Early November Winter Storm Update One

Early November Winter Storm

42
FXUS61 KCAR 062038
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
338 PM EST Wed Nov 6 2019

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front will move to the east this evening as high
pressure builds south of the state tonight. Low pressure
will develop near the coast of Maine on Thursday and track
northeast across the Gulf of St. Lawrence by Friday evening.
Canadian high pressure is expected to build in from the west
into Saturday and then slide offshore Saturday night.

&&.......

........SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

There is better agreement among guidance this afternoon showing
a deepening of the coastal low pressure farther to the east,
and after exiting the adjacent waters. The vorticity maxima
currently over Alberta and Saskatchewan that will act as the
trigger for cyclogenesis will likely round the base of the 500mb
longwave trough after its axis is over Maine, leading to a
neutrally tilted trough over the CWA. The result is a weaker low
pressure, more progressive system, and lower QPF/snow amounts.
Temperatures at the onset of precipitation tomorrow morning will
be well above freezing across the south and near or just above
freezing across the north. Precipitation will briefly start as
rain or a mix for many, before wet-bulbing occurs and the
rain/snow line sinks southward along I-95 between Houlton and
Bangor. A cold front will form along the developing low pressure
and move through the CWA tomorrow night, transitioning
precipitation to a brief period of snow across the south. Around
the same time, the aforementioned shortwave will arrive and
enhance precipitation along the surface front. The highest QPF
amounts are along the coast, which will still be on the eastern
side of the trough axis when the shortwave arrives.

Low pressure will begin to deepen and move northeast over Nova
Scotia and towards Newfoundland Friday. Advection of colder,
drier air and positioning of the best dynamics to our east will
end widespread precipitation. Decreased PoPs and transitioned
stratiform wording to showers after 12z Friday. NW flow,
lingering low level moisture, and perhaps a weak deformation
zone to the west of the low will probably favor at least some
snow shower activity, but current thinking is coverage will be
limited and the 12z NAM is too aggressive with QPF...........

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Caribou ME
848 AM EST Wed Nov 6 2019

MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-071400-
Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-
Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-
Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-
Interior Hancock-Central Washington-Coastal Hancock-
Coastal Washington-Southern Piscataquis-Northern Washington-
848 AM EST Wed Nov 6 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Highlands Maine,
Coastal DownEast Maine, Far Eastern Maine, Far Northern Maine,
Interior DownEast Maine, North Woods Maine and Penobscot Valley
Maine.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...Wind gusts to 40 mph this afternoon...

West winds of 20 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph can be expected into
the afternoon. These winds could lead to sporadic power outages. In
addition to the winds, some snow showers will develop with potential
for low visibilities at times due to the gusty winds.

Motorists are encouraged to use caution when traveling this
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

$$

3:42 PM AST Wednesday 06 November 2019
Special weather statement in effect for:

Fredericton and Southern York County
Rain and snow followed by colder temperatures expected over New Brunswick beginning Thursday afternoon into Friday, with a cold and blustery day in store for Saturday.

A weather system is expected to bring rain to southern New Brunswick beginning Thursday afternoon with snow expected over northern regions, with the rain/snow boundary likely across central New Brunswick. Rainfall amounts of 15 to 30 millimetres are possible over southern sections with 5 to 10 centimetres of snow possible for the northern and central areas of the province Thursday night.

As colder air moves into the province from the north on Friday, flurries or periods of snow could give an additional 5 to 10 centimetres of snow to central and eastern areas of the province. Reduction to visibility could create potentially hazardous driving conditions Friday afternoon and evening.

Saturday will be sunny but remain cold and blustery across the province as temperatures will struggle to reach the freezing mark in many areas.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@canada.ca or tweet reports using #NBStorm.

3:42 PM AST Wednesday 06 November 2019
Special weather statement in effect for:

Halifax Metro and Halifax County West
Wintry weather likely for parts of Nova Scotia Friday night into Saturday.

A weather system is expected to bring some rain to the province Thursday night and Friday. Colder air will usher in behind this system later on Friday and persist on Saturday. As this colder air arrives from the northwest, showers will turn to periods of snow Friday evening which could give local accumulations and potentially hazardous driving conditions especially to the Annapolis Valley, northern Nova Scotia and parts of Cape Breton Island.

Saturday will be a cold and blustery day across the entire province with onshore flurries and temperatures struggling to climb above zero in many areas.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@canada.ca or tweet reports using #NSStorm.

3:41 PM AST Wednesday 06 November 2019
Special weather statement in effect for:

Queens County P.E.I.
Wintry conditions possible across the Island later Friday and persisting into Saturday.

A weather system is expected to bring some rain to Prince Edward Island later Thursday and into Friday. Much colder air and stronger northwest winds will begin moving in from the north later in the day Friday, changing any remaining showers to periods of snow Friday evening which could give local accumulations. Saturday will be a cold and blustery day with onshore flurries and temperatures struggling to climb above zero in many areas.

In addition, there is a possibility of higher than normal water levels during high tide as well as large waves impacting coastlines where northwest winds blow onshore Friday night and Saturday.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to PEstorm@canada.ca or tweet reports using #PEStorm.