Beginning Of Spring Winter Storm Update One

000

FXUS61 KCAR 220037

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

837 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Low pressure will track away from the area through the Northern

Maritimes tonight into Friday. A new area of low pressure will

take shape over the Southeastern States Friday night...track

north off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Saturday...and continue into

New Brunswick Saturday night. High pressure will build in on

Sunday and remain to our north Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

820 pm update...Expired the Winter Storm Warning in northern

Aroostook County as snow intensity is quickly diminishing.

Blowing snow concerns may concern further into the night in the

Route 1 and 1A corridors in eastern Aroostook County. Subzero

wind chills follow later tonight.

With regards to the Saturday storm, we have issued a Winter

Storm Watch from late Friday night into early Sunday morning.

The watch reflects our current conservative projections for a

wide swath of 10 to 13 inches for large portions of the area.

Uncertainty remains in where the corridor of max accumulations

will end up, whether max accumulations can approach 20 inches,

and how far the rain/snow line moves northward Saturday

afternoon.

Previous discussion...

A deepening low pressure system is moving northeastward into New

Brunswick and will continue to do so through tonight. Snow bands

continue to wrap around the system. These are affecting

Aroostook County, northern parts of Washington County and the

Central Highlands region from around Millinocket northward. A

Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for all of Aroostook

County. At the same time, a Winter Weather Advisory remains in

effect for Northern Piscataquis, Northern Penobscot, and

Northern Washington Counties. Additional accumulations will

generally be 2 inches or less, though some spots could get some

more where banding persists. Further south and west, snow has

come to an end and headlines have been dropped.

In addition, strong westerly to northwesterly winds have

developed behind the low. This is causing patchy to areas of

blowing snow, which will continue into tonight. Localized

whiteout conditions are possible where this coincides with

falling snow.

Snow will come to an end by this evening over central areas.

High-res guidance shows at least some light snow over the Crown

of Maine to midnight or just after. Southern areas will see

clearing tonight, while northern areas see some breaks late. Low

temperatures will be in the single digits above zero in the

North Woods and Central Highlands. Teens are forecast for the

rest of the area. Strong winds will continue tonight, gusting 40-50

mph at times. This will result in wind chills below zero north

of Bangor, with teens below zero in the higher terrain.

Dry weather will prevail for Friday thanks to high pressure.

Winds will slowly diminish, but it will remain breezy throughout

the day. High temperatures will be below normal for this time of

year. Expect 20s in the North, and lower 30s near Bangor and

Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

The storm system which brought snow and wind to the area Thursday

will be moving away through the Northern Maritimes Friday evening as

high pressure briefly builds over the area. Meanwhile a southern

branch shortwave will be developing a new area of low pressure over

the Southeastern States. The new low center will track toward Cape

Hatteras overnight Friday night. A northern branch shortwave moving

through the Great Lakes will support an inverted trough extending

well north of this low up the Appalachian and into Maine. High

pressure well off the East Coast assuming the position of a

subtropical high will be pumping ample moisture into this trough

which will support lots of rainfall up the east coast, becoming snow

into Northern New England. The southern branch trough will hand the

surface low north to the northern branch trough on Saturday as it

races northward spreading heavy rain Downeast and heavy snow over

central and northern areas during the day Saturday. This has the

potential to be a heavy snowstorm, perhaps the heaviest of the

season. However, there remains a bit of uncertainty in how far north

and west the heaviest corridor of precipitation will come. The

heaviest snow, and rain Downeast, may be confined to central,

northern central and eastern areas with more moderate or

lighter amounts up in the northwestern corner of the region.

Heavy snow across the north, mostly over eastern areas, with

lighter snow northwest will continue into Saturday evening with

rain continuing Downeast. Surface low pressure will be in the

form of a long, elongated low Saturday evening extending from

off the Mid-Atlantic coast northeast across the Gulf of Maine.

The low will shift east into the Maritimes later Sunday night

ending snow from west to east. Rain Downeast may change over to

snow before ending late Saturday night as colder air undercuts

the system.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

High pressure building in on Sunday will bring partial clearing and

a cold day with highs from near 30 north to the mid to upper 30s

Downeast. This will be followed by a clear to partly cloudy, cold

and moonlit night Sunday night with lows in the single digits north

and low 20s Downeast. High pressure will remain to our north on

Monday maintaining dry weather. A new low spawned by the same

southern branch trough that will create the weekend storm will be

spinning well off the Southeast coast and should end up dissipating

well to our south. This will allow for another dry night Monday

night followed by a partly sunny and dry day on Tuesday. Upper

ridging and sunshine will allow temps to rebound close to 40 on

Tuesday.

As mid-week approaches our focus will turn a new southern

branch low lifting into the Ohio Valley with a surface trough

connected to a northern branch low up near Hudson Bay. The

southern branch low is expected to lift north later Wednesday

into Wednesday night. A southerly wind out ahead of this trough

and behind high pressure off the east coast will pull warm air

north. When precipitation moves into our area later Wednesday

into Wednesday night it should be warm enough for rain across

the region. Showers may continue into Thursday before the system

slides east allowing cooler and drier conditions to return on

Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR late this afternoon into this evening from

PQI northward with SN and BLSN. Conditions improve to MVFR and

then to VFR late tonight as the snow ends. HUL mainly MVFR

through this evening with -SN improving to VFR late. Southern

terminals VFR through tonight. LLWS from BGR northward through

03z-06z tonight. W winds 15-25kt with gusts 30-45kt.

All terminals VFR on Friday, with some brief MVFR cigs possible

North around sunrise. LLWS possible, but not enough confidence

to include in TAFs at this time. W winds 15-20 kts with gusts

to 25-35 kts, diminishing late.

SHORT TERM:

Friday night...VFR...becoming MVFR late. Gusty NW wind, becoming

calm then increase E wind late.

Saturday...IFR to LIFR south. MVFR becoming IFR then LIFR north. E

wind.

Saturday night...IFR, improving to MVFR then VFR late. N wind.

Sunday...VFR. Gusty NW wind.

Sunday night...VFR. Light N wind.

Monday...VFR. NE wind.

Monday night...VFR. NE wind.

Tuesday... VFR. NE wind.

&&

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM: Gale Warning remains in effect for all waters through

tonight. Winds gust up to 45 mph at times tonight. Seas 8-13

feet on the outer waters and 4-7 feet on the intra-coastal

waters tonight. Winds diminish below Gale force Friday morning

on the intra-coastal waters and on the outer-waters Friday

afternoon. However, winds and seas remain above SCA-criteria

through the day Friday.

SHORT TERM:

A SCA may be needed early Friday evening for W winds gusting over 25

kt. Winds should drop below SCA later at night. A SCA will likely be

needed Saturday into Saturday night with a gale possibly needed over

the offshore waters. Heavy rain is likely Saturday into Saturday

evening. A SCA will likely need to continue Sunday into Tuesday for

gusty N to NE winds. Seas may build over 10 ft late Saturday night

into Sunday in response to a long southerly fetch to our south.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ME...Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday

     morning for MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-031-032.

MARINE...Gale Warning until 2 PM EDT Friday for ANZ050-051.

     Gale Warning until 9 AM EDT Friday for ANZ052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Clark/MCW

Short Term...Bloomer

Long Term...Bloomer

Aviation...Clark/MCW/Bloomer

Marine...Clark/MCW/Bloomer

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Caribou ME

817 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

MEZ029-030-230030-

Coastal Hancock-Coastal Washington-

817 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Coastal DownEast Maine.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Snow is expected to develop early Saturday and will likely change to

heavy rain later Saturday before changing back to snow Saturday

night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather

conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

$$

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Caribou ME

808 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-031-032-220900-

/O.NEW.KCAR.WS.A.0004.240323T0800Z-240324T1200Z/

Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-

Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-

Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-Interior

Hancock-Central Washington-Southern Piscataquis-Northern

Washington-

Including the cities of Dedham, Wesley, Baxter St Park, Baker

Lake, Brewer, Aurora, Greenville, Monson, Mount Katahdin, Calais,

Madawaska, Allagash, Patten, Vanceboro, Guilford, Caribou, Old

Town, Millinocket, Clayton Lake, Grand Lake Stream, Orono,

Amherst, Howland, Great Pond, Topsfield, Ashland, Medway,

Frenchville, Bangor, Blanchard, Eastbrook, Princeton, Danforth,

Smyrna Mills, Milo, Mars Hill, Hodgdon, Fort Kent, Chamberlain

Lake, Churchill Dam, Dover-Foxcroft, Billy-Jack Depot, Houlton,

Lincoln, Presque Isle, Springfield, Sherman, East Millinocket,

and Van Buren

808 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH

SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 7 and

  14 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of Central Highlands, Far Eastern, Far Northern,

  Interior DownEast, North Woods, and Penobscot Valley Maine

* WHEN...From late Friday night through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...Significant snowfall and periods of heavy snowfall rates

  will combine with low visibility to create very dangerous driving

  conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant snow,

sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to

monitor the latest forecasts.

&&

$$

MCW