Major Hurricane Teddy (Category Three) Churns In The Atlantic - Update One
000
WTNT35 KNHC 200253
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020
...POWERFUL HURRICANE TEDDY CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD...
...CAUSING RIP CURRENTS THAT WILL AFFECT MOST WESTERN ATLANTIC
COASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 61.2W
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area, generally within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 61.2 West. Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue into Sunday. A turn toward the north is
expected by Sunday night followed by a faster northward motion early
next week. On the forecast track, Teddy will approach Bermuda on
Sunday night, and the center will pass just east of the island
Monday morning.
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Teddy is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. A weakening trend is expected to begin Sunday
night.
Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). Teddy's wind field
is likely to become even larger over the next few days.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda
beginning Sunday night and could linger into Monday night.
SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser
Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east
coast of the United States. Swells from Teddy should reach Atlantic
Canada by early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
000
WTNT45 KNHC 200254
TCDAT5
Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020
Some convective cells have been developing within Teddy's large
outer eye, and it is possible that this convection is forming an
inner eyewall. In any event, observations from an Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum winds have
decreased slightly, to near 100 kt. The hurricane is expected to
remain in a low shear environment until tomorrow evening, and to
more or less maintain its intensity for 12-24 hours. Thereafter,
increasing shear associated with an upper-level trough to the west
should cause weakening. Although the shear is predicted by the
global models to become fairly strong after 48 hours, the system
has a a very large and intense circulation so only slow weakening
is expected. By 72 hours, Teddy should merge with a frontal zone to
the east of New England and become a strong extratropical cyclone.
The official intensity forecast is close to the model consensus.
The system's wind field will likely become even larger as the wind
field of Teddy interacts within a high pressure system behind a cold
front during the next few days. This could prolong the period of
strong winds over Bermuda into Monday night.
Teddy continues on a general northwestward track or about 315/11 kt.
The hurricane should move on the western side of a subtropical high
pressure area for the next day or so, and then begin to accelerate
northward ahead of a strong mid-tropospheric trough that develops
into a cutoff low off the northeast U.S. coast in a couple of days.
The interaction of Teddy with this low will likely result in a
slight leftward bend of the track around days 2-3. In 4-5 days,
post-tropical Teddy is likely to turn north-northeastward to
northeastward in the flow on the east side of a broad 500 mb trough.
The official track forecast is a blend of the simple and corrected
dynamical model consensus predictions.
The extent of 12-foot or higher seas associated with Teddy
continues to increase. See the Key Message below regarding swells
caused by the hurricane.
Key Messages:
1. While the center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda
late Sunday or Monday, tropical storm conditions are likely on the
island beginning Sunday evening.
2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical
cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada early
next week, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from
wind, rain, and storm surge. Residents there should closely monitor
the progress of Teddy and updates to the forecast.
3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions
of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0300Z 27.3N 61.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 28.3N 62.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 29.6N 63.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 31.6N 62.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 35.7N 61.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 22/1200Z 39.7N 62.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 42.5N 62.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 24/0000Z 49.5N 56.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 25/0000Z 57.0N 42.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Pasch
000
FXUS61 KCAR 200144
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
944 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the region through Sunday and
will remain overhead Monday. Hurricane Teddy will pass east of
the area Tuesday and Tuesday night. Weak high pressure follows
for Wednesday and Thursday......
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High Impact Weather Potential: Variety of potential impacts
surrounding the approach of Hurricane Teddy. Beyond this, no
additional significant weather impacts are expected.
Pattern: Trough along the east coast will cutoff...first
steering Hurricane Teddy northward...and then nudging it
somewhat west before strengthening westerlies over Canada push
the circulation to the east with strengthening westerlies over
North America for the remainder of the week with flow from the
Pacific dominating across much of the United States favoring
temperatures moving above normal over the northeast.
After another dry and somewhat warmer day Monday under high
pressure, all eyes turn to the progress of Hurricane Teddy which
will make it/s closest approach to the region Tuesday and
Tuesday night. A well offshore solution is well-agreed upon in
the deterministic/ensemble guidance suite with the EC ensemble
just a bit west of the Canadian Ensemble...with the GEFS further
south and east with the closest approach. These differences in
outcomes are important...however with the potential for tropical
storm force winds to reach at least the marine waters. Far less
likely that this scenario would favor winds of this strength
over land...but will continue to monitor the complex interaction
of Teddy with the developing cutoff circulation to it/s west.
This type of scenario is notoriously difficult for numerical
models to handle and thus confidence is only moderate despite
the ensemble agreement.
As far as potential impacts...certainly will see a significant
increase in swell with the potential for minor coastal flooding
/ splashover / beach erosion. As mentioned by the previous
shift...in locations where rain does not fall, the dry
conditions and increasing northerly winds will favor an
increased fire risk. Certainly not expecting enough rain for a
hydro risk and...as mentioned above the threat from strong
winds, with the greatest potential threat being over coastal
Washington County.
