736
WTNT35 KNHC 231435
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Advisory Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020
...TEDDY MAKES LANDFALL NEAR ECUM SECUM NOVA SCOTIA...
...STILL FORECAST TO PRODUCE DESTRUCTIVE WAVES, STRONG WINDS, AND
HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...46.0N 61.3W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM NE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF PORT AUX BASQUES NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Canadian Hurricane Centre has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning from Digby to Ecum Secum Nova Scotia.
The Canadian Hurricane Centre has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Watch from Fort Lawrence to Digby Nova Scotia, and from west of
Brule to Tidnish.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Nova Scotia from Ecum Secum to Meat Cove
* Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Meat Cove to Brule Nova Scotia
* Magdalen Islands Quebec
* Prince Edward Island
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress
of Teddy.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
Teddy made landfall near Ecum Secum, Nova Scotia, near 800 AM AST
(1200 UTC), with maximum sustained winds near 65 mph (100 km/h),
and a minimum central pressure of 964 mb (28.47 inches).
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy
was located near latitude 46.0 North, longitude 61.3 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 26
mph (43 km/h), and this motion with an increase in forward speed is
expected for the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center
will move over the Gulf of St. Lawrence this afternoon, be near
Newfoundland early tonight, and be east of Labrador on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Teddy should slowly weaken today before dissipating on Thursday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center. A sustained wind of 52 mph (83 km/h) and a gust to
67 mph (107 km/h) were recently reported at Hart Island along the
eastern coast of Nova Scotia.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is still possible over portions of
eastern Nova Scotia east of Ecum Secum. Near the coast, large and
destructive waves are likely.
SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Nova Scotia
warning area and are expected to begin in the Newfoundland warning
area this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
watch areas today.
RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals
of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Blake
737
WTNT45 KNHC 231436
TCDAT5
Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Discussion Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020
Surface observations indicate that Teddy made landfall this morning
near Ecum Secum, Nova Scotia, near 1200 UTC with estimated maximum
sustained winds of 65 mph and a minimum pressure of 964 mb. Since
then, the storm has continued to race across Nova Scotia and is
slowly weakening. The initial wind speed is set to 50 kt. Teddy
should move north-northeastward across the Gulf of St. Lawrence this
afternoon then move near Newfoundland by tonight. After passing
east of Labrador on Thursday, the global models show Teddy merging
with another large extratropical low over the north Atlantic. No
significant changes were made to the previous track or intensity
forecasts, which are similar to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models.
Even after Teddy passes Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, large swells
creating dangerous rip currents will linger over much of the
southwestern Atlantic basin for the next few days.
Key Messages:
1. The most significant hazard expected from Teddy today is large
destructive waves along the southeastern coast of Nova Scotia.
Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect for portions of
Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island and the Magdalen
Islands, and heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected
through Thursday.
2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect
portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the
Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada
during the next few days. These swells are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/1500Z 46.0N 61.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 24/0000Z 49.5N 58.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 24/1200Z 54.5N 54.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake
