Saturday, August 01, 2020

July 2020 Climate Summary for Northern and Eastern Maine

...JULY MONTHLY CLIMATE NARRATIVE FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE...

SIMILAR TO JUNE, JULY WAS ANOTHER MONTH WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE. TEMPERATURES
AVERAGED FROM 2 TO 4.5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. IN CARIBOU, IT WAS
THE 2ND WARMEST JULY ON RECORD BEHIND ONLY 2018. IT ALSO RANKED AS
THE 2ND ALL-TIME WARMEST MONTH IN CARIBOU SINCE WEATHER RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1939. IN HOULTON, IT WAS THE 11TH WARMEST JULY ON RECORD,
IN MILLINOCKET THE 15TH WARMEST, AND IN BANGOR IT WAS THE 12TH
WARMEST ON RECORD.

THERE WERE A TOTAL OF 20 DAYS WITH A HIGH OF 80 DEGREES OR WARMER IN
CARIBOU, WHICH IS THE 2ND MOST ON RECORD BEHIND ONLY 2018 WHEN THERE
WERE 21 DAYS ABOVE 80F. MILLINOCKET ALSO HAD 20 DAYS WITH A HIGH OF
80 DEGREES OR WARMER, WHICH WAS THE 9TH MOST ON RECORD.  BANGOR AND
HOULTON DID NOT RANK IN THE TOP 10 FOR THE NUMBER OF 80 DEGREE DAYS.

FOR THE COMBINED 2-MONTHS OF JUNE AND JULY 2020 IT WAS THE ALL-
TIME WARMEST ON RECORD IN CARIBOU BY A FULL DEGREE WITH AN
AVERAGE 2 MONTH TEMPERATURE OF 67.2 DEGREES, WHICH BROKE THE
RECORD OF 66.2 DEGREES IN 2006. IN HOULTON, IT RANKED AS THE 9TH
WARMEST 2 MONTH PERIOD, IN MILLINOCKET IT RANKED AS THE 7TH
WARMEST, AND IN BANGOR IT WAS THE 11TH WARMEST.

MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN
AND EASTERN MAINE IN JULY WITH A MUCH SMALLER AREA OF SEVERE
DROUGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. NEAR RECORD LOW
STREAM FLOWS WERE REPORTED ACROSS AROOSTOOK COUNTY, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE MONTH. SHORT TO VERY SHORT TOPSOIL
MOISTURE WAS REPORTED IN MANY AREAS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE.
THE DRY CONDITIONS IMPACTED AGRICULTURAL INTEREST WITH REDUCED
HAY AND GRAIN CROPS AND LED TO AN INCREASED NEED TO IRRIGATE
CROPS.

THE MONTH BEGAN VERY DRY, BUT RAINFALL DID BECOME MORE FREQUENT
FROM THE 2ND WEEK OF THE MONTH THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH. IN
CARIBOU, A TOTAL OF 3.04 INCHES OF RAIN WAS OBSERVED, WHICH WAS
ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL. IN HOULTON, 3.13 INCHES OF RAIN FEEL,
WHICH WAS JUST 53 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH BELOW NORMAL. IN
MILLINOCKET, 4.02 INCHES OF RAIN FELL, WHICH WAS 17 HUNDRETHS OF
AN INCH ABOVE AVERAGE. IN BANGOR, 4.21 INCHES OF RAIN WAS
OBSERVED, WHICH WAS THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ABOVE AVERAGE. THE
RAINFALL WAS A COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
AND MANY AREAS IN WASHINGTON COUNTY AND NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY
HAD WELL BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL THAT RANGED FROM AS LITTLE AS 25
PERCENT OF NORMAL IN PARTS OF THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY TO 5O TO 70
PERCENT OF NORMAL IN WASHINGTON COUNTY.

FOR THE 2-MONTH PERIOD OF JUNE AND JULY IT WAS THE 3RD DRIEST ON
RECORD IN CARIBOU WITH ONLY 3.92 INCHES OF RAIN.  HOULTON HAD THE
5TH DRIEST JUNE AND JULY COMBINED WITH 4.31 INCHES. MILLINOCKET AND
BANGOR DID NOT RANK IN THE TOP 20 FOR THE DRIEST COMBINED JUNE AND
JULY ON RECORD.

THE OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST IS CALLING FOR CONTINUED
GREATER PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THERE IS AN
INCREASED PROBABILITY OF ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST REGION AND NO STRONG CLIMATE SIGNALS THAT WOULD POINT
TOWARD ABOVE OR BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE REGION. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO SLOWLY FALL,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE 2ND HALF OF THE MONTH. IN CARIBOU, THE
AVERAGE HIGH ON THE 1ST IS 76 DEGREES AND IT FALLS TO 71 BY THE
END OF THE MONTH. THE AVERAGE LOW DROPS FROM 55 ON THE 1ST TO 49
BY THE END OF THE MONTH. ON AVERAGE, THERE IS 3.76 INCHES OF RAIN.
IN BANGOR, THE AVERAGE HIGH FALLS FROM 80 DEGREES ON THE FIRST TO
76 BY THE END OF THE MONTH. THE AVERAGE LOW FALLS FROM 58 TO 53
DEGREES. NEARLY AN HOUR AND A HALF OF DAYLIGHT IS LOST DURING THE
MONTH OF AUGUST.

Isaias Downgraded To A Tropical Storm
































00
FXUS61 KCAR 020429
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1229 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will crest over the area late tonight and move
southeast Sunday. Low pressure will lift west of the area Sunday
night and track to our north Monday. A cold front will cross
the area Monday night. Isaias, or its remnants, will track
across the region Wednesday. High pressure will build late week.....

.........SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure lifting well west of the region will bring a breezy and
increasingly humid night Sunday night as a southerly breeze pulls
moist air north. Some spotty light showers and drizzle are possible.
Otherwise, the night will be mostly cloudy. Low pressure will lift
north of the area Monday pulling a weak cold front in. Moisture and
a significant mechanisms for lift are weak so only spotty showers or
an isolated thunderstorms will be possible Monday with the front,
mainly across the north. The front will dissipate over the region
Monday night bringing a tranquil night. Moisture will begin sliding
north well ahead of tropical system Isaias with some light rain or
drizzle possibly reaching Downeast areas by early Tuesday morning.
Moisture will deepen Tuesday ahead of the approaching system
increasing the chances for rain over the area. Rain will become
likely in western parts of the region by late Tuesday with a chance
of rain or drizzle elsewhere. Some of the rain will be supported by
upper level difluence between the subtropical high to our southeast
and a trough of low pressure centered just north of the Great
Lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Isaias should approach Tuesday night, cross the region Wednesday,
then exit across the Maritimes Wednesday night. However, the exact
timing of the storm is still uncertain. Uncertainty also exists
regarding the storms eventual track and intensity. Isaias is
currently forecast to be a tropical storm while impacting the
forecast area. Winds, along with rainfall, will be dependent on both
the eventual track and intensity of the storm. The strength and
organization will be largely dependent on the amount of time the
storm tracks over land or water during the approach to the forecast
area. A more inland approach would tend to support a weaker storm,
while a more over water approach would tend to support a stronger
system. An upper trof approaching from the west could act to enhance
rainfall with the system. Expect rain, along with a chance of
thunderstorms, to expand across the region Tuesday night then
persist with the system Wednesday. Rainfall will then diminish later
Wednesday into Wednesday night in the wake of the storm. The upper
trof will cross the region Thursday, which could support a slight
chance of showers across mostly the north and mountains. Otherwise,
partly cloudy skies are expected Thursday. High pressure is expected
early Friday, with an upper level/surface trof approaching late.
Generally expect partly cloudy/mostly clear skies across the region
Friday, though could again have the slight chance of a diurnal
shower across mostly the north and mountains. The upper
level/surface trof will support a chance of diurnal showers across
mostly the north and mountains Saturday. Otherwise, expect generally
partly cloudy skies Saturday. Near normal, to slightly above
normal, level temperatures are expected Wednesday through
Saturday........

954 
WTNT44 KNHC 020256
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092020
1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020

Deep convection has increased this evening in a cluster to the east
and northeast of the aircraft-observed center position.  Radar data
suggests a mid-level center or vorticity maximum in that area,
which is between Grand Bahama and Andros Island.  Observations from
the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that Isaias has not
restrengthened thus far, but there is still a small window of
opportunity for it to regain hurricane intensity Sunday while
passing over the Gulf Stream waters.  Synoptic surveillance data
from the NOAA Gulfstream-IV aircraft indicate that the upper-level
west-southwesterly flow over Isais will begin to increase by late
Sunday.  The resulting increase in shear and interaction with land
should cause weakening beyond 24 hours, and the official intensity
forecast is near or above the intensity model consensus.

Assuming that the aforementioned mid-level feature is not the 
dominant center of circulation, the aircraft fixes give a motion 
estimate of about 310/8 kt.  Isais has been moving northwestward 
along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high pressure area. 
An approaching trough near the Ohio Valley is expected to cause the 
tropical cyclone to turn northward within 48 hours.  After that, 
Isaias should accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward ahead 
of the trough, and move near or over the east coast of the United 
States. The official track forecast remains close to both the 
simple and corrected dynamic model consensus tracks, TVCN and HCCA 
respectively.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge will continue in
portions of the northwest Bahamas through Sunday morning.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the Florida
east coast on Sunday with tropical storm conditions expected to
begin late tonight.  Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

3. Dangerous storm surge is possible along the Florida east coast
from Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach where water rises of 2 to 4
feet above ground level are possible along the immediate coastline
and adjacent waterways. Residents there should follow advice given
by local emergency officials.

4. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening
flash flooding in the Bahamas, and flash and urban flooding,
especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas, along the east
coast of the United States. Minor river flooding and isolated
moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas
and mid Atlantic early next week.

5. Tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for portions of
the United States East Coast from northeast Florida to South
Carolina. Additional watches and warnings will likely be issued
on Sunday as Isaias is expected to move northward near or over the
southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 25.5N  79.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 26.6N  79.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 28.0N  80.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...ON COAST
 36H  03/1200Z 29.7N  80.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 32.0N  80.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  04/1200Z 35.3N  78.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 72H  05/0000Z 39.7N  74.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 96H  06/0000Z 47.0N  66.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  07/0000Z 51.5N  57.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Excessive Heat Warnings Issued For Southern, Eastern New Brunswick & Prince Edward Island

3:52 PM ADT Saturday 01 August 2020
Heat Warning in effect for:
Fredericton and Southern York County
Humidex values reaching 36 are expected for the next 2 days.
A period of very warm and humid weather is expected starting on Sunday.
Time span: Sunday through Tuesday.
Maximum temperature Sunday: 31 degrees Celsuis (Humidex 36).
Minimum temperature Sunday night: 18 degrees Celsuis.
Maximum temperature Monday: 30 degrees Celsuis (Humidex 38).
Locations: South, Central and Eastern New Brunswick
Remarks: An approaching air mass will bring hot and humid conditions later this weekend beginning Sunday. Temperatures are forecast to turn cooler over all areas on Wednesday. Temperatures are expected to be cooler near the Fundy coast.
Extreme heat affects everyone.
Seek a cool place such as a tree-shaded area, swimming pool, shower or bath, or air-conditioned spot like a public building.
Never leave people or pets inside a parked vehicle.
Heat warnings are issued when very high temperature or humidity conditions are expected to pose an elevated risk of heat illnesses, such as heat stroke or heat exhaustion.
Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@canada.ca or tweet reports using #NBStorm.

3:52 PM ADT Saturday 01 August 2020
Heat Warning in effect for:
Queens County P.E.I.
Humidex values reaching 33 are expected for the next 2 days.
A period of very warm and humid weather is expected starting on Sunday.
Time span: Sunday through Tuesday.
Maximum temperature Sunday: 29 degrees Celsuis (Humidex 34).
Minimum temperature Sunday night: 19 degrees Celsuis.
Maximum temperature Monday: 28 degrees Celsuis (Humidex 36).
Locations: Prince Edward Island.
Remarks: An approaching air mass will bring hot and humid conditions later this weekend beginning Sunday. Temperatures are forecast to turn cooler over all areas on Wednesday.
Extreme heat affects everyone.
Drink plenty of water even before you feel thirsty and stay in a cool place.
Seek a cool place such as a tree-shaded area, swimming pool, shower or bath, or air-conditioned spot like a public building.
Never leave people or pets inside a parked vehicle.
Heat warnings are issued when very high temperature or humidity conditions are expected to pose an elevated risk of heat illnesses, such as heat stroke or heat exhaustion.
Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to PEstorm@canada.ca or tweet reports using #PEStorm.