August 2019 Climate Summary for Northern and Eastern Maine

...AUGUST 2019 NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE CLIMATE NARRATIVE...

AUGUST 2019 FINISHED WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR THE REGION AS A WHOLE AND RAINFALL THAT RANGED FROM BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS THE NORTH TO MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS.

AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM -0.3 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE AT
HOULTON TO +1.5 DEGREES AT CARIBOU WITH OTHER CLIMATE LOCATIONS
MOSTLY BETWEEN AVERAGE AND +1.0. UNUSUAL FOR AUGUST WERE NO 90 DEGREE
HIGH TEMPS NOT EVEN AT MILLINOCKET OR BANGOR. MOST LOCATIONS
EXPERIENCED MONTHLY HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S AND A NEAR NORMAL
COMPLIMENT OF 80+ DEGREE HIGH TEMPS.

RAINFALL, HOWEVER, VARIED WIDELY FROM AS LITTLE AS 65 PERCENT OF
AVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH TO AROUND 100 PERCENT OF AVERAGE OVER
CENTRAL AREAS RAMPING QUICKLY UPWARDS TO 250 PERCENT OF NORMAL OVER
SOME DOWNEAST LOCATIONS. AT BANGOR, THE MONTHLY TOTAL OF 7.54 INCHES
FINISHED 2ND TO THE 8.32 INCH TOTAL RECORDED IN 2011. THE LARGEST
DAILY CONTRIBUTION AT BANGOR OCCURRED ON THE 8TH WHEN A RECORD 3.11
INCHES OF RAINFALL FELL. THIS WAS THE 2ND GREATEST AUGUST DAILY
TOTAL AT BANGOR, WITH 3.67 INCHES ON AUGUST 19TH 1965 REMAINING THE
WETTEST AUGUST DAY OF RECORD AT BANGOR.

MONTHLY EVAPORATION AT CARIBOU WAS 4.67 INCHES, A LITTLE MORE THAN 2
INCHES HIGHER THAN NORTHERN MAINE MONTHLY RAINFALL TOTALS. THIS
RESULTED IN DRY SOIL CONDITIONS, SEMI BROWN GRASS LAWNS, AND LOW
RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS FOR NORTHERN AND SOMEWHAT FOR CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS WAS NOT THE CASE, THOUGH, FOR DOWNEAST
AREAS WHERE RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDED THIS PROXY EVAPORATION VALUE.

Category Three Hurricane Dorian a Potential Long Range Threat to the Region Update Two

000
WTNT45 KNHC 030252
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

Dorian continues to pummel Grand Bahama Island this evening.  The
hurricane still has an impressive presentation in satellite and
radar images, however, there have been occasional dry slots
observed in the western part of the eyewall.  Both the NOAA and
Air Force Hurricane Hunters provided excellent data in Dorian this
evening, and based primarily on the flight-level wind data from the
aircraft, the initial intensity of Dorian is set to 115 kt.  The
westernmost outer rain bands are reaching the east coast of south
Florida and producing gusty winds.

The major hurricane has been stationary much of the day.  The reason
the cyclone has moved very little is because it is caught in weak
steering currents between high pressure ridges to its east and
northwest and a trough to its north.  This weak flow should result
in a very slow and likely erratic northwest drift through at least
early Tuesday.  After that time, the models are in general agreement
that the ridge to the east and trough to the north will amplify.
This change in the steering pattern should cause Dorian to move a
little faster to the north on Wednesday and to the northeast on
Thursday and Friday.  The NHC track forecast remains consistent and
continues to show the core of Dorian offshore, but dangerously close
to the east coast of the U.S. from Florida to North Carolina during
the next 3 days or so. This track forecast is largely an update of
the previous one and it is in good agreement with the various
consensus models.  Users are reminded that the hurricane is not a
point, and that life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force
winds extend far from the center. Regardless of the exact forecast
track, Dorian is likely to produce strong winds and a
life-threatening storm surge along a portion of the U.S. east coast
from Florida through the Carolinas.

The intensity models are in agreement that Dorian should slowly
lose strength during the next several days due to a gradual
increase in wind shear and perhaps drier air.  Regardless of the
details of the intensity forecast, the bottom line is that Dorian is
expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it tracks very near the
east coast of the U.S. from Florida to North Carolina during the
next few days.  The NHC intensity forecast is the same as the
previous one and close to the HCCA and IVCN guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Devastating winds and storm surge will continue to affect Grand
Bahama Island for several more hours.  Everyone there should remain
in shelter.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds
are expected along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts
of Georgia and South Carolina, regardless of the exact track of
Dorian's center. Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of
the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow
advice given by local emergency officials.

3. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force
winds continues to increase along the coast of North Carolina.
Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local
emergency officials.

4. Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods,
are expected over northern portions of the Bahamas and coastal
sections of the southeast and lower mid-Atlantic regions of the
United States through Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 26.9N  78.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 27.1N  78.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 27.9N  79.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 29.2N  79.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  05/0000Z 30.6N  79.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  06/0000Z 33.7N  77.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  07/0000Z 38.0N  71.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  08/0000Z 45.4N  61.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

000
FXUS61 KCAR 022250
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
650 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front will cross the region overnight. High pressure
will build across the region Tuesday. Another cold front will
approach Tuesday night and move through late Wednesday. High
pressure will build across the area Thursday into Friday. Dorian
will track south of the Gulf of Maine Friday night into
Saturday......


.....LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

High pressure cresting over the area Thursday night will bring
clear, calm and cold conditions with patchy frost possible over the
north and some fog likely on the rivers. This will be followed by a
mostly sunny and cool day on Friday. Our focus then turns to the
eventual track of hurricane Dorian. The GFS continues to be the most
ominous model showing a ridge quickly popping over the area as
energy digs in behind the hurricane to lift the storm northeast
toward western Nova Scotia. This would bring significant wind and
heavy rain Downeast. The GFS, however, is the outlier with the
Canadian, ECMWF, hurricane ensembles and current hurricane forecast
taking the storm well south of Nova Scotia resulting in a minimal
effect to our region except perhaps high surf along the coast
Saturday. Cool high pressure will follow Sunday into Monday with
breezy conditions in the wrap around on Sunday along with some
clouds over the north, and sunshine on Monday as high pressure
crests over.....

Catastrophic Category Four Hurricane Dorian a Potential Long Range Threat to the Region Update One

000
WTNT35 KNHC 021753
TCPAT5

BULLETIN

Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 37A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND CATASTROPHIC WINDS CONTINUE
OVER GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 78.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Lantana to the Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to south of Lantana
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to the Savannah River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas
* Jupiter Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to the Altamaha Sound Georgia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along southeast coast of the United States
should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional
watches may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 78.4 West. Dorian is moving very
slowly toward the west-northwest near 1 mph (2 km/h).  A slow
westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next
day or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest and
north. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane
Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama Island through much of
today and tonight.  The hurricane will then move dangerously close
to the Florida east coast late tonight through Wednesday evening and
then move dangerously close to the Georgia and South Carolina coasts
on Wednesday night and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Dorian is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Although gradual weakening is
forecast, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during
the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).  Sustained winds of 56 mph (91 km/h) with a gust to
69 mph (111 km/h) was recently reported at a NOAA Coastal Marine
observing site at Settlement Point on the west end of Grand Bahama
Island.  A wind gust to 48 mph (78 km/h) was recently report at
Juno Beach Pier, Florida.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 938 mb (27.70 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Catastrophic hurricane conditions continue on Grand Bahama
Island.  Do not venture out into the eye, as winds will suddenly
increase after the eye passes.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area
in Florida by late tonight or Tuesday.  Hurricane conditions are
possible in the Hurricane Watch area on Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm
warning area today and Tuesday, and are possible in the Tropical
Storm watch area by tonight.

STORM SURGE:  A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on Grand Bahama Island.  Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Water levels
should very slowly subside on the Abaco Islands during the day.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Lantana to the Savannah River...4 to 7 ft
North of Deerfield Beach to Lantana...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of
Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through late this week:

Northwestern Bahamas...12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches.
Central Bahamas...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals
of 6 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula through Georgia...4 to 8
inches, isolated 10 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF:  Large swells are affecting east-facing shores of the Bahamas
and the Florida east coast, and will spread northward along the
southeastern United States coast during the next few days.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES:  Isolated tornadoes are possible this afternoon into
tonight along the immediate coast of east-central Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

000
FXUS61 KCAR 021621
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1221 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019

.SYNOPSIS...

A weak area of low pressure will cross the region today and
be followed by a cold front tonight. High pressure crosses the
region Tuesday. A cold front crosses Maine Wednesday. High
pressure crosses the region Thursday into Friday as Dorian
remains south of the area......

.....LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

The cold front will push off the coast Wed evening and will be
followed by high pressure building toward northern Maine from
Canada.  The high should settle over the area by Fri morning.
Generally dry/cool weather will follow for Thu into Fri with the
potential for frost in the northwest valleys Fri morning. Did go on
the colder side of the guidance with lows near 30F at Estcourt
Station, and did add patchy frost and a small area of areas of
frost late Thu night, mainly in the valleys of zones 1 3, and
4.

Attention turns to Dorian.  The operational GFS and ECMWF have
Dorian near or south of Nova Scotia by 12Z Sat; however, a
review of the 50 ECMWF ensemble members from the 12Z/1st
indicate this as a strong outlier with the majority of the
members still having Dorian near South Carolina or along/off the
Middle Atlantic coast by 12Z Sat. The past two runs of the GFS
ensembles are further north like the operational run, however,
most members are further east than the operational run. The
latest 00z GFS run would certainly be a worst case scenario with
a 962 mb low moving up the Bay of Fundy. That said, confidence
on impacts in our FA remain very low at this time. If the storm
does end remaining well south of the area by Fri night it would
very likely get picked up and carried out well to the south of
our FA at some point later next weekend. For now will not have
anything higher than chance Pops Down east and slight chance
across the north......

&&