Lee Now Extratropical (Tropical Storm Force) Pounds The Maritimes And Maine

000

WTNT33 KNHC 170241

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee Advisory Number  47

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023

1100 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2023

...LEE NEAR THE COAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK...

...STRONG WINDS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND HEAVY RAINS ARE OCCURRING IN

PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...45.3N 65.5W

ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WNW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA

ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM ENE OF EASTPORT MAINE

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the coast of 

Maine.

Environment Canada has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning in 

New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada international border to south of 

Fundy National Park, from Belledune to north of Shediac, and north 

of Lower East Pubnico to west of Avonport along the Fundy Coast of 

Nova Scotia. 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* New Brunswick from the Fundy National Park to Fort Lawrence and 

  from Tidnish to Shediac including Grand Manan Island

* Nova Scotia from Fort Lawrence to Avonport and then east from 

  Lower East Pubnico to Tidnish

* Prince Edward Island

* Magdalen Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning, in this case today through

Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee 

was located near latitude 45.3 North, longitude 65.5 West. The 

post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 

mph (22 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected during the 

next day or so, taking the system across the Canadian Maritimes.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.

Steady weakening is forecast the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 290 miles (465 km)

from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion

under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the

web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring along portions of the

coasts of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia and will spread northward

within the Tropical Storm Warning areas overnight.  The strong

winds are leading to downed trees and power outages.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lee are affecting Puerto Rico,

Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the

east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada.  These swells

are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current

conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL:  Lee is expected to produce an additional 1 inch or less,

or 25 millimeters or less, from portions of eastern Maine into parts

of New Brunswick and far western Nova Scotia. This may produce

localized urban and small stream flooding.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will produce coastal flooding

within the wind warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of

onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by

large and destructive waves.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.

Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$

Forecaster Kelly/Brown

000

WTNT43 KNHC 170242

TCDAT3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee Discussion Number  47

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023

1100 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2023

Satellite imagery, surface observations and Canadian radar imagery 

indicates that the center of Lee is over the Bay of Fundy, near the 

coast of New Brunswick. Rain bands continue to spread across 

portions of far eastern Maine and New Brunswick this evening. Drier 

air is wrapping into the system and has eroded most of the 

convection on the southern and eastern side of the circulation. 

Recent observations and a recent partial ASCAT pass support an 

intensity of 50 kt for this advisory.

The forward motion of Lee is slower than earlier today, as the 

system has stated to make a northeastward turn . This northeastward 

motion with an increase in forward speed is expected late tonight 

and Sunday, as the system moves across the Canadian Maritimes. The 

NHC forecast track is very similar to the previous forecast.

Strong wind shear, dry air, and land interaction should cause

steady weakening over the next day or so as Lee spins down.  The

global models are in agreement that Lee should dissipate on Monday,

and no real changes were made to the NHC intensity forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are occurring

across portions of Atlantic Canada, and will continue to spread

northward within the Tropical Storm Warning areas. The strong winds

are leading to downed trees and power outages.

2. Any additional rainfall from Lee may produce localized urban and 

small stream flooding in portions of eastern Maine and portions of  

New Brunswick and Nova Scotia.

3. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents will continue

to affect the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the

Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, Hispaniola,  and Puerto

Rico through Sunday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0300Z 45.3N  65.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

 12H  17/1200Z 47.2N  63.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 24H  18/0000Z 50.1N  57.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 36H  18/1200Z 52.5N  48.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 48H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster Kelly/Brown

8:41 PM ADT Saturday 16 September 2023

The next intermediate information statement will be issued at 12:00 am ADT, with a full information statement again at 3:00 am ADT.

Strong post-tropical storm Lee is now located near Saint John. Lee will continue to impact the region tonight with rain or showers, strong winds, and high waves along the Atlantic coast.

1. Summary of basic information as of 9:00 pm ADT.

Location: near 45.1 degrees North 66.0 degrees West.

About 23 km south-southwest of Saint John.

Maximum sustained winds: 110 kilometres per hour.

Present movement: Northeast at 22 kilometres per hour.

