Nicole Now A Tropical Depression Heads North After Making Landfall (As A Category 1 Hurricane) In Florida

000

WTNT32 KNHC 110244

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

Tropical Depression Nicole Advisory Number  16

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172022

1000 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

...NICOLE WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION BUT CONTINUES BRINGING HEAVY

RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...30.7N 84.3W

ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM N OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Warnings have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nicole

was located near latitude 30.7 North, longitude 84.3 West.  The

depression is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h),

and a turn toward the north is forecast overnight.  Nicole is

expected to accelerate north-northeastward on Friday.  On the

forecast track, the center of Nicole will move into southwestern

Georgia later tonight and Friday, and across the western

Carolinas later on Friday,

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)

with higher gusts.  Additional weakening is forecast during the

next day or so, and Nicole is expected to become a post-tropical 

cyclone on Friday.  The system is expected to dissipate as it 

merges with a frontal boundary over the eastern United States by 

Friday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,

and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will

cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising

waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the

following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if

the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida to the Savannah River,

including the St. Johns River...1 to 3 ft

* Anclote River to Ochlockonee River...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the

surge will be accompanied by large waves.  Surge-related flooding

depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and

can vary greatly over short distances.  For information specific to

your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather

Service forecast office.

RAINFALL:  Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall

amounts through Saturday:

* Eastern Florida Panhandle and Florida Big Bend into the

Southeast, southern and central Appalachians, central and eastern

portions of Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio: 2 to 4 inches with local

maxima of 6 to 8 inches along the Blue Ridge.

* Northern Mid-Atlantic into New England: 1 to 3 inches.

Flash and urban flooding will be possible, along with renewed river

rises on the St. Johns River, across the Florida Peninsula today.

Heavy rainfall from this system will spread northward across

portions of the Southeast, upper Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and New

England through Saturday, where limited flooding impacts will be

possible.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with

Hurricane Nicole, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS2 with

the WMO header ACUS42 KWBC or at the following link:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc2.html

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible overnight across eastern

South Carolina and southern North Carolina.  The threat will shift

northward across central and eastern North Carolina into southern

and eastern Virginia during the day on Friday.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$

Forecaster Pasch/Roberts

000

WTNT42 KNHC 110245

TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Nicole Discussion Number  16

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172022

1000 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

Surface synoptic observations and Doppler radar velocities indicate

that Nicole has weakened to a tropical depression inland near the 

Florida/Georgia border.  Maximum sustained winds are estimated to 

be 30 kt, and the surface data indicate that the minimum pressure 

has risen to 992 mb.  Although Nicole has weakened, it is still a 

significant rainfall producer.

Nicole continues moving northwestward, or at about 320/13 kt.  The 

cyclone is moving on the western side of a mid-level ridge.  During 

the next day or so, the system should accelerate 

north-northeastward in the flow on the eastern side of a large 

trough until it dissipates.

Continued gradual weakening will occur while Nicole moves farther

inland during the next day or so.  By Friday night, the system is

expected to become post-tropical and be absorbed by the large

mid-latitude weather system over the eastern United States.

Key Messages:

1. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall tonight across the Florida 

Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be possible across portions 

of the Florida Peninsula, with renewed river flooding on the St. 

Johns River ongoing. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream 

flooding will also be possible on Friday in the Southeast through 

the central Appalachians, particularly in the Blue Ridge Mountains, 

and extending northward through eastern Ohio, west central 

Pennsylvania, into western New York by Friday night into Saturday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0300Z 30.7N  84.3W   30 KT  35 MPH

 12H  11/1200Z 33.0N  84.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND

 24H  12/0000Z 37.0N  81.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

 36H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster Pasch

000

FXUS61 KCAR 110228

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

928 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure remains to our southeast overnight while a

stalled front meanders across far northern Maine. Low pressure

will approach from the south Friday night, cross the region

Saturday, then exit across the Maritimes Saturday night. Another

low will form across the Gulf of Maine Sunday, then exit across

the Maritimes Sunday night through Monday. High pressure will

build across the region Tuesday.....

......SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Low pressure, the remnants of Nicole, will lift to western New

England Friday night drawing a warm front north across the region.

Rain, heavy at times, will expand across the region overnight

in advance of the low. Could also have the slight chance of a

thunderstorm across central/Downeast areas later Friday night

through early Saturday. The low will cross central/Downeast

portions of the region Saturday. The low will draw abundant

moisture northward, with precipitable water values increasing to

1.50 to 2.00 inches Saturday. Rain, still possibly heavy at

times, will persist Saturday. A strong low level jet will also

cross the region, to the south of the low track, later Friday

night into Saturday with the strongest winds generally expected

along the Downeast coast. Southerly wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph,

possibly stronger, are expected. The low will exit across the

Maritimes Saturday night drawing a cold front across the region

which will reach the Gulf of Maine late. Weak low pressure

should begin to develop along the trailing cold front, across

the Gulf of Maine, later Saturday night. Rain will taper to

showers Saturday night. Precipitation will generally remain in

the form of rain showers across much of the region Saturday

night. However, cold advection in the wake of the cold front

could allow the rain showers to mix with, or transition to, snow

showers across northern areas later Saturday night. The

secondary low will begin to drift east toward the Maritimes

Sunday. Any early snow showers will transition back to rain

showers across northern areas. Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy

skies along with a chance of rain showers across the region

Sunday. Temperatures will be at above normal levels Saturday,

with slightly above normal level temperatures Sunday......

