:
  • Fredericton and Southern York County
Warm and humid Friday and heavy rainfall for Saturday.
The warm moist airmass that has given humidex values in the high 30S and low 40S will persist over southern portions of New Brunswick on Friday. Temperatures will moderate in the north, however humidex values are likely to reach the high 30S again Friday in the south.

Hurricane Arthur continues to strengthen as it approaches the mid-Atlantic coast of the United States today. Arthur will move northeastward and merge with a cold front while moving across Atlantic Canada on Friday. The combined system will bring heavy rain and strong winds to New Brunswick on Saturday.

At the moment general amounts of 50 to 100 millimetres are likely with a good probability of higher amounts near and to the left of the track of the system. Southern portions of New Brunswick and much of Prince Edward Island are at a higher risk of receiving the heaviest rainfall. Some areas could see rainfall rates in excess of 15 millimetres per hour for a period of several hours.
The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as warnings may be required or extended.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca.
 
:01 PM ADT Thursday 03 July 2014
Special weather statement in effect for:
  • Queens County P.E.I.
Warm and humid conditions Friday. Heavy rain and strong winds Saturday.
A warm and humid airmass over the Maritimes will result in humidex values exceeding the mid-thirties over inland areas of the province again Friday. The public is advised to drink plenty of water and stay hydrated if spending long periods of time outdoors.

Meanwhile, hurricane Arthur continues to strengthen as it approaches the mid-Atlantic coast of the United States today. Arthur will move northeastward and merge with a cold front while moving across Atlantic Canada this weekend. The combined system will bring heavy rain and strong winds to Prince Edward Island on Saturday.

At the moment general amounts of 50 to 100 millimetres are likely with a good probability of higher amounts near and to the left of the track of the system. Southern portions of New Brunswick and much of Prince Edward Island are at a higher risk of receiving the heaviest rainfall. Some areas could see rainfall rates in excess of 15 millimetres per hour for a period of several hours.

Additionally, strong winds are expected to develop Saturday and persist until Sunday morning as the system tracks through the region.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca.
The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as warnings may be required or extended.
 
2:51 PM ADT Thursday 03 July 2014
Tropical storm watch in effect for:
  • Halifax Metro and Halifax County West
Tropical storm conditions possible - early morning Saturday to evening Saturday.

Tropical storm-force winds of possible 60 gusting to 90 km/h over exposed areas from Hurricane Arthur may occur over the above regions.

Arthur is expected to be a strong post-tropical storm when it affects the Maritimes Saturday.

Forecaster Fogarty.
A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds near 65 km/h or more) are possible over parts of the region within 36 hours.

By nature a tropical storm also implies the threat of local flooding from heavy rainfall - consult your local area forecast for possible rainfall warnings.

Flash Flood Watch in effect for SW Maine

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
303 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

...THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING TODAY...

.A VERY HUMID AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
MAINE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
WHICH MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

MEZ012>014-018>028-NHZ003>010-013-014-031515-
/O.CON.KGYX.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-140704T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SOUTHERN OXFORD-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-
INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-
COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-
COASTAL WALDO-NORTHERN GRAFTON-NORTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-
SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-STRAFFORD-
INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RUMFORD...NORWAY...FRYEBURG...OXFORD...
FARMINGTON...WILTON...MADISON...SKOWHEGAN...PITTSFIELD...
SANFORD...BERWICK...NORTH WINDHAM...GORHAM...BRIDGTON...
LEWISTON-AUBURN...LIVERMORE FALLS...AUGUSTA...WATERVILLE...
WINTERPORT...UNITY...BIDDEFORD...SACO...OLD ORCHARD BEACH...
KITTERY...PORTLAND...SOUTH PORTLAND...WESTBROOK...BATH...
TOPSHAM...BOOTHBAY HARBOR...WISCASSET...WALDOBORO...CAMDEN...
ROCKLAND...THOMASTON...BELFAST...LINCOLNVILLE...LITTLETON...
NORTH CONWAY...LEBANON...HANOVER...PLYMOUTH...WOLFEBORO...
OSSIPEE...CLAREMONT...NEWPORT...CHARLESTOWN...CONCORD...
HOOKSETT...LACONIA...MEREDITH...ROCHESTER...DOVER...SALEM...
DERRY...EXETER...PORTSMOUTH...HAMPTON
303 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE...INCLUDING THE
  FOLLOWING AREAS...IN WESTERN MAINE...ANDROSCOGGIN...COASTAL
  CUMBERLAND...COASTAL WALDO...COASTAL YORK...INTERIOR
  CUMBERLAND...INTERIOR WALDO...INTERIOR YORK...KENNEBEC...
  KNOX...LINCOLN...SAGADAHOC...SOUTHERN FRANKLIN...SOUTHERN
  OXFORD AND SOUTHERN SOMERSET. IN NEW HAMPSHIRE...BELKNAP...
  COASTAL ROCKINGHAM...INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM...MERRIMACK...
  NORTHERN CARROLL...NORTHERN GRAFTON...SOUTHERN CARROLL...
  SOUTHERN GRAFTON...STRAFFORD AND SULLIVAN.