Minimum central pressure: 975 millibars.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

Tropical storm warnings are in effect for much of the Maritimes and parts of Quebec.

The circulation around Post-Tropical Storm Lee is quite expansive

and impacts are occurring not only near the track but several

hundred kilometres away from it.

a. Wind.

Wind warnings are in effect for most of the Maritime provinces.

Widespread winds of 70 km/h with gusts of 90 to 100 km/h are occurring or will soon occur. Given the abundance of rainfall over the past several months, and in recent days, the ground is quite saturated therefore trees may more readily become uprooted. We have seen several reports of this today. Widespread utility outages are occurring across much of the Maritimes. Some structural damage to roofing materials and siding, as well as exterior fixtures and fencing have been reported.

b. Rainfall.

Rainfall warnings are in effect for much of New Brunswick eastern regions of the Gaspe Peninsula, Anticosti Island and portions of the Quebec Lower North Shore. The rainfall warnings for Nova Scotia have been recently ended.

In the end, rainfalls in excess of 100 mm are possible, especially in

areas near and to the left of the track. 

c. Surge/Waves.

High waves and elevated water levels are widespread due to the

large size of the storm - the most impacted areas have been along the Atlantic coast of mainland Nova Scotia and to a much lesser extent, the Fundy coast of New Brunswick. Wave conditions are also rough in the western Gulf of St Lawrence / western Northumberland Strait but should remain below warning criteria. This includes all of the east coast of New

Brunswick.

For Atlantic coastal Nova Scotia breaking waves of 4 to 6 metres (15 to 20 feet) are occurring in areas facing the open ocean. Elevated water levels (storm surge) combined with waves have resulted in coastal flooding during the high tide earlier today from Shelburne County to Guysborough County.  This could be an issue again this evening during high tide.  Water levels up to 1.5 metre (5 feet) above high tide is possible. Storm surge warnings are in effect from Shelburne County eastward to Guysborough County, causing some further beach erosion.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Storm or gale warnings are in effect for most waters. Significant wave heights up to 15 meters or so have been recorded in offshore waters south of Nova Scotia.

Forecaster: Couturier/Fogarty/Clements

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane

Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.

https://weather.gc.ca/

End/ASPC

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.

For more comprehensive information about track tables and forecast rationale, please see the Technical Discussion

Visit the Canadian Hurricane Centre to learn more about hurricanes.

ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

 

BULLETIN

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee Intermediate Advisory Number 46A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023

800 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2023

 

...STRONG WINDS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND HEAVY RAINS ARE OCCURRING IN

PORTIONS OF MAINE AND ATLANTIC CANADA...

 

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...44.7N 66.3W

ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM ESE OF EASTPORT MAINE

ABOUT 130 MI...215 KM W OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of 

Stonington, Maine.

 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Stonington, Maine northward to the U.S./Canada border

* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Belledune,

including Grand Manan Island

* All of Nova Scotia

* Prince Edward Island

* Magdalen Islands

 

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning, in this case today through

Sunday.

 

For storm information specific to your area in the United

States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please

monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service

forecast office. For storm information specific to your area

outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by

your national meteorological service.

 

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee

was located near latitude 44.7 North, longitude 66.3 West. The

post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22

km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected during the next day

or so, taking the system across the Canadian Maritimes.

 

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher

gusts. Steady weakening is forecast during the next couple of days.

 

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 320 miles (520 km)

from the center. An observing site on Beaver Island, Canada, 

reported a sustained wind of 48 mph (78 km/h) and a gust to 63 mph 

(102 km/h).

 

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion

under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the

web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

 

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring along the coasts of 

Maine and Nova Scotia and will spread northward within the Tropical 

Storm Warning areas through tonight.  The strong winds are leading 

to downed trees and power outages.

 

SURF:  Swells generated by Lee are affecting Puerto Rico,

Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the

east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada.  These swells

are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current

conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.

 

RAINFALL:  Lee may produce an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain, or

25 to 50 millimeters, over portions of eastern Maine and New

Brunswick. This may produce localized urban and small stream

flooding.

