Updated Drought Information Statement For Northern & Eastern Maine - 08/27/2020

 000

AXUS71 KCAR 272104

DGTCAR

MEC003-019-021-029-032115-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME

504 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2020

SYNOPSIS...

DROUGHT CATEGORIES HAVE REMAINED THE SAME THE PAST WEEK ACROSS

NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE. SEVERE DROUGHT (D2) INCLUDES NEARLY 

ALL OF AROOSTOOK COUNTY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR WESTERN 

PORTION OF THE COUNTY ALONG THE QUEBEC BORDER. SEVERE DROUGHT  

ALSO INCLUDES MUCH OF NORTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTY, EASTERN 

WASHINGTON COUNTY, AND MUCH OF PISCATAQUIS COUNTY.

PRECIPITATION DURING THE PAST 60 TO 90 DAYS HAS BEEN WELL BELOW 

AVERAGE AND HAS RANGED FROM 50 TO 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL, EXCEPT 

ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY AND EASTERN WASHINGTON

COUNTY WHERE IT HAS RANGED FROM ONLY 25 TO 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL. 

THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS HAVING CONTINUED FOR A FEW MONTHS. 

RAINFALL IN CARIBOU REMAINS AT RECORD LOWS SINCE THE MIDDLE OF 

MAY, WITH THE 2ND DRIEST GROWING SEASON ON RECORD IN HOULTON. 

THE SEVERE DROUGHT IS DUE TO LOW SOIL MOISTURE, LACK OF 

WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL, LOW STREAM FLOWS, AND DRYING 

VEGETATION. 

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

VERY LOW STREAM FLOWS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO

GRAIN CROPS REPORTED. POTATO AND OTHER CROPS IN THE AREA NEED 

EXTENSIVE IRRIGATION. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF DUG WELLS 

RUNNING DRY IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY. MANY OF THE

LARGER RIVERS ARE AT NEAR RECORD LOW FLOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WELL BELOW AVERAGE DURING THE PAST 60 TO

90 DAYS AND IS ONLY 25 TO 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION 

SINCE MAY 1ST, WITH THE GREATEST DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL ACROSS

THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

A WEATHER SYSTEM COMBING WITH THE REMAINS OF HURRICANE LAURA MAY

BRING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH

LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL WOULD BE 

BENEFICIAL FOR THE MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS 

THE REGION. 

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

AVERAGE SEVEN DAY STREAM FLOW HAS BEEN WELL BELOW NORMAL AND IS

CURRENTLY RUNNING AT ONLY 15 TO 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THERE HAS

LOCALLY BEEN SOME MODEST IMPROVEMENT IN STREAM FLOW DURING THE

PAST WEEK DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL. STREAM FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RUN 

WELL BELOW AVERAGE DURING THE NEXT ONE TO TWO WEEKS. 

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON SEPTEMBER 15TH OR SOONER IF 

NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND

AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES...

US DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML

NOAA DROUGHT PAGE...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

US DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

NORTHEAST REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...HTTP://WWW.NRCC.CORNELL.EDU

ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV

US GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV

US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS...HTTP://WWW.USACE.ARMY.MIL

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL

INFORMATION...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS

AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS

STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...

STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION

STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

810 MAIN ST

CARIBOU ME 04736

PHONE...207-492-0180

CARWEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$

CB

Tropical Depression Laura Approaches The Region

000

WTNT33 KWNH 290252

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

Tropical Depression Laura Advisory Number  37

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   AL132020

1000 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

...LAURA CONTINUING TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...

...FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY...

...A FEW TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE...

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...37.7N 86.9W

ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM NE OF MEMPHIS TENNESSEE

ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM ENE OF PADUCAH KENTUCKY

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

Flash Flood Watches are posted for portions of the Tennessee

Valley and Mid Atlantic.

No coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Laura

was located near latitude 37.7 North, longitude 86.9 West. The

depression is moving toward the east near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this

motion is expected to continue through the overnight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.

Eventually, the remains of Laura will cross the central

Appalachians Saturday, before becoming absorbed by an approaching

cold front that is forecast to move off the mid-Atlantic coastline

by late Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL: Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, with maximum

amounts to 5 inches forecast across western and central Kentucky

and Tennessee, and south into northern Alabama and Mississippi.

One to 2 inches, with isolated totals to 4 inches will be

possible over southern Louisiana, Mississippi, and

Alabama.

One to 3 inches possible over the central and southern Appalachians

and the mid-Atlantic states through Saturday.

