Tropical storm Cristobal expected to bring heavy rain too Nova Scotia, and offshore gales

WOCN31 CWHX 220000
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT
MONDAY 21 JULY 2008.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT

... TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 PM ADT... TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 37.8 N AND LONGITUDE 70.3 W... ABOUT 205 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 380 KM SOUTH OF CAPE COD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS... 111 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 998
MB. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 11 KNOTS... 20 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
JUL 21 9.00 PM 37.8N 70.3W 998 60 111
JUL 22 3.00 AM 39.0N 68.7W 996 60 111
JUL 22 9.00 AM 40.5N 66.8W 996 60 111
JUL 22 3.00 PM 41.9N 65.0W 990 60 111 TRANSITIONING
JUL 22 9.00 PM 43.1N 62.7W 998 55 102 TRANSITIONING
JUL 23 3.00 AM 44.1N 60.6W 999 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 23 9.00 AM 45.1N 58.0W 1000 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 23 3.00 PM 45.6N 55.4W 1000 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 23 9.00 PM 45.6N 52.6W 1000 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 24 3.00 AM 45.0N 50.1W 1002 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 24 9.00 AM 44.2N 47.5W 1002 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 24 3.00 PM 43.6N 45.1W 1011 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 24 9.00 PM 41.8N 42.8W 1012 35 65 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 100 MM ARE POSSIBLE AS CRISTOBAL
PASSES SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA ON TUESDAY. RAINFALL WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST REGIONS OF MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA BY THE
ATLANTIC STORM PREDITION CENTRE. GALES ARE EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF NOVA SCOTIA AND REMAIN OFFSHORE SO A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOT PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
THE CENTRE OF CRISTOBAL WILL MOVE OVER GEORGES BANK NEAR MIDDAY
ON TUESDAY THEN TRACK TO WESTERN SABLE MARINE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
STORM FORCE WINDS OF UP TO 60 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE
TRACK. GALES ARE FORECAST FOR OFFSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS
POSITION BASED ON NHC.

B. PROGNOSTIC
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TO A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK. WE
HAVE ADJUSTED THE TRACK SOUTHWARD BUT REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE MAJORITY OF MODEL TRACKS AS A PATH OF LEAST REGRET. WE MADE A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT OF MAX WINDS AT 22/18Z BASED LATEST NHC
INFORMATION. OTHERWISE NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY. TRANSITIONING AT
22/18Z AND 23/00Z BASED ON CONCENSUS OF PHASE SPACE FROM CMC NOGAPS
AND HWRF MODELS.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
RAINFALL GUIDANCE BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO CAPE
COD. GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY LIKELY TO RESULT FROM INTERACTION OF THE
BAROCLINIC BAND WITH CRISTOBAL PREFER TO USE A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH
TO PRECIPITATION FORECASTS.

D. MARINE WEATHER
THE RADIUS OF GALES IS EXPECTED TO BE SMALL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
TRACK. AT THIS TIME WE EXPECT GALES TO REMAIN OFF THE COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA. STORMS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO THE RIGHT OF TRACK.

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
22/00Z 60 120 60 30 20 60 0 0 0 0 0 0
22/06Z 60 120 60 40 40 60 0 0 0 0 0 0
22/12Z 60 120 60 40 40 60 0 0 0 0 0 0
22/18Z 90 135 60 20 50 75 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/00Z 120 150 75 10 50 75 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/06Z 120 150 75 0 40 60 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/12Z 100 150 75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/18Z 60 150 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24/00Z 0 120 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24/06Z 0 120 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24/12Z 0 120 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24/18Z 0 120 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
25/00Z 0 120 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

LATEST CHC TRAPPED FETCH MODEL NOT GENERATING WAVES AS LARGE AS
THE PREVIOUS RUN BUT 12 M SEAS ARE STILL PREDICTED FROM THE MODEL IN
SOUTHWESTERN WATERS.

END STEEVES/BOWYER/ROUSSEL

Tropical storm Dolly threatens SE Texas and NE Mexico

000
WTNT34 KNHC 212349
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
700 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008

...DOLLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT JOGS WESTWARD...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO
NORTHWARD...ACROSS THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED
STATES...AND ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO PORT O'CONNOR. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA
PESCA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO...AND FOR THE TEXAS
COAST FROM NORTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREAS
LATER TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.8 WEST OR ABOUT 380
MILES...610 KM...EAST OF LA CRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 405 MILES...650
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS DOLLY HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR
16 MPH...25 KM/HR. HOWEVER...A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL
BE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AND WILL BE NEAR THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST BY
WEDNESDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DOLLY IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...
ALTHOUGH THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN NEAR NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND DOLLY IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO COAST.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO TO FOUR
INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO SIX INCHES.

REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION...23.1 N...91.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

New area of Interest moving out of Africa

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS EMERGING FROM WESTERN
AFRICA INTO THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN
EXPECTED EARLIER...WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RATHER COOL.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN