Friday, September 16, 2011

Mid-September Atlantic Canadian Hybridstorm, Including Hurricane Maria Update Four














WOCN31 CWHX 162345
Tropical cyclone information statement updated by the Canadian
Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 8:52 PM NDT Friday
16 September 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Tropical cyclone information statement for:
      Labrador
      Newfoundland.

      For post-tropical storm Maria.

      This is the final statement by the Canadian Hurricane Centre on
      This storm.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==discussion==
Hurricane Maria made landfall as a category-one hurricane in the cape
st.  Mary's/Argentia area of the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland
around 3:30/4:00 PM local time on Friday.  This was very close to the
forecast track issued late Thursday when it became apparent that the
centre of the storm was going to track farther to the west over land.
Strongest winds with the storm were to the right of its track/centre.
It turns out that the highest winds were far enough from the centre
at landfall that they did not pass over land.  The maximum wind jet
was just offshore to the east of the Avalon Peninsula.  High winds
and some tree damage was forecast for the Avalon region but in the
end was spared the worst of this storm.

The remnant eye of Maria covered most of Placentia Bay and up into
the Clarenville area before dusk on Friday.  Winds diminished to
light as the eye passed, then picked-up from the west as skies
clouded over again.

This storm was very much a close call for the island.  Offshore winds
at one of Environment Canada's buoys were blowing hurricane-force
(120-130 km/h) for at least 2 hours.  The buoy was situated about 180
kilometres to the right of the storm's track.  Narrow bands of cloud
in satellite images revealed that the high winds ended up tracking 50
to 80 kilometres east of Cape Race and St John's.  Had the centre of
Maria made landfall on the Burin Peninsula, these high winds would
have spread over the eastern part of the Avalon region.  Not only is
predicting the track of the storm a challenge, but so too is the
location of the maximum winds that were moving away from the storm
centre.  This is a well-known characteristic of hurricanes that make
the transition to post-tropical, but the rate at which those winds
shift away from the track is very difficult to even measure or
observe by weather satellites - especially over the ocean.

Winds did gust to 100 km/h at a few exposed locations around the
Avalon including a peak wind of 103 km/h at cape pine near st.
Shotts by a privately-run weather station.  Incidentally, this site
measured the highest gusts during hurricane igor of 172 km/h.
Cape Race had wind gusts to 100 km/h.  St. John's experienced wind
gusts near 80 km/h - much less than igor's 120 km/h almost a year
ago.

The storm surge was not significant - registering near 60 cm at
Argentia at low tide early Friday evening.  Since the storm was
moving so fast, there was little time for the wind to cause water to
pile-up in the bays.

Rainfall amounts were near 60 millimetres on the Burin Peninsula and
along the south coast.  St Lawrence received 63 millimetres and
Burgeo 61 millimetres.  Only 13 millimetres fell at St. John's due
partly to the dry air that moved into the centre of the hurricane as
it was undergoing transition to post-tropical.  Also the storm's very
fast speed of travel helped to reduce the total rainfall.

END/FOGARTY

Mid-September Atlantic Canadian Hybridstorm, Including Hurricane Maria Update Three










000
WTNT34 KNHC 161431
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER  40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 16 2011

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND

...AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.3 WEST. MARIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 52 MPH...83 KM/H.  THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARIA SHOULD PASS NEAR OR OVER
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  MARIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  MARIA SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER
CROSSING NEWFOUNDLAND AND LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY TONIGHT. 

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
CANADIAN BUOY 44141 RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 47 MPH...
76 KM/H...WITH A PEAK GUST OF 67 MPH...108 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE
CANADIAN BUOY NETWORK IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.

Ramea - Connaigre
10:51 AM NDT Friday 16 September 2011
Rainfall warning for
Ramea - Connaigre continued

Rain is forecast to continue today. Amounts of 50 to 90 millimetres are expected with the heaviest rain along the south coast.

This is a warning that significant rainfall is occurring in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

At 9:30 AM NDT hurricane Maria was located about 130 kilometres east-southeast of Sable Island. The latest forecast track takes Maria across the isthmus this afternoon. Maria will then merge with a large non-tropical low off Labrador on Saturday.

Rain ahead of Maria is expected to continue today and be heavy at times throughout the day. 60 to 90 millimetres of rain is forecast for the south coast with lesser amounts elsewhere.

Maria will also bring strong winds to Eastern Newfoundland today. Southwesterly winds gusting 100-120 km/h will develop for the Avalon Peninsula as the system nears. Also northeasterly winds briefly gusting to 100 km/h will develop for the Burin and Bonavista peninsulas as Maria passes.

As Maria merges with the Labrador system on Saturday expect strong west to southwesterly winds gusting 100-110 km/h to develop for the west coast, Northern Peninsula and Northeast Coast early Saturday morning.

Bay of Exploits
10:51 AM NDT Friday 16 September 2011
Wind warning for
Bay of Exploits continued

Winds gusting to 100-120 km/h are expected.

This is a warning that potentially damaging winds are expected in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

At 9:30 AM NDT hurricane Maria was located about 130 kilometres east-southeast of Sable Island. The latest forecast track takes Maria across the isthmus this afternoon. Maria will then merge with a large non-tropical low off Labrador on Saturday.

Rain ahead of Maria is expected to continue today and be heavy at times throughout the day. 60 to 90 millimetres of rain is forecast for the south coast with lesser amounts elsewhere.

Maria will also bring strong winds to Eastern Newfoundland today. Southwesterly winds gusting 100-120 km/h will develop for the Avalon Peninsula as the system nears. Also northeasterly winds briefly gusting to 100 km/h will develop for the Burin and Bonavista peninsulas as Maria passes.

As Maria merges with the Labrador system on Saturday expect strong west to southwesterly winds gusting 100-110 km/h to develop for the west coast, Northern Peninsula and Northeast Coast early Saturday morning.

Mid-September Atlantic Canadian Hybridstorm, Including Hurricane Maria Update Two











10:51 AM NDT Friday 16 September 2011
Wind warning for
Port Saunders and the Straits continued

Persons in or near this area should be on the lookout for adverse weather conditions and take necessary safety precautions. Watch for updated statements.

Please refer to the latest public forecasts for further details and continue to monitor the situation through your local radio and television stations or Weatheradio.

000
WTNT34 KNHC 161155
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  39A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011
800 AM AST FRI SEP 16 2011

...WINDS ALREADY INCREASING OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA...
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 42.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.2 WEST.  MARIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 45 MPH...72 KM/H.  THIS GENERAL MOTION
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND ADDITIONAL
ACCELERATION BY TONIGHT.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
MARIA SHOULD PASS NEAR OR OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND
THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  MARIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE
MARIA MOVES OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND LATER TODAY.  SOME
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED BY TONIGHT...AND MARIA COULD BE ABSORBED
WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE BY SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.