* THROUGH THIS EVENING

* THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF
  1 INCH PER HOUR.

* RAPID WATER RISES ON CREEKS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS ARE
  POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&
$$

Heat Warnings & Advisories in effect for the Maritimes, Day Three

10:43 AM ADT Thursday 03 July 2014
Heat Warning in effect for:
  • Fredericton and Southern York County
Heat conditions - late morning to late afternoon.

A warm and humid airmass persisting over the Maritimes will result in humidex values reaching and possibly exceeding 40 during the afternoon over most of the province with the exception of the Fundy coast where onshore southwesterly winds will maintain cooler temperatures.
While extreme heat can put everyone at risk from heat illnesses, health risks are greatest for
- older adults
- infants and young children
- people with chronic illnesses such as breathing difficulties, heart conditions or psychiatric illnesses
- people who work in the heat
- people who exercise in the heat
- people without access to air conditioning and
- homeless people.

Drink plenty of liquids especially water before you feel thirsty to decrease your risk of dehydration. Thirst is not a good indicator of dehydration.

Heat warnings are issued when very high temperature or humidity conditions are expected to pose an elevated risk of heat illnesses, such as heat stroke or heat exhaustion.

Environment Canada meteorologists will update alerts as required. Stay up to date with Weatheradio or your local media. Email reports of severe weather to weatherASPC@ec.gc.ca or call 1-877-815-9900. You may tweet reports using the hashtag #NBStorm.
 
10:45 AM ADT Thursday 03 July 2014
Special weather statement in effect for:
  • Queens County P.E.I.
Warm and humid conditions continue.
A warm and humid airmass over the Maritimes will result in humidex values exceeding the mid-thirties over inland areas of the province again today.

The public is advised to drink plenty of water and stay hydrated if spending long periods of time outdoors.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca.
The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as warnings may be required or extended.
 
10:45 AM ADT Thursday 03 July 2014
Special weather statement in effect for:
  • Halifax Metro and Halifax County West
Warm and humid conditions continue.
A warm and humid airmass over the Maritimes will result in humidex values exceeding the mid-thirties over inland areas of Nova Scotia again today. Areas along the Atlantic coast will remain much cooler today.

The public is advised to drink plenty of water and stay hydrated if spending long periods of time outdoors.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca.
The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as warnings may be required or extended.

Fourth consecutive Heatwave Day 07/02/2014

New Brunswick

Charlo

Max: 32.6°C
Min: 23.2°C

Bathurst Airport

Max: 34.7°C
Min: 21.5°C

Miscou Island

Max: 32.5°C
Min: 20.4°C

Miramichi

Max: 34.5°C
Min: 19.9°C

Fredericton Int'l Airport

Max: 33.9°C
Min: 17.6°C

St. Stephen

Max: 34.0°C
Min: 16.3°C

Maine

Caribou

Max: 91°F/32.8°C*
Min: 71°F/21.7°C

Millinocket

Max: 94°F/34.4°C*
Min: 69°F/20.5°C

Houlton

Max: 93°F/33.9°C
Min: 69°C/20.5°C

* Denotes a record for the date.