Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook For Northern And Eastern Maine - 02/15/2024

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME

916 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN, CENTRAL

AND DOWNEAST MAINE...

This is the fourth Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook for 2024,

issued by the National Weather Service in Caribou, Maine. This

outlook is for Northern, Central, and Downeast Maine for the two

week period of February 15th through February 29th, 2024.

The potential for ice jam flooding is Normal across Northern Maine

and the Central Highlands. The potential for ice jam flooding

is Below Normal across the Downeast basins. The potential for

open water flooding is Below Normal across all basins.

...NORTHERN BASINS...

SNOW DEPTH: Below Normal. 10-15 inches with isolated higher

amounts

WATER EQUIVALENT: Below Normal. Generally 2.5-4 inches with

isolated higher amounts

STREAM FLOWS: Near Normal.

RIVER ICE: St. John and Aroostook River`s are 90-95% frozen.

Other smaller rivers are 50-75% frozen. Several openings in the

river ice from near Dickey Bridge in Allagash downstream to Fort

Kent and Madawaska. Mainly frozen river downstream to Hamlin.

There is ongoing frazil production in the open areas, however that

has been reduced with the lower streamflows.

...CENTRAL HIGHLAND BASINS...

SNOW DEPTH: Below Normal. 4-12 inches.

WATER EQUIVALENT: Below Normal. Generally 1-3 inches.

STREAM FLOWS: Near Normal.

RIVER ICE: Northern stretches of the Penobscot & Piscataquis

rivers are 60-75% ice covered. 90-95% of the Mattawamkeag is

frozen. Central to Southern stretches of the Penobscot are 25-35%

frozen with most ice above dams. These openings are mostly due to

tributaries and dam discharges. Ice has significantly decreased

since previous outlook.

...DOWNEAST BASINS...

SNOW DEPTH: Below Normal. 0-7 inches.

WATER EQUIVALENT: Below Normal. Generally 0-2 inches.

STREAM FLOWS: Normal to Slightly Above Normal.

RIVER ICE: Above dams the rivers are generally 90% ice covered in

mainly sheet ice or fractured ice.

...ICE THICKNESS...

Ice thickness is extremely variable this year posing a serious

risk to life. Do not venture onto the ice unless you know the

exact thickness. For more information on ice safety visit the

Maine Warden Service website www.maine.gov/ifw/fishing-

boating/fishing/ice-safety-tips.html

For the 2024 season the Winter/Spring Flood Outlook (ESF) will be

in graphical format on our website

www.weather.gov/car/springfloodoutlook

...CLIMATE GUIDANCE FROM NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...

As we move into late February...it appears the North Atlantic

Oscillation (NAO) index will become weakly positive while the

Pacific North America (PNA)index tries to move from weakly

positive to weakly negative. The combination of a weakly positive

NAO and weakly negative PNA would favor a return to above normal

temperatures with precipitation perhaps returning to above normal

as more southern stream systems come north with the weakly

positive PNA trying to build an upper level ridge across the

southeastern United States. The official 8 to 14 day outlook from

NOAA`s Climate Prediction Center for 21-27 February 2024 seems in

line with the pattern discussed above as it calls for temperatures

to likely remain normal across the area. Precipitation for the

same time period is leaning above normal across the entire region.

$$

Sinko

January 2024 Climate Summary For Northern And Eastern Maine

...JANUARY 2024 CLIMATE NARRATIVE FOR NORTHERN/EASTERN MAINE...

JANUARY 2024 FOR THE REGION AS A WHOLE FINISHED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE

TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WAS MOSTLY BELOW AVERAGE, EXCEPT

SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE ALONG THE COAST. SNOWFALL WAS NEAR AVERAGE

ACROSS THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA RANGED FROM 3.5 TO 5 DEGREES F ABOVE

1991-2020 NORMALS, BUT THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH THAT ANY OF THE LONG TERM

CLIMATE SITES HAD A TOP 10 WARMEST JANUARY.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT EVENTS OF THE MONTH OCCURRED ON THE 10TH AND

13TH WHEN SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING WAS OBSERVED ALONG THE

WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTY COASTS. ALTHOUGH THE OBSERVED WATER

LEVELS WERE HIGHER ON THE 13TH, HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS AND MORE

SIGNIFICANT WAVE RUN UP LED TO MORE WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT

FLOODING ON THE 10TH.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORMS WERE OBSERVED ON THE 9TH INTO THE

10TH WHEN 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW WAS OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST AND 6 TO

12 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. ANOTHER EVENT ON THE 16TH ALSO

PRODUCED 2-4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST AND 6 INCHES TO AS MUCH AS A

FOOT FROM BANGOR NORTH TO THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY.

BY THE END OF THE MONTH, THE SNOW DEPTH ACROSS THE REGION RANGED

FROM 10 TO 18 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF AROOSTOOK COUNTY AND IN MOST

AREAS FROM MILLINOCKET NORTH WITH WITH LOCALLY UP TO 2 FEET ACROSS

THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE NORTH WOODS. AMOUNTS DROPPED OFF TO

4 TO 6 INCHES IN THE BANGOR AREA AND ALONG THE COAST.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER`S FORECAST FOR FEBRUARY 2024 INDICATES

THAT THERE ARE NO STRONG CLIMATE SIGNALS THAT POINT TOWARD EITHER

ABOVE OR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.  THE ODDS ARE TILTED SLIGHTLY

TOWARD BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM

LOWS/HIGHS OF AROUND ZERO/20 DEGREES F OVER THE FAR NORTH TO AROUND

10/AROUND 30 ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST AT THE START OF THE MONTH, AND

FROM LOWS/HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS/UPPER 20S IN THE FAR

NORTH TO AROUND 15F/MID 30S AT THE DOWNEAST COAST. FEBRUARY IS ON

AVERAGE THE DRIEST MONTH OF THE YEAR WITH AVERAGE PRECIPITATION

(RAIN AND MELTED SNOW) OF 2.38 INCHES AT BANGOR AND 2.42 INCHES AT

CARIBOU. AVERAGE SNOWFALL RANGES FROM 15 TO 20 INCHES DOWNEAST AND

FROM 20 TO 30 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH. FEBRUARY IS ON AVERAGE THE

SNOWIEST MONTH IN CARIBOU WITH AVERAGE SNOWFALL OF 25.3 INCHES. A

LITTLE OVER AN HOUR OF ADDITIONAL DAYLIGHT IS ADDED DURING THE MONTH

OF FEBRUARY.

$$

CB/VJN