Tropical Storm Philippe Approaches

010 

WTNT32 KNHC 060231

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number  51

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172023

1100 PM AST Thu Oct 05 2023

...PHILIPPE TO BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ON BERMUDA BEGINNING 

EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...28.2N 66.0W

ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSW OF BERMUDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are 

expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the 

next 12-24 hours. 

Interests in eastern New England and Atlantic Canada should monitor

the progress of Philippe.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was

located near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 66.0 West. Philippe is

moving toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general

motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through

Saturday night.  A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast early

Sunday.  On the forecast track, the center of Philippe will pass

near or just west of Bermuda on Friday, and then reach the coast of

Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, or eastern Maine Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher 

gusts. Some strengthening is possible Friday night or Saturday, but

Philippe is expected to become post-tropical on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)

from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC

and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning

early Friday morning.

RAINFALL:  Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches expected across Bermuda

through Friday. This rainfall could result in flash flooding.

For portions of New York and New England, rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 

inches, with local amounts of 5 inches, are expected with Philippe 

as it moves through the region this weekend.  Isolated to scattered 

instances of urban and flash flooding are expected.

For portions of Southeast Canada, rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, 

with local amounts of 5 inches, are expected with Philippe as it 

moves through the region this weekend.  Isolated to scattered 

instances of urban and flash flooding are expected.

SURF:  Large swells are already affecting Bermuda from another 

weather system but will increase early Friday as Philippe approaches 

the island.  Swells are also reaching portions of the southeastern 

U.S. coast and will spread northward along the east coast to 

Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.  These conditions 

are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.  Please 

consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.

Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$

Forecaster Cangialosi

000

WTNT42 KNHC 060232

TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number  51

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172023

1100 PM AST Thu Oct 05 2023

Satellite imagery of Philippe shows little change in structure with 

the center still exposed to the west of a growing area of deep 

convection. Radar data from Bermuda indicate outer rain bands from 

the system are moving across Bermuda. However, the winds so far are 

below tropical storm force. The initial wind speed remains 45 kt, 

which is near the high end of the latest satellite intensity 

estimates. 

Philippe is moving northward at 14 kt. The storm is currently

moving between an upper-level cutoff low off the Florida coast, and

a ridge over the central Atlantic. This flow is expected to

accelerate Philippe further northward during the next few days. The

center of Philippe is expected to pass by Bermuda on Friday, and

reach the coast of Maine and Atlantic Canada Saturday night or

early Sunday. This forecast track has been shifted slightly to the

left of the previous advisory, closer to the HCCA and ECMWF models.

Philippe is behaving like a hybrid system. Even though the cyclone 

is facing strong wind shear and lower SSTs during the next couple 

of days, Philippe may pull most of its energy from an upper-level 

cutoff low just to its west. Due to these conditions, some 

intensification is predicted during the next day or so. Weakening 

is expected as Philippe moves inland over New England and Atlantic 

Canada this weekend. The official NHC intensity forecast is near 

the middle of the guidance envelope.

Based on the forecast for Philippe to become post-tropical by

Saturday, and after coordination with National Weather Service

offices in New England and the Canadian Hurricane Centre, the

current plan is for hazards in New England and Atlantic Canada to

be handled via local non-tropical statements and not issue tropical

watches or warnings.  We will continually assess this plan if the

forecast evolves and tropical watches or warnings become warranted.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning

early Friday morning, and a Tropical Storm Warning remains in

effect.  Heavy rainfall is expected to affect the island into

early Friday.  This could produce flash flooding.

2. Philippe is expected to move over portions of Atlantic Canada and 

New England as a post-tropical cyclone this weekend.  Regardless of 

Philippe's intensity or structure, interests in those areas should 

be prepared for the possibility of strong winds and heavy rainfall 

and monitor statements from their local weather office.  The 

rainfall could produce isolated to scattered instances of urban and 

flash flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 28.2N  66.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

 12H  06/1200Z 30.5N  65.8W   45 KT  50 MPH

 24H  07/0000Z 33.6N  65.9W   50 KT  60 MPH

 36H  07/1200Z 36.7N  66.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

 48H  08/0000Z 40.5N  66.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 60H  08/1200Z 45.7N  69.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

 72H  09/0000Z 49.5N  73.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

 96H  10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster Cangialosi

9:39 PM ADT Thursday 5 October 2023

Heavy rain and gusty winds are expected this weekend. 

