Tropical Storm Elsa Barrels Up The Coast

671 

WTNT35 KNHC 090234

TCPAT5

BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number  36

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021

1100 PM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021

...ELSA APPROACHING CHESAPEAKE BAY...

...FLASH FLOODING THREAT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC AND

NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...37.6N 76.5W

ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NNW OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA

ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SW OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from Surf City,

North Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina to Sandy Hook, New Jersey

* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south

of Cobb Island

* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach

* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the

south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north

shore

* New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including

Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.

For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning

area, please see products from your local weather office.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was

located near latitude 37.6 North, longitude 76.5 West. Elsa is

moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this general

motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed

during the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, Elsa

will pass through the eastern mid-Atlantic states tonight and move

near or over the northeastern United States on Friday and Friday

night.  The system should move over Atlantic Canada by Friday night

and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher

gusts.  No significant change in strength is expected through

Friday, and Elsa is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by

Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)

mostly southeast of the center.  A WeatherFlow station on Pamlico 

Sound recently reported a sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) gusting 

to 58 mph (93 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches)

based on nearby surface observations.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and

on the web at

www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the

mid-Atlantic coast overnight.  These winds will spread northward in

the warning area over the northeastern states on Friday.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts

and impacts the rest of this week:

Over the eastern Mid Atlantic States into New England...2 to 4 

inches of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches are possible 

through Friday, which could result in limited flash and urban 

flooding for the northern Mid-Atlantic States and considerable flash 

and urban flooding in New England.  Isolated minor river flooding is 

also expected.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Elsa,

please visit the following link:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible overnight along the

Mid-Atlantic coast.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.

Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$

Forecaster Blake

000

WTNT45 KNHC 090235

TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number  36

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021

1100 PM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021

Elsa has become slightly better organized this evening.  

Convection near the center of Elsa has deepened, and the surface

pressures have fallen a few mb since this afternoon based on

observations over eastern Virginia.  Although there are no wind

reports above 40 kt during the past several hours, recent

Doppler velocity data shows stronger winds offshore of the

mid-Atlantic states, so the initial wind speed will remain 45 kt.

It appears that the early stages of extratropical transition

have begun with Elsa, with almost all of the deep convection north

of the center.  A shortwave moving out of the Great Lakes should

cause the storm to deepen on Friday but also expand in size,

resulting in the maximum winds staying about the same as they are 

now.  Elsa should transition into an extratropical cyclone within 

24 hours due to the shortwave and cold waters south of New England, 

and then gradually weaken over Atlantic Canada and northeast of 

Newfoundland after it loses its baroclinic support.  The new 

intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and the consensus 

of the global models.

The storm is moving faster to the northeast this evening and will

gradually accelerate northeastward during the next day or two due

to speedy mid-latitude southwesterly flow ahead of a broad

mid-tropospheric trough over the eastern North America.  Elsa

should move over southeastern New England and Atlantic Canada within

the next 12-36 hours.  The model guidance remains tightly packed on

that solution, and the new official track forecast remains close to

the previous one.

Key Messages:

1. As Elsa moves across the eastern mid-Atlantic overnight, heavy

rainfall may result in limited flash and urban flooding. Heavy

rainfall across New England through Friday could lead to

considerable flash and urban flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions should continue along portions of the

mid-Atlantic coast overnight.  Tropical storm conditions are

expected in portions of the southern New England states and New

York by Friday.  Gusty winds are expected over portions of Atlantic

Canada Friday night and Saturday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0300Z 37.6N  76.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND

 12H  09/1200Z 40.5N  72.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER

 24H  10/0000Z 44.6N  66.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 36H  10/1200Z 49.4N  59.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 48H  11/0000Z 54.5N  48.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 60H  11/1200Z 58.5N  40.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 72H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster Blake

10:12 PM ADT Thursday 08 July 2021

Rainfall warning in effect for:

Prince County P.E.I.

Rain, at times heavy, is expected.

Significant rain is expected.

Total rainfall: 20 to 50 mm.

locations: Prince County.

Time span: early Friday morning though to early Saturday morning.

Remarks: Showers will develop overnight tonight and persist through the day Friday as a frontal trough of low pressure moves through the region. Tropical storm Elsa, which will become post-tropical Friday, will enhance the precipitation Friday night as it tracks west of the Island early Saturday morning. Total rainfall amounts of up to 50 mm are forecast, mainly in the western part of the county.

Localized flooding in low-lying areas is possible.

Rainfall warnings are issued when significant rainfall is expected.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to PEstorm@canada.ca or tweet reports using #PEStorm.

10:11 PM ADT Thursday 08 July 2021

Rainfall warning in effect for:

Fredericton and Southern York County

Rain, at times heavy, is expected.

Significant rain is expected.

Total rainfall: 50 to 80 mm except 100 locally.

locations: New Brunswick.

Time span: early Friday morning though to early Saturday morning.

Remarks: Periods of rain and isolated thundershowers are developing tonight and will persist through the day Friday as a frontal trough of low pressure moves through the region. Tropical storm Elsa, which will become post-tropical Friday, will enhance the rain Friday night as it tracks across the southern portion of the province before entering into the Gulf of St. Lawrence Saturday morning. Total rainfall amounts of 50 to 80 mm are currently forecast, with some areas likely seeing 100 mm or more locally. Gusty winds to 50 km/h can also be expected near the Fundy Coast.

Localized flooding in low-lying areas is possible.

Rainfall warnings are issued when significant rainfall is expected.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@canada.ca or tweet reports using #NBStorm.

Flood Watch

National Weather Service Caribou ME

926 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021

MEZ006-011-015>017-029>032-091200-

/O.CON.KCAR.FF.A.0001.210709T1200Z-210710T1200Z/

/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

Southeast Aroostook-Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-

Interior Hancock-Central Washington-Coastal Hancock-

Coastal Washington-Southern Piscataquis-Northern Washington-

Including the cities of Houlton, Hodgdon, Sherman, Smyrna Mills,

Lincoln, Howland, Springfield, Bangor, Brewer, Orono, Old Town,

Amherst, Aurora, Dedham, Eastbrook, Great Pond, Calais,

Grand Lake Stream, Wesley, Princeton, Ellsworth, Bar Harbor,

Bucksport, Orland, Castine, Eastport, Perry, Machias,

Cherryfield, Dover-Foxcroft, Milo, Guilford, Danforth, Vanceboro,

and Topsfield

926 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT FRIDAY

THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of Central Highlands Maine, Coastal DownEast Maine,

  Far Eastern Maine, Interior DownEast Maine, and Penobscot

  Valley Maine, including the following areas, in Central

  Highlands Maine, Southern Piscataquis. In Coastal DownEast

  Maine, Coastal Hancock and Coastal Washington. In Far Eastern

  Maine, Northern Washington and Southeast Aroostook. In

  Interior DownEast Maine, Central Washington and Interior

  Hancock. In Penobscot Valley Maine, Central Penobscot and

  Southern Penobscot.

* From 8 AM EDT Friday through Saturday morning

* Tropical moisture will bring very heavy rainfall to the

  region.

* Rainfall rates will rapidly increase Friday afternoon with

  heavy rain then persisting Friday evening through the early

  morning hours of Saturday. Rainfall rates will likely exceed 1

  inch per hour at times Friday evening through early Saturday

  morning. Widespread rain totals of 2.00 to 3.50 inches are

  expected from Friday afternoon through early Saturday. Locally

  greater totals are also expected. These rainfall totals and

  rain rates could lead to flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead

to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action

should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

VJN

8:48 PM ADT Thursday 08 July 2021

Tropical cyclone information statement for:

New Brunswick

Nova Scotia

Prince Edward Island

For Tropical Storm Elsa.

The next information statement will be issued by 03:00 a.m. ADT.

Tropical Storm Elsa is currently moving into Virgina. Elsa is expected to track across the Maritimes as a Post-Tropical storm late Friday into Saturday bringing significant rain and some gusty winds to parts of the region.

1. Summary of basic information at 09:00 p.m. ADT.

Location: Near 36.8 North 77.4 West.

About 110 kilometres west of Norfolk, VA.

Maximum sustained winds: 85 kilometres per hour.

Present movement: Northeast at 33 kilometres per hour.

Minimum central pressure: 1004 millibars.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

Elsa is expected to maintain intensity with slight strengthening still possible as it moves along the mid-Altantic coast of the US and towards the Maritimes by Friday night. Significant rainfall is likely ahead of Elsa associated with a trough moving in from southern Quebec on Friday, along with additional rainfall Friday night into Saturday with the passage of Elsa.

a. Wind.

Widespread damaging winds from Elsa are not expected across the Maritimes at this time. However some gusty winds are possible south and east of its track through the region, potentially gusting to 60 or 70 km/h with brief gusts possible to 80 km/h over southwestern New Brunswick and western Nova Scotia Friday night.

b. Rainfall.

Rainfall warnings have been issued for all of New Brunswick and Prince County PEI. Areas along and north of Elsa's track through the region will pick up significant rainfall. Most model guidance is indicating potentially 50-100 mm of total rainfall over parts of New Brunswick from early Friday into Saturday morning.

c. Surge/Waves.

No significant coastal impacts from storm surge is currently expected from Elsa. Latest wave models suggest wave heights of 2 to 3 metres reaching the Atlantic Coast of Nova Scotia by late Friday or Saturday.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Gale warnings are now in effect for western marine areas. Strong to gale force winds are likely in some waters just south and east of Elsa's track Friday night into early Saturday morning. Offshore waves of near 4 metres are possible over the western Maritime marine district on Friday night.

Forecaster(s): McArthur / Roch / Borgel

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.