 

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will produce coastal flooding

within the wind warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of

onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by

large and destructive waves.

 

NEXT ADVISORY

------------

Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

 

$$

Forecaster Kelly/Brown

806 

WTNT33 KNHC 162036

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee Advisory Number  46

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023

500 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2023

...CORE OF LEE BRUSHING WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA...

...STRONG WINDS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND HEAVY RAINS ARE OCCURRING IN

PORTIONS OF MAINE AND ATLANTIC CANADA...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...44.5N 66.1W

ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM ESE OF EASTPORT MAINE

ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM W OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

Environment Canada has discontinued the Hurricane Watch for New

Brunswick and Nova Scotia.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Cape

Elizabeth, Maine.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Cape Elizabeth northward to the U.S./Canada border

* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Belledune,

including Grand Manan Island

* All of Nova Scotia

* Prince Edward Island

* Magdalen Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning, in this case today through

Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United

States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please

monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service

forecast office. For storm information specific to your area

outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by

your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee

was located near latitude 44.5 North, longitude 66.1 West. The

post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 16 mph (26

km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected during the next

day or so, taking the system across the Canadian Maritimes.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Steady weakening is forecast during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 320 miles (520 km)

from the center.  An observing site in Halifax, Canada, reported a

sustained wind of 52 mph (83 km/h) and a gust to 60 mph (96 km/h).

An observation in Vinal Haven, Maine, reported a sustained wind of

44 mph (71 km/h).

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 320 miles (520 km)

from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion

under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the

web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are occurring along the coasts of

Maine and Nova Scotia and will spread northward within the Tropical

Storm Warning areas through tonight.  The strong winds are leading

to downed trees and power outages.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lee are affecting Puerto Rico,

Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the

east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada.  These swells

are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current

conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL:  Lee may produce an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain, or

25 to 50 millimeters, over portions of eastern Maine and New

Brunswick. This may produce localized urban and small stream

flooding.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will produce coastal flooding

within the wind warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of

onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by

large and destructive waves.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.

Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$

Forecaster Cangialosi

ZCZC MIATCUAT3 ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

 

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee Tropical Cyclone Update

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023

410 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2023

 

...LEE MAKES LANDFALL IN FAR WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA...

 

Visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that 

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee made landfall on Long Island in Nova 

Scotia around 400 PM AST (2000 UTC) with maximum sustained winds 

estimated to be 70 mph (110 km/h).

 

SUMMARY OF 400 PM AST...2000 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...44.3N 66.3W

ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF EASTPORT MAINE

ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM W OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES

 

$$

Forecaster Mahoney/Hogsett/Cangialosi/Bucci

ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

 

BULLETIN

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee Intermediate Advisory Number 45A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023

200 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2023

 

...LEE VERY NEAR WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA...

...STRONG WINDS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND HEAVY RAINS ARE OCCURRING IN

PORTIONS OF MAINE AND ATLANTIC CANADA...

 

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...43.8N 66.4W

ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF EASTPORT MAINE

ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

 

None.

 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

 

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau,

including Grand Manan Island

* Nova Scotia from Digby to Ecum Secum

 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Portsmouth northward to the U.S./Canada border

* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Belledune,

including Grand Manan Island

* All of Nova Scotia

* Prince Edward Island

* Magdalen Islands

 

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area, in this case later today.

 

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning, in this case today through

Sunday.

 

For storm information specific to your area in the United

States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please

monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service

forecast office. For storm information specific to your area

outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by

your national meteorological service.

 

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee 

was located near latitude 43.8 North, longitude 66.4 West. The 

post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 22 mph (35 

km/h). A northward motion is expected to continue, and the center of 

Lee is forecast to make landfall in Atlantic Canada later this 

afternoon.  Lee is then expected to turn toward the northeast and 

move across Atlantic Canada tonight and Sunday.

 

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Lee is expected to be near hurricane strength when it makes 

landfall later this afternoon.  Weakening is forecast tonight

and Sunday while Lee moves across Atlantic Canada.