Beyond any impact from Teddy...quiet weather returns for
Wednesday as the flow aloft looks to become increasingly
progressive with temperatures moving above seasonal norms for
the second half of the week with another moisture-starved cold
front arriving by the end of the week with a return to
seasonable temperatures next weekend..............
8:25 PM ADT Saturday 19 September 2020
Tropical cyclone information statement for:
Newfoundland and Labrador:
Burgeo - Ramea
Burin Peninsula
Channel-Port aux Basques and vicinity
Connaigre
Nova Scotia
Prince Edward Island
Québec - south:
Îles-de-la-Madeleine
For Hurricane Teddy.
The next information statement will be issued by 3:00 a.m. ADT.
Hurricane Teddy poised to impact Atlantic Canada Tuesday and Wednesday.
Hurricane Teddy will likely reach offshore waters south of Nova Scotia on Tuesday as a hurricane, and will then impact Atlantic Canada and the Gulf of St. Lawrence region as a strong post-tropical storm on Tuesday into Wednesday.
Teddy is currently a category three hurricane over the Tropical Atlantic well southeast of Bermuda. It will slowly move up during the next two days passing east of Bermuda on Monday. This is when it will begin to accelerate towards Nova Scotia. When it reaches Canadian waters south of the Maritimes it will be a category two hurricane, but is expected to be a very dangerous post-tropical storm as it moves though eastern Nova Scotia and southwestern Newfoundland.
Possible impacts:
A. Public
Rainfall could be significant, especially north and west of Teddy's track. At this point, the highest rainfall amounts are likely for eastern Nova Scotia and the south coast of Newfoundland. Most regions will see some tropical storm force winds, and south of the forecast track winds may reach hurricane force. Power outages are are likely due to breaking branches and possible tree falls, especially due to trees still having their full foliage. Every effort should be made to secure temporary structures.
B. Marine
As hurricane Teddy moves into our waters, there is a reasonable chance of hurricane force winds near and south of the track, mainly over the southern Atlantic forecast waters. There will also be large waves, again mainly over southern waters.
C. Surge/Waves
Large waves will build over southern marine waters Tuesday, and will break higher along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia and the south coast of Newfoundland where rough and pounding surf is expected. Storm surge is possible, mainly for parts of the Atlantic Coast of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, the Magdalen Islands and the south coast of Newfoundland, but it is too early to be specific about which portions of the coastline may be affected.
Forecaster(s): Couturier/Mercer.
Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Gray ME
655 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020
MEZ023-NHZ014-201000-
/O.CON.KGYX.CF.S.0012.200920T1700Z-200920T1900Z/
Coastal York-Coastal Rockingham-
655 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020
* WHAT...Some splash-over is possible. Minor flooding is
possible along the Backbay area of Hampton.
* WHERE...In New Hampshire, Coastal Rockingham County. In Maine,
Coastal York County.
* WHEN...Sunday afternoon.
* IMPACTS...Some beach erosion water on low lying roads and
property possible from breaking waves. Minor flooding is
possible in the Backbay area of Hampton.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive through flooded roadways.
&&
Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
Hampton Harbor NH
MLLW Categories - Minor 11.0 ft, Moderate 12.0 ft, Major 13.0 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.5 ft, Moderate 2.5 ft, Major 3.5 ft
Total Total Departure
Day/Time Tide Tide from Norm Waves Flood
ft MLLW ft MHHW ft ft Impact
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
19/02 PM 10.1 0.6 0.2 3-4 None
20/02 AM 10.2 0.7 0.1 3 None
20/02 PM 10.4 0.9 0.1 4 None
21/03 AM 9.9 0.4 0.2 4 None
21/03 PM 10.4 0.9 0.3 5 None
22/04 AM 9.5 -0.0 0.3 5-6 None
Seavey Island / Portsmouth NH
MLLW Categories - Minor 11.5 ft, Moderate 12.5 ft, Major 13.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 2.7 ft, Moderate 3.7 ft, Major 4.7 ft
Total Total Departure
Day/Time Tide Tide from Norm Waves Flood
ft MLLW ft MHHW ft ft Impact
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
19/02 PM 10.3 1.5 0.2 3 None
20/02 AM 10.5 1.7 0.0 3 None
20/02 PM 10.8 2.0 0.1 4 None
21/02 AM 10.2 1.4 0.2 4 None
21/03 PM 10.9 2.1 0.3 5 None
22/03 AM 9.8 1.0 0.3 5 None
&&
$$
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Caribou ME
Issued by National Weather Service Gray ME
203 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020
MEZ001>006-010-011-015-031-032-201815-
Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-
Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-
Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-
Southern Piscataquis-Northern Washington-
203 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020
...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT
SUNDAY...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Highlands Maine, Far
Eastern Maine, Far Northern Maine, North Woods Maine and Penobscot
Valley Maine.
.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
Freeze Warning.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
Freeze Warning.
As Hurricane Teddy makes its closest approach to the region on
Tuesday and Tuesday night...there is the potential for strengthening
northerly winds...building seas...and even rainfall for portions of
downeast Maine. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts from the
National Hurricane Center for the latest details.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.
$$
posted by Advackia at 8:52 PM
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