Newly minted Hurricane Hanna a future threat to the Eastern Seaboard

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE HANNA ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 PM AST MON SEP 01 2008

...HANNA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MEANDERS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA...THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HANNA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST...OR JUST EAST OF
MAYAGUANA ISLAND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

HANNA HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOUR BUT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR
TONIGHT. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TOMORROW. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK HANNA WILL BE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HANNA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM. A WIND GUST OF 61 MPH WAS
RECENTLY OBSERVED IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.

HANNA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF EASTERN CUBA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING MUDSLIDES AND FLASH FLOODING.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3-5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

SWELLS FROM HANNA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...22.2 N...72.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA

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HURRICANE HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2008

THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY FOUND A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 983 MB AND A PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 89 KT. THESE
NUMBERS INDICATE HANNA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN IN THE FACE OF
WHAT APPEARS TO BE STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS
DIFFICULT SINCE GLOBAL MODES SHOW THE SHEAR REMAINING STRONG OR
POSSIBLY INCREASING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GIVEN HANNA'S
TENACITY THUS FAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PRESUMES THAT HANNA WILL
BE ABLE TO FIGHT OFF THE SHEAR. AT DAY 5...HANNA IS FORECAST TO BE
INLAND SO WEAKENING IS SHOWN.

THE LAST FEW FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT HANNA HAS BEEN
MEANDERING. HOWEVER...A 12-HOUR AVERAGE MOTION IS SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 4 KT AND THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE. WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF HANNA NOW
DISSIPATED...THE CYCLONE'S MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW AND POSSIBLY ERRATIC. AFTER THAT...GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING BACK OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE HANNA TO TURN
NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THERE IS STILL SOME
SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS TRACK MODELS WITH POTENTIAL AREAS OF
IMPACT RANGING FROM SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. UNTIL
HANNA TAKES A MORE DEFINITIVE MOTION...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO BE
MORE SPECIFIC ABOUT THE POTENTIAL THREAT AREA. ALL INTERESTS ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2100Z 22.2N 72.6W 70 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 21.9N 72.9W 75 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 21.8N 73.5W 75 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 22.1N 73.9W 75 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 23.1N 74.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 27.0N 78.0W 85 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 31.5N 81.0W 85 KT
120HR VT 06/1800Z 39.0N 80.5W 25 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA

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Hundreds of thousands lose power as Gustav pounds coast

NEW ORLEANS, Louisiana (CNN) -- Hurricane Gustav swirled violently ashore Monday, turning lights out across the Gulf Coast and sending water over the tops of New Orleans' levees, officials said.

Water from the Industrial Canal floods a road in New Orleans after Hurricane Gustav made landfall Monday.

1 of 3 more photos » The storm's eastern bands, which generally pack the most powerful winds, also hammered Mississippi as Gustav moved to the west of New Orleans, Louisiana.

Officials in Bay St. Louis, Pass Christian, Long Beach and Biloxi reported that Gustav was flooding U.S. 90, making it impassable in parts.

In Pass Christian, Gustav blew vinyl siding off homes and damaged the recently repaired small-boat harbor. At least four boats docked there were swept onto the harbor access road, police Chief John Dubuisson said.

In Biloxi, iReporter Kevin Wise, who lives two blocks from the beach, said Gustav had pushed the Gulf waters into a highway about 100 yards from the normal shoreline.

"On the beach, it was blowing hard enough that you had to squat down to take a picture, it could pretty much throw you around," he said. Wise said he and his wife ignored mandatory evacuation orders for his area.

Entergy, the largest provider of electric power in Louisiana, said that more than 700,000 homes and businesses were without power in the region, including at least 114,000 in New Orleans. Repair crews may not get out until Wednesday because of high winds, spokesman Phil Allison said.

At 4 p.m. CT, Gustav was a Category 1 storm with sustained winds of 80 mph, the National Hurricane Center said. It was a Category 2 storm with 110-mph winds when it came ashore.

Winds were sending whitecaps over levees in New Orleans, but the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers reported no major problems. Watch Gustav ravage the coast »

There were reports of water going over the Industrial Canal levee near a railroad bridge, said Chris Macaluso, a spokesman for the Louisiana Office of Coastal Protection and Restoration. The Port of New Orleans will raise the bridge to ease pressure on the system, he said.

The Industrial Canal levee failed during Hurricane Katrina in 2005, devastating the Lower 9th Ward and neighboring St. Bernard Parish. Watch water spill over the levee »

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The Federal Emergency Management Agency said two Navy boats, each about 350 feet long, that were being scrapped at a facility on the canal broke away from their moorings Monday. Mayor Ray Nagin said the ships, and a barge that broke loose from its moorings, were pinned against a wharf in the Industrial Canal.

"If they get loose and they start to bang around on some of those canal walls, we could have a major problem," he said.

At least seven other barges had broken loose on the Mississippi River and were believed to have run aground on the West Bank, the Coast Guard reported. iReport: Watch winds rip New Orleans rooftop

Gustav made landfall Monday morning near the coastal town of Cocodrie, Louisiana, about 80 miles southwest of New Orleans.