.....LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

The secondary low will begin to intensify while exiting across

the Maritimes Sunday night. Colder air will be drawn south

across the region in the wake of the exiting low allowing rain

showers to transition to snow showers across northern/central

portions of the region. Precipitation should generally remain in

the form of rain showers Downeast, though could mix with snow

showers at times late. The low will intensify while exiting

across the Maritimes Monday, with high pressure building toward

the region late. Could still have a chance of snow showers

across the north and mountains early Monday. Otherwise, expect

partly sunny/mostly cloudy skies early with clouds then

decreasing. Also, expect gusty west/northwest winds Monday. High

pressure will cross the region Tuesday through early Wednesday.

Uncertainty then increases later Wednesday into Thursday,

regarding the timing/track of possible low pressure lifting

along the coast. Slightly below normal level temperatures are

expected Monday through Thursday.....

3:50 PM AST Thursday 10 November 2022

Special weather statement in effect for:

Fredericton and Southern York County

Significant rain, wind, and high water levels are expected.

Total rainfall: 40 to 60 mm. Locally higher amounts possible.

Maximum wind gusts: 70 to 90 km/h along the northeastern coastline.

Locations: New Brunswick.

Time span: Saturday morning through Saturday night.

Remarks: The remnants of Tropical Storm Nicole will move into the Maritimes on Saturday. Heavy rainfall is expected to begin overnight on Friday, with up to 60 mm possible by the time the rain tapers off on Saturday night. Strong northeasterly winds gusting up to 90 km/h will also develop along the Bay of Chaleur coastline on Saturday morning and will begin to ease overnight. Elevated water levels are expected along the Bay of Chaleur and Gulf of St. Lawrence coastlines on Saturday, with minor coastal flooding possible.

Localized flooding is possible in heavy rain. Strong winds may result in utility outages and fallen tree branches.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #NBStorm.

3:50 PM AST Thursday 10 November 2022

Special weather statement in effect for:

Queens County P.E.I.

Significant rain and wind are expected.

Total rainfall: 30 to 50 mm. Locally higher amounts possible.

Maximum wind gusts: 60 to 80 km/h. Stronger coastal gusts possible.

Locations: Prince Edward Island.

Time span: Saturday morning through Saturday night.

Remarks: The remnants of Tropical Storm Nicole will move into the Maritimes on Saturday. Heavy rain will begin early on Saturday morning, with up to 50 mm possible by the time the rain tapers off Saturday night. Strong winds will also develop on Saturday morning, with gusts up to 80 km/h possible along the northern coastline. Winds will begin to ease on Saturday night.

Localized flooding is possible in heavy rain. Strong winds may result in utility outages and fallen tree branches.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to PEstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #PEStorm.

2:34 PM AST Thursday 10 November 2022

Tropical cyclone information statement for:

New Brunswick

Nova Scotia

Prince Edward Island

Québec - south:

Îles-de-la-Madeleine

The next information statement is planned for 2:00 p.m. AST Friday.

For Tropical Storm Nicole.

Tropical Storm Nicole intensified to hurricane status last night as it approached Florida and has been bringing damaging surge, waves and wind over parts of Florida today. Nicole will turn northward tonight then travel inland over Georgia and The Carolinas tomorrow while merging with a cold front and becoming post tropical. The combined weather system is expected to track through New England early Saturday and into the Maritimes Saturday evening.

Since the storm is expected to transition to 'post-tropical' well to our south, it will essentially be an autumn type storm while impacting Eastern Canada. Heavy rain will spread well north of the low's track as far north and west as Lake Erie and Lake Ontario then into southern Quebec. Rain and wind is expected over the Maritime provinces with very mild, tropical temperatures and gusty winds south of the track and strong, cold northeasterly winds north of it. This frontal low will track somewhere through New Brunswick. Parts of central and eastern Quebec and eventually Newfoundlland will even see some snow, so this will clearly be a non-tropical storm. Local weather statements have been posted for many areas related to this weather system.

Rainfall could be in the 50 to 100 mm range along and north of the track (i.e. New Brunswick). We do not anticipate winds to be much of a concern except possibly over the Acadian Peninsula area of New Brunswick and Gulf portions of Quebec (possibly gusts to 90 km/h). Elevated water levels and wave activity is likely in the northern Gulf of St Lawrence affecting northeastern New Brunswick and the Gaspe region that could cause some minor flooding.

In the tropical airmass portion of the low over Nova Scotia, winds will likely only gust 50 to 70 km/h and thus should not cause many issues. Details will appear in local forecasts and statements from the regional weather offices.

The CHC will continue to follow this system and provide additional analysis given its tropical history but we are not issuing an actual track forecast product.

Forecaster: FOGARTY

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.