After Ravaging The Louisiana Coast As A Monstrous Cat 4 Hurricane Ida Now A Cat 2 Slowly Moves North, May Impact Our Weather

000

WTNT34 KNHC 300244

TCPAT4

BULLETIN

Hurricane Ida Advisory Number  16

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092021

1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...IDA TURNING NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...

...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING

CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...30.3N 90.7W

ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ESE OF BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA

ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WNW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border

* Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River

* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City Louisiana

* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in

the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please

see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,

available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.

Persons located within these areas should take all necessary

actions to protect life and property from rising water and the

potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow

evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ida was located 

near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 90.7 West. Ida is moving toward 

the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h).  A turn toward the north 

is expected overnight, followed by a slightly faster northeastward 

motion by Monday night and Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the 

center of Ida will move farther inland over southeastern Louisiana 

tonight.  Ida is then forecast to move well inland over portions of 

western Mississippi Monday and Monday night, and move across the 

Tennessee Valley on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Rapid weakening is expected during the next day or so,

however, Ida is expected to remain a hurricane for several more 

hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles

(220 km).  A sustained wind of 64 mph ( 104 km/h) and a wind gust 

of 90 mph (145 km/h) were reported recently reported at the New 

Orleans International Airport.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,

and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could

reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated

areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, LA to Bay St. Louis, MS including Lake

Borgne...7-11 ft

Lake Pontchartrain...5-8 ft

Bay St. Louis, MS to Ocean Springs, MS...4-7 ft

Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft

Ocean Springs to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft

Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion

Bay...1-3 ft

AL/FL border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line including Pensacola

Bay...1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm

Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation

values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to

the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be

accompanied by large and dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding

depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and

can vary greatly over short distances.  For information specific to

your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather

Service forecast office.

WIND:  Wind damage is likely near the core of Ida as it moves 

farther inland over southeastern Louisiana during the next few 

hours.

Hurricane conditions will spread farther inland within the Hurricane

Warning area over southeastern Louisiana for the next few hours. 

Tropical storm conditions will also spread inland over portions of 

Louisiana and Mississippi through Monday.

RAINFALL:  Heavy rainfall from Ida will continue to impact the

southeast Louisiana coast, spreading northeast into the Lower

Mississippi Valley this evening into Monday.  Total rainfall

accumulations of 10 to 18 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 

24 inches are possible across southeast Louisiana into far southern

Mississippi through Monday. This is likely to result in life-

threatening flash and urban flooding and significant river

flooding impacts.

Ida is forecast to turn to the northeast on Monday and track across

the Middle Tennessee Valley and Upper Ohio Valley through Wednesday,

producing the following rainfall totals:

Coastal Alabama to the far western Florida panhandle: 5 to 10 inches

with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, today through Tuesday

morning.

Central Mississippi: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of

12 inches, tonight through Monday night.

Middle Tennessee Valley, Upper Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians

into the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts,

Tuesday into Wednesday.

These rainfall totals will result in considerable flash flooding

along with widespread minor to isolated major riverine flooding from

the Lower Mississippi Valley into far western Alabama.

TORNADOES:  Tornadoes will be most likely through Monday over

southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwest Alabama, and

the western Florida Panhandle.  A few tornadoes are also possible

farther north across much of Mississippi and Alabama on Monday.

SURF:  Swells will continue to affect the northern Gulf coast

through Monday.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening 

surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your 

local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.

Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$

Forecaster Cangialosi

000

WTNT44 KNHC 300244

TCDAT4

Hurricane Ida Discussion Number  16

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092021

1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

Although Ida has been inland over southeastern Louisiana for several 

hours, it is still a very well organized hurricane. Doppler radar 

images indicate that the hurricane continues to have a well-defined 

eye, though the eyewall has become a bit ragged on the southwest 

side.  Beyond the inner core, rain bands remain well established, 

especially on the system's east side.  Earlier this evening, there 

were reports of extreme wind gusts over 120 kt along the coast of 

southeastern Louisiana.  Based on Doppler radar velocity data over 

the past hour or two, the initial intensity is estimated to be 90 

kt.

As Ida continues inland, rapid weakening is expected due to a 

combination of land interaction and an increase in wind shear. 

However, damaging winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread 

further inland over southeastern Louisiana and southwestern 

Mississippi through Monday morning.  To account for this, the gust 

factor in the Forecast/Advisory has been adjusted accordingly.  Ida 

is likely to weaken to a tropical storm by Monday morning and a 

tropical depression by Monday night.  Some slight restrengthening as 

an extratropical storm is possible when Ida moves over the western 

Atlantic in 4 days or so.  In addition, heavy rains will spread 

northward and then northeastward along the forecast track.

Ida is expected to turn northward by early Monday as it moves in the 

flow on the western side of a subtropical ridge.  A faster motion to 

the northeast is expected by Tuesday as a mid- to upper-level trough 

approaches the system, with that motion continuing through much of 

the remainder of the week.  The NHC track forecast is a little to 

the south or right of the previous one to come into better agreement 

with the latest models.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge inundation will continue through 

tonight along portions of the coast between Burns Point, Louisiana,

to Ocean Springs, Mississippi. Overtopping of local levees outside

of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible

where local inundation values may be higher.