 

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from

the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 390

miles (630 km). An observation in Bangor, Maine, recently 

reported a wind gust of 52 mph (84 km/h).

 

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.58 inches).

 

 HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion

under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the

web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

 

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch

areas in Atlantic Canada later today.  Tropical storm conditions

are occurring along the coasts of Maine and Nova Scotia and

will spread northward within the Tropical Storm Warning areas today

and tonight.  The strong winds are leading to downed trees

and power outages.  Tropical-storm-force gusts are likely to

continue on Cape Cod for a couple of more hours.

 

SURF:  Swells generated by Lee are affecting the U.S. Virgin

Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the

Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic

Canada.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and

rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local

weather office.

 

RAINFALL:  Through tonight, Lee is expected to produce rainfall

amounts of 1 to 4 inches, or 25 to 100 millimeters over far eastern

Massachusetts,  eastern Maine, western Nova Scotia, and New

Brunswick. This could produce localized urban and small stream

flooding.

 

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will produce coastal flooding 

within the wind warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of 

onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by 

large and destructive waves.

 

 NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

 

$$

Forecaster Cangialosi

000

WTNT33 KNHC 161453

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee Advisory Number  45

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023

1100 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2023

...LEE EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL LATER TODAY...

...STRONG WINDS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND HEAVY RAINS ARE OCCURRING IN 

PORTIONS OF MAINE AND ATLANTIC CANADA...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...43.5N 66.2W

ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSE OF EASTPORT MAINE

ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

Environment Canada has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a

Tropical Storm Warning for Prince Edward Island, Magdalen Islands,

and portions of Nova Scotia and New Brunswick.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from Westport, RI 

to Portsmouth, NH, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau,

including Grand Manan Island

* Nova Scotia from Digby to Ecum Secum

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Portsmouth northward to the U.S./Canada border

* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Belledune,

including Grand Manan Island

* All of Nova Scotia

* Prince Edward Island

* Magdalen Islands

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area, in this case later today.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning, in this case today through

Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United

States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please

monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service

forecast office. For storm information specific to your area

outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by

your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee

was located near latitude 43.5 North, longitude 66.2 West. The

post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 22 mph (35

km/h). A northward motion is expected to continue, and the

center of Lee is forecast to make landfall near or just east of 

the U.S./Canada border this afternoon.  Lee is then expected to 

turn toward the northeast and move across Atlantic Canada tonight 

and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Lee is expected to be at or just below hurricane strength

when it makes landfall later today.  Weakening is forecast

tonight and Sunday while Lee moves across Atlantic Canada.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from

the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 390

miles (630 km). A sustained wind of 51 mph (82 km/h) with a 

gust to 93 mph (150 km/h) was recently reported on Grand Manan 

Island in New Brunswick, Canada.  An observation in Eastport, 

Maine, recently reported 39 mph (63 km/h) sustained winds with a 

gust to 50 mph (81 km/h).  An observation in Lunenburg in Nova 

Scotia reported a sustained wind of 50 mph (81 km/h) and a wind 

gust of 66 mph (106 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion

under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the

web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch

areas in Atlantic Canada later today.  Tropical storm conditions

are occurring along the coasts of Maine and Nova Scotia and

will spread northward within the Tropical Storm Warning areas today

and tonight.  The strong winds are leading to downed trees

and power outages.  Tropical-storm-force gusts are likely to 

continue on Cape Cod for a couple of more hours.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lee are affecting the U.S. Virgin

Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the

Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic

Canada.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and

rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local

weather office.

RAINFALL:  Through tonight, Lee is expected to produce rainfall 

amounts of 1 to 4 inches, or 25 to 100 millimeters over far eastern 

Massachusetts,  eastern Maine, western Nova Scotia, and New 

Brunswick. This could produce localized urban and small stream 

flooding.

STORM SURGE:  Water levels remain elevated along the New England 

Coast and will begin to subside after the next high tide cycle. For

information specific to your area, please see products issued by

your local National Weather Service forecast office.

A dangerous storm surge will produce coastal flooding within the

wind warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds.

Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and

destructive waves.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.

Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$

Forecaster Cangialosi