Potential Tropical Cyclone Fay

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure located inland along the Georgia-South
Carolina border southeast of Augusta, Georgia, continues to produce
a large area of showers and heavy rain over portions of the
southeastern United States. The low is expected to move slowly
eastward overnight before turning east-northeastward on Wednesday.
By Wednesday night and Thursday, the system is forecast to move
generally northeastward near or just offshore the coast of the
Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic states, and a tropical or
subtropical cyclone could form later this week if the low moves
over the warm waters of the western Atlantic. Regardless of
development, the low is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall
that could cause flash flooding across portions of the southeastern
U.S. during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

000
FXUS61 KCAR 072239
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
639 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will approach from the west late tonight and cross the
region Wednesday. High pressure will return for Thursday and Friday.
Low pressure will approach from the south Friday night and track
toward the area Saturday. A cold front will approach from the west
on Sunday.......

&&

.....SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The front will slide east of the area Wednesday evening. High
pressure will then build over the region Wednesday night. Calm air
and clearing skies over moistened ground will likely allow for some
patchy fog to form late at night. Any fog should dissipate Thursday
morning allowing for a partly to mostly sunny and very warm day on
Thursday followed by a mostly clear night Thursday night. High
pressure will slowly slide to the east on Friday allowing for
another partly to mostly sunny, warm and humid day on Friday. Some
isolated thundershowers are possible across the area, mostly north
and west, both Thursday and Friday afternoons. Clouds may begin to
increase from the south late Friday ahead of a subtropical low
lifting north from the Mid-Atlantic region.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Our focus Friday night into Saturday will be on a small but moist
subtropical low approaching from the Mid-Atlantic region as a cold
front nears from the Midwest. Clouds will increase from south to
north ahead of this system Friday night and rain will spread into
the area from the south after midnight. It remains a bit uncertain
how much of the heaviest rain from this system will lift north. The
greatest chance for some heavy rain will be across eastern Downeast
areas early Saturday morning as the low tracks into the Gulf of
Maine. Lighter rain is likely north and west of the low as the low
center tracks toward eastern Downeast areas on Saturday. The
northern reach of the heavier rain will ultimately depend on the
nature of the approaching front from the west which, if slower and
more negatively tilted, would allow more subtropical moisture and
therefore heavier rainfall to lift north. The subtropical low will
continue northeast across New Brunswick Saturday night as the front
from the west crosses our area. This front may produce additional
showers Saturday night with the best chance for showers in western
areas. The front will slide east on Sunday as a trailing supporting
shortwave brings lingering cloudiness and some isolated showers on
Sunday. High pressure will build over the area Monday as a weak
surface trough remains over the area. Some spotty showers may still
be around on Monday as the upper trough moves over.

&&