2. Wind damage will occur near the core of Ida as it continues  

inland over southeastern Louisiana during the next few hours. 

Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread inland near the 

track of Ida's center into southwestern Mississippi through early 

Monday. These winds will likely lead to widespread tree damage and 

power outages.

3. Ida will continue to produce heavy rainfall tonight through 

Monday across southeast Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, and 

southwestern Alabama, resulting in considerable to life-threatening 

flash and urban flooding and significant riverine flooding impacts. 

As Ida moves farther inland, considerable flooding impacts are 

possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee 

Valley, Upper Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic 

through Wednesday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0300Z 30.3N  90.7W   90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND

 12H  30/1200Z 31.5N  90.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND

 24H  31/0000Z 33.0N  90.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND

 36H  31/1200Z 34.6N  88.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND

 48H  01/0000Z 36.1N  85.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

 60H  01/1200Z 37.5N  82.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

 72H  02/0000Z 38.9N  78.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 96H  03/0000Z 40.0N  72.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  04/0000Z 40.7N  67.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$

Forecaster Cangialosi

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FXUS61 KCAR 300214

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

1014 PM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

.SYNOPSIS...

A warm front will begin to lift across the region tonight and

will lift north of the area Monday morning. A cold front will

cross the area Monday afternoon and evening. High pressure will

build toward the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Low pressure

will move south of the region Thursday.....

.....LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

The remnants of Hurricane Ida is expected to approach the Gulf

of Maine late Wednesday night into Thursday. Unfortunately,

there is quite a bit of inconsistency between models as of this

update. The GFS model has Ida moving NE with the center passing

along coastal Downeast, bring high amounts of QPF and winds

across the south before moving off to the Maritimes by

nightfall. The Canadian model has Ida moving further south

across the Gulf of Maine, keeping high QPFs over the waters. As

Ida moves NE through the night, Canadian models have high QPF

across the eastern parts of the state with high winds. The Euro

is much slower with the approach of Ida as it has the center

coming near the coast Thursday night. Nevertheless, Hurricane

Ida is expected to affect the region during this time.

By Friday, Ida should move off to the NE, keeping rain showers

across the north with slight chance to the south. High pressure

should build back in until Sunday when the next round of rain is

expected from an approaching front. Confidence in the models is

lost at this time with the placement and timing of the front,

thus chance rain showers was included in the forecast....

ZCZC MIATCUAT4 ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

 

Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092021

200 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

 

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IDA MAKES SECOND 

LANDFALL SOUTHWEST OF GALLIANO LOUISIANA...

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHEAST 

LOUISIANA...

NOAA Doppler radar imagery indicates that the eye of Ida made a 

second landfall along the southeastern coast of Louisiana just 

southwest of Galliano around 200 PM CDT (1900 UTC). Maximum 

sustained winds are estimated to be 145 mph (235 km/h). The 

estimated central pressure is 934 mb (27.58 in).

Within the past hour, a research wind gauge near Golden Meadow, 

Louisiana, reported sustained winds of 70 mph (113 km/h) and a gust 

to 107 mph (172 km/h) and a Weatherflow site in Dulac reported 

sustained winds of 76 mph (122 km/h) and a gust to 104 mph 

(167 km/h).

The New Orleans Lakefront airport reported a peak wind gust of 

76 mph (122 km/h) within the last hour.

A NOAA National Ocean Service tide gauge in Shell Beach, Louisiana, 

recently reported a water level of 6.8 feet above mean higher high 

water, which is an approximation of inundation in that area. 

A NOAA National Ocean Service tide gauge at Bay Waveland Yacht Club, 

Mississippi, recently reported a water level of 5.6 feet above mean 

higher high water, which is an approximation of inundation in that 

area. 

SUMMARY OF 200 PM CDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...29.3N 90.4W

ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM WNW OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA

ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...235 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES

$$

Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Brown

 

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ZCZC MIATCUAT4 ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

 

Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092021

1155 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

 

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IDA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR 

PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA...

NOAA Doppler radar imagery indicates that the eye of Ida made 

landfall along the southeastern coast of Louisiana near Port 

Fourchon around 1155 AM CDT (1655 UTC).  Data from an Air Force 

Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and Doppler radar data indicate that 

Ida's maximum sustained winds at landfall were estimated to be 150 

mph (240 km/h).  The latest minimum central pressure estimated from 

reconnaissance aircraft data is 930 mb (27.46 in).

Within the past hour, sustained winds of 43 mph (69 km/h) and a 

gust to 67 mph (107 km/h) were reported at Lakefront Airport in New 

Orleans. 

A NOAA National Ocean Service tide gauge in Shell Beach, Louisiana, 

recently reported a water level of 6.4 feet above mean higher high 

water, which is an approximation of inundation in that area. 

A NOAA National Ocean Service tide gauge at Bay Waveland Yacht Club, 

Mississippi, recently reported a water level of 5.5 feet above mean 

higher high water, which is an approximation of inundation in that 

area. 

SUMMARY OF 1155 AM CDT...1655 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...29.1N 90.2W

ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SW OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA

ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.46 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Brown/Brennan

 

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