Tuesday, September 03, 2019

Hurricane Dorian (Category Two) moves North Update One































000
WTNT45 KNHC 040256
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

Dorian's structure has changed significantly during the past day or
so.  Satellite and Doppler radar images show that the inner core has
become rather broad with a large ragged eye of at least 30 n mi
diameter.  Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate
that the maximum winds and minimum pressure have held steady since
this afternoon, and based on that information, the initial
intensity is held at 95 kt, but this could be a little generous.
The aircraft data and surface observations indicate that the wind
field is expanding in size with tropical-storm-force and
hurricane-force winds extending up to 150 n mi and 50 n mi from the
center, respectively.  NOAA data buoy 41010 just northeast of the
center has been reporting sustained winds as high as 60 kt with
gusts to 78 kt, and seas over 30 ft.

Dorian is finally on the move again, and the latest initial motion
estimate is 340 degrees at 5 kt.  Dorian is being steered by the
flow between a mid-level ridge to the east and broad troughing to
its north.  A northwest to north motion with some increase in
forward speed is expected through Wednesday, taking the core of
Dorian just offshore and parallel to the east coast of Florida
during that time.  Thereafter, a faster motion toward the northeast
is predicted as a series of shortwave troughs move across the
northeastern U.S.  This should take the core of the hurricane
very near, or possibly over, the coasts of South and North Carolina
on Thursday and Friday.  After it passes the Outer Banks, the
hurricane is forecast to accelerate northeastward in the stronger
mid-latitude flow toward the Canadian Maritimes this weekend.
The NHC track forecast is largely unchanged and near the middle of
the tightly packed guidance envelope.

The hurricane is in a favorable environment of low wind shear, high
moisture, and warm SSTs, and it is expected to stay in these
conditions until it nears the Carolina coast.  Therefore, Dorian is
expected to remain about the same intensity during the next couple
of days.  After that time, an increase in shear from the
mid-latitude trough and drier air should cause Dorian to slowly
weaken.  The GFS and ECMWF models both show Dorian becoming an
extratropical system by 96 hours, and the official forecast follows
those solutions. As this system gains latitude, the wind field is
expected to expand even more.  Therefore, even if Dorian does not
make landfall, hurricane-force winds are expected to reach portions
of the coast from central Florida to North Carolina.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected
along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts of Georgia,
South Carolina, and North Carolina, regardless of the exact track of
Dorian's center.  Water levels could rise well in advance of the
arrival of strong winds.  Residents in these areas should follow
advice given by local emergency officials.

2. The risk of wind and rain impacts along portions of the Virginia
coast and the southern Chesapeake Bay are increasing.  Residents in
these areas should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian.

3. The flash flood threat will increase overnight along the Florida
east coast, then spread up the southeast and mid Atlantic coast
beginning Wednesday.  There is a moderate risk of flash flooding
from coastal Georgia through the eastern portions of South and North
Carolina Wednesday and Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 28.4N  79.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 29.4N  79.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 30.7N  79.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 31.9N  79.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  06/0000Z 33.3N  78.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  07/0000Z 37.1N  72.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  08/0000Z 43.3N  62.7W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  09/0000Z 51.5N  52.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

FXUS61 KCAR 040147
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
947 PM EDT Tue Sep 3 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will exit across the Maritimes overnight. A cold
front will cross the region Wednesday. High pressure will build
across the area Thursday into Friday. Dorian will track south of
the Gulf of Maine Friday night into Saturday. High pressure
will build toward the region Sunday........

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Our focus Friday night into Saturday will be on hurricane Dorian and
any effects the system may have on our area. Current guidance and
the official hurricane track take the system about 250 miles south
of the Downeast coast Saturday morning. This may be close enough for
clouds to move onto the Downeast coast late Friday night and some
wind and rain to brush the coast on Saturday. The biggest effect
along the coast may be high seas, mainly during the morning and
midday Saturday, which could reach 6 to 9 feet. All interests
Downeast and on our offshore waters are advised to follow forecast
updates this week as the track is still uncertain and subject to
some change. Dorian will likely quickly continue east, south of Nova
Scotia late Saturday into Saturday night as a corridor of dry air
and north winds follow behind the departing storm. A shortwave
trough diving in from the northwest may then bring increasing
clouds, mostly over the north, late Saturday night with some spotty
showers possible over the north by early Sunday morning. Otherwise,
Sunday will likely be mostly cloudy over the north as moisture
pooled in the approaching trough passes across. Downeast should
remain drier with a partly sunny sky. Weak high pressure should then
build in to bring partly cloudy and cool weather early next
week.........

Hurricane Dorian weakens to a Category Two, finally moves North






















Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Caribou ME
355 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2019

MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-040800-
Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-
Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-
Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-
Interior Hancock-Central Washington-Coastal Hancock-
Coastal Washington-Southern Piscataquis-Northern Washington-
355 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Highlands Maine,
Coastal DownEast Maine, Far Eastern Maine, Far Northern Maine,
Interior DownEast Maine, North Woods Maine and Penobscot Valley
Maine.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A cold front will cross the region Wednesday afternoon and evening.
There will be the chance of thunderstorms, and any thunderstorms that
develop may contain gusty wind.

Hurricane Dorian is expected to track up the east Coast mid to late
week. The storm is expected to pass south of the Gulf of Maine
Saturday. The wind will likely strengthen out of the northeast along
and near the coast. The best chance of heavier rain will be along
the Downeast coast and across Washington County. Please continue to
monitor the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center and
your local National Weather Service Forecast Office in Caribou.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

$$

000
FXUS61 KCAR 031652
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1252 PM EDT Tue Sep 3 2019

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will build across the region today. A cold front
will cross the area late Wednesday. High pressure will build
across the area Thursday into Friday. Dorian will track south of
the Gulf of Maine Friday night into Saturday.
&&

.....LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

Thursday night is shaping up as a mainly clear and chilly night
as high pressure continues to build east from Quebec province.
Looks like we will be looking at another potential frost
Thursday night across the colder valleys of Northwest Maine and
we will likely need frost advisories for some areas of the far
north.

Friday will be a dry day with highs a bit below normal for this
time of year. Clouds will be on the increase later Friday as the
attention then turns to eventual track of Dorian. The 00z runs
of the operational GFS/EC take Dorian just to the south of and
then across eastern Nova Scotia. The 00z Canadian is even a bit
farther east then the GFS/EC. Most of the GFS ensembles also
keep Dorian well to our south and east. Please refer to the
latest official forecast information on Dorian from the National
Hurricane Center.

The remnants of Dorian will then move away from the region
Saturday night and Sunday. High pressure is expected to build
toward the region early next week............

000
WTNT45 KNHC 031451
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

Recent radar and aircraft data show that Dorian has finally begun to
move northwestward, but dangerous winds and life-threatening storm
surge will continue over Grand Bahama Island for much of today.  The
eye has become cloud filled in infrared and visible satellite
imagery.  While aircraft and radar data indicate that the eye has
increased in size, it is also a bit more ragged.  Recent reports
from reconnaissance aircraft and data buoys indicate that overall
wind field of the hurricane is slowly expanding, while the peak
winds have come down a little more.  The latest reports from the
aircraft support an initial intensity of 95 kt.  As Dorian moves
near the east coast of Florida during the next day or two, little
overall change in intensity is anticipated.  After that time,
increasing shear should result in a gradual decrease in the peak
wind speed while the hurricane gains latitude and grows in size.
The official forecast is in good agreement with the intensity
consensus models.

The initial motion estimate is 320/2 kt.  A shortwave trough moving
into the Great Lakes region is forecast by the global models to
amplify a deep-layer trough along the east coast of the United
States on Wednesday.  This should allow Dorian to begin moving
slightly faster toward the north-northwest during the next 36 hours,
followed by a northward and then northeastward motion near or over
the coasts of South and North Carolina.  After moving offshore of
the Outer Banks, Dorian should get caught in the mid-latitude
westerlies and accelerate northeastward.  The NHC track is along the
western edge of the interpolated track models through 36 hours,
closer to what is depicted in the various global fields. After that
time, the official forecast is near a blend of the faster GFS and
slower ECMWF models.

Although the official forecast does not show Dorian making landfall
along the Florida east coast, the increasing size of Dorian's wind
field along with any deviation to the left of the forecast track
will bring hurricane-force winds onshore along portions of the
Florida east coast.

The new forecast has necessitated numerous changes to watches
and warnings along the southeastern United States coast.

Key Messages:

1. Dangerous winds and storm surge will continue to affect Grand
Bahama Island for several more hours.  Everyone there should remain
in shelter.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected
along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts of Georgia
and South Carolina, regardless of the exact track of Dorian's
center. Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the
arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow
advice given by local emergency officials.

3. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force
winds continues to increase along the coast of North Carolina.
Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local
emergency officials.

4. The flash flood threat will increase today and tonight along the
Florida peninsula, then spread up the southeast and mid-Atlantic
coast during the middle and latter part of the week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 27.1N  78.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 27.9N  79.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 29.2N  79.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 30.7N  79.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  05/1200Z 32.1N  79.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  06/1200Z 35.3N  75.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  07/1200Z 40.5N  66.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  08/1200Z 48.0N  57.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown