Hurricane Larry (Category One) Clobbering Newfoundland
452
WTNT32 KNHC 110248
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 10 2021
...CENTER OF LARRY TO MOVE OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, A DANGEROUS STORM
SURGE, AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO THAT AREA TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...46.8N 54.9W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM W OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 47 MPH...76 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Newfoundland from Arnold's Cove to Jones Harbour
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Newfoundland from Francois to west of Arnold's Cove
* Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Jones Harbor to Fogo
Island
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.
Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the
progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 46.8 North, longitude 54.9 West. Larry is moving
toward the north-northeast near 47 mph (76 km/h). A very rapid
motion toward the north-northeast or northeast is expected through
Saturday night. On the forecast track, the center of Larry will
be moving across southeastern Newfoundland during the next few
hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before landfall in
Newfoundland. After landfall, Larry is expected to become a strong
extratropical low by Saturday morning before it merges with
another low over the Labrador Sea on Sunday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255
miles (405 km). A station at Cape St. Mary's, Newfoundland,
relayed by amateur radio, recently reported sustained winds of
84 mph (135 km/h) and a wind gust of 97 mph (156 km/h) at an
unknown elevation.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages
WIND: Hurricane conditions are now spreading across the hurricane
warning area in southeastern Newfoundland, and tropical storm
conditions are also spreading across other portions of the
hurricane warning area. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
begin in the tropical storm warning area in southeastern
Newfoundland during the next few hours.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
coastal flooding within the warning areas in southeastern
Newfoundland.
SURF: Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada through
Saturday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
RAINFALL: Heavy rains from Larry will move quickly across eastern
Newfoundland tonight, producing 1 to 2 inches of rain.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Beven
000
WTNT42 KNHC 110248
TCDAT2
Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 10 2021
Satellite imagery and data from Canadian radars indicate that Larry
is maintaining good central convective banding in the northeastern
semicircle, and based on this it is still a tropical cyclone at
this time. The maximum intensity is held at 70 kt based mainly on
recently-received scattterometer data showing 64-67 kt winds to the
east and southeast of the center. Surface observations indicate
that tropical storm conditions are spreading into southeastern
Newfoundland, and hurricane condition should move onshore during
the next few hours as the center makes landfall.
After landfall, Larry is expected to quickly lose its tropical
cyclone characteristics and become a strong extratropical low over
the Labrador Sea. The cyclone is forecast to dissipate after 24 h
as it merges with a developing mid-latitude low currently to its
northwest.
Larry is moving rapidly toward the north-northeast with an initial
motion of 030/41. This general motion should continue until Larry
merges with the other low pressure area. The new official forecast
track is little changed from the previous track and is in the
middle of the tightly clustered guidance models.
Key Messages:
1. Larry will move over portions of southeastern Newfoundland
during the next several hours as it undergoes transition to a
hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. Hurricane conditions, a
dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected in portions
of southeastern Newfoundland where a Hurricane Warning in effect.
2. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the
Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and
Atlantic Canada through Saturday night. These swells will cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers
and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the
guidance of lifeguards and local officials.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0300Z 46.8N 54.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 51.9N 49.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 12/0000Z 56.8N 44.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
posted by Advackia at 8:09 PM
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