POST-TROPICAL STORM BERYL MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA

WOCN31 CWHX 220000
POST-TROPICAL STORM BERYL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT
FRIDAY 21 JULY 2006.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 12.00 AM ADT

...POST-TROPICAL STORM BERYL MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 PM ADT... POST-TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 45.3 N AND LONGITUDE 63.7 W... ABOUT 16 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 30 KM WEST OF TRURO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 40
KNOTS...74 KM/H...AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1002 MB. BERYL IS MOVING
EAST NORTHEAST AT 25 KNOTS...46 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
JUL 21 9.00 PM 45.3N 63.7W 1002 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 22 9.00 AM 48.0N 57.5W 1003 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 22 9.00 PM 49.2N 51.8W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 23 9.00 AM 50.0N 46.0W 1004 30 56 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 23 9.00 PM 50.0N 41.0W 1006 30 56 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 24 9.00 AM 49.0N 36.0W 1008 30 56 DISSIPATING

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
RAINFALL WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AS OF 9 PM FOR PORTIONS OF PRINCE
EDWARD ISLAND AND HAVE BEEN LIFTED FOR NOVA SCOTIA. EXPOSED LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THE TRACK OVER EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA COULD STILL SEE GUSTS
NEAR 80 KM/H UNTIL LATE FRIDAY EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A SUETE WIND
WARNING FOR NORTHERN INVERNESS COUNTY IN CAPE BRETON.

BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN HAVE BEEN OCCURRING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTRE WITH A MAXIMUM RAINFALL OF 61 MM AT BRIER ISLAND. THE
PREVIOUSLY QUOTED 64-MM TOTAL AT YARMOUTH WAS NOT THE OFFICIAL
AMOUNT. THE OFFICIAL AMOUNT BASED ON DIRECT RAIN GAUGE MEASUREMENTS
WAS IN FACT 46 MM OR JUST UNDER 2 INCHES.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA RAINFALL AMOUNTS REPORTED
AS OF LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WERE GENERALLY IN THE 25 TO 35 MM
RANGE. WIND GUSTS IN THE HALIFAX AREA WERE BETWEEN 60 AND 80 KM/H AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS OCCURRED LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW SMALL TREE
BRANCHES WERE BROKEN RESULTING IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.

WE WILL HAVE SOME MORE INFORMATION REGARDING OBSERVATIONS AND IMPACTS
TONIGHT IN OUR MIDNIGHT UPDATE.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR REGIONS SOUTH OF THE TRACK
WITH WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SEA STATE NEAR 5 METERS
IS EXPECTED WELL SOUTH OF THE TRACK. MODERATELY ROUGH SURF IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA UNTIL SATURDAY
MORNING. ROUGH SURF WILL OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF NEWFOUNDLAND
SATURDAY.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
THE CENTRE OF POST-TROPICAL STORM BERYL CAME ASHORE NEAR YARMOUTH
AROUND 18Z THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS STRONGEST WINDS
HAVE MOSTLY BEEN CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STORM.

OVERALL OUR WIND AND RAIN PREDICTIONS HAVE MATERIALIZED REASONABLY
WELL EXCEPT FOR SOME HEAVIER RAINS FARTHER NORTH THAN WE EXPECTED
THIS MORNING..AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS ALONG ATLANTIC COASTAL NOVA
SCOTIA. THE GUSTS WERE STILL ONLY ABOUT 10 KM/H HIGHER THAN PREDICTED
YESTERDAY. RAINFALL RATES WERE AS HIGH AS 25 MM/HR IN THE PRIMARY
LEADING BAND OF RAIN AHEAD OF BERYL'S REMNANT LOW CENTRE.

B. PROGNOSTIC
OUR FAVOURED TRACK PREDICTION FOLLOWS THE UKMET..CONSEQUENTLY WE HAVE
MADE A SLIGHT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENTS COMPARED TO OUR LAST FORECAST
TRACK. POST-TROPICAL BERYL SHOULD TRACK OVER WESTERN CAPE BRETON
OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND ON SATURDAY. THE REMNANTS
OF BERYL ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GRAND BANKS
SATURDAY EVENING. SEVERAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE UKMET GFS AND NOGAPS
..THEN TAKE THE REMNANTS OF BERYL ON A SLIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST TURN ON
SUNDAY WHILE GOING AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN ARE STILL EXPECTED THIS EVENING JUST
AHEAD AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTRE OF THE LOW.

D. MARINE WEATHER
NONE.

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
22/00Z 40 90 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
22/12Z 40 90 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/00Z 40 90 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/12Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24/00Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24/12Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


END LAFORTUNE/FOGARTY

Today Weather Update

Total Precip: 31 mm/1.22 Inch of rain fell, between the predawn and afternoon hours

Beryl, now fully extratopical, made it's second landfall near Yarmouth Nova Scotia as a 40 kt system, at roughly 4:00 PM ADT/19:00 UCT/GMT. Attached is a Surface Chart created at 3:00 PM ADT/18:00 UCT/GMT depicting Beryl, near the time of second landfall. 

Weather Report For Johnson Settlement NB, Recorded At 2100 UCT On 07/21/2006

Temp: Current; 23.1 C/74 F, High; 25.8 C/78 F, Low; (to current time) 13.5 C/56 F


Hum: 70%


Bar: 1007 mb/29.76 Inches; Falling Slowly


Sky: Mainly Cloudy; Stratocumulus


Wind: West; 3 gusting to 6 mph/5 gusting to 10 km/h


Precip: None


Total Precip: (to current time) 30.5 mm/1.20 Inch of rain fell, between the predawn and early afternoon hours


Note: None

Beryl, now fully extratopical, made it's second landfall near Yarmouth Nova Scotia as a 40 kt system, at roughly 4:00 PM ADT/19:00 UCT/GMT. Attached is a Visible Satellite Image of Beryl, taken near the time of second landfall. 

POST-TROPICAL STORM BERYL HITTING MARITIMES

WOCN31 CWHX 211800
POST-TROPICAL STORM BERYL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT
FRIDAY 21 JULY 2006.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT

...POST-TROPICAL STORM BERYL HITTING MARITIMES...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT... POST-TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 43.8 N AND LONGITUDE 66.4 W... ABOUT 10 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 25 KM WEST OF YARMOUTH . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS... 74 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 998 MB.
BERYL IS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 23 KNOTS... 43 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
JUL 21 3.00 PM 43.8N 66.4W 998 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 22 3.00 AM 46.3N 60.9W 999 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 22 3.00 PM 48.3N 54.0W 1000 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 23 3.00 AM 49.8N 49.0W 1002 30 56 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 23 3.00 PM 50.2N 44.8W 1009 30 56 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 24 3.00 AM 50.0N 40.0W 1009 30 56 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 24 3.00 PM 49.0N 34.0W 1006 30 56 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO 2PM ADT INCLUDE 59 MM AT YARMOUTH... 48 MM
AT BRIER ISLAND ... AND A LOCAL REPORT OF 45 MM FROM FREDERICTON
THIS MORNING. MAXIMUM WIND REPORTED WAS 96 KM/H AT BACCARO POINT
NOVA SCOTIA.

THE ATLANTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTRE IS MAINTAINING RAINFALL
WARNINGS AHEAD OF THE TRACK OF BERYL... NAMELY THROUGH MUCH OF
MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA AND SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK. THE BACK EDGE OF
THE HEAVY RAIN HAS REACHED WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA AND RAIN WARNINGS
WILL BE ENDED IN THOSE AREAS. AS OF FORECAST TIME THE ASPC WAS
CONSIDERING RAINFALL WARNINGS FOR PEI BUT THEY HAVE NOT YET BEEN
ISSUED. WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR SHELBURNE COUNTY OF NOVA
SCOTIA WITH GUSTS TO 90 KM/H ESPECIALLY IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS.
GUSTS TO 80 KM/H ARE EXPECTED AS FAR EAST AS HALIFAX.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR REGIONS SOUTH OF THE TRACK OF THE
LOW WITH WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SEA STATE NEAR 5 METERS
IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE TRACK. MODERATELY ROUGH SURF IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF SOUTHWEST NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
CONVECTION HAS MAINTAINED ITSELF MOSTLY TO THE IMMEDIATE NORTHEAST
OF THE CENTRE TODAY. BERYL HAS UNDERGONE ITS POST-TROPICAL
TRANSITION EARLIER TODAY AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 40 KNOTS. WINDS AT BUOY 44037 HAVE NOW BACKED TO THE NORTH AND
JUDGING BY THE WINDS AND PRESSURE FALLS OVER SOUTHWEST NOVA SCOTIA
IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE CENTRE OF BERYL WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR JUST
WEST OF YARMOUTH IMMINENTLY.

B. PROGNOSTIC
IN LIGHT OF THE TRAJECTORY OF BERYL EARLIER TODAY OUR TRACK HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE NORTHWEST. CONSEQUENTLY POST-TROPICAL BERYL
IS NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SPINE OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS
EVENING EVENTUALLY REACHING CAPE BRETON OVERNIGHT. THIS TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE 06Z UKMET TRACK. LATER IN THE PERIOD THE TRACK ACROSS
NEWFOUNDLAND HAS ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTH. THE REMNANTS OF
BERYL ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GRAND BANKS LATE
SATURDAY AND THEN MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
ALL THE MOISTURE IS SHEARED AHEAD OF THE STORM CENTRE WITH REPORTS
SINCE THIS MORNING OF 20-30 MM PER HOUR IN SOME LOCATIONS. WITH A
TRACK FARTHER NORTH THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF NOVA SCOTIA SHOULD BE LESS THAN EXPECTED EARLIER SINCE MOST OF
THAT RAIN WILL BE IN BANDS.

D. MARINE WEATHER
STEADY MARINE GALES HAVE YET TO BE REPORTED.

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
21/18Z 90 90 60 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
22/06Z 90 90 60 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
22/18Z 90 90 60 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/06Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/18Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24/06Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24/18Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

END LAFORTUNE/BOWYER

Surface Chart created this morning of Tropical Storm Beryl, now a 40 kt system. After making landfall on Nantucket Island, Mass in the predawn hours, Beryl is now heading towards a second landfall in Western Nova Scotia later today, and is becoming extratopical in the process. The storm is now spreading periods of heavy rain over my own area. 

New England Doppler Radar Composite of Tropical Storm Beryl, now a 40 kt system. After making landfall on Nantucket Island, Mass in the predawn hours, Beryl is now heading towards a second landfall in Western Nova Scotia later today, and is becoming extratopical in the process. The storm is now spreading periods of heavy rain over my own area. 

Close-up Visible Image taken this morning of Tropical Storm Beryl, now a 40 kt system. After making landfall on Nantucket Island, Mass in the predawn hours, Beryl is now heading towards a second landfall in Western Nova Scotia later today, and is becoming extratopical in the process. The storm is now spreading periods of heavy rain over my own area. 

FLASH FLOOD WARNING; For Eastern Maine

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
MEC003-019-029-211900-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
859 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CARIBOU MAINE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY IN NORTHERN MAINE...
EASTERN PENOBSCOT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MAINE...
NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MAINE...

* UNTIL 300 PM EDT FRIDAY

* AT 852 AM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED FLASH FLOODING
DUE TO PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN IN AN AREA STRETCHING FROM NEAR LEE
IN CENTRAL PENOBSCOT COUNTY...TO THE FOREST CITY AREA OF
NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
PRENTISS...WYTOPITLOCK...DANFORTH AND VANCEBORO.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF
SMALL BROOKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS LOW LANDS
ALONG THE BANKS OF BROOKS AND STREAMS.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

LAT...LON 4519 6871 4526 6827 4560 6724 4605 6756

$$

MAT

Tropical Storm BERYL Public Advisory No. 13

000
WTNT32 KNHC 211452
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 13...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006

...CORRECTED FOR LOCATION AND DISTANCE

...BERYL BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL...

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.4 WEST ABOUT 215
MILES...345 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
TRACK WILL BRING THE CYCLONE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN NOVA SCOTIA
IN ASSOCIATION WITH BERYL.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...43.1 N...67.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Heavy Rainfall Warnings Issued For Southern New Brunswick

Environment Canada's Official Weather Warnings
Warnings
st. Stephen and northern Charlotte county
11:03 AM ADT Friday 21 July 2006
Rainfall warning for
st. Stephen and northern Charlotte county issued

Local rainfall amounts up to 60 millimetres or more are forecast for today and tonight. This is a warning that significant rainfall is expected or occurring in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.


The remnants of tropical storm Beryl are forecast to brush the atlantic coast of Nova Scotia later today. Heavy showers ahead of the system have developed over the southern half of New Brunswick. These showers are presently streaming over Kent County and heavier precipitation in association with the post tropical storm is now expected over the Fundy coast of New Brunswick. Heavy rainfall warnings have therefore been posted for these areas.

BERYL TO BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TO NOVA SCOTIA

WOCN31 CWHX 211200
TROPICAL STORM BERYL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT
FRIDAY 21 JULY 2006.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT

...POST-TROPICAL BERYL TO BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TO
NOVA SCOTIA TODAY AND TO NEWFOUNDLAND SATURDAY...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 AM ADT... TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
42.1 N AND LONGITUDE 68.2 W... ABOUT 140 NAUTICAL MILES OR 260 KM
SOUTHWEST OF YARMOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
45 KNOTS... 83 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1001 MB. BERYL IS
MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 18 KNOTS... 33 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
JUL 21 9.00 AM 42.1N 68.2W 1001 45 83 UNDERGOING TRANSITION
JUL 21 9.00 PM 44.7N 63.7W 1002 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 22 9.00 AM 47.0N 57.5W 1003 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 22 9.00 PM 49.4N 51.3W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 23 9.00 AM 51.8N 45.2W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING
HALIFAX COUNTY FOR AMOUNTS BETWEEN 25 AND 50 MM. WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM WITH BERYL. EXPOSED COASTAL AREAS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL LIKELY SEE SOUTHEASTERLY GUSTS
IN THE 60 TO 80 KM/H RANGE WHICH WOULD BE BARELY ENOUGH TO BREAK
SMALL TREE BRANCHES.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR REGIONS SOUTH OF THE TRACK OF THE
LOW WITH WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SEA STATE NEAR 4 METERS IS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE TRACK. MODERATELY ROUGH SURF IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SOUTH COASTAL WATERS OF NEWFOUNDLAND SATURDAY.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
CONVECTION IS STILL OCCURRING IN SPITE OF THE TRACKING OVER COOL
WATER WHICH IS NEAR 17C. MOST OF IT IS APPEARING DOWNSHEAR OR IN THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. SURFACE WINDS ARE STILL ESTIMATED NEAR 45
KNOTS WITH MSLP NEAR 1001 MB.

B. PROGNOSTIC

WE HAVE NUDGED THE TRACK A BIT FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FORECAST..BUT
STILL KEEP THE CENTRE ROUGHLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA. THE MAIN POINT TO MAKE IS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN OFFSHORE OF NOVA SCOTIA. HOWEVER WE DO EXPECT THE CENTRE TO
CROSS EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND BRINGING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS TO THE
AVALON AND BURIN PENINSULAS ON SATURDAY. THE WINDS SHOULD STILL BE
NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT WITH GUSTS TO ONLY ABOUT 70 KM/H.

FORECAST REASONING CONSISTS OF A BLEND OF GEM REG OUTPUT AND
CONCEPTUAL UNDERSTANDING OF THESE TYPES OF STORMS. MOST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE MERGES THE LOW WITH A NORTHERN TROUGH TOO SOON..LEADING
TO A NORTHWARD-BIASED TRACK. THE GEM REG TRACK LOOKS REASONABLE
ALTHOUGH WE HAVE TO DECREASE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE AND BUMP UP THE
WINDS FOR OUR FORECAST. THE TIMING OF THE LOW LOOKS GOOD. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE INFLATED SOMEWHAT FROM THE GEM REG TO REFLECT THE
ANTICIPATED AMOUNTS THAT WOULD OCCUR IN DOWNPOURS FROM THIS TROPICAL
AIRMASS.

THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION PATTERN PREDICTED BY GEM IS REMINISCENT
OF A TRANSITIONING TROPICAL STORM WITH MOST OF THE RAINFALL
OCCURRING IN A FEW BANDS AHEAD OF THE LOW CENTRE. THIS IS WHAT WE
EXPECT TO SEE OVER NOVA SCOTIA TODAY. WITHIN THE BANDS..SQUALLY TYPE
DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS PATTERN IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH A
RAPID MODE OF ET AS INDICATED IN SOME CPS FORECASTS FROM THURSDAY
WHERE THE RAINFALL DOES NOT BECOME AS LEFTWARD-SKEWED AS A STRONGLY
BAROCLINIC-TYPE TRANSITION.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
WE HAVE NO REASON TO CHANGE THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH REGARD TO THE
RAIN WARNINGS AND WIND SPEEDS. DETAILED FORECASTS ARE FOUND UNDER
FORECAST HEADERS FPCN11/14/15 CWHX FOR THE MARITIME PROVINCES AND
UNDER FPCN16 CWHX FOR NEWFOUNDLAND. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR
NEWFOUNDLAND HAS BEEN ISSUED UNDER THE WOCN16 CWHX HEADER.


D. MARINE WEATHER

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
21/12Z 60 60 30 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
22/00Z 90 90 30 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
22/12Z 90 110 60 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/00Z 90 130 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/12Z 90 170 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

END FOGARTY/LAFORTUNE

FLOOD STATEMENT; For Parts of Maine

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
721 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006

MEC019-029-211515-
721 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CARIBOU MAINE HAS ISSUED A

* SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS IN...
EAST CENTRAL PENOBSCOT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MAINE...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LINCOLN...
NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MAINE...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF DANFORTH...

* UNTIL 1115 AM EDT

* AT 721 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
BANDS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
PENOBSCOT AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES. RADAR PRECIPITATION
ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS
THIS AREA OVERNIGHT.

THIS RAINFALL MAY CAUSE RAPID RISES ON THE REGION'S SMALL STREAMS
AND BROOKS...AND PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 4550 6864 4520 6855 4542 6726 4571 6750

$$

DUDA

TS Beryl Makes Landfall on Nantucket Island, Mass; Advisory No. 12

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
500 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006

...CENTER OF BERYL PASSES OVER NANTUCKET...WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FOR
THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING CAPE COD...MARTHA'S
VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST OR ABOUT 35
MILES... 55 KM...NORTHEAST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND ABOUT 365
MILES...590 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED TODAY. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF BERYL NEAR OR
OVER NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS BERYL LOSES TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 44008 RECENTLY REPORTED 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS OF 41 MPH WITH A GUST TO 56 MPH.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY BOTH AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND NANTUCKET ISLAND IS 1001 MB...29.56
INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS SHOULD DIMINISH
TODAY.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN NOVA SCOTIA
IN ASSOCIATION WITH BERYL.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...41.7 N...69.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

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