Maximum wind gusts: 70 to 80 km/h over exposed areas. 

Total rainfall: 25 to 40 millimetres, but likely 50 or more in areas of heaviest rain.

Time span: Saturday evening through Sunday morning.

Remarks: a trough of low pressure is expected to interact with approaching Tropical Storm Philippe and will combine to give rain and strong winds. Detailed forecasts including timing and amounts will be issued on Friday.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #NBStorm.

9:36 PM ADT Thursday 5 October 2023

Wet and windy weekend expected. 

Maximum wind gusts: 70 to 80 km/h, potentially higher over exposed areas. 

Time span: Saturday night through Sunday morning.

Remarks: a trough of low pressure is expected to interact with approaching Tropical Storm Philippe and will combine to give strong winds and periods of rain this weekend.  Forecast details on timing and amounts will be issued on Friday.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to PEstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #PEStorm.

9:35 PM ADT Thursday 5 October 2023

Strong winds and rain are expected this weekend. 

Maximum wind gusts: 70 to 80 km/h, potentially higher over exposed areas. 

Total rainfall: 25 to 40 millimetres, but 50 or more possible in areas of heaviest rain.

Time span: beginning Saturday afternoon over western areas, later in the evening in the east. Conditions improving from west to east Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon. 

Remarks: a trough of low pressure is expected to interact with approaching Tropical Storm Philippe and will combine to give heavy rain and strong winds to the region this weekend. Forecast details on timing and amounts will be issued on Friday.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #NSStorm.

000

FXUS61 KCAR 052351

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

751 PM EDT Thu Oct 5 2023

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will remain centered east of the area through

Friday. A complex storm system approaches from the west Friday

night through Saturday night and crosses the area from Saturday

night into Sunday, then slowly tracks to the northwest through

Monday. An upper level disturbance will remain overhead into

midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

750 PM Update: Current Nighttime Microphysics RGB satellite

product shows a swath of low stratus and fog pushing inland from

the coast this evening, while high level clouds move into the

western portion of the forecast area from the west. With the

scattered nature on the leading edge of the cirrus, the extent

of the low cloud layer can clearly be seen just beginning to

push into southern Aroostook and northern Penobscot counties.

This fog bank will continue to slowly spread northwards through

the evening, likely hanging up on the higher terrain overnight

as was seen earlier this morning. Forecast was updated by

raising dew points slightly and adjusting the extent of areas of

fog to better line up with observations and trends.

Previous Discussion:

Surface high pressure centered east of the Maritimes will ridge

back westward across the forecast area tonight through Friday.

Aloft, upper ridging moves east across the Maritimes tonight

through Friday. The return flow around the exiting high will

bring increasing moisture across the region. Low clouds and fog

will expand northward across the forecast area again tonight,

banking against the higher terrain. A Dense Fog Advisory could

be required for portions of the forecast area later tonight into

Friday morning. Low clouds and fog will persist early Friday

with breaks again developing during the afternoon. However,

clouds will also be increasing from the west. Thus, generally

expect mostly cloudy skies across the forecast area Friday.

Isolated showers could also begin to approach southwest areas

late Friday. Low temperatures tonight will range from the lower

to mid 50s across the forecast area. High temperatures Friday

will generally range from around 70 to the lower 70s north, to

the mid to upper 60s Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

     Complex Setup to Bring Heavy Rain & Gusty Winds to Maine...

Fri night expect the surface 1027mb high to drift ESE of Nova

Scotia with a surface cold front slowly pushing east into

Eastern New York State. At the same time Tropical Storm Philippe

is expected to be NW of Bermuda increasing forward poleward

motion. At the same time 500mb trof (the main player) will be

digging into the Ohio River Valley with a potent shortwave

rounding the base.

This will keep intially the moisture out of Maine with generally

increasing SE winds due to the tightening pressure gradient. As

the boundary layer moistens cannot rule out isolated to

scattered showers to develop in response to increasing surface

lift from the front over western zones. Expect temperatures

under the cloudy skies and breezy SE winds to remain in the mid

to upper 50s. PWATs will be climbing to around 1-1.25" by Sat AM

and continue to increase into Saturday. Model guidance continues

to come into better agreement on the axis in which the 500mb

trof tilts negatively and "captures" Philippe which will be

transitioning into a post-tropical system as depicted in the

latest NHC track. This means Philippe will begin to interact

with the frontal system and upper level low near Philippe

becomes vertically stacked. At the same time a strong upper

level jet will dive around Philippe and help strengthen the

surface low pressure with upper level divergence.

Saturday afternoon expecting rain to become likely across much

of the southern 1/2 of the CWA with a chance of showers across

the north. The complete storm "capture" will take place later

in the day and expecting the center of Philippe to track

northwestward into the Gulf of Maine. There will be some

subsidence in between the front and the low which will track

into likely portions of GYX CWA and much of the surge of

1.5-1.75" PWATs work into our CWA. There remains still some

uncertainty on the exact track which will determine rain and

wind impacts. Based on the 12z suite of operational runs today

there is increasing confidence in widespread 1-2 inches of rain

with isolated higher amounts up to 4 inches possible especially

along and south of the Longfellow Mtns. Given this have opted to

add "heavy rain" wording to the grids for Sat night into Sun AM

for much of the CWA. Winds will shift E on Saturday and

gradually increase with gusts up 30-40mph especially at the

coast first. The powerful low-level jet will wrap around

Philippe and work across Nova Scotia into eastern Maine by the

late evening but the exact placement is uncertain as it might be

in New Brunswick or into Maine. This will be the side that has

the better chance of mixing down stronger gusts potentially to

wind advisory criteria.

Sat night into Sunday expect that moderate to heavy rain and

gusty winds east with breezy winds west in the CWA with the

heaviest rain falling during this timeframe. As it pertains to

flood threats see the Hydrology Section below. Rain will slowly

taper across Downeast zones by daybreak Sunday AM and by noon

across the north. Slight chance to chance of showers across the

area in the afternoon. In the wake of the low and after FROPA

on Sunday we will see the winds shift S-SW and remain gusty in

the 25-35mph range as skies clear S to N by afternoon.

Temperatures will top out in the upper 50s in the North Woods

and low 60s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Next week looks to remain unsettled and much cooler as the upper

level trof remains overhead with the 500mb low to our NW. This

will mean we have to watch for areas of shortwave energy riding

through the trof to produce mainly diurnally driven isolated to

scattered showers. High temperatures generally in the 50s to

near 60F north and low 60s across southern zones. Low

temperatures generally upper 30s to low 40s north and mid 40s

south. Higher elevations like Katahdin could potentially see

snowflakes at night especially Mon night with any shower

activity.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR Downeast early tonight. Otherwise, VFR/MVFR

early tonight. All areas then lower to IFR/LIFR, occasional

VLIFR, overnight through early Friday with low clouds and fog.

IFR/LIFR, occasional VLIFR, early Friday. Still some question as

to how far CAR/PQI fall as guidance keeps visibility high for

these terminals, but persistence would lead to some fog moving

into at least one of these terminals. VFR/MVFR, occasional IFR,

Friday afternoon. South winds 5 to 10 knots tonight, increasing

to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots Friday.

SHORT TERM: Sat...Becoming MVFR/IFR South, VFR/MVFR North. Rain

likely by PM south with chance of showers north. E-SE winds

5-15kt with gusts to 25kt by late day. LLWS possible.

Sat Night...IFR/LIFR. Heavy Rain. E Winds 10-20kt with gusts up

to 40kt possible at Aroostook Terms. Winds shifting S-SE by 12z

Sun. LLWS possible.

Sun...IFR/LIFR early becoming MVFR/VFR by afternoon. S-SW winds

10-20kt with gusts up to 30kt possible. LLWS possible.

Mon...VFR/MVFR. Chance of showers. S winds 10-15kt with gusts up

to 20kt.

Tue...VFR/MVFR. Chance of showers. S winds 5-15kt.

&&

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory

levels tonight through Friday. Visibilities reduced in areas of

fog tonight through Friday.

SHORT TERM: National Hurricane Center has Tropical Storm

Philippe becoming post tropical then tracking into the Gulf of

Maine late Saturday and north of the waters by early Sun AM.

Expect E-NE winds to increase to SCA levels Sat with Gales

possible by Sat Eve into Sun AM especially over the eastern

waters. Winds will shift SW early Sun AM behind the low tracking

into Maine or New Brunswick. High end SCA or low end SW Gales

are possible Sun before winds weaken below SCA by Sun night.

Winds will remain below SCA into mid next week. In terms of

waves, expect long period (11-12sec) SE swells to develop Sat

and peak in the 10-15ft range Sat night with potentially 6-10ft

waves making it to the shore. We are at the last quarter moon so

high tides are much lower and not expecting much impacts other

than gusty winds and large waves. Long period swells remain

9-11ft for much of Sun before subsiding to 4-6ft by Mon. Lastly,

rain heavy at times will likely reduce vsby Sat into Sun AM

with potentially a few thunderstorms embedded Sat eve.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Despite the recent dry spell the root zone soil moisture remains

in the 95-98th percentile which is "much above normal" for what

is typically a dryer soil period in the calendar. The soil

cannot take too much rainfall in a short period of time which

will result in more runoff vs. absorption. 6 hour flash flood

guidance given the drier recent days is in the 2-3" range from

north to south across the CWA. The potential for heavy rain due

to the interaction of a post-tropical system (Philippe) and

approaching front adds concern for possible flash flooding.

PWATs will increase 1.3-1.6" across the area which is 0.5-0.75"

above climatological normals. Given the tight gradient of lift,

upper level divergence and low of Philippe there is a concern

for heavy rainfall across the area especially along and south of

the Longfellow Mtns. Widespread 1-2" of rain with isolated

areas up to 4" possible. Much of this rain will fall in a

12-18hr period Sat PM into Sun AM. WPC has placed all of Maine

in a "Slight Risk" of flash flooding which means scattered flash

flooding is possible. It will remain mainly localized impacting

small streams, creeks and urban poor drainage areas.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ME...None.

MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...AStrauser/Norcross

Short Term...Sinko

Long Term...Sinko

Aviation...AStrauser/Norcross/Sinko

Marine...AStrauser/Norcross/Sinko

Hydrology...Sinko

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Caribou ME

350 PM EDT Thu Oct 5 2023

MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-062000-

Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-

Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-

Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-

Interior Hancock-Central Washington-Coastal Hancock-

Coastal Washington-Southern Piscataquis-Northern Washington-

350 PM EDT Thu Oct 5 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Highlands Maine,

Coastal DownEast Maine, Far Eastern Maine, Far Northern Maine,

Interior DownEast Maine, North Woods Maine and Penobscot Valley

Maine.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Heavy rain is likely Saturday evening through Sunday morning that may

pose a risk of isolated flash flooding. In addition to the heavy

rain, a gusty east wind is expected across the region. Please

continue to monitor the latest forecasts from the National Weather

Service as we get closer in time for more specific rain and wind

details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather

conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

$$

12:10 PM ADT Thursday 5 October 2023

Tropical Cyclone Information Statement (Philippe) in effect for:

Land Zone

Nova Scotia

Annapolis County

Digby County

Halifax Metro and Halifax County West

Hants County

Kings County

Lunenburg County

Queens County

Shelburne County

Yarmouth County

Marine Zone

Maritime Waters

Browns Bank

Fundy

Georges Bank

Grand Manan

LaHave Bank

Lurcher

Southwestern Shore

West Scotian Slope

The next information statement will be issued at 3:00 a.m. ADT Friday.

Tropical Storm Philippe is expected to track northward toward Bermuda then toward the Gulf of Maine Saturday night as a post-tropical storm.  The windy side of the storm is expected to spread over Nova Scotia with the higher winds expected over the western part of the province.  Elevated water levels and rough surf can be expected along parts of the Atlantic Coast of Nova Scotia coast impacted by Hurricane Lee but impacts from Philippe are looking like they will be much less.  

Philippe is currently only a weak tropical storm but is expected to intensify as it moves northward.  Some computer models indicated that there is a possibility (10% chance) it could strengthen to hurricane status so the CHC will monitor that aspect and provide updates.

It is too early to know if the winds will be impactful (e.g. warning criteria is for gusts of 90 km/h or more).  Most of the heavy rainfall from the storm will fall over Maine.  The impacts from Philippe are expected to occur Saturday night.

Philippe will also be merging with a broad area of low pressure so inclement weather is expected over a much larger area than western Nova Scotia, therefore separate weather statements are or soon will be in effect for many areas including Quebec.

Forecaster: Fogarty

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.