This rainfall will continue to cause isolated flash and urban

flooding, and small streams and creeks to overflow their banks

across the aforementioned regions. Minor to moderate river flooding

is occurring or forecast in Louisiana, Arkansas, and northern

Mississippi.

WIND:  Gusty winds will accompany the tropical depression as it

moves along the Lower Ohio Valley through tonight.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes remain possible overnight, mainly over

the Tennessee Valley. The risk for a couple of tornadoes should

redevelop Saturday afternoon and evening over parts of the

mid-Atlantic from Virginia to North Carolina.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$

Forecaster Wpc Forecaster

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0300Z 37.7N  86.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND

 12H  29/1200Z 38.2N  82.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND/REMNT LOW

 24H  30/0000Z 38.3N  74.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND/REMNT LOW

 36H  30/1200Z 38.5N  69.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

 48H  31/0000Z 41.5N  62.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 60H  31/1200Z 43.5N  53.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 72H  01/0000Z...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

000

FXUS61 KCAR 290118

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

918 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will cross the region overnight. Low pressure

will cross the region later Saturday into Sunday. High pressure

will build across the region Monday into Tuesday. A cold front

will approach Wednesday.

&&......

Previous discussion:

High pressure will cross the region tonight while low pressure

tracks east from the Great Lakes. After a mostly clear evening,

clouds will increase from southwest to northeast across the forecast

area overnight. The low will track east toward the forecast area

Saturday while drawing a warm front north across the Gulf of

Maine toward the Downeast coast late. Overrunning rain will

expand northeast across the forecast area Saturday, with

increasing isentropic lift to the north of the warm front. The

heavier rains Saturday will occur across Downeast areas where

moisture convergence and lift is better focused near the

approaching low and warm front. Have also included the chance

of afternoon thunderstorms across central and Downeast portions

of the forecast area. Moisture from the remnants of Laura will

also be drawn north toward Downeast regions where precipitable

water values approach 2 inches later Saturday. Across northern

areas, a steadier rain will develop during the afternoon. Low

temperatures tonight will be dependent on how rapidly the clouds

thicken. Skies should remain mostly clear across northern Maine

through much of the night along with light winds which will

support favorable radiational cooling conditions. Generally

expect low temperatures across northern areas to range from the

upper 30s to lower 40s tonight. However, locally colder mid 30s

are possible across the normally colder northwest valley

locations. Localized mid 30s could also occur in the normally

coldest valley and low lying locations across the remainder of

northern Maine. Localized patchy frost could occur in the

normally coldest areas across northern Maine later tonight.

High temperatures Saturday will range from the lower to mid 60s

north, to the mid 60s Downeast.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

Upr trof wl be digging into ern Quebec Sat evening while at the sfc

assoc sfc low wl be nr Montreal. Locally hvy rainfall wl hv come to

an end by that point, though moderate rain may continue acrs sern

areas as RRQ of H2 jet streak lifts thru Downeast thru about

midnight. Showers shut off pretty quickly as drier air works in fm

the west by late evening. Low-level moisture remains acrs the region

until drier dwpts are able to sneak in aft 12z. This leads to a

soupy airmass Sat night with patchy-areas of fog expected. Min temps

wl drop into the u40s acrs the northwest, closest to the drier air,

with nr 60s over Downeast.

Sunday wl feature just slightly warmer temps than Sat as little cold

air advection exists bhnd fropa with winds rmng out of the west. Upr

lvl low crosses the Crown Sun aftn and upr lvl cold pool wl lead to

chc showers onsetting drg the day. Low shifts to the northeast

overnight with showers coming to and end twd midnight Sun night.

Skies wl begin to clr late and depending on timing of clearing,

cannot rule out u30s in the North Woods with temps elsewhere

dropping into the 40s.

For Monday ridge wl be building in fm the west with mosunny skies

expected everywhere. Maxes wl be warmer than Sun`s with mid-60s acrs

nrn areas and continuing nr 70 over Downeast.....

9:53 PM ADT Friday 28 August 2020

Special weather statement in effect for:

Halifax Metro and Halifax County West

Total rainfall: 30 to 40 mm except locally higher amounts possibly reaching 60 mm.

Locations: Nova Scotia, particularly southwestern regions as well as areas along the Atlantic Coast.

Time span: Saturday night until Sunday afternoon.

Remarks: Rain is expected to begin early Saturday night and may become heavy, at times, especially over southwestern regions and areas along the Atlantic Coast. The rain will taper off later in the day on Sunday.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@canada.ca or tweet reports using #NSStorm.