Harvey Johnson, deputy administrator of FEMA, said that the evacuation of New Orleans and southern Louisiana "wasn't all pretty" but that as many as 40,000 people who needed government help were evacuated from the area.

President Bush, visiting the Texas Emergency Operations Center in Austin, Texas, praised government relief efforts.

"The coordination on this storm is a lot better than during Katrina," he said.

"What I look for is to determine whether or not assets are in place to help, whether or not there's coordination and whether or not there's preparation for recovery," Bush said. "To that end, I feel good about this event."

In total, almost 2 million residents evacuated the Louisiana coast, but some in New Orleans opted to brave the storm.

"It really didn't look as vicious as, obviously, Katrina did," Jack Bosma said. Watch gales batter home, reporter »

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He said the wind scattered his back gate across his yard, but his power was on, and neighbors had been congregating on his porch.

"It's really, quite honestly, basically, just like a bad storm. It doesn't seem that drastic at all," he said.

Nagin warned residents that although the storm may appear weak by Katrina standards, the New Orleans is "not out of the woods yet."

Nagin said that he had received no reports of major damage as of noon but that there still are storm surges, flooding and the risk of tornadoes.

Megan Arseneaux, 19, said in an e-mail that phone service was spotty at her East Bank home, two blocks from the Mississippi River in Harahan, Louisiana, just outside New Orleans.

"My backyard is full of leaves and debris. The wind was very intense when I woke up around 6 a.m.," she said. "As I type this, the wind has actually picked up. The rain is very harsh too." Watch wind, rain batter Jefferson Parish »

There are concerns that if Gustav moves up the Mississippi River's estuaries, some levees may not hold, resulting in severe flooding. Although many levees have been repaired and heightened since Katrina struck in 2005, all of the work won't be completed until 2011, officials said.

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The U.S. Geological Survey said Gustav has caused an almost 9-foot storm surge in Pointe a La Hache, Louisiana, about 40 miles southeast of New Orleans. Another 1 to 3 feet of surge could occur, the USGS said.

Forecasters warned that a surge of 10 feet to 14 feet would cause life-threatening flooding. Pointe a La Hache is a mere 3 feet above sea level. iReport.com: Did you stay? Share your story

Forecasters said Gustav could drench parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Arkansas and Texas in 6 to 12 inches of rain, with the possibility of 20 inches in isolated areas by Thursday.

Property damage from Gustav could total $8 billion, just 25 percent of Sunday's estimate, according to a federally supported computer projection issued Monday morning. See damage map »

Forecasters warned Monday morning that Gustav could stall over Louisiana and northeast Texas for several days, which would "exacerbate the threat of heavy rains and inland flooding."


Meanwhile, forecasters said Monday afternoon that Tropical Storm Hanna was upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane as it passed through the Bahamas. At 5 p.m. ET, Hanna had maximum sustained winds of 80 mph. The National Hurricane Center says Hanna could make landfall Friday near the Georgia/South Carolina border.

And in the far eastern Atlantic, Tropical Storm Ike formed Monday with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph, the National Hurricane Center.

Hurricane Gustav Makes Landfall in SW Louisiana as a category 2 hurricane

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HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 AM EDT MON SEP 01 2008

THE CENTER OF GUSTAV MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR
COCODRIE ABOUT 1430 UTC. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE EYE
BECAME BETTER DEFINED ON RADAR. HOWEVER...WIND DATA FROM AIR FORCE
RESERVE AND NOAA AIRCRAFT ALONG WITH DOPPLER RADAR WINDS SUGGESTS
THAT GUSTAV WEAKENED TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KT IS BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...AND
THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/13. GUSTAV IS BEING STEERED NORTHWESTWARD
BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AS A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
THE FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THROUGH 48 HR. AFTER THAT TIME...THE GUIDANCE IS NOW IN
BETTER AGREEMENT ON A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION...SO THE 72-120 HR PART
OF THE TRACK IS CHANGED FROM A WESTWARD DRIFT TO A NORTHWARD DRIFT.

GUSTAV SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND...ALTHOUGH THE WEAKENING
WILL LIKELY BE SLOW AT FIRST AS THE CENTER CROSSES THE SOUTH
LOUISIANA MARSHES. A FASTER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED IN 6-12 HR AS
THE CENTER REACHES MORE SOLID GROUND. AFTER 48 HR...GUSTAV IS
LIKELY TO SHEAR APART...WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL PORTION OF THE CYCLONE
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND LEAVING THE SURFACE CENTER BEHIND.
THUS...THE FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY 72
HR.

THE THREAT OF HIGH STORM SURGE WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LOUISIANA
COAST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...AND THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS WILL
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 29.2N 90.8W 95 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 30.3N 92.4W 70 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 02/1200Z 31.3N 93.8W 40 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 03/0000Z 31.9N 94.6W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 03/1200Z 32.4N 95.3W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 04/1200Z 33.0N 95.5W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 05/1200Z 33.5N 95.5W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 06/1200Z 34.0N 95